Okay folks, so in this video, I want to give you a violent update on the market in place, specifically Atra, which found yet another new high today. before selling off. Then I want to discuss one 21 dollar stock that has a lot of upside. In my opinion, this is a high conviction stock that we've liked through both fud and favor.

Is it still a good stock though? Well, I'll give you my thoughts. Okay, Marquetta, people like stocks again today. Apparently you have to dial up 1.45 percent, the S P up 1.61 percent, the Nasdaq up 2.15 and the Russell Small caps up 2.04 percent. Madame Alligator had another breakout, this time to 726.

We had just declared a new momentum high yesterday at like 668. and then to see another breakout this fast is impressive impresito. But you did see a sell-off towards clubs, which carries on the previous pattern we've been seeing of adder rallying up early on and then seeing some profit taking. We were just reflecting yesterday about how in the days prior to that you were seeing a lot of profit takers suddenly decide okay, it's time to sell once you hit the six dollar region, which really suppressed rallies past that point.

But after three days in a row of breaking into the sixes, a lot of them were cleaned out and gone. a lot of them took their profits and left. But today you saw the first glimpse of the next generation of profit takers. In the sevenths, you pull up the cost distribution metrics.

From yesterday, you have the situation where 90 of shares held are profitable and when you have 90 of shares being profitable, there's going to be certain levels where you run up huge and you make people sellers. The folks that dumped after it hit into the 7 region probably weren't people that really wanted to sell into the sixes or sevens the last couple of days, but once they saw it hit seven, all of a sudden you had a rush to lock in profits which caused a downtrend and caused accelerating pressure from momentum sellers. There's also this dynamic where hey, after was a huge squeeze play last year and we covered it last year as well. But it had a long and grueling downtrend.

So you had a lot of these people who bought the stock at much higher values, who I guess you could call bag holders who saw this going up and finally are starting to get to the point where they're at break even and they're thinking, okay, well now's the time to lock in profits. I don't want to play this game anymore. You look at this chart today. the average cost basis of a holder dow is about 607 and the total profited shares are less than half again at 48.63 Again, this was the chart from yesterday.

You had a lower cost at six dollars and a much higher profited shares. Now on the flip side, one of the big pros of the sell-off today is that a lot of the folks that did want to sell onto the Sevens did sell today. Just like we had to clear all the six dollar level sellers in order to get to seven, we're probably also going to have to clear all the seven dollar sellers. and at least because of the sell-off today in the Sevens, a lot of those were given an opportunity to take profits.

But anyways, a 10 down date and a stock like this isn't much, but it's still a big down day, right? It's one of the biggest that we've seen in a while, and it not only broke back down below seven dollars, but it also broke down below six, which is something that we had retained yesterday. It is retaining a little bit higher than the previous support levels, and it's still well above five, but pay very, very close attention to where this drops to. Once again, you have an expansion of concentration at that five dollar strike price, but you also have huge expansion in the six, the 650, the seven, the 750, and the eight. Retaining five is probably enough to see this do another mini gamma squeeze.

It's probably not going to be something that's insane, but at least it'll allow you to retain values and give us a nice start to the next week. But if you really want something to break out this week and you want it to be like oh, hell broke loose, well, you're gonna want it to look like all these options are about to expire in the money. If out to retake six, retakes, seven, and then heads into eight, That's all I think it needs to really go insane. Ideally, that happens in the next two days, because if we have to wait till Friday, you have a few different odds against it.

Friday is the date of actual expiration of these contracts, so sure you could still theoretically get a nice bump in the pre-market or in the first few hours of trading. But oftentimes towards the end of that day you have people exercising their call options that are in the money and then locking in profits. And by locking in profits, what are they really doing? Well, they're dumping shares onto the market, which essentially makes it very, very easy for market makers to hedge when you have all this new supply coming on a very rotating basis. But if you broke into these levels late, tomorrow or on Thursday, you'd have the situation where you're getting very, very close to the expiration date, which is Friday.

But you also don't have a lot of people exercising. Sure, you have more people exercising on Thursday than probably would on Wednesday, but not nearly as many. So yeah, if you're looking at the setup, I would say if it holds five 550 minimum, we're game for something. If it breaks below five, the odds of a rebound are substantially lower, and I think this dies off and it has to restart itself somehow in the upcoming weeks.

But if it holds six and it bounces into seven and even gets into eight, this could be insane. Before the week ends, we'll see what happens. There's a lot going on here. I, for one, am pretty damn shocked at how well and for how long this has retained the bull setup.

Very rarely do you see stocks like this, even in the best conditions, and these conditions haven't been too good. Okay, next for the main entree. Mara. Lovely Mara.

This is a Bitcoin monitor that we've liked since 1046 a share back on January 3rd, 2021 and it's been quite a wild ride. She is a dirty little tease, but she gives and she takes. She rallied from 1046 to 58, then dropped down to the 18s, then rallied to the 80s in the fall, and then in the risk-off environment in Bitcoin sell-off she went right back down to 21 bucks. Now, the way that I look at High Conviction trades is that you have a long-term outlook on them that is very, very bullish.

You like their business, you like the fundamentals behind how they operate, you believe in their leadership, but you also accept that hey, stocks have a habit of getting extremely euphoric and extremely dysphoric. So if you can buy it when it's this fork and trim it when it's euphoric, then you could have your cake and eat it too or something like that. But the truth is the double-edged sword of stalks that are in the growth sector, and especially in the crypto mining sector like Maura. Lovely Mara is that when they're in favor, they can go up dramatically, and when they're not in favor, they can go down dramatically.

But that's kind of why we like them in the first place. Obviously, if you don't like volatility, the S P 500 would be a better bet. But the volatility is what we specifically target here. And of course, it's not just that.

Mara also has the complicating factor of being very, very closely tied to bitcoin prices, and after Bitcoin sell off from fall highs, it's basically been stagnated in range. And when you have all of these other distractions in the broader market, it's certainly hard to get capital invested in Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. And it's even harder to get capital invested in crypto miners versus. back in the day when all the euphoria was around, people were like, yeah, any price is fine, Just throw it into crypto, throw it into miners, throw it into anything an organic candle salesman says he's getting into mining.

Okay, here's a billion dollar valuation. Oh, speaking of organic candles, if you do want lifetime access to new zip trader aromas and some of the best candles you can buy that are very, very organic, as well as daily morning lighting sessions with Charlie where we all talk about the different aromas and how they make us feel. We do have a very generous coupon code down below. Why live in a place that smells like skunk when you can light a Charlie candle and get good aromas? Just kidding, we don't have candles, but we do have lifetime access to Zip Crater U coupon code.

Never give up. We'll get you a sizable discount before checkout and that expires soon. so make sure to check it out with the link below if you are interested. But the point is, when you have all these broader market distractions with Russia.

with the Fed tightening, with overall fear in broader markets and indices, it's hard for people to get excited about Mara or about Bitcoin. and who knows when the conducive environment will come back, but eventually it will. And when it does, most of these prizes will look like nothing. Mara is sitting at these support levels in the low 20s that it's been bouncing off of the last three months, and so now is the time to update you on progress with Mara and whether or not I still think she has a lot of upside and I want to do that in the context of my previous predictions and previous number estimates.

The last major breakdown I made on Morris fundamentals and corresponding price predictions based on Bitcoin mind and corresponding revenue on that was on October 17, 2021 in my video titled this Will Go Up 91, which I timed pretty decently during the momentum cycle. it went from 48 bucks at the time of shooting that video to 83.45 a few weeks later, which wasn't quite a 91 run, but it was a 74 run, which is most of the way there. But my numbers in that video and my prediction wasn't based on the whims of the market in euphoria and dysphoria cycles, but rather the business itself and what they could achieve in the upcoming years. based on different Btc prices and profit margins.

After production costs are paid for and different levels of network difficulty, you can think of more as not just the Dirty T's but also a growing Bitcoin mining company that has purchased a lot of different miners and is in the process of scaling up operation on those as she mines more and more bitcoin that Bitcoin gets held on her balance sheet. which means they could eventually be offloaded at much higher prices if Bitcoin does go on its long-term uptrend that many are projecting, including myself Now, we could certainly play the guessing game on short-term Btc prices as much as we want, but the actual value of a crypto miner has to do with how many Bitcoin it can produce and how much profit margin there is between the cost of producing each bitcoin and the cost of Bitcoin, which ideally is up here instead of down here. So if you go back to my spreadsheet last year, I had three estimates based on three different pricing and market environment scenarios. In the base case, I said Mara mines 15 000 Btc in 2022 and the alternative bear, I said 18 000.

In the Super Bowl, I said 22 000. these estimates weren't based on what Maura was doing at the time, but what she could be doing if she reaches full operational capacity, which Mara said would get you to 13.3 extra hashes per second by mid-2022 At that point, we know that Maura had already ordered a ton of miners and as they got delivered, they'd be deployed. Now that we're in April 2022, we know how that's going, and we are at a point where they are now projecting 23.3 extra hashes per second by early next year because of even more investments in miners. But here's what they reported at the latest report on April 1st.

In terms of progress: they reported they produced a record 1258 self-mine bitcoin during Q1 of 2022, which is a 556 percent increase from 191.8 self-mined bitcoin q1 of 2021, and a 15 increase from 1098 in Q4 of 2021.. Strong year-over-year increase in a fairly weak or at least lukewarm increase from Q4 of 2021 to Q1 of 2022.. And that's largely because in my view, deployment is for underestimates. Right now, it's already April 2022, and their active miners are only producing 3.9 extra hashes per second, which is far below where they should be at if they want to hit 13.3 by mid 2022, which is really just a hop, skip, and a jump away.

And even more frustrating, they announced that they had already been delivered their 93 000 bitcoin miners, but only 32 710 are in operation as of the last report. Now that last report on the total delivered was in February, and we don't know how many have been delivered since, but we do know that right now they've only got about 36 830 miners actively producing, which again is like one-third of how much they say have been delivered. Which is frustrating because if they were all in operation, you could be seeing actual numbers that they projected last year be hit, or at least get much much closer. So what is the reason for the slow deployment? Even though they have the miners? Well, this is what they said.

Marathon's current strategy is to deploy its miners predominantly behind the meter at sustainable, non-carbon emitting power solutions in an effort to maximize the uptime of the company's miners. A grid connection is being established at these locations for when the renewable power stations operate intermittently. Establishing this grid connection is a new process that required additional coordination and permitting from the various parties, including the grid operator. This extended approval process caused the deployments of Marathons miners to be delayed by approximately 45 days during the first quarter of 2022..

however, in March, the company received a word that full approval had been received, and that initial energization is expected in the coming weeks. So basically more depends on a specific grid connection and they need a certain level of coordination from other parties and regulators and the grid operator themselves. and they underestimated how long that would take. So while they have the miners, they ended up being delayed about 45 days according to their estimates in terms of actual deploying them.

But as of last month, they received full approval, and they're saying that energization is expected in the coming weeks. So in the next report, we'll see how much more rapidly they're able to scale this up. Possible that you see an insane jump in production capacity just month over month. So this is my thought process right now.

based on the numbers. We know that they're operating at about 3.6 extra hashes per second, which is incredibly low, but it's also artificially low because they weren't allowed to deploy their miners at full capacity. they only have about a third of their miners working specifically because they weren't allowed to get on that grid, but we know that they have the miners, and once they get running at the first phase of full deployment, we should see them hit that 13.3 extra hashes per second, which the numbers that we did last year are based on. But more importantly, they also have substantially more minors coming that we had factored in last year as they think that you're going to hit as high as 23.3 extra hashes per second by early 2023.

I think the extra deployment that you're going to see at the end of the year that is slated to get them to 23.3 extra hashes per second by early 2023 is going to more than make up for the loss in Bitcoin mind towards the beginning of this year. I don't doubt their ability to mine Bitcoin. I don't doubt their ability to deploy these miners that they already purchased. That's not really the challenging part of being a miner.

The challenging part is well, choosing the right cryptocurrency, hammering network difficulty and raising capital to actually buy the miners. But I think it's just a question of whether or not these regulators were going to be on their head again. But it seems like based on what they're saying here in this press release that the answer is no. They give them the green light and perhaps this could even help them streamline the process to get the other miners deployed after they already reached 13.3 So give or take network difficulty and Bitcoin's price, I would argue you have a strong likelihood that your next quarters are going to see double or triple digit growth in Bitcoin mind, and the next year.

If you're looking at this from a multi-year perspective, you'll probably be ahead of the curve or at least on track for 2023 numbers since you should have substantially a higher hash rate than we had factored in. We did all the numbers based on 13.3 because I wanted to see it hit that deployment first before I factored in another level of deployment. and I don't even think they announced the data at that point where they were even saying 23.3 But that gives them a decent amount of time and margin for error for both Bitcoin to work out its prices, but also for Maura to actually deploy these miners that they have. My viewpoint is that more lovely Maura has been beat down heavily because of Bitcoin's drop, because of the risk-off environment, because of delays in deployment, and because it's just not a trusted sector.

Right now, people are rushing towards companies that are very, very safe. But I think if you do believe that eventually we will be in a risk on environment and that Bitcoin will have a longer overall uptrend. I believe that Maura will be one of the biggest benefactors of that, and I think the market is overly discounting that right now. They say everybody is a in a bear market because you can do whatever math you want.

whenever fundamentals, you can project whatever you want, but the stock is still going to go down if you're in a bear market. and that's what we're in for the Bitcoin market, and that's what we're in for the growth market. But the point is, if you're gonna do diligence on a convection plate, you have to look at it from a longer term perspective. Anyways, folks, that caps off today's video, let me know what your favorite plays are down below.

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