Folks This morning, stocks went into buy everything mode. The NASDAQ and S P 5 Hundo broke into yet another new year-to-date high after a newly released key report. Does it make sense to buy everything now? or are markets just going into another Fomo cycle? What is likely to happen next? Well, we'll look at the data and then you be the judge. We will also be ending this video with some plays that are running quite a lot and what you need to know about them, including some ideas for strategies and we will get to work in a second.

But first, a quick plug. We sent out an email report last night at about 8 PM Eastern to all of the folks who have signed up to receive our freezer. Twitter emails cough, cough, link down below. But anyways, the idea that we presented opened pre-market at 3 59 and then it ran to 1089 over the next seven or so hours.

That's about a 203 percent run alert price to highs. So if you would like access to our completely free email reports, make sure to sign up with that first link down below. All you got to do is put in your email there and our next idea and Report come out tomorrow night. Okay folks, so the NASDAQ just broke to another new cycle High alongside the rest of the market this morning and this is largely due to positive news on the inflation front.

Inflation just hit a two-year low and I'm going to go over that in a few minutes. But first, I want to refer you over to this chart. So this of course is the chart of the last three years he had a massive bull rally and then the FED started tightening and boom down like a dog. and then it started climbing up consistently This year, right? and it's been pretty Relentless net since the end of February.

Now I look at this and I'm thinking Hmm my brain says my brain is yelling that stocks are basically priced in Perfection which the underlying companies and economy can't support right now and at the same time they're also pricing in a Fed That is done tightening which again, doesn't seem to be anywhere near the case. And then I look at data showing that this is one of the best years for the market in history and I'm thinking how much longer could this possibly build on that knowing all of the outstanding risk factors. But then I Always have to go back and remind myself that markets are more of a game of human psychology than they are a game of just pure numbers and data. And for that, I like to go to visual capitalist depiction of a market cycle.

You ran through enthusiasm Euphoria and and overconfidence during 2021 and then hit anxiety at the start of 2022. denial Panic Capitulation Agony So where are we now? Well, we can't really be in the agony stage because in agony, stocks are still heading down or just barely beginning to recover If you pull up the chart. we've already been on quite the tear, so I wouldn't argue that the sentiment cycle is just restarting. It's been growing all year, right? What about depression? The herd is indifferent.

as markets inevitably begin their recovery. Are we? in that stage? Are people really indifferent to this rally? Well, well, maybe retail participation hasn't come back. But in terms of Wall Street I mean many of the biggest bears have decided to go full on long because they don't want to miss out on the moves and have to explain to their clients why they haven't gotten any gains this year. What about disbelief though? Charlie Charlie Tow, Well, in disbelief after previous losses, the fear of losing more money outweighs all else.

Is that where we are? or is it uncertainty? The herd hesitates and misses the optimal window to enter the market. Or is it optimism? The herds sentiment begins to warm only after their prices have risen. Which one of these are we in? You can let us know your thoughts down below. But anyways, this morning, I'm looking at these three points and thinking, okay, well, we can't be in optimism yet, because in optimism, you've broken out into a new all-time high.

And while we are close, we haven't gotten there quite yet, right? So I'm thinking we must be in either disbelief or uncertainty and then I'm thinking, well, you're not really quite in a fearful Market either, so this one doesn't really work. I Wouldn't argue that this Market smells fearful at all. and in fact, whatever the FED does or says, well, markets just seem to brush it off. A couple days later.

last year, if Paulo so much has sneezed downward, markets would dump like a duck. So you can't really say there's a lot of fear in this market. It just doesn't smell fearful. So I don't think that we're in the disbelief stage, but the market does.

It does smell uncertain. This is the market. Not so much of fear, but but of hesitation. So my guess is we are probably somewhere in the uncertainty cycle now, depending on what the economic data shows and how the FED reacts to it.

Well, the next Cycles may be my much much shorter lived than the ones we've seen in the past. But it does seem that markets have effectively climbed the wall of worry all year, and they are now trying to get over the wall of uncertainty and hesitation and flip right into optimism. Okay, moving on to inflation. So inflation just hit a two-year low coming in at three percent year-over-year for the month of June.

Remember, just a year ago, the CPI was reporting consumer prices up 9.1 percent year over year for June 2022, and that was the largest increase since November 1981.. now a year later, we were all the way down to three percent. That's a pretty pretty big drop getting way way closer to the Fed's two percent. Target We're very, very close right now now.

Remember that the 9.1 inflation number from last year is still baked into current prices and that's not going back. But but when you're looking at the year-over-year trend, since then, that has dropped substantially. We may have gone up 9.1 percent year over year from June 2021 to 2022, but that's that June 2022 number. We're only up about three percent.

and that is the price change that the FED cares about. When Powell says Cooper percent, you're over a year. He's talking about that. Now, if you really want to understand why markets rallied so much though, you have to, you have to look at the estimates versus the actual reporting going in today.

Each line came in lower than expectations. CPI Growth month over month was expected to come in at 0.3 percent. It came in at 0.2 percent Core: Same thing expected: 0.3 percent came in at 0.2 percent. year over year Expected: 3.1 percent came in at three percent core CPI Year over year Expected: Five percent came in at 4.8 percent.

But if you look at the probabilities for a rate hike at the meeting in a couple weeks, they are basically unchanged. Yesterday they were set at 93, a 93 chance of a 25 basis point hike. Today they are at just 92.4 percent. And if you were listening to the Fed and what Powell had said at the last meeting, well, they basically signaled that regardless of what the inflation data was saying, they will continue with several more rate hikes.

In the irony and the irony, of course, is that the Fed was so slow to acknowledge that inflation was a problem that it ended up becoming a massive problem. And in a similar way, the FED is so so slow. And it's going to be so much slower at acknowledging that inflation is no longer a problem that it's probably going to end up causing a big problem since they're raising rates as inflation continues to actually get very, very close to their target. and the rate hikes they've already done haven't been fully factored into the economy.

So you can expect this three percent to go down to two percent very, very quickly. In fact, if you look at the true flation data which includes July so not just June, but July, it already says 2.5 percent. So how many more months until you're at two percent? Now, don't get me wrong, I think it's very, very important and I've said this many, many times in the past that the FED stamps out inflation and make sure it doesn't come back. The problem though, is that the FED doesn't have to raise rates even higher to Stamp Out Inflation rates are already very, very restrictive.

They could just pause here and wait and that would be sufficient. How do you know that? Well, because the rates are way higher than the current inflation rate. Anyways, let us know your thoughts on what the FED is going to do next. Can we expect more hikes? Or are they finished? Finally, let's go over some place.

So we drew a channel on Mara in previous videos and now she's officially broken out of that beautiful Channel again this morning getting to a new cycle high at 18 26. In my view, Mara is going to be an excellent play up until the point that you're getting very close to that share authorization vote because again, the share authorization vote is going to be a really, really, really big funny factor for the stock until it goes through afterwards. I think more will be back in play again. but I think that for people holding through it, it's going to be a rough time.

It's just a level of uncertainty that I'm not super excited about and I think probably you want to avoid it at least a week before that vote and you're getting close to that. So that means that as the stock breaks Higher and Higher and Higher and follows the overall Channel even breaking the top like it just did, then I would say hmm. maybe it makes sense to take some profits off the table Again, depends on your personal situation. This isn't no personal financial advice Mr Charlie Charlie But but that is the way that I see it the other stock that you could look at for setup that doesn't actually have a share authorization vote is Riot It's not as aggressive as a Bitcoin mining play I Actually made a video the other day breaking down the three top ones more Riot and hut Eight.

You can check that out. that was a couple videos ago, but if you just need a Bitcoin miner to play during the time entered, that Maura might be in fuddy-duty zone. Well, Riot should be a top of your radar in my view. And then to cap this video off I Just want to save it.

You're going to start seeing a lot more big squeezes and short squeeze stocks as this overall stock market sees more and more froth. And a great example of this is Cvna. Carvana has really had a loser business model for really the last couple of years as used cars and trucks have been dropping dramatically in value. But Cvna just keeps going and punching shorts in the damn throat and it's pretty damn beautiful.

And these are the types of short squeeze plays that I think are going to get crazier and crazier over the coming weeks. Anyways, folks that caps off today's video make sure to hit that ravishing like button and subscribe. Make sure to sign up for our completely free ZIP Trader newsletter list which we send out via email. Have a good one folks and we will see you in the next video.