So I woke up this morning and I smelt a fire. I was about to call the fire department, but before I did I realized that the smell that I was smelling was just the smell of burning equities. This market is nothing short of a disaster. You look at the 10-year treasuries we are getting close to breaking past 2018 highs at 3163 and pushing into levels that we haven't seen since 2011 and soon levels that we haven't seen since 2008 and perhaps even 2006.

markets are signaling skyrocketing expectations for rate hikes the S P 500 down again to New Year To date Lows: Triple Q just getting decimated with especially big tech starting to cascade in a downtrend and of course S. Triple Q which shorts it made a new cycle high. You look at Ark's flagship fund, it's back down to levels it first earned in early 2018. getting close to even the coveted lows the bottom of Covet.

This was, of course, the biggest superstar fund of 2020.. at this pace, the fun is going to get into the single digits in no time. You look at some individual stocks in many different sectors like for example, Rivian just destroyed today as Ford reportedly sells shares at a discount Amc down to a new 52-week low. They did beat on earnings in the after hours and bounced some, but still just dramatic downtrends.

Big dogs like Tesla even are down now 35 from levels we hit just a month ago. Amazon is down 41 from their highs. I read a comment yesterday that said if your stock is down 40 or more, that means you're not holding a real company, but you're holding a mean stock. No, the biggest dogs on Wall Street and the biggest in the overall economy are getting beaten down like rabid dogs as well.

This is no longer just a multiple crunch. this is a recessionary crunch. People aren't just shortening their time horizon. They're now thinking that the future is very, very bleak.

When you're in a market that can beat down some of the biggest and most well-known companies 75 on a dime, you're in a market where nothing is safe. It's increasingly looking like whatever team you're rooting for is just being hit with death and destruction. It's like if each sector had its own boat in a big C and then somebody just went and drained the entire sea. Well, all boats are going to go down.

And like we're talking about yesterday, it's very, very difficult to find a sustaining bottom. and if we get something that resembles a bottom, it's going to be very, very difficult to even trust it. Why? Because the mass of headwinds are not changing and they're not changing anytime soon. The financial market is a junkie hooked on the Fed's easy money policies, and we don't know how much of the junkies supply the Fed is going to have to cut back.

I think it's probably not going to be long until we do get another Bear Market rally, but that rally's just going to be eaten up again like the last one was until we actually get some sustaining change to the overall macro factors which are just garbage right now. And when I plan these videos, I try really, really hard to make them informative, but also not to make them depressing or make people walk away from the video feeling kind of sad or discouraged. I want to keep enthusiasm alive for the market in good and bad conditions, and especially really in bad conditions. But sometimes it's very, very difficult, especially when you're in a very, very drawn out crisis that just keeps getting worse and worse and worse week after week after week.

Quarter after quarter after quarter. How do you tell somebody that may have just gotten interested in the market 3, 6, 12, or even 18 months ago that hey yeah, sometimes you actually have sustaining rallies in the stock market? A lot of folks entered the market right at what we now know has been one of the worst periods to ever enter the stock market in the last several decades. If the current trajectory continues and the Fed can't tame inflation, this may end up actually being one of the worst and most stubborn Bear markets that we've ever had. You have some of the worst characteristics here from each of the previous recessions: the death of the risk on trading from the dot-com bust that made it so people didn't even want to invest in tech companies that had strong fundamentals in the aftermath of that crash.

You have the insane and stubborn inflation from the 1970s busts. You have the increasing crisis of confidence from the 2008 plus bust, perhaps even some cascading of real estate prices later on. I do think that mortgage standards are substantially higher now, but it's hard to say how things are going to fall when they actually do start falling and nobody can really tell you until they start pulling away all that money. Only when the waters go out, do you really see who is naked.

And then, more importantly, you have a characteristic that we've never ever seen before. And that is the massive monster of unprecedented monetary policy intervention and unprecedented fiscal policy intervention that we now have to pay for in many different ways. Not to mention that things are so bad that politicians are still talking about passing massive spending packages as ways to fix this inflation problem. My weight loss strategy is by eating more cake.

Oh, I gained more weight. How did that happen? And then of course you have Russia, which is another big wild card. Look, Honestly, you could do whatever fundamental or technical analysis that you want. I know I have.

but the two factors that the market looks at to value a company are number one. revenue and earnings. Number two, the multiple On that revenue and earnings. And before you had the massive contraction of multiples, now you have both the massive contraction of multiples, but also the contraction of future earnings.

Expectations: Future revenue growth, Future business industry, overall, sector health. Both are under threat until we get some relief that's sustaining from inflation, and the Fed says, okay, well, we've gotten that relief. It's time to start slowing down and eventually pausing or reversing course. And unfortunately, no one's going to be able to tell you for certain when that's going to happen.

But on the other side, you're certainly going to want to look back and say I made the Dm right choices. I looked at everything that I saw in front of me, and I made choices that were well thought out and made sense. Historically, they don't have to be perfect, but they have to make logical sense, right? And they have to be well thought out. So right now I want to walk you through some of the rug pulls that we're seeing in a lot of different companies right now.

and we're going to go ahead and start with Palantir. Palantir is now down another 20 plus today. Total complete disaster dumpster fire. They reported earnings today and I was reading some of the analyst reports and criticism on the earnings and people are like I'm really disappointed in their government revenue which has been decelerating in growth.

Which is actually pretty damn crazy because just a year ago they were saying the complete opposite. I really wish that Palantir wouldn't do so much business with the government and instead only focused on their commercial segment. A year later, Palantir is doing that and people are unhappy. of course.

not shocking at all, but there's more here, of course. Yesterday we were talking about how my main concern was Palantir's commercial segment, and today they reported a 54.5 year-over-year increase, which is pretty damn huge if you look at their overall earnings results. They reported more customers, more revenue, reported that they are closer to profitability, and they have higher margins. They did slightly miss on their earnings per share, but in my view, that was a conscious decision.

They could have cut back a bit on their product development or converting of new customers, and all of a sudden reportedly beat in that segment. But they've never made decisions that make them look good on Wall Street versus make them actually good company. Let's be real. Palantir stock right now.

Looks like a rabid dog on the side of a truck stop. People have been kicking on it. It smells weird. It looks like it's fur's all ripped up and dirty.

It hops, it can barely walk anymore, and it looks like it's about to die. People want to put it out of its misery because it looks painful just to watch it suffer. But that's Palantir, the stock, right? If you look at Palindrome, the company, they just reported a pretty damn good quarter. Here's a company that predicted quarters ago and is once again reiterating that we're heading into this global economic crisis and also geopolitical crisis which we're already deep in, and those things are going to hurt guidance in future quarters, and it is going to become very, very challenging to navigate.

They also projected cryptic ways at which Palantirs want to be able to benefit. If things really do get more tense, they've prepared for economic tightening. They've prepared for pretty damn apocalyptic scenarios, and so far in good conditions. They've shown proof of concept and being able to scale their customer base again and again.

quarter after quarter after quarter. And you could say, well, you know you're heading into a bad market condition. you're heading into very, very challenging macro areas. Makes sense that Palantir would go down, but at a certain point when you see it get cut in half and then in half and then in half and then in half again and then get beat down 20 on earnings which weren't even that bad, you start realizing that wait a second.

the market's not even really looking at what they're doing. The market has no interest in the business model behind it. it's just trading with the trend, the sucking out of capital from the overall market that sinks all ships eventually, but especially starts taking those ships first that are more forward-looking and a little bit more difficult for the average investor to understand. Moving on to upstart another company that I like quite a lot.

This is a company that I originally presented on the channel as a buy around 80 or 90 bucks. More than a year ago, it ran up about 400 in the months after Insane Run. I said at the time I think when it broke into 300 or 350 that it was getting way way too expensive and the fundamentals were all very, very good did not justify the price. And actually ironically I think that video was the first one that I lost subscribers on.

And I think the reason is because a lot of people bought into the narrative that analysts were pushing when this broke 300, that this was going to go to 600 or 700 and that this was, uh, buy at any price. It was a genuinely good company, but it wasn't worth 400. Now, like 10 months later, we are in the opposite situation. It's down to one-tenth of all-time highs that people thought it was a steel act and it's down to half the price that I thought it was a steal at.

And what did the company report today that made it so bad? Well, they reported terrible news that they delivered their seventh profitable consecutive quarter and fourth straight quarter with triple digit year-over-year revenue growth. Terrible. The audacity growth. But here's another example of a company that's getting bludgeoned by the future economy that we're heading into.

What did they do? They wanted to reduce their guidance like a lot of other companies are right now right now with stock after stock. Whether it's a conviction stock that I like, a stock that you like, a stock that somebody else likes, you're seeing this dynamic go on where people are feeling very, very helpless. It reminds me of the early days of the 2020 drop, where equities were burning day after day and very, very rapidly. And it's like if you're making a decision in that environment, you're making a decision on a lot of unknowns.

Number one, you didn't know what the virus was gonna do. Number two: you didn't know how the Fed was going to react to the virus. You didn't know how the economy was going to react. You didn't know how states and the overall federal government would react in terms of restrictions and travel bans and overall just letting business operate or not.

You didn't know how fast things would come back. You didn't know what the Federal government would pass in terms of stimulus, so on and so forth. You just didn't know any of these things. And for me, a lot of companies that I did the due diligence on in 2019 before Covet was even a thing.

all of these projections that I made, and all these in-depth fundamental analyses. All of that was kind of thrown through a loop during that 2020 crash because all of these unknowns came into the picture. and right now that same thing is happening. You can't predict what Russia is going to do.

It's very, very difficult to time the peak down in inflation. It's very difficult to predict what the Fed is going to do multiple quarters out, because even they don't know yet. and it's difficult to predict at least to a t how the economy is going to hold up. Going one step too far at the Fed could cause us to get entrenched into a very, very difficult recession to get out of and similar in 2020.

We couldn't control that either. My outlook in 2020 and my outlook now is that hey, things are bad. The macro factors are bad, but things will turn around sooner or later and moving forward. This is a story that we're seeing with stock after stock.

First they braced for multiple crunching. Now they're bracing for recession fears. Rug pulls her everywhere. spotified, down 75 percent, coinbase, down 75 percent, and showing no signs of stopping.

Teledoc Not a company I'm a huge fan of, and I've never really understood what makes them super competitive, but they're down 90 Nvda massive large cap considered a big safe play in the Fall of 2021. Pretty much every analyst was recommending to buy this at Peaks or at least around Peaks. Still a 424 billion dollar company even today, but it's down almost half amd total rug pull as well at 44 Down Disney down 44 Since mid-march a much weaker company obviously Robin Hood, but still one of the biggest retail players in the retail trading space is down in death mode down 86 percent. Boohoo, but still pretty extreme, right? Snapchat Down 70 Shopify A great e-commerce company.

One of the best out there. Down 80 You look at the financial sector big banks that tend to do very well when rate hikes happen, but not so well if rate hikes trigger a recession. Well, now they're trying to factor in some recessionary fears. Jp Morgan down almost 30 since October Citigroup down 37 Goldman Sachs Investment Bank, an asset manager that has dominated markets for many, many years, down 26 percent In a few months, In Fintech, you have a firm the buy now, pay later lending company growth stock down almost 90 90 This is one of the most popular, talked about stocks on Youtube towards the end of 2021..

You even look at some of the biggest companies the biggest dogs in the world, Alphabet woof woof companies that it's hard to be bearish on over a long term time horizon and basically again dominate the world. But when you consider that even this is down 25 and probably has a lot more to go depending on the hike and economic trajectory, Well, people look at this and they're like, geez, if Alphabet is expected to start going down in value dramatically, what chance do I have with smaller companies that don't have nearly the dominating power of something like this? When this huge indestructible boat is dealing with headwinds that push it down 25, you're going to see other stocks. They don't have nearly the staying power of something like an Alphabet down two times as much, three times as much. And the point of this video isn't to scare anybody.

this is just reiterating the trend that we've already been on for a long time now to recognize that we're in a very, very bad macro condition. We're in a multi-decade bad market condition and it may end up getting substantially worse, or you may see a quarter or two go by and the Fed reverses trajectory because they can't take the economic data and inflation already goes down. It's very difficult to say there's a lot of things that we don't know right now, similar to lots of things that we didn't know in the middle of 2020. But I believe that our mandate as traders and investors in the stock market is to number one on the trading side, take advantage of the market condition, and number two on the investing side.

take advantage of the market condition by finding good deals not just blindly defined at every single drop because there's many of them, but looking for stocks that have a strong likelihood of coming out winners. On the other side of this, because those are going to have extreme growth just like a lot of the big tech players today. went down 60, 70, 80, or 90 percent during the dot-com bust, but then went up thousands of percentage points afterwards. I think taking a deep breath and realizing that we are in a very, very bad war zone right now, but that there's also lots of opportunities and some of the most extreme opportunities we'll ever see in this war zone.

That's something that can keep us motivated and keep us together and level-headed You don't want to put yourself in a situation where you're like, damn it. I wish I had made better choices during this massive period where everybody was panicking and everybody unanimously agreed that stocks were done and they were done forever. We got to say stoic and do what we can to take advantage of the opportunities that we do have anyways. that caps off today's video.

I hope you have a good one and I'll see you in the next video.