Okay folks, so we've got a lot to talk about. Number One: We need to give an update on the current market and the narrative that is increasingly winning right now. Number Two: An update on plays. Our Monkey Pox plays have really gone parabolic.

Obviously, Gov X had some more upper sleeves this morning. up another 60 at highs. We'll also be discussing one new Monkey Puck stock that we started talking about just this morning that I think you're going to want to know about and it's trading right now at about 12 give or take. And then lastly, number three.

I want to talk about one contrarian stock that we've covered a decent amount in the past that today just all of a sudden randomly went up one hundred percent before slightly dipping what is going on here. Well, you're going to want to hear this. Let's get right to work. And this video is sponsored by Ziptraderu and our Recession 50 coupon code that will get you 50 off the price.

This is specifically a very useful time because you're starting to see a lot of trendy stocks start really popping. Okay, so let's go ahead and talk about what is going on with this market. So today you're in the situation where stocks are flat, but on an overall uptrend media is already back to pumping stories about. Oh, this is the recovery and we've already bought them for the year, starting to see a lot of content out there saying oh no, the fear it's all over, we are now guaranteed to see a new rise to all-time highs.

All of this stuff with excessive money printing, a weakened consumer inflation eating into purchasing power. All of that, just a bunch of fud. Sure, the last balance is just served as exit liquidity for the big money to get out with less of a discount, but this time, no, this time is different. Everything is better now.

Inflation no longer a problem because we've had several months of oil prices going down slightly, Which that means guarantees that in the future oil prices are going to continue to go down and everything is going to go down. Earnings are bad for a lot of companies, but hey, at least Apple is beating guidance. That means that everything is going to do very very well heading into the end of the year. No more selling off.

That just doesn't happen anymore. Yet even today, when you're starting to see this narrative be pushed, that the fear is over and will never come back. And on a day where indices as a whole basically held flat and held on to their gains even with that, notice how the vix is up seven percent. What does that mean? Well, it means that despite the flat market, people are already starting to hedge very, very heavily for upcoming volatility and upcoming huge price swings.

Which suggests that even though the new public narrative is oh, the Bear Market is over, that is not what people are doing with their money. They're going in hedging. They're using this quiet time to go and prepare for future volatility and to kind of understand why markets are doing what they're doing right now. You have to go back to that new group that is pushing the narrative of oh, the Fed is going to Pivot and the Fed is never going to be forced to go more aggressive again.

Now I've said before that hey, I do think that that is going to pivot before, probably long before inflation is anywhere near their target, but I think that's a huge mistake and a huge gamble and may cause a lot more pain down the road right now. The biggest reason that markets think the Fed is going to pivot is because you have seen commodity prices, energy prices, and specifically oil prices start going down on a month-over-month trend. Problem is that a lot of people are assuming that the factors that drove these prices to pump in the first place are all of a sudden gone and guaranteed not to come back. Excessive money printing, artificial demand, a huge lack of supply, an increasingly segmented economy as a result of the Ukraine invasion, an overwhelming reluctance in Western countries to produce more oil, and a reluctance in Opec countries to help bail out the situation.

Of course, in fact, the main driving factor that is causing commodity prices to go down is the fact that markets think that the Fed and other central banks are going to push us into a deep recession, which is going to cause demand for these goods to go down. The problem is if the market starts expecting the biggest central bank in the world to pivot before inflation is even down meaningfully well, all of a sudden they're going to start expecting demand to pick up again and then boom, you get yourself into another inflationary wave. I hope commodity prices continue to go down, but I think it's too early for the Fed and the markets to call this a win. I think markets are right to expect the Fed to be more of a pansy at fighting inflation, but I don't think the Fed is right at being more of a pansy at fighting inflation.

I think the Fed is going to be caught in a huge gamble come fall, when inevitably commodity prices start going up again. Okay, but let's go ahead and move on to the Monkey Pox traits. So Monkey Pox plays have continued to heat up as we have more public authorities escalating awareness on the issue. Nyc officials declared Monkey Pox a public health emergency and it's likely other cities will soon as well, which provides more juice for the overall trade.

Let's start with Madame Govex. Last week, I made this video on Monkey Pox stocks including Gov X and had Gov X in the thumbnail and if you look closely at it, the high at that time was 195.. So even if you set aside the braving price, which was actually a chunk lower than that, it still has more than doubled from Peaks that it was trading at early last week. Which just goes to show you how insane an emerging trend trade can be if you find it early in the process, right? But you do have to understand what these are gonna look like when they're finished down like a dock.

And every single person that yelled at you on social media because oh, you're a weak little paper handy child for going and taking in profits when it was running is going to be begging you for some extra cash to pay off the margin because they're about to lose their house and you're going to look at them and you're going to say boo hoo, I took profits. I'm not just a degenerative gambler. I am a strategic degenerative gambler. But jokes aside, you got to be very, very careful.

If you play a trend trade, make sure that you have clear and concise entry and exit plans and you can't let the play play you. You have to play the play. Yesterday we talked about how we retook previous cycle highs This morning. we built heavily on top of that, and that old resistance became new support.

And if it sells off and it bounces from that level, obviously it'd be easier to see another strong leg upward. But like I was saying yesterday based on what I'm seeing and the current case trend, the current Monkey Pox alarm seems to be getting freakier and freakier and certainly freakier than the last cycle we saw back in May. So it would be reasonable to assume that a lot of these Monkey Pox stocks are going to have a rocket under their rear end. Bigger and more powerful and more rockety than the one that we saw in May.

So Gov X I think still some new opportunities for some new all-time highs. Probably going to get a decent cool down and a decent breath in the next couple of days. I said yesterday early this week, you're probably going to get it, I think probably Tuesday or Wednesday. Honestly, if it doesn't it's going to be a lot more painful of a downtrend.

I'll give you that next. Vracks Now This is a stock that was a very, very fascinating case study this morning. This stock ipo'd back on the 21st and was trying to find its bearing as a newly minted ticker, which tends to be the most volatile trading period. and then on Friday it just completely knows though, from 29 to 4 37.

And then this morning we saw some proof of concept in a bounce and we briefed on it at about 770 and it ran to 1375, which is almost an 80 run from briefing price to heist. But here's the thing. Verax is a diagnostic test kit specialist and they announced that they will launch a Pcr test for the Monkeypox virus. Combining that with several agencies calling the outbreak an emergency and Boom for Ax gets pumping heavily and I think you're going to start seeing more cities start announcing this as a public health emergency, which means more and more pumps for these types of stocks.

And there's a lot of speculation that we don't know the real spread of this virus because we don't have sufficient testing resources. There goes again, a Vrax value add and thus, Boom Boom Raxivraxy. Now in terms of practicality on what is a good price to play this at, well, it's all really momentum driven. I don't think there's much price discovery or price relevancy right now at all.

It's just people going and buying because they think that there's going to be more news out ahead like we just covered and that's going to cause more and more people to buy and less more momentum. So overall, definitely doesn't make much sense on a price discovery basis. Which means there's no way you can really analyze to say how much this is worth because it's all based on the speculation on how useful they're going to be with the diagnostic tests and this overall Monkey Pox crisis. But in terms of an ebb and flowing trend trade with very, very volatile days, I would say it's definitely a Yes.

This is one of those plays where you wake up early, you see the direction it's trading that over the red directional Sma line, and you focus on trading with the trend and avoiding it when the trend changes. A lot of people say if you're a real trader, you would trade a stock whether it's going up or down, but if you're trying to trade off a trend and you're trying to trade off a momentum trend, well, it doesn't make much sense to hold it blindly when it's going down. Always remember folks, the trend is your friend until the trend bends and then it's no longer your friend. Lastly, I want to talk about Revi Ravina.

We covered her during her first contrarian pump cycle as she got squeezed on a bankruptcy situation, and then she had a slow bleed and today she pumped to just about the exact height she had topped out at at the last cycle. Again, for the pattern-hating folks, this was not a good day for your thesis. The whole oh, patterns are all just hogwash, bro isn't really working out too well for a lot of folks in this market, but practically what made her pump. Well remember Revi Ravina.

Revlon filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy back in June, which is the month after May and before July, and this morning a U.s bankruptcy judge granted permission for them to proceed with a 1.4 billion loan which will help them continue to be operational and going from a company that had very little hope and about to be gutted by lenders to now being able to borrow its way back to recovery and actually stay operational is a big stinking deal. From a contrarian standpoint, when a company has a market cap of 500 million and it's approved a 1.4 billion dollar loan and has 78 percent of its free float sold short. Well, that's quite the situation, isn't it? You have all these shorts that were betting that Revlon review can't eat off those bones anymore. We're gonna protect this dead animal carcass.

I mean, quite frankly, the judge was so biased that they even let Revlon move forward with their bonus plan, allowing 160 employees in management to be given bonuses despite the fact that they were the ones that ran this company into the ground. I love bankruptcy courts where they argue oh, the top management needs to be given massive, massive bonuses to retain them because they did such a good job the first time. But anyways, predictions? Well, it's a bit of guesswork, but I'd expect after this original catalyst run wears off, it cools down and you start seeing some blips upward as shorts try closing out of their positions. I think the biggest problem though with Revi is that at eight or nine dollars, you're still at a fourth of all time highs.

Despite the fact that this company is literally on its knees begging Quartz to let it leverage itself to its eyeballs I can easily name you a hundred companies. Maybe a thousand companies that have strong balance sheets, very little debt, a growing business model that is going to continue growing, and they're trading at like 1 10th or 120th of their all-time highs. So I mean valuation rise. Revlon is ridiculous.

Management wise, it's ridiculous. Business-wise it's ridiculous. I don't really blame the shorts, but from a contrarian standpoint and an inefficiency standpoint now that judges have ruled in Revlon's favor, it does seem to me like you're going to see some blips as short sellers try to exit out of this position. With this new added Bankruptcy Risk Protection and new loan that people didn't realize Rev was going to get, This loan is a huge game changer.

Again, 1.4 billion dollars can really allow Revlon to stay operational and start trying to recover, right? So definitely a big deal. Anyways, this is a stock that I know a lot of people are asking my opinion on and that is my thought process. Probably one that's going to be very, very difficult to play accurately. Probably one that's going to be hard to risk manage.

Probably one where quite frankly the bankruptcy courts have gone a little bit too much in their favor. But welcome to the United States. Anyways, that caps off this video. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us below or join us on Ziptrade.

Historical if you'd like to learn how to trade rather violently, we do have a 50 off coupon code on Ziptraderu coupon code Recession: 50 for the one-time fee on lifetime access to the program. You can also get some free stocks by signing up with Moomoo down below. Have a good one folks and I'll see you in the next video.