Folks, we've got three violent things to discuss: Number one: what today's released CPI report tells us you had some good news, but also some bad news beneath the surface. Number two: why the FED is now officially predicting a recession is going to come this year, and why they believe it's going to take up to two years to recover and maybe even more for ridden between the lines. And number three, we're going to go over the latest on our top trade idea for this week: Madame Jfbr. We broke down Jfbr at 73 cents a share on Sunday here on the channel and a ran to 157 around Market Open Monday and then yesterday in the pre-market hit about 187.

since then it's been in a beautiful testing take profit cycle. And I want to discuss what I see coming next for the stock and today's video is brought to you by the MooMoo trading platform. and Broker Mumu is an incredibly powerful and reliable tool to take your trading to the next level. And if you sign up and deposit with our link down below, you'll get up to 15 free stocks.

Okay, so the Crying People's Index the CPI just came out and good news. Last year's than usual CPI has officially cooled to the lowest level in nearly two years now. at just five percent year over year, we are so desensitized now that five percent sounds good, but quite frankly it is good. Compared to where we were at Three Four Five six months ago, this is a record drop and we're back to where we were in May 2021 month over month, inflationary pressures also cooled down quite a bit, going from a 0.4 percent increase in Feb to 0.1 percent in March largely led by energy pricing pressures turning deeply negative.

Now, unfortunately, OPEC is doing everything in their power to put a floor on these pricing pressures and get them back up. But for the month of March, the cuts haven't been factored in yet. But net this was a somewhat nice win for markets and led people to see in the light at the end of the inflationary tunnel. However, then you get into the situation where the FED minutes came out, the beautiful Fomc minutes and headlines flew everywhere showing that the FED members expect the banking crisis to cause a recession this year.

They say a mild recession, but if you read between the lines, there's nothing mild about what they're just subscribing. And the minute showed that quite frankly, the Fed was a lot more concerned about the banking crisis than they let on. The Kobisi letter on Twitter had a very nice rundown on the FED minutes Released: Number One: Fed officials lower Target interest rate due to banking crisis. Now they believe that the overall terminal rate the target rate that they're going to hit before they start pausing and cutting is going to be much lower than they otherwise had expected.

Number Two: several officials considered pausing rate hikes back in March. They were so concerned that they were already thinking of pausing back in March Now, they didn't go through with it, but they aired concerns right. Of course, in practice, it's very, very possible that if they had gone and paused in March, it would have freaked out markets a lot more because they would have been like, oh, what does the FED see that we don't see The banking collapse situation must be way way worse than they're letting on. Number Three, Fed is now officially projecting a mild recession starting in 2023, and when the FED is actually coming out, they're coming out and admitting and predicting a mild recession.

You know shite is about to hit the fan. They went from no recession to mild recession. Next, they'll be talking about medium shallow recession and then they'll say we're heading for a full-blown economic apocalypse. Number Four: all officials ultimately back 25 basis point hikes in March even though some dissented in terms of the consideration of perhaps pausing Number five, The US government ran a 378 billion dollar deficit in March and the FED highlighted the risks associated with that, especially as we raise rates which increases the cost of borrowing for the country net by quite a decent amount, folks.

But bigger picture here. One of the first things that I think the market is really going to be rallied on is the point that they are making Here with the banking sector, the FED is projecting a banking sector that is not as stable as Janet Yellen has been portraying is not as stable as the mainstream corporate media is portraying is actually the complete opposite. And you have to remember that from the Fed's perspective, they are simply looking at the number of banks running to them to stay liquid and they're like, okay, well, we understand that the media is reporting that banking fear and panic is overblown, but why are banks still coming to us as a last resort to get liquidity at such record rates if banks need Papa had to stay operational. Is the banking sector really that healthy and I would say no to that and Fed members increasingly also are saying no to that.

So again, I Get it the media will say, oh, you have nothing to worry about with banking. Please do not worry, keep your money in places like Silicon Valley Bank And obviously if you ask Bank execs, they say your money is safe too. But if you actually look at what these banks are doing, not just what they're saying, but what they're doing well, they're running to the FED as a last resort lender and they're trying to get as much liquidity as possible because quite frankly, you know it's not too hard to see that they're not doing too good. It's very, very high risk right now.

We're in a very very high risk environment where everybody is just patiently waiting for the next straw to break. Now the other thing that should rattle markets over the coming weeks is this new expectation and really forecast for a likely mild recession. Folks, you know that whenever the FED predicts something, it's almost always going to be way worse than they let on. We all know the story of the boy who cried wolf when there was no wolf.

Well, the FED is the boy that actually saw a wolf but cried puppy. Powell sees a pack of of wolves in the forest and tells us, oh, there's a pack of small puppies heading our way. Prepare accordingly and people, of course prepare accordingly. And what happens while they get eaten? They get eaten by the wolves.

and Palace just like, don't worry, those bites are transitory, but there's no meat left on our bones CNBC Reported this morning Fallout From the U.S Baking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year, according to Federal Reserve documents released Wednesday Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking sector developments, the staff's projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year with a recovery over the subsequent two years. The meeting summary stated: Okay, so let me ask you this question: If this is a mild pansy recession, why the hell does it need two years to recover? Does that sound like a mild recession? It doesn't sound like one to me. Imagine going to a doctor and the doctor says, look, you're not very sick at all. There's not much of a problem here, just a mild cold.

but we think that you should be resting for six months a year two years and just stay in bed for those two years. Does that sound like a appropriate recovery time for a mild called? no, no, it does not. Doesn't sound like one to me and shouldn't do you either. Now listen to what Mizu Security said about the matter for market watch.

the FED always ties until something breaks said. Steven Rakuto U.S Chief Economist at Mizuhu Securities USA In a new note, the key question markets have to answer right now is which type of credit dislocation the economy is dealing with following the Regional Bank debacle. And this folks is the market sentiment. Right now, the FED tightens and tell something breaks and now that something has broken and inflation is going down, both the Fed and markets are expecting the hiking cycle to be near a closing.

Now, the Kobisi letter pointed out something very interesting here. They say the FED continues to paint this picture that interest rate decisions are unanimous. However, in public statements from officials, they almost all disagree on future Fed policy. In other words, the FED wants to appear United in the wake of uncertainty.

So what is this implying? It's implying that there's so many different ideas on what's going on at the FED, But when it comes down to make the actual decision, they have to appear unanimous and hide what they really think under the surface. We which is, there's a ton of dissent and that descent needs to be silenced. There's a lot of conflicting opinions, so you may have dissenting members that raise really, really good points about where policy should be going that then get completely steamrolled over by louder members and more powerful members. Next, number three, let's talk Jfbrso on Sunday My view was hey, this has previous spikability and an overall setup that suggests that given another round of proof of concept, you could easily see similar if not bigger spikes.

And fair enough we've had that you had a massive rally rally till on Monday and then another breakout Tuesday pre-market to 187 for more video price The highs that's about 856 percent run. Obviously hard to get the full run because it had such a Boombastic trading session, but in terms of proof of concept, that's pretty solid and the momentum has held up pretty well overall. It then had a nice aggressive take profit cycle that it bottomed out from bottomed out somewhere around 108 to 109 and then it built some strength over that. This could be the start of another rally rally though that takes us up to the next level.

I Would say tomorrow is the critical time for this to make a new breakout or else we'll probably have to wait until next week because volume does tend to dry up quite a bit on Fridays it doesn't always dry up on Fridays for every small cap, but usually as a general rule of thumb, Fridays are pretty weak. So far though, Jfbr has been a pretty solid call out. With overall momentum still in check, we'll see if this continues that pattern and continues to perform anyways. That caps off today's video.

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