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DISCLAIMER: All of ZipTrader & ZipTrader LLC, our trades, reflections, strategies, and news coverage are based on our opinions alone and are only for entertainment purposes. These are Charlie's opinions, not investment/financial/legal advice. Past performance is not a predictor of future results. ZipTrader LLC is a Media Company and focuses on publishing media in regards to the market & market education. This is not personalized but rather general educational and informational material. Do your own due diligence and/or consult a registered financial advisor before taking any positions.
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📌New to the stock market and trading? We break everything down in a short sweet and simplified way.
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#NotFinancialAdvice #stocks
DISCLAIMER: All of ZipTrader & ZipTrader LLC, our trades, reflections, strategies, and news coverage are based on our opinions alone and are only for entertainment purposes. These are Charlie's opinions, not investment/financial/legal advice. Past performance is not a predictor of future results. ZipTrader LLC is a Media Company and focuses on publishing media in regards to the market & market education. This is not personalized but rather general educational and informational material. Do your own due diligence and/or consult a registered financial advisor before taking any positions.
You should not take any of this information as guidance for buying or selling any type of investment or security. I am not a financial advisor and anything that I say on this YouTube channel should not be seen as financial advice. I am only sharing my biased opinion based off of speculation and personal experience. An individual trader's results may not be typical and may vary from person to person. It is important to keep in mind that there are risks associated with investing in the stock market and that one can lose all of their investment. Thus, trades should not be based on the opinions of others but by your own research and due diligence.
AFFILIATE DISCLOSURE: I only recommend products and services I truly believe in. Some of the links on this webpage are affiliate links, meaning, at no additional cost to you, I may earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase and/or subscribe.
Folks, the UN just came out and yelled, we must change course because we are on the brink of a monstrous Global recession. They are the latest of many International Watchdogs that are sounding the alarms on this economy and the trajectory that we are rapidly heading on. The UN Trade and Development Agency said that what we are doing right now could trigger an economic downturn even worse than the 2008 recession. arguing in their most recent statement that country after country is at risk of Rapid collapse in the next six to 12 months if they don't get substantial debt relief and a substantial reversal of current policies.
And folks, really, if you read between the lines, they're not just talking developing in weaker countries, they're talking every country. They're talking even the wealthiest of the wealthy and the most economically powerful, They are talking across the board a complete obliteration. And this video is going to have three different parts: Number One, how the OPEC decision today will rapidly rapidly accelerate This Global crisis by making oil costs substantially more expensive. Number Two, the Un's warnings and the specifics on what you need to know, And finally, number three, a KPMG survey that came out just yesterday that says that 91 91 of CEOs expect a recession in the next 12 months, and when they say recession, they mean the much harder definition of recession, not the two negative consecutive quarters.
And before we get into it, this video is brought to you by zip Trader you and our step-by-step lessons, private chat, daily morning briefings and full price Target list as well as all other trading resources offered in the program. This is indeed a very rough Market but for Traders there's always volatility to trade off of one of our morning briefing plays, Pegy went up about 72 percent from briefing price the highs. This morning earlier this week we talked about Fnhc which also doubled from briefing price to highs and Mr Finger Fngr which went up 145 briefing price to highs and actually happens to be one of our top short squeeze candidates this month. But anyways, of course not all of our briefing plays run and that is not even the point of the briefings.
The point of the briefings is to brief you on all the big catalysts that we see each and every pre-market morning to make sure that you are aware of potential catalysts and setups that we see as worthwhile. And of course we also map out some basic criteria like bull or bear setup based on where the stock trades. Our daily morning briefings alongside the rest of the program can help you build a more solid foundation for your trading, which quite frankly, you need a very, very strong foundation in this market, especially when it comes to risk management. Anyways, I will go ahead and put a link to the program down below.
Coupon code flash40 will get you 40 off the full price of the program. Okay folks, so you know how one of the main talking points for inflation going away was the price of oil down trending well OPEC Plus came out today and said wait, we don't want prices to downtrend. That means that we make less money And so they went. And they decided to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day to make sure prices start going upward Again, these are the largest Cuts they've done since the cuts they did in the beginning of the pandemic when oil demand cratered the different between now and then. Well back then oil went into the negatives. This time, oil is still very, very expensive, and how long will these Cuts last? Well at least until the end of next year according to policy makers. Now, make no mistake, this is a very, very dramatic, dramatic cut to oil production, and it will have huge implications for context on how much that is. Back about three months ago, President Biden flew over to Saudi Arabia and met with their Crown Prince the de facto leader of OPEC and in that meeting, he attempted to persuade him to increase the production of oil to bring down oil prices across the globe.
and a few weeks later OPEC did go and agree to increase production by about a hundred thousand barrels a day, which is a modest increase, but it was still a symbolic win for the Biden Administration Now OPEC is actually going and cutting production by 20 times 20 times that amount per day. And quite frankly, if you actually look at what they were producing before this, most producers didn't even hit the production goals they had before, so it's like they're cutting, but they already weren't hitting the rates that OPEC had promised. So what is going on here? Well, what's going on here is that according to oil analysts, OPEC Plus does not want to see prices go below 90 anymore. 90 is the new floor.
All of the analysts that were expecting oil to Trend down to 70 60 50 like we were accustomed the last 10 years before the pandemic. Well, no, that isn't going to happen because Saudi Arabia and OPEC wants the floor to be much much higher and what they want. they get because they have a basic Monopoly on the overall Baseline that sets prices a monopoly. which by the way, the West has allowed them to have for stupid reasons.
But let's not get into that right now. Anyways, with oil trending lower and lower below their floor, OPEC Plus is now going to do what it must to get prices back up. They worry we are heading into a recession and once you run a recession, oil prices really tank right now. They're just taking expect in a recession because when a recession hits, demand for World craters.
So that is why they are so aggressively attacking production right now. so in effect. This means that the one benefit that we had of heading into a massive economic crisis: the bludgeoning of oil prices while that is now shifting in the opposite direction as they try to prop it back up. Which means we are heading for a massive economic crisis at the same time where we are going to see and continue to see rather elevated oil prices. Which means elevated prices across the board. No matter how bad this economic crisis is, and they're going to have to mark my words, they're going to have to cut production even more as we head into 2023. When the bad economic numbers really start coming out and they're going to do just that, they're going to say oh well, we better keep it above 90. we better keep it above 100 In fact.
Rohan Reddy Director of Research at Globalx ETFs told CNBC that the group's decision to impose production Cuts could see oil prices rally back to a hundred dollars a barrel. so not just 90. Again, this means elevated prices everywhere throughout the economy, everywhere in the world. Which means the Fed's job is going to be that much harder and means the recession that much deeper.
Okay, next the UN report. So the UN is forecasting a global recession and prolonged stagnation. On the current course that we are on this week, the Un's Trade and Development Agency said and I quote all regions will be affected but alarm Bells Are Ringing Most for developing countries, many of which are edging closer to debt default Quote: 60 percent of low-income countries and 30 percent of emerging market economies are in or near debt distress, causing the agency to warn of a possible Global debt crisis. Developing countries have already spent an estimated 379 billion of their reserves to defend their currencies this year.
So you have developing countries spending literally billions and billions. Hundreds of billions of dollars to defend their currency. and The Exodus out of it in order to protect and prop up its value at a pace that is double double what the IMF is allocating them to help supplement these official reserves. So I know it's easy to look at this and be like, okay, well here in the US or in some other wealthy Nation Well, we're pretty insulated from this, aren't we? We do wish them the best over their in the developing economies.
but Charlie Hashtag Not my problem. Well, wrong. It is your problem and you are going to be paying for it when these countries have a debt crisis. Who do you think lended that money to them in the first place other very poor developing nations? No, of course, not the first world wealthy Nations did.
And of course, systemically important institutions. What happens when entire countries start defaulting and can't pay back their debt to these institutions? What happens when the system all falls apart at the same time when the banks are already under insane stress. And what is the U.N calling for here? Well, a reversal of policies. They are calling for number one, central banks and developed economies like the US to reverse course and avoid the temptation to try to bring down prices by relying on ever higher interest rates. Number two: For advanced economies to void austerity measures, a reduction in government spending stimulus, they want them to avoid that. They are also calling for, amongst other things: International financial institutions to urgently provide increased liquidity and extend real debt relief for developing countries for governments to increase public spending and use strategic price controls for public and private investors to channel even more money into Renewable Energy Research So essentially, the UN is arguing that we stop our financial tightening and draining of the overall system and start spending tons and tons and tons of money again and throwing money back into the system to prevent collapse. Which means, in other words, we are stuck between two evils: Number one, the evil of Rapid Inflation. Number two: the evil of destroying the institutions that rely on the tools that create rapid inflation to survive Not a good place to be.
I Mean you either go back to destroying your currency and buying tons of things and letting the money printers go. Burr And all of a sudden, the currency collapses which causes the overall economy to collapse anyways, or you stop that and you completely go back into austerity mode. Hard money, hawkish policies around the globe. nobody's spending any money, and all of a sudden you have institutions and entire countries collapsing.
Both seem to lead to the same thing which is complete economic destruction. You're damned if you do, and you're damned if you don't And finally, I want to leave you with a peachy survey that just came out CEOs are screaming. They're screaming in panic behind the scenes. A KPMG survey that just came out yesterday found that 91 of CEOs believe a recession is coming in the next 12 months.
91 And when they say recession, they don't mean what you and I mean and what most have considered a recession since the Stone Ages. Two downtrending quarters of consecutive GDP decline. which of course we already have. No, No, no, they mean a recession that is so intense that it forces even the government to acknowledge it.
A recession that hit so hard so fast that the government can't even afford to redefine the term recession anymore. And when asked, do you think this recession will be mild and short, the vast majority of participants in the survey said what? No, Hell no. They didn't really say hell no, but they said no. Only 34 percent of them think it will be mild and short.
The survey says at the same time, the vast majority believe a recession will further disrupt their business, making it difficult to rebound from the pandemic. 80 percent believe a recession will upend their organizations anticipated growth over the next three years. eighty percent believe a recession will upend their organization's anticipated growth. And listen to this, The top steps that companies are planning are: pausing or reconsidering their ESG efforts and downsizing their employee base, Downsizing their employee base 51 percent half half are planning on downsizing their employee base. AKA Layoffs Right now, the job market is still very tight, but we are already starting to see a 10 month over month contraction in job openings. And now in the next six months, 51 percent of CEOs are saying yeah, we're planning layoffs. Get ready for layoffs. This is terrible, terrible news for the economy.
Anyways, folks that caps off the video: If You appreciate videos like this, Make sure to hit the Subscribe button and keep up to date with us as we go through this crisis. Have a good rest of your day, folks. Make sure sure to check out the links to MooMoo and zip Trader you down below and I will see you in the next video.
the voice of doom….lol
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