Folks Violence! We've got three major things to discuss. Number One Markets just radically flipped on what they are expecting the FED to do next. I Want to go over the data and what it means, including updates from the biggest banks. Number Two Deutsche Bank Yaya Deutsche just made a new bold prediction and we need to discuss it because it signals something huge is going to happen soon.

Number Three: We're going to discuss the latest on plays, including our Cosm play which was a huge win today. What do you need to know? Let's Get Right to Work timestamps Down Below and today's video is brought to you by zip Trader you and our 60 off Black Friday coupon code which expires at midnight tonight. This is of course your last chance to get 60 off our one-time fee for Lifetime access to our program coupon code block 60 and our program right now includes our step-by-step lessons, our private chat, our daily morning briefings, our full price Target list and all other trading resources which you can learn about using our link down below. We have one Black Friday sale a year and it's always the biggest of the year, so something to keep in mind if you are considering joining.

Okay, let's go ahead and start with Market expectations. So markets are expecting a friendlier fed markets are now expecting a few more rate hikes and then we start with the cuts: 50 basis points in the December 12th meeting, 25 basis points in the February meeting 25 basis points in March and then a final 25 basis point hike in May and then look at this here: A Pause a pause in June and then get this a 25 basis point cut in July, a 25 basis point cut in September, a 25 basis point cut in November December and then in January 2024 as well. If you do the math, this means that markets expect the hiking cycle to cap out somewhere around the 500 to 525 basis point range, and then immediately after one pausing month, you switch into cutting a full on fed pivot and by the end of January 2024, you've already had five consecutive Cuts. Now one side of this is actually more bearish than we've seen in Prior estimates it's projecting.

Hikes are going to extend out past that March meeting into May, which is one meeting more than previously expected, but at the same time markets are project Dean as well that hikes are going to get cut pretty rapidly. Remember just one CPR report Ago markets were expecting the FED to raise rates to the restrictive region of around 500 basis points and then just keep it there for a year plus and then start cutting this Swift turnaround is a bold, bold prediction for Market participants that either the economy is going to be so bad that the FED will have no choice but to re-stimulate or that inflation is going to drop so steadily that the FED will want to get back down to less restrictive rates to support growth again now. I Of course, think that you need the first in order to get the second. I Think you need to land the plane before you get the fires on its wings put out.

But either way, markets are now pushing this new Fed narrative right. and a lot of this is due to not just the latest inflation data showing slowdowns, but also this line. The line I'm about to show you in the latest Fed minutes that were just released last week quote. In addition, a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate.

Of course, talking about raid hikes, a few members also apparently comment that quote slowing the pace of increase could reduce the risk of instability in the financial system, which was counterbalanced then by some others warning that we need to move into a more restrictive Zone But it does seem that the tides are turning. It does seem that markets are thinking that the terminal rate is going to be achieved later in 2023 than originally predicted, but that the cut is going to happen a lot earlier. The pivot is going to happen a lot earlier than was previously predicted. Now, if you are watching to see how this Fed's low down narrative evolves I Want to go ahead and give you some dates to know about number One First on.

Tuesday Tomorrow we have the Consumer Confidence report coming out. Wednesday We have the ADP employment report coming out and Powell is going to be giving a speech at the bookings. Institute Thursday You have the Pce price index which is the next inflation report, and Friday you have the November employment report and new unemployment rate out. So this week we have a consumer report, an employment report, another inflation report, and some lip service from Pow Pow, and also some other Fed members which I haven't mentioned.

Some other Fed members are going to be speaking throughout the week. So lots of lip service and lots of different reports. All of these if you want to understand how the Market's going to be trading this weekend in the coming weeks, you have to watch these events because all of these are either going to reaffirm the trajectory that markets are projecting, make them even more true, or if Powell comes out and he says no, we're not cutting in 2023 at all. Obviously, that is going to have a massive, massive Panic effect on the stock market, right? Because now they're factoring that in and the FED hasn't actually even indicated that they're going to cut in 2023.

So this is something that markets have completely decided. but the FED hasn't really paid much lip service to that specifically, so there is definitely a lot of room for rug pulling on that next. I Want to go ahead and discuss earnings, recession risk, and timeline. We are moving from a market fixated on what the FED is going to be doing to a market that is going to be fixated on what the FED has already done which of course is destroy earnings quote.

Stock markets are in for a wild ride next year as they don't yet reflect the risk of a U.S recession. According to strategists, at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank Deutsche Banks analysts expect the S P 500 index slopped to 3250 points 19 percent below current levels in the third quarter. As a recession begins before rebounding in the fourth quarter, you go over to Seeking Alpha Deutsche's note stated that we now see the S P 500 ending 2022 at 4200 and in 2023 for Q1 at 4500, Q24500, Q3 3250 and Q4 4500. Just to go ahead and help you better visualize this, I-1 and I put this in a table today.

the S P 500 trades at 39.92 They are projecting that it ends of the year at 4200, which is another 5.21 percent up. Then by the end of Q1 of 2023, you hit 4 500, which is another 7.14 percent up. Then you stay flat by the end of Q2 and then in Q3 you get the disaster a drop to 32.50 a 27.78 dump. But then by Q4 you get this massive rebounding quarter of up 38.46 percent and you're back at 4 500.

Which I mean if you're seeing 38.46 up in the SCP 500, just imagine. Just imagine, what you'd be seeing in Tech or growth plays multiples of that. This would be open season. And keep in mind that the S P 500's all-time highs were above 4 800.

So you're still not even at all-time highs even after this kind of recovery. so you still have some ways to go if you were to make a new high. Now, What is responsible for this massive dip in recovery that seems reminiscent of what we saw after the 2020 crash? That V-shaped recovery. While this Q3 is when Deutsche Bank expects the recession to be in full force in this environment The Firm projected that markets will most likely be down significantly with the S P hitting 3250.

As for Q4 of 2023, The Firm sees a quick recovery with the major averages bouncing back from the recession lows. So here you have the Bank of Deutsche Yaya Deutscha saying we have a couple more quarters of a bear Trend And then all of a sudden the earnings recession really is going to start setting in and then boom, you're going to get insane Panic selling. Then by Q4 it reverses and reverses massively. Why? Well, if you go back to the earlier part of this video, we talked about fed expectations right? Q 2-3 When Deutsche Bank thinks you're going to have that recession in full force, well that starts July 1st.

But by the end of that same month, the FED is also expected to start cutting rates for the first time, right? So you have this massive recession in Q3 and the FED is just starting to cut rates and after the market has done, it's 38 sell-off by the end of September. When Q3 concludes, you've already got two small rate cuts under your belt and you're primed for a balance as you prepare for the next three consecutive rate. Cuts So the FED pivots, the market continues dropping. But once you've started stacking up those small tiny little cuts and once people are already in Peak fear mode, Well, all of a sudden people start expecting hey, now we're getting a sizeable Fed pivot and a re-stimulation of this economy.

What you Bake seems to be making the argument that Q3 is when all hell is going to break loose and you finally get a bottom in the stock market. And then all of a sudden the FED finally starts reinvigorating the market and starts re-pumping in capital. And because of that that things really accelerate back to the upside in Q4 in quite a historic fashion. By the way.

I Mean, if we get this run, this might be one of the best buying opportunities and certainly trading opportunities of our lifetimes. Finally, the latest on trades. We'll start with Cosm. so Cosm was a big play and we originally briefed on it in zip: Trader You had about 20 cents a share last week and it ran about 110 that day and we covered it on the channel back last Tuesday night and then once it broke out to 66 cents, it had a take profit cycle and we covered the rebound opportunity over this past weekend and today we got a nice 35 run towards the end of the session.

So what is my thought process on this bad bad boy moving forward? Well, well remember a big reason that I liked this play in the first place was because of its skyrocketing short interest and the fact that short interest as a percentage of free float is probably around 80 to 90 percent. And what happens when your float is really, really tight and shares are rallying doing little ralitos well, it can have an exponential effect, especially as you go into newly. Uncharted Territory That's why some of the big, biggest, most concentrated moves happen right after you get a breakout just like you had here because it forces a liquidity Crunch and that causes a squeezy mix squeezy this time around. Bulls Are rallying up the stock hoping for a similar run to that 45 to 66 move that we had just last week.

This is what it looks like when you get a massive liquidity. Crunch And this is what they want again now, but they have to break it out to a newer, high and unchartered territory in order to reveal that lack of liquidity at those levels and the massive pressure you put on short Sellers And yes, it did just break the previous high and so if it does manage to hold momentum and break out again in the next few trading periods, you'll get yourself very rapidly into really insane trading ground if it dumps and then holds and then breaks out. That's fine too, but it does certainly need to show some proof of concept within the next two or three trading periods in order to really stay relevant. I Don't think this has several more weeks left in it I Think it probably has a week and if it can't break out in the next couple of days three days max.

and I Just see this fading away in today history books and finally in that so Mmat is is indeed cooling off that redirectional SMA line. Though it hasn't erased the previous move and thus continues to hold overall momentum. but my thought process on this quite frankly is let it cool down. Watch for it to maintain overall momentum, but allow it to cool down some and become irrelevant even for some trading periods because the bigger opportunity is going to be a little bit more down the road, it's going to be the last few days before these different Catalyst dates.

Anyways, folks that caps off today's video I Hope you found value in it if you did. Make sure to hit that ravishing like button and subscribe. And of course, if you want to take advantage of our Black Friday sale before it expires at midnight tonight or rather, one minute before midnight tonight, make sure to hit that link down below. Check out the program and type in coupon code black60 before checkout.

Anyways, that caps off today's video. Have a great rest of your day and we will see you in the next one.