Folks Insanity Incoming and we've got three major things to discuss. Number one: Hedge funds are quietly scaling up their short positions to a decade high before the upcoming inflation reports, the PPI and the CPI and before the upcoming earnings season really gets going this week. Number Two I Need to give you some dates on Market Critical catalysts that are going to be coming this week and into the coming weeks. Preparation is key.

If you're not prepared for these catalysts, you're not going to have a good time. No, no no. And number three, We need to give an update on our top trade idea this week. Our top trade idea Jfbr ran quite a bit today a more than double at highs and triggered some Algas this morning.

You saw this trending on pretty much every single major social media Network that has a sizable trading community on it. You had lots and lots of creators talking about this. You had people spewing about this everywhere. but I believe we were the first ones to call this out.

not to brag or anything like that. But anyways, we will discuss the latest on this and what I see happening next and I'll put all the time stamps down below and before we get into it. I Do want to give a quick plug so as you know, timing in the market is pretty much everything. and if you would like to receive alerts when we have a new top Trade idea or play idea or piece of research, well we have a new option for you.

We now have both email and SMS text alerts that you can sign up with with that first link down below. Of course standard message and data rates apply based on your carrier, but there's nothing that we charge for. On our end, this is completely free. All you have to do is sign up with that first link down below and if you are already on our email list, all you have to do is go down below to that link, hit that type in your email again, and then put your phone number and it'll add it to your account.

Make sure to check that out because I think we're gonna have some pretty exciting plays over the coming weeks. Probably even better than Jfbr. although no promises. Okay, let's go ahead and start with what the hedge funds are doing.

they're positioning Bloomberg Reported the Berg of Bloom just reported hedge funds are reloading on bearish Wagers on U.S equities betting the latest Market Retreat will persist amid worsening economic data and corporate earnings. Large speculators, mostly hedge funds. saw their net short positions in S. P 500e Mini future teachers increased to roughly 321 000 contracts as of Tuesday according to data from the commodity Futures Trading commission.

That's the most bearish reading since November 2011. Following the downgrade of the US's Sovereign credit rating and you could see what that looks like here. Short positioning that's at levels we haven't seen since 2011. hedge funds putting on their big boy shorts expecting more and more pain in the coming weeks.

it's about to get really, really hot because all of these shorts are out. But the fact of the matter is that this short positioning data is very, very fascinating. because the market narrative trying to be sold right now is this idea that hey, things have all stabilized out. Everything is berries and roses.

And that recent bank collapse. Fear that fud it's all over. Everything is fine and dandy. The Fed's just going to keep raising rates and nothing else bad will ever happen.

Nothing else more will break. But regardless of what wall Street's mouthpieces are saying in the financial media and its coverage, well, the fact of the matter is that the big money behind the scenes is betting very, very heavily that things are going to get much, much worse. Got skepticism has grown over the durability of 2023's equity Advance As data on manufacturing and services has added to fears an economic recession could come soon. and with the widely watched inflation day to do Wednesday and banks on Friday kicking off, what's forecast to be the worst earnings season since the depths of the pandemic crisis, bears are doubling down on their bets, the forecast for this earnings season is a mess.

It's a complete mess. And as we talked about last week, the economic data and Manufacturing is just a complete a complete tragedy. It's like we don't even have a manufacturing sector anymore. Yet the media wants to say oh, it's just a small little dip Rising Bearishness is also evident on the long side of the book.

After Chasing a rally in technology shares, hedge funds have turned into sellers unwinding their long positions in the industry at the fastest Pace in 15 months according to Goldman Sachs group. So you've had this Dynamic for a while where Bears have been aggressively short the market for most of the last like 15 months. But there was some debate. At least some debate appears the amount of debate about where we were heading.

Some thought maybe we could head higher, some were trading off the momentum Cycles But but now all of a sudden you're getting a record amount of hedge funds committing to the short side, committing to one narrative and that is down. We're going to go down. But the fact of the matter is I mean there's some real fundamental reasons to be short right now again. Manufacturing and services Terrible situation, earnings, terrible situation, inflation looking to still be very elevated, especially with recent OPEC cuts.

And so if you're a hedge fund right now, that's betting against the market. Hey, you have a lot of fundamental reasons to bet against it. but at the same time, I mean let's be real here. Big money and even Charlie Charlie has been expecting huge breaks to the downside for the last six months plus, but the market just keeps trading within range.

So just because big Money is positioning towards more selling off doesn't mean that they're necessarily right as we've seen many times in the past and we know that markets can rally for many, many months and many, many quarters even if the economy is getting destroyed. So even if the economy is getting to the point where it's completely shut down as we've seen in the past, while markets markets can still rally rallito as long as they see some sort of light at the end of the tunnel. Whether that's whether that's monetary or fiscal policy changes so on, and so forth. it increasingly feels like equities are caught in a channel, one that must believe and are positioned to see break.

On the downside and yet never seemingly does a managing director at Goldman said in a note on Friday The prevalent view seems to be that more things will break on the back of a rapid rise in cost of capital. So again, the market right now is in this channel where enough funds are staying invested in longs to hold up support. but enough bears are keeping it from breaking out expecting more things to break as the FED hikes. And to me, that sounds reasonable if the FED has already broken a lot of stuff, which it certainly has.

Well, if the FED continues to raise rates and keep them elevated, well, what do you think is going to happen, You're going to see more things break. Okay, number two: I want you to go ahead and write down these dates they're very, very key to now. So tomorrow we have several Fed presidents speaking which means more volatility potential Wednesday We have the Fed's latest Fomc meeting minutes released. Lots of key details will be in there specifically in regards to their true thoughts on the banking collapse.

We also have this API coming out or as I like to say the Castration of purchaser's index, the Crying People Index Thursday You have the March PPI coming out, another key inflationary report, the April Jobless Claims release, and the OPEC monthly oil report very very key Friday You have the consumer sentiment data coming out to where consumer confidence is currently at. We're going to find that out. You also have the bank starting to report earnings at the end of the week and giving some key insights into that segment. and then in the coming weeks you're going to start seeing earnings heat up in a massive, massive way.

And finally, number three updates on trade ideas and specifically one the top trade idea for this week Jfbr, which as you may have noticed, has already been quite successful. and as always, our goal here on the Channel with these picks is to give timely research on solid setups. And if you want to hear about these play ideas as soon as possible, make sure to sign up for our free email list and text alerts with the link down below. But anywho, we presented the story on Jfbr yesterday.

But essentially you have this hype play that is entering into the AI space, has a lot of cash on hand and has a long history of Spike ability. and it got picked up across social media late last night and early this morning which I believe caused a lot more hype rallying an interest to form within it. And all of a sudden you have this insane insane pre-market session where the stock essentially moved and look folks when we discuss stocks on the channel, especially if they're very, very good setups that we bring to people's attention. Oftentimes a lot of other creators will go and cover it, they'll be posting about it all over social media, it'll be on Reddit so on and so forth.

Then you'll start having some of the smaller Financial media firms start making articles on it and all of a sudden, before you know it, everyone and their mother is talking about this stock. That does happen sometimes obviously I don't control that I just present stocks that I see as having ripe setups. Whatever other people say about it, that's not my fault. and also just in case we do have region because I want to make sure that we have the best relationship with the viewer for the long term.

We have a rule in our terms of service which are linked down below, but we have a rule that says we won't take positions in small cap stocks we profile unless otherwise disclosed and when I say disclosed I mean very, very clearly disclosed or if it's a sponsored stock will also clearly disclose it. This stock was not sponsored and we don't have a position in it, of course. I Believe that these rules should be industry standard, but but of course they are not. In fact, it's probably the opposite.

But in any case, these are the rules that we follow and we're going to continue to follow this as we work to build this company and as we work to build the relationship with you. But in any case, outside of that social media reach. I Honestly think what happened today was something way, way bigger. There's a lot going on here.

Behind the scenes. some big money was playing with this this morning. You had just some insane Capital flow into the setup. It had a near gap up in the pre-market then it rallied to 128, then it sold off to about 0.98 and then back up to 157 into open.

There were some fun trading opportunities within the pre-market session. If you had a broker that allows pre-market trading like cough Mumu link down below. But but shortly after open you got hit with a circuit breaker and it killed a lot of the momentum and it didn't really break out. Again, it sucked the momentum completely away from the stock.

And quite frankly, while the stock did run a hell of a lot, and our timing of our video last night was pretty perfect, it still wasn't my preferred rally rally toe. I Prefer stocks that have slow and steady buildups, a bit of momentum that slowly builds and accelerates and snowballs like beautiful snowman frosting. Why? Well, because it's easier for a Trader to play, it provides room for more proof of concept. You don't get circuit breakers and it gives more time for the rest of the market to find out about it, and it's just an easier overall setup.

Something that runs for a week and slowly builds and then dumps and then slowly builds. and then dumps is going to be better than something that goes like this. Just much much better of a setup that allows the market to kind of get used to the idea of that momentum and then it just accelerates exponentially versus something that the whole thing happens in like a day. Now with this stock.

I Believe that there's a lot more play here, but I need to see that proof of concept. What I'm looking at now is seeing how well this can retain this level and whether that can prime it for another breakout attempt. Clearly, it's found some support at 120-ish and traded within range the rest of the day. Is that going to be a key level that it holds and breaks out from tomorrow? Or Wednesday Or could we see another take profit cycle that takes us down to 0.97 and then bounces from that? Either way, this continues to be our top trade idea, but again I Want to see that proof of concept proof not promises before.

I make any new projections as to how far this can go like I said yesterday I Was first looking to see if this could break above our redirectional SMA line and break half past the previous rally rally to cycle and today this did both which is great. All we need to see now is proof that this can retain the overall momentum that it achieved today, which is definitely not set in stone. but I think it has a shot and that would be a reasonable basis for assuming the stock could push higher. You see it retain and then you start seeing it pick up again.

Then you got some reasonable basis for it to push higher. Meanwhile, Finvis registers short float for the stock at 21.31 and my guess is those shorts aren't very happy today and they may be even less happy in the future. We'll see as always, make sure you have clear entry and exit plans, make sure you have some really good arrest management. We have a lot of videos on the channel on risk management If you want to learn about how to lock in profits when something is turning against you, when to cut losses.

If you're somebody that's playing a stock and it's already in the red, you don't want to just keep holding it until it hits zero. You want to make sure that you have some sort of exit strategy that's clearly set in place to protect you. And against that, nothing's perfect, but there's things that you can do to minimize your downside risk. Anyways, if you found value in this video, make sure to hit that ravishing like button and subscribe.

Make sure to sign up for our free text and email alerts with the link down below that caps off today's video. Have a good one and we'll see you in the next video.