Okay folks, so over the last 24 hours I piled through dozens and dozens of analysts and institutional forecasts on what is going to happen next in this economy and more importantly in this market. As you know, I am a huge believer in listening and violently taking in what is being said in the market so that I can get kind of an idea on the sentiment that the market is trading on. And in this video, folks, I'm going to show you exactly what I found. I promise you that you will have a more honest perspective on what is driving this market if you sit through this entire video and maybe you take a few notes even if they are mental time stamps down below.

But first, a quick word from our sponsor: this video is sponsored by Ziptraderu and our 50 offer session 50 coupon code that expires midnight on Labor Day, which is this coming Monday. But Charlie, what can we get if we join? Well, thank you very much for asking as a member. with us, you will get access to our comprehensive 10 plus hour lesson library, our popular daily morning briefings, our private chat room, and of course our full price target list, and all other trading resources that you can learn more about if you click that link down below. Okay, so I actually want to start with the Fed today.

So Neil Kashkari, the Minneapolis Fed President, comes out and says that he is happy to see the stock market's reaction after Jackson Hole. The market of course tanked after Jackson Hole. He says he sees the sell-off as evidence that the market is taking the Central bank's inflation fight. Seriously.

Quote People now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to two percent. So what is he saying here? He is saying here: If you are someone who participated in this rally and you think it's going to continue, you clearly do not understand our commitment to fighting inflation. You clearly are thinking that we are going to pansy out again when we are not planning to. He's warning markets that if you buy at these prices, you are fighting the Fed.

you are fighting the most powerful central bank in the world. He's warning that the Fed will plow through you like a farmer plows through a field of crops. He is making it loud and clear that the Fed does not want the market to go up. They want it to go down because that is more in line with their trajectory.

Don't believe me? Well, here is a direct quote. I certainly was not excited to see the Stock market rallying after our last Fomc meeting because I know how committed we all are to getting inflation down and I somehow think the markets were misunderstanding that. So let's take a step back for a second and look at this guy's picture. Imagine if you were trying to get into a bar or club and this guy Mr.

Neil Kashkari was the bouncer and he was like hey bro, you're not getting it would you try to push past him and rush towards the door. If he said that to me I'd be like oh okay, no problem, I'm going straight home. Don't worry about me but markets are seeing this guy at the door and they're looking at him like lol you're not gonna do shite and he's like you better not come in, you better not come in and they're like ha ha And then they just rush right through the door and now that they have already rushed the door and they're already in the club, the bouncer is looking in the club and he's like okay, I'm coming back with my baton and I'm about to kick some rear end. I think Mr.

Neil Kashgari is not giving an outlier opinion. I think that he is speaking for the trajectory that the Fed is actually on. Maybe if he said this two years ago, he would have been given an outlying opinion. but I think he is just putting into words what everybody, almost everybody at the Central Bank is thinking, hey, you can buy if you want, But we're about to beat the market down and it's going to be messy.

We are about to embark on a mission to do everything possible to just completely obliterate capital markets in hopes that maybe we get inflation down a little bit. And he's trying to set market expectations. that, hey, that's the market environment that you're buying into. Okay, let's go ahead and move on to Mr.

Steven Roach, whose prediction went viral on most of financial media. He said the U.s needs a quote miracle to avoid a recession. This is a very accomplished man who served as chair at Morgan Stanley Asia. He's a Yale University senior fellow, and he's a former Fed economist.

Which means at least he has a very, very valuable perspective, right? And here are the Charlie nuts: He says quote will definitely have a recession. as the lagged impacts of this major monetary tightening start to kick in, they haven't kicked in at all right now. He says. so he's saying that hey, the 200 plus basis points that we've already gone up.

well, guess what? Those aren't done yet. We're gonna hike more and guess what else. Hey, the ones that we've already done, they haven't been felt by the markets at all. at least not as far as the broader economy is concerned, right? But they will soon.

and he thinks the ultimate tipping point will be consumers. He speculates that they will soon capitulate due to persistent inflation if wages go up, but not at the same pace as inflation. Eventually, that is a collision course, right? And aside from that, he thinks that Powell has no choice but to take a Volcker approach, at least towards Volcker approach to tightening. And he thinks that as a result, unemployment will end up going to five to six percent.

As a result, current unemployment is at 3.5 so that would be quite the jump, right? He also warns that China's zero coveted policy, serious supply chain backlogs, and tensions with the West will worsen the global economy. Next, you have Mr. David Rosenberg, who is the President of Rosenberg Research real original name. Who would have thought you named something after your last name, right? I'm just giving him a hard time, but he thinks the Fed was embarrassed by the transitory debacle and is now more than willing to over tighten in order to get things right.

He goes as far as to say that Powell sees the economy as a sacrificial lamb that may need to be put on the butcher table in order to bring down inflation. If your company and your livelihood and your entire investment account is a sacrificial lamb for Powell, that is not a good thing. That is definitely not a good thing. And he comments on how much we need to see inflation go down before the Fed calls it quits.

and he sees that as six months, Six months of intense disinflation. which is quite a long time. So far, we've had one month of very, very very very light disinflation. Now, from kind of the opposite perspective, we have Mr.

Richard Thaler and as Business Insider reports, Nobel prize winning economist Richard Thaler mocks claims that the Us is in recession and says inflation could fade within a year. He thinks the economy is showing more signs of strength than weakness. He says, I don't see anything that resembles a recession. We have record low unemployment, record high vacancies that looks like a strong economy, vacancies referring to job openings not housing right.

He thinks that unions should be asking for more to compensate workers for the higher prices they are facing, making the argument that businesses are the big problem, not the spiraling prices. He spent a long time pinning inflation on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China supply chain disruptions, and he thinks that deflation could come next year if Ukraine, the Ukraine situation is over, and Kovid leaves China to situations that I just can't see playing out. He also thinks that inflation can be a very, very positive thing in terms of reducing inequality by encouraging low-income workers to demand higher wages. Quite frankly, I found this gentleman's arguments to be quite incoherent.

I say that respectfully, but he insinuates that the current economy is great. There's no worrisome signs, but he also acknowledges out-of-control inflation. How can you have those two things at the same time? There have been tons of economies throughout history and many different countries that have been doing very, very well because the government printed so much damn money and everybody had capital and then prices just kept spiraling out of control. And you could have said, well, you know everybody's spending, everybody has more money, The economy is doing great, but it doesn't take into consideration what comes after the superinflationary period, right, which is death, destruction and pain.

He does not seem to consider the idea that in order to get inflation down, you may have to bludgeon the economy as well, right? And he also indicates that lower income workers demanding higher wages should fix the overall economy and make it more fair. But at the same time you have to also note that usually when low-income workers get paid more, the companies just pass it on to the consumers because all of a sudden their input costs are going up right. Obviously, competitively low unemployment makes it so that it's very, very difficult for businesses to find employees to hire, which means that they start paying more and offering more benefits. But at the end of the day you have the Fed come in and saying hey, we actually think that it's too tight.

We think that the employment pool is way way too tight. that unemployment rate's gonna go like group next. Steve Hank made headlines on Cnbc as he said we are going to have one whopper of a recession. He warns that historically there has never been sustained inflation that isn't the result of excess growth in the money supply, and notes that Covid was, of course, unprecedented growth in that money supply.

The key word here is sustainable, right? Because you can certainly have short and even medium periods of time where supply is thrown out of whack or demand is extremely high and that causes prices to go up. But in order to have sustained inflation, he is kind of making the case that that usually is because of an unprecedented growth in the money supply. If after supply and demand start naturally, going back to their baseline, you still have higher prices. Well, that's because of excessive money printing.

and he thinks that the unprecedented money supply growth is the reason we are going to continue to see inflation through 2023 and 2024, regardless of what happens on the supply chain. He says the bottom line is, we're going to have stagflation. We are going to have inflation because of the excess of money that's circulating around the system and then a slowing down of the U.s economy as a result of us no longer continuing to stimulate. In other words, we have to pay for the stimulation that we did the last couple of years and that payment is going to be steep.

It's going to be stagflation. But it's his view that Powell is focused on the wrong thing. He thinks that Mr. Powy Powell is still focused on the supply-side glitches.

where he reiterates his point that inflation is always caused by excess growth in the money supply, turning the printing presses on, not supply side glitches. Now, this is a debated point again, because of course, if you don't print any money, you could still get price increases. That's pretty obvious if all of a sudden there's no supply of something and the demand stays constant. you can get a massive rise in pricing pressures even if the government's not print and shut.

But generally again, those are short to medium term pressures. And he's not really debating that. He's saying that when all is said and done, the excess growth in the money supply will continue to drive excess inflation for years to come. And he thinks that Powell is wrong at just assuming that once supply-side glitches are solved, that we'll get back to baseline.

He's saying, no, we will Not. Okay, let's go ahead and talk about Goldman Sachs. everyone's favorite sex. They say they see a feasible but difficult path for the Fed to defeat inflation without a recession, They think the path to a soft landing is getting narrower.

They see the biggest problem as stubbornly high inflation, which the Fed has shown little convincing progress on so far. Specifically, one of the takeaways that I saw is a lot of stickiness in wage growth. They are projecting that, hey, once you get some stickiness and wage growth, all of a sudden, well, companies are going to have to go into the red if they start marking their prices down. So all of a sudden they don't mark their prices down.

They just kind of stay stuck. They just kind of stay stuck at the increased prices. And then All of a sudden what happens. Well, they either go out of business or people buy and prices permanently are up.

So that was something that I didn't really like to see. That was a projection that's like, hey, shite, Inflation is now very, very sticky. You also have Imf, which I don't want to go into too much. But as Bitcoin.com reported, Imf expects U.s economy to experience high inflation for at least another year or two.

Gida Gopinath from the Imf. I'm sorry if I messed up your name she said at the Jackson Hole Summit that quote. There are global factors like energy prices and food prices that are driving it, but there are also kind of more sticky components. There's that evil word again of inflation that are high.

So you get into the situation where hey, what, certain input costs like labor are now increased in prices. Well, all of a sudden, those pricing prices are very much baked into the system. and once they're baked into the system, you get into an entrenched inflationary environment. Okay, let's go ahead and talk about Jeremy Grantham.

If you've heard the name before, it's because he's probably one of the biggest party poopers in the world. It seems like every time the market goes up a quarter of a percent, he's there and screaming, hey, don't trust it This is a super bubble, but I have found some value in what he has said and I think you will too. He's laid out certain stages in regards to a super bubble. He says number one, you get a setback like the one in the first half of this year.

Number Two, you get a slight rally like the one we just came off of. Number Three Fundamentals break down companies and the overall economy actually start breaking down, not just the stock market trying to factor that in ahead of time and then number four. Shortly after that, the market reaches its low point. And so, the question that I'd like you to ask yourself is, what stage do you think that we're in I'd argue We're in the very, very early stages of number Three.

A lot of people think, oh, you know, if you're gonna have a massive financial tightening and a massive recession that needs to happen overnight, But a lot of people don't realize that most of the time, if it's not a coven massive lockdown from the government, then most of the time it's a very, very slow bleed. And I think we're in the early stages of number three because we've already had the market already take to factor in tightening and some recessionary results. You've had that slight comeback rally several times, but you've only ever so slightly begun to see the degradation of fundamentals of this economy and of companies. and you're still seeing unemployment be at record lows.

People are still spending but week after week. Starting with the financial sector and moving more and more and more into consumer goods and services and discretionary funding. Uh, discretionary spending. Things are getting weaker and weaker week after week, and eventually that compounds on its own.

But it really compounds when you start thinking, hey, a lot of the rate hikes that we've already done, if not most of them, haven't been factored into the economy at all. You haven't really seen much of a bludgeon in the economy as a result of those. and the Fed, based on what they are saying, has a lot more to go. Which means that a lot of the biggest headwinds that people have been fearing and say are behind us are actually likely in front of us.

In summary, the current sentiment I've discovered by reading these analyst opinions and others is really three things: Number one, outsized inflation is likely to stay here through 2023 and 2024 at minimum, number two, unemployment will have to go up sizably before inflation comes down, and number three: Broad recession risk predictions pin the recession at starting anywhere from Q4 of 2022 through 2024.. Let us know what your opinion is in terms of where we are heading heading into the end of the year, and what the Fed's trajectory is going to look like. Is the Fed going to have to up the ante on inflation? or are they going to be able to walk away? Was inflation really transitory after all? Make sure to also hit that ravishing like button and subscribe with us. Thank you again Zip Trader you for sponsoring us and our recession 50 coupon code.

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