Folks I Hope you had a fantastic New Year's because now it's 2023 and it's wartime. Three things to discuss: Number one: the extremely unique setup heading into the new Year, number two, Michael Burry's latest prediction, and number three, the top trade ideas and catalysts that you need to know before tomorrow. Let's get right to work. I'll put all the time stamps down below and today's video is brought to you by the MooMoo trading platform and broker.

It's an excellent app to help you take your trading to the next level and they are offering you up to 15 free stocks if you sign up and deposit using our link down below. Okay, so unless you were living under a rock, 2022 was not a good year for stocks. The Financial Times mapped out the performance of stocks and bonds for each year since 1871, and quite frankly, 2022 has been an insane outlier. some of the worst returns ever for folks who have concentration of both stocks and bonds.

Completely brutal. In terms of specifically, the S P 500. we had the worst year-over-year drawdown since 2008, down 19.44 If you go back to 1930, this was rivaled by only a few different years 2008, 2002, 1974, 1937, and the immediate post Great Depression era. Most years, the stock market is very green or on occasion, just very slightly down.

But no, not in 2022. So if you made it through 2022, you made it through one of the worst periods in stock market history. Now moving forward: I Have good news and bad news. The good news is that it's always darkest before the dawn.

Stocks tend to bounce back the most aggressively when the prior year was really read. For example, the historical performance of the S P 500 is at about 9.5 percent after an average year. In years worthy Market is negative. The average return the next year is about 15 down 10 percent or more.

Interestingly enough, is less than average, which is probably because slight drawdowns usually are because the market is in a slow and drawn out collapse. However, after a down 20 percent year, the average performance is at about 27.1 percent, which is insane. Almost 3x the average. Now, we didn't quite meet the cutoff.

For down 20 percent, we were only down about 19.44 But still, the overall data suggests that when the dark passes and the dawn starts, there's going to be massive, massive opportunity. Now folks, that was the good news. Now it's time for the bad news. Now here's the bad news.

The bad news is, we haven't reached Peak Darkness yet. Powwow is consistently dimming the lights and it's getting darker and darker. and we don't know when he's going to turn the lights back on. And quite frankly, even he doesn't know.

So if Powell doesn't know, if the Federal Reserve overall doesn't know, how are we supposed to know? we aren't and nobody else does either. People say that you should only trust what big money tells you. they are the ones that know the truth. Go and bend down and listen to whatever they have to say.

Praise Them! Here are the original predictions though that the biggest banks made for where the S P 500 will be closing at the end of 2022.. Goldman Said 5100 JP Morgan said 50 50. said 5300 Credit Suisse 5200 RBC 5050 D Wells Fargo 4715 Bank of America 4600 Morgan Stanley The Stanley's of Morgan 4400 City 4900 UBS 4850 Barclays 4800 And where did the S P actually end at? Where? Well, 3839. What does that mean? It means that none of them were anywhere near right.

To get to Goldman's prediction, we'd have to Rally another 32 percent higher. The stock market is the blind leading the blind while everyone is pretending to be able to see and Jerome Powell is sitting in his chair spinning in circles. The only way to grow in this market is to think for yourself and think bigger picture. The market is chaos and Randomness but if we can see the bigger picture, we can take advantage of the opportunities that may come.

You don't win a war by predicting the outcome of each battle. You win a war by planning ahead and being prepared for all outcomes, right? 2023 is our year to do that. Now is not the time for a retreat. Now is also not the time to blindly go on the offense.

Now is the time for strategic and targeted guerrilla warfare. There's going to be opportunities with Dip Eyes. This year there's going to be short squeeze candidates, There's going to be hype plays, There's going to be swing trades in Commodities that last two or three weeks there's going to be a lot of opportunity. Now, don't get me wrong, there's going to be a lot more people leaving the market this year.

If you thought 2022 was bad and depressing and disappointing, Well, for a lot of people, 2023 is going to be a lot worse. There's going to be a lot of people closing down their businesses or giving up. This year, there's going to be a lot of people that are depressed and sad and decide to just do nothing but complain about things that they can't control and I don't blame them. But while they are complaining and feeling lost, this is the time we doubled down and we built.

2023 is the year we stop caring about what the market does and we start caring about what we do. So what's going to be the biggest opportunity? Well take this tweet from Michael Burry, which gives a good context. He tweeted Out quote inflation peaked, but it is not the last peak of the cycle We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in the second half of 2023 and the U.S in recession. By any definition key.

Here is any definition, right, not a definition that the government can just go and redefine every time they need to win an election. Fed will cut and government will stimulate and we will have another inflation. Spike It's not hard so he is saying several things here. He's saying number one: that inflation has peaked for the moment and is heading much lower and possibly negative in the second half of 2023 when the U.S will be in a recession.

But he's then saying the FED will cut and government will stimulate. This will cause what to happen? a huge Resurgence of stimulation back into the economy and another coveted recovery style boom. But then what's going to happen? Another post covet style inflationary? Spike So Reading between the lines here, one of the biggest opportunities if you believe in this narrative, which I do is going to be around the deepest parts of the recession right before or even slightly after it. after the Fed and government start giving that green light and start stimulating again.

Now a lot of people say, but Charlie the market doesn't always. you turn right after a Fed pivot. True, but it depends on the degree of the pivot. If The Fed raises rates so high that it stamps out inflation fast.

It'll crash the economy even faster. and then we've got to get rebuild out in a massive, massive way. And that's going to be a big stinking deal, because pretty much every metric is showing stocks getting to levels that are historically cheaper and cheaper. Obviously, the median price.

the sales ratio of the NASDAQ 100, while still elevated, is at some of the lowest levels that we've seen in the last couple of years, but still has a lot farther down to go. which means great deal. Chachinga Ford PES for the S, P, 500, 400 and 600 are some of the lowest we've seen in decades of course. A big part of that is that earnings estimates have been slowed to be adjusted while prices have come down.

But eventually we'll get to a point where stocks have sold off even more and earnings start up trending again and it's going to be an insane deal. Next trade idea. So one of the biggest opportunities in this first month of the year is going to be in the FDA segment. For example, we capped off 2022 with an insane winner Madame Kola We briefed on this FDA play at roughly 6 41 a share on Wednesday morning and since then it's run to 45.70 Even since the public video was posted, it's more than tripled.

Obviously not all of our trade ideas work out they are ideas based on our research on current catalysts and Trends, but this one did very very well. up 612 percent briefing price the highs in a few day trading session. Now we reflected on this more fully on Friday's video, But the five second rundown is the reason it ran up was because the FDA okayed their end application for their Pced treatment, which is for treating a certain defect of the cornea. This means that they can move to the next phase of their trials and get closer to full approval.

Now, that combined with the fact that the stock had been assumed basically Dead on Arrival caused this massive Ricochet effect that saw prices to Skyrocket Now you won't see me ever very excited about the future for a stock that has already run up some 600 plus percent in a short amount of time. Even my non-existent five-year-old Son Charlie Jr would say hey, that's unsustainable and this time is no different. My guess is the excitement for call that is going to be dead after this long New Year's weekend and at most it sees a final pre-market pop and then dump. Call the dumps early this coming week and where it finds support is most important for judging if there's a new immediate rebound opportunity.

You dip to the previous legs lows you're at around 23 bucks and you can easily see another attempt to a new high. You dump another leg down to 13.25 and that's a bit more iffy. but I think the bigger picture is Kala is going to poop out soon and it'll be done until the next. Catalyst I Would not fomo in at this point.

We know investors and Traders have no interest in holding Capital intensive biotech companies with or without FDA green flags in this market environment. It's not going to be long before people say Okay Cola is old news. Let's sell it and buy canned soup for this coming apocalypse. Remember this: FDA Acceptance that people are excited about allows face to be trials to start this quarter, which means data on whether or not it's successful probably won't come out until Q1 of 2024.

And according to the National Library of Medicine and their stats, the percent advantage of drugs and therapies that make it from phase two to phase three are only 58.3 percent. And of the ones that actually made it to phase three, the ones that make it further to approval or only 59. In other words, there's a slim chance that the speculators fomoing in on this news and sitting on huge gains are going to be holding out for another year. Plus, for a small chance of getting that approval, they will be gone at the first sustained sign of weakness, the first sign that the momentum is gone once the stock dies down and erases most of this current gain.

There may be other catalysts that pop up, but for now, I'd lean on avoiding this like the plague. That said, the overall lesson that I'm taking away with this call a play is that FDA news plays are going to be hot again heading into 2023.. Now, if you'd like to keep up to date with the morning, Catalyst We are watching each and every morning. We offer that as part of membership to Zip Trader you coupon code hello 2023 will get you a discount for New Year's But in terms of FDA plays: I've got a free before you I usually post these only in Zip Trader you but here are the dates for some of the upcoming FDA drops that you should know about: January 11th you have the fat FDA approval decision date January 15th you have the Acer decision date January 19th you have the Sgen decision date January 20th you have the Gmda decision date and January 25th you have the ions decision date.

Now, oftentimes the FDA will drop catalysts on random days for phase trials. But in terms of the Holy Grail while the Holy Grail are these FDA approval decision dates because those tend to be an opportunity where you get a lot of pre-anticipatory runs before the decision and if they get approved, you can often get a huge reaction right afterwards. Now generally speaking, the strategy that we preach with this in Zip Trader you is to play the move separately because we don't know whether or not it's going to get approved or not. So if you see the right setup in the pre-anticipatory period hey, that's great.

You can play the run up to that and then the post reaction run. You can play separately. That way you only play when you see that proof of concept and you have risk management. You get in, you get out, and then you go running home to Sally Now next overall Market y Wide catalysts Wednesday You have the ISM Manufacturing Index This is a nice monthly survey of private sector company manufacturing and can give a pretty useful economic indication in terms of what's going on behind the surface.

You also have the Job Openings report and then probably most importantly, you have the Fomc minutes release, which tends to always correlate with very outsized volatility and some crucial details if you're trying to factor in what the Fed's going to do next. Thursday You have the ADP employment report and an update on the trade deficit. Friday You have the factory Orders report where a slight decline is expected and then you have the unemployment rate and updated employment data out. These days you pick up a quarter in the street and they say oh my gosh, Biden's so good He created a new high-paying job.

so obviously the jobs data is pretty damn curved. but it does give you an overall picture of what's going on. And then you have the Richmond in Atlanta Fed presidents giving speeches. Anyways, folks, it's going to be an extremely fun start to the year.

There's going to be a lot of opportunities. Keep your eyes open and get ready for battle.