Folks, brace yourselves because the market situation is about to get a lot more violent and a lot more dire. Three things to cover: Number one: the big money Algos are positioning to dump massively I Want to reveal where the trigger points are and what would make them reverse coarse? Number two: many major banks are pulling the fire alarms and signaling that next year's Market will be substantially worse than 2022s, with some of them predicting 20, 30, 40, or even 50 percent more downside from current pricing. Finally, number three, we are going to discuss the most important trades to know about, including our Mmat play, which has so far been a massive success and finally hit 2 30 this morning. Let's get right to work and I will put all the time stamps down below And today's video is brought to you by our Black Friday sale on Zip Trader You get 60 off our one-time fee for Lifetime access when you type in Black 60 before checkout zip Trader you membership includes our step-by-step lessons, our daily morning briefings, our private chat, our full price Target list and all other trading resources offered in the program.

This is of course the biggest sale that we've ever had and the cheapest you've ever been able to join the team, so make sure to consider it before that coupon code expires which will be shortly after. Black Friday Okay, so we just came off an overall several week bear Market rally that just barely missed fulfilling the pattern confirmation of breaking our beautiful red directional SMA You had markets Riding High specifically on some good, positively positive news on the inflation front expectations for Fed Hawkishness easing as a result of that and some of the biggest overall reports just simply behind us. However, excitement seems to be dying pretty fast. You go over to what I managed to find from Nimura's latest CTA estimates.

You look at where the Algos are positioned to buy in mass and the estimate is at about 4247 for the S P 500 with the S P 500 being at 39.50 ish as of midday today. That's a relatively large ways to go before you start getting any kind of buy orders another 7.5 percent or so up before you get the Algos helping you again. the next wave of algo driven buy orders don't come into the picture at all and accelerate. Write the moves to the upside until you not only break that red directional SMA but also get really close to Breaking past that previous Peak which is a big ask and I mean it does make sense though once you've gotten to this point hither, Algos are incentivized to buy simply because if they can push it over the Finish Line over the previous Peak, they can front run the rest of the market which triggers into buy after each new higher high.

Every time you get a breakout past previous Peaks, more and more of the market is convinced of a longer winded reversal Unless you get significant buying pressure from all over the place and now goes novice. So every time you get close to a peak, they try as hard as they can to push it over the Finish Line thus effectively front running the rest of the market. However, based on the current positioning, it seems like that is the minority case scenario. On the other side, you have the sale Zone Where Algos are positioned to dump massively and where is that? That's at 38.67 which as you can see if we plot it on the chart is actually a lot closer than the buy area is and it's only like two and a half percent down from where we are currently wait.

Two percent, not even two and a half percent. Two percent. So Algos are positioned much much more tightly to sell than they are to buy. They are open to both in some sense, like they're always open to both, but much, much more biased towards the sell side.

They are keeping their eyes open for momentum, but being very, very cautious and that is a really, really rough setup because markets are going to be very, very anxious thinking, hey, wait a second. If you just get a couple bad days, you're gonna get a massive swarm of sell orders from all these CTA funds from all these massive Algos And these are just the estimates on the ones that we see. There's a lot more behind the surface that we can't see and that number can't bring us. If you're somebody that is trading the trend this week, this is something that you need to know because if all of a sudden you see the S P turned back to an area that resembles these cell zones, well don't be surprised if all of a sudden a massive, massive, massive rug pull happens.

We're talking a day where you get another three or four percent down, followed by some other days where you get more sell-offs. That's usually what it looks like when these Algos are triggered. Anyways, you move over to the investors surveys. We just got some new data from B of A Global Research on what expectations are for the next 12 months, and the overwhelming consensus right now is for below Trend growth in the global economy and above Trend inflation.

Which is another way of saying we are going to at minimum, see more of what we are already seeing, but to the worsening side on both measures, it's going to stretch into a more obvious form of stagflation. And while the expectations for the slightly better scenario of below Trend growth and Below Trend inflation are picking up a bit, it's still a pretty trivial amount. On the bright side though, One I Do have to tell you when I'm surprised. oil prices continue to go down, which is pretty shocking to me, but is very very good news.

We are now at a new cycle low at 75 bucks, 75 bucks a barrel, that's a pretty decent drop from May when we were at 122 bucks a barrel. I was arguing that a big reason that inflation would stay very, very stubborn and Plateau at high rates is specifically because it's very, very difficult for the FED to fight oil prices. But what we are seeing right now is that oil prices have stopped up their rally and have consistently been dropping week over week over week. You know, if this continues to be true, this is a huge help for the inflation front.

Why are oil prices dropping? The Financial Times reports quote oil prices fell sharply in the week as mounting concerns about weakening fuel demand in China outweighed fears that Russian Supply could drop next month when tighter EU sanctions on its crude exports come into Force. So this is largely being caused by expectations that China's economy is going to slow down dramatically, and thus the demand that China is going to impose on the global supply of oil is going to drop and so prices are going to come down specifically. today. you also have OPEC plus considering a production increase of up to 500k barrels a day, which is a very, very good reversal.

Although don't be fooled into thinking they're Saints I mean they just cut production of oil by 2 million barrels a day just last month. So the idea that they're going to increase it by 500k a day while welcome is really not that great of a deal. And despite investors expecting above Trend inflation and Below trend and growth, they are also expecting the dollar to weaken substantially. Investors boosted short positions on the reserve currency to 321 000 contracts last week the most since July 2021, and this is a very, very large and abrupt reversal as you can see to that overall trajectory that we followed the last 18 months.

So why are fund managers starting to reverse course on this well? Because they are starting to expect that the FED has already reached or is close to reaching maximum hawkishness? The dollar trade is only hot. If The Fed consistently decides to draw in capital into it by raising rates and projecting more and more and more hawkishness the minute that the FED has reached maximum hawkishness. All of a sudden, the dollar trade that Capital starts pouring back out of the dollar and finds other areas that could be ripe for uptrending. Now, this reversal of the trajectory in the dollar trade doesn't seem to be reversing the bearishness in the stock market.

Too much big firms are dropping expectations for 2023. Very, very fast. The sacks over at Goldman and just said this: The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached. They said that a peak in interest rates and lower valuations reflecting recession are necessary before any sustained stock market recovery can happen.

So They are saying, hey, we can't get a bottom until the peak in interest rates is in and valuations are actually reflecting a recession. And for people that say oh, the stock market is already factored in a recession No, no, no. If you look at forward earnings estimates, the Wall Street consensus is that firms will make even more money in 2023 than they did in 2022, which means they are not factoring in a recession in any sense of the word, just a Slowdown in year over year growth. But still, they're expecting firms to make more money next year than they did this year.

Which to me sounds ridiculous because obviously rates are going to be significantly higher, the consumer is going to have a lot less buying power, Consumer Debt is going to be a lot more expensive, debt is going to be maxed out, and of course, consumers are going to have a lot less personal savings. So Goldman went, and they cut their forecast for the S P 500 to 4000 for year end 2023, which basically means flat year over year. On the bright side, though, they also think that it's going to dive a lot more in the early year, which means that there's a lot a lot of rebound opportunity that we're going to see. Quote: We expect markets to transition into a hope a hope phase of the next bull market at some point in 2023, but from a lower level than we are at currently, the initial rebound from the trough is likely to be strong.

a little strong salamander in common with the beginning of most. Cycles Before transitioning into a post-modern cycle with lower returns, they are saying here, hey, Bulls you are wrong. We are actually going to see a lot a lot more dipping into 2023, but then you're going to have an aggressive and aggressive comeback and that is going to be where the opportunity is. However, because the dip is going to be so low on the trough, so low.

Well, guess what, after that aggressive comeback, you're still going to be flat year over year. So they're kind of saying here: wait if you want to make money in the next year. Plus, you want to wait to buy the dip right, you want to go and employ your capital most after the sell-offs that we see in 2023. But next year, 2023 is going to be the most important period of time, because after 2023 ends, you're no longer going to have that aggressive rebound, right? You're going to have a more normative Market condition where returns are lower, returns are slower, and markets are a lot more quiet for years in the future, right? That's what they're saying here.

At least you go over to the Stanleys of Morgan They have a similar view that stocks will end 2023 almost unchanged, but they also see a big decline happening in the first quarter. Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson sees the S P 500 dumping as low as to 3 000 points in the next three months of the year. a drawdown of 24 more Quote: What's yet to be priced in is the earnings risk and that is what ultimately will serve as the Catalyst for the market to make new price lows Again, Here you get that earnings recession talk right. Because an earnings recession has not yet been factored into market prices because again, firms have not wanted to adjust them downward for one reason or the other, they have not wanted to adjust them downward.

And so once you start seeing them adjust downward and realize that earnings are coming in and Below expectations, that's when you get prices reflecting the earnings, recession and overall recession. Not Financial Advice and not a financial advisor. but my biggest suggestion to you going into the next two years is stop focusing on what to invest in, but learn how to hunt, learn some basic survival skills, because quite frankly, I mean we're only a few hundred basis points away from living like prehistoric humans did, while a lot of folks are trying to sell this small little pansy growth as an indication and really a guarantee that the economy is going to the moon and going to start booming massively in 2023. The S P Analysts: while they're taking the perspective that this was more of a last hurray than an indication of what lies ahead.

sounds so stupid. But I cannot begin to tell you how many analysts look at higher and higher rates, look at slower and slowing consumer spending, look at maxed out debt, and record low personal savings, and conclude oh, I Think that this all means that next year is going to be even better better than this year. In my very scientific opinion, Any any analyst that suggests that 2023 is going to be a booming year with all of these data points, well, they must have simply been dropped on the head as a baby probably several times. Whoops.

Oh no. Butterfingers Johnny fell on the ground and then 20 years later, what happens, he becomes the lead editor of CNBC Okay, let's go ahead and move over to trades and specifically M Matt the M of Matt So Mmat has been a huge success so far. For context, we started briefing on this bad bad boy in Zip trade are you a bit too early? Back on October 13th it was showing proof of concepto and the setup overall showed the potential for a more massive downside, but that was at about 110 ish a share and then it sold off and started gaining momentum very very slowly. It went from 110 to 1 8 and then another down cycle to 125-ish On the 7th we made a video while it was trading at 142 and I gave my trajectory prediction on where M Matt would head after the sell-off cycle was completed and we got exactly that.

And then about six days ago we made the full breakdown video at about 171 I should share and since then two highs it ran up another 34 percent. which so far this stock has provided several rounds of huge trading opportunities. but more importantly, proof of concept. And since that first briefing price in this overall cycle, we did get a more than double on the stock, which is very, very solid, especially in this market condition, right? However, I continue to see value in the setup.

It's continuing to show that beautiful proof of concept and my thought process is. Mmat's history suggests that it tends to have very very aggressive one or at maximum two-day moves to the upside and then over the coming days the momentum dies off and it cools down before the next move is activated. So look for this move here to cool down, especially heading into the end of the week. which makes sense because it's going to be a slowed down week since Thursday the market is closed and Friday is a short period of trading because of Thanksgiving and so on and so forth.

But after the cooldown that I'm expecting the next massive opportunity will be when it starts showing proof of concept from wherever it bottoms out at. And as part of the S1 agreement which has just been approved, Shorts have about 15 days to cover and Matt's specialty shares listed as Mmtlp which creates an opportunity for both stocks to be relevant Battlegrounds over the next two weeks. So I think you're going to be hearing about Mmat a lot, but wait, wait for it to dump and start showing ability to hold resilience and then start building on top of that, which is that beautiful proof of concept. Now if you are somebody that wants to get access to our daily morning briefings and be the first to hear about the trade ideas as we identify them, then make sure to check out Zip Trader you down below.

We do have our black 60 60 off coupon code which will be expiring shortly after Black Friday so make sure to take advantage of that while you can. I'll put the link down below, read over everything that we offer and see if we are a good fit to help you reach your trading goals. Anyways, folks, make sure to hit that ravishing like button and subscribe and we will see you in the next video.