Folks Insanity In coming in today's video, we've got three major things to discuss. Number one, the top three trades with very specific catalysts coming this week, we will go over the exact dates the catalysts are going to be occurring and the overall setups on each, including one of our plays that doubled on Thursday Number Two, the market-wide events that are going to be occurring this week including a new inflation report, and last but not least, we will be discussing the market setup and whether this bear Market rally will continue. What does the data suggest and what are the latest threats that we have to be aware of And today's video is brought to you by Zipraderu and our 60 off black 60 coupon code. Lock in lifetime access today at the massively reduced rate.

Okay, so I want to go ahead and start today's video with a small cap? Fsrd This stock is a great lesson on both risk management, but also a certain type of opportunity that just keeps popping up. For context, we briefed on Fsrd roughly 30 minutes prior to market open on Thursday morning. At about 18 cents a share, it ended up running to 32 cents, which was a 77 percent increase. Now they say that everybody is a genius in a bull market or in this case, a bull day, but at the same time, not everybody is smart enough to lock in profits right? In fact, most people on a bold day they say, oh, it's running hey, let's just keep holding aimlessly I ain't no paper hander so they go into a position they have no risk management.

They have no idea of when they're going to lock in profits, so then when it runs of course. Inevitably, they end up just giving up that game the next day. But if you were trading a big runner in the small cap space, you should only go into the position with a clear understanding of why you're in it in the first place and an exit strategy to either lock in profits or if it goes against you, cut losses quickly. That Exit Plan could entail a stop loss, a break of an SMA or whatever other consistent point of exit you've committed to, but it needs to be clearly made and clearly followed.

It never ceases to amaze me how many people are more interested in saying they've held a stock for 30 years versus actually going in and getting a profitable position on a stock. It's so much more important to have a risk managed position that it is to say on Twitter that oh, I didn't paper hand. Oh, you can respect me because I let other people dump on me. But anyways, how did we find Fsrd and what does it reveal about new opportunities in today's market? Well, we found it because it was showing a proof of concept contrarian rally.

After receiving a favorable Court ruling in their bankruptcy filing, they announced that the U.S Bankruptcy court for the District of Delaware had approved all of the first day motions related to the company's voluntary Chapter 11 petitions filed on November 7th, 2022. This ruling allows the company to continue operations. And so there's this: Dynamic with Fsrd and other small caps where they have been beaten down so massively on bankruptcy filings and hearings and short selling in regards to that. and then when you get a favorable decision that allows them to operate with some semblance of normalcy, Well, all of a sudden they tend to have massive, massive positive reactions.

Now, of course, they barely ever last because it's a bankruptcy stock whose business model is probably eventually going to die anyways. But if you catch the announcement early enough, you can at least play the initial reactions which tend to be quite juicy. Juicy make juicy juicy. Now moving forward though, Fsrd has another hearing set for tomorrow: November 14th.

The court will consider the company's sale and marketing procedures, which lay out the timeline and criteria for bids to be received, including a proposed deadline of December 5th 2022.. this is the latest Catalyst to be aware of. Put this on your radar tomorrow morning if it shows proof of concept. If it doesn't discard it like a dog, not like a dog, we keep dogs in good condition.

We don't discard dogs. Now if you need help becoming aware of catalysts and potential trading grounds, we do provide that service as part of zip. Trader U as part of the program each morning 30 minutes prior to Market open, we release a complete briefing with the specific catalysts for that morning and that includes not just the Catalyst that we see as the most opportune and have specific Battleground trade ideas in terms of what is a long setup and what is a short setup, but also we cover things like upcoming FDA dates, upcoming IPOs that could be very volatile and provide trading opportunities outside the volume stocks so on and so forth which is very, very useful. It's kind of like somebody goes to battle and gives you a map of where the battles are and then you can decide for yourself which battles you'd like to play.

I Will go ahead and put a link to our program down below so you can learn more about it, but our coupon code black60 is now active and you will get 60 off if you join us soon. Black Friday is always our biggest sale of the year and this year is no different. Okay next Dwac and Fun! So we briefed on the Trump related Dwac and Fun early last week on Monday before midterms because of the hype around. Trump officially announced in his candidacy for the presidency which was expected to happen slightly after midterms but has been delayed because of the different results or because of whatever he's thinking.

For Dwack that was around 22 bucks and it ran up to 30.75 for fun, similar type of run. You then had midterms happen and the Trump announcement looked to be pushed farther out and his endorsed candidates didn't exactly perform very well and the enthusiasm had died. However, he confirmed a few days ago that he's going to be holding a special announcement at his Mar-A-Lago on November 15th, which is the Tuesday and that's expected to be his much teased announcement for the presidency. So in that we have a specific Catalyst now for both stocks to anticipate.

Now what if Trump decides not to announce on that day? Well, who cares. but Key is looking to see if there's an anticipatory run and attacking it and getting the hell out before the announcement. Anyways, it rarely makes sense to ever hold through a catalyst because most of the time Catalyst runs are the most juicy right before the Catalyst. It's sort of like the buy the room or sell the news thing.

Yes, if he does announce and it's a positive announcement that gets more hype, perhaps you get a fast post announcement rally, but if you really want to, you can always play that separately anyway, so there's no reason to hold through it and risk blowing up your position. So that's what I'm thinking in terms of Dwac and Fun again. I Don't think that these stocks are worth anything other than the fact that they can move. If you are somebody that wants to hold these aimlessly, you are going to get destroyed aimlessly.

Okay, so let's go ahead and move over to Catalysts. So Tuesday We have the Producer price index coming out. We already have the CPI report come out last week and show the prices that consumers are paying, but the PPI is the price that the producers are paid so you're a little bit farther back on the supply chain. This is an interesting metric because if producers are paying more but lowering costs for consumers, that means their margins are getting crunched.

and Wednesday you have the retail sales report. This tends to cause extra volatility and give insight into consumer activity. Thursday You have a Fed panel discussion where we'll get some crucial insight into what Fed members are thinking and whether they are going to respond more favorably to the CPI and the PPR reports that will have come out by that point. And then Friday you have the Q3 E-commerce sales report.

Okay, Finally, let's go ahead and talk about this Bear Market rally. So we are in the most aggressive Bear Market rally attempt that we've seen since that mid-july to mid-august rally. And yes, we've already gone through a lot of hurdles. We got the latest 75 basis point hike.

We've already seen most of the major companies report earnings midterms are behind us and it looks like it's going to be a split Congress which markets have historically liked. You also have China somewhat easing lockdowns and at the same time we just got a CPR report that showed a cooldown in inflation at least from expectations, which is really the biggest win the stock market could hope for at this point. And it does mean that perhaps the FED does decide to opt for a 50 basis point hike in the December meeting and maybe there's a lower terminal rate come March that if inflation goes back up again next report. But let's just say for a second that everything that we see right now remains true and markets are thinking, hey, you're clear of negative headwinds until at least the beginning of 2023, right? rally time And from a TA standpoint, there's a strong history of reaching that directional moving average in each bear Market attempt at the very least.

So markets have at least some semblance of a green light right now, right? But I think at the same time you have to ask the question of when does the market start really factoring in a earnings recession. The next chapter of real worry for the stock market is not inflation. It's an earnings recession, Companies not making as much money. This is the five month change in S P 500 forward.

Earnings analysts are downgrading massively and rapidly, but according to Wall Street Journal this is not enough. Reality is only just beginning to set in, though. earnings are still forecast to hit a new high next year, up more than four percent from this year, even after the pullback. Again, that's much less growth than before with a 10 gain pencil than as recently as April.

But every past recession has led to double-digit drops. So yes, earnings are indeed being downgraded massively. But the they are still forecast to hit a new high next year, they're forecast to grow. Which means that analysts are looking at a Fed that is raising rates at a pace that we haven't done in four decades to combat inflation that we haven't had in four decades, and is quantitatively tightening at a pace that we've never done before.

And they are saying well. With all of this, we still think that companies are going to be making more money than ever all-time highs. Where in reality, if you look at every previous recession in history, they lead to double-digit drops, not single digit growths. So that means that firms that are allocating Capital based on peachy earnings estimates are going to have to start dumping a lot of stocks as the companies they're invested in underperform their earnings estimates.

But Charlie Why do analysts and firms have overly peachy earnings estimates? Because most of them won't downgrade unless they absolutely have to. They have to keep their clients invested and so they have to tell them. Oh, we continue to believe that next year is going to be a massive growth year. A new all-time high.

If you manage the firm at the end of 2021 and you told your clients that you're going to head into a massive massive bear market and earnings recession, well, guess what happens? They go and they take their money out of your fund before the crisis starts and you no longer earn their fees, You lose your Market power and you lose your relevancy. But instead, if you just downgrade slowly, what happens? People stay invested with you when their accounts are already down 20 or 30 percent. They're like, okay, well I've already lost all this money. Might as well just stay invested with them through the overall crisis.

If you are a firm and you're honestly telling your clients that they're going to lose all their money if they stay invested, why would they stay invested? No, you do it slowly You say, oh, it's going to be a little bit of a cool down, a shallow recession, and then as it gets more and more deeper, like, oh, it's just going to be a little bit more I'm just downgrading a little bit more. Don't worry, hold on, hold on. By the time it's 50, they've already sunk all the costs and most of them are going to stay with you. They're like, okay, well, it's just an overall terrible, fluke environment.

So that's why usually as an overall industry, you don't see Wall Street downgrading earnings at the pace that they would if they were honestly looking at the market I Said there's three three months ago I Said that six months ago I Said this nine months ago and people said that's a tinfoil hat Theory Charlie Wall Street Putting their own needs in front of their clients. That would never happen. You are such a conspiracy theorist. Yet, we are supposed to believe that all of these major Banks just happened to have been convinced now that earnings need to go down.

No, they knew it most of the time, but they didn't want to lose their clients. They didn't want to lose those sweet sweet fees. So in terms of a short-term bear, Market Rally Yes. I Do see a green light from an inflation standpoint.

I Think that you're probably not going to see any huge upside surprises in inflation, at least for the next couple of weeks. but I think the next round of fear is really in the earnings recession boat and it's going to take some time to see that. But once that comes out, I think you're still going to see a lot more downsides. So anyways, that is my thought process.

could be right, could be wrong, but that is the operating hypothesis that I have right now. Anyways, have a great rest of your day. Make sure to get your 15 free stocks with MooMoo down below. Make sure to join us in zip Trader you coupon code block 60 and of course make sure to hit that ravishing subscribe button and we will see you in the next video.