Okay folks, so we have to give a violent update on what just happened today. We'll also be updating on plays like Rivie and my thought process on when it's a good idea to buy as well as another stock that just beat our earnings expectations. And then for the main entree, we need to talk about whether the sheep is dead. I have some new telling data on how many addresses are profitably holding this and I want to walk you through a new trend that I see appearing and how that relates to my new price prediction.

My goal isn't to encourage people to buy or sell but is rather to inform and the only thing that I ask in return for all this is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe either. Okay, Marquette, continuing to breathe the S P, The Dow, and especially the Nasdaq. this is as the inflation narrative started playing and again and pricing pressure growth is the hottest that we've seen since June 2021. It trended up in August from 0.3 to 0.4 and now jumped all the way to 0.9 on all items.

As an average food price acceleration one of the most important line items, at least for the individual, has been a disaster 5.3 year-over-year Quite a mess, especially for fixed income folks who haven't gotten a raise and are still having to pay higher and higher prices for their day-to-day items that they need to survive. You can see where a large portion of this up trending is stemming from energy energy costs as a whole up 4.8 and fuel oil up 12.3 And this is motivating the pricing pressures that you're seeing everywhere else and the supply chain crisis and the labor shortage. All of these things are showing in this data very very heavily. But remember, if consumers are spending more and more of a percentage of their income on things like gas, food, and rent, what are they not spending money on? Well, discretionary things and consumer confidence in a lot of the other areas of the market go down.

The market had a nice rally after the last Fed speech because the market's like, hey, we were expecting maybe two three interest rate hikes in 2022. The Fed seems to be a little bit of a princess at fighting inflation, so we're not so worried about that. But then you see these numbers running in very, very hot. and what is the market thinking they're like, Oh, maybe the Fed was wrong.

Maybe the Fed's downplaying is like they downplayed the inflation numbers that we'd see towards the end of the year. So really, you have a market that's just trying to debate exactly how long this inflationary pressure is going to continue and the growth rates are going to trend up like this. Inflation scares are probably going to ebb and flow for the next couple quarters, if not the next couple of years. My take is love the volatility.

Play the volatility and enjoy the uncertainty. If you have a high conviction play that you believe in over five to ten years, a little bit of back and forth now doesn't really matter. Okay, moving on. So the big story stock of today was Rivian.

If you want to see my full breakdown of reviewing I did about a week ago, I'll go ahead and link to the video below, but essentially today, an ipod and got so much attention and capital flocking to it that it hit a 100 billion dollar evaluation turned it into the biggest ipo of the year and some reports say since 2014. they have so much capital, so much backing, and so much free marketing that their management would have to be morons to screw this one up. I think that you also saw a lot of those other growth momentum traders that were playing Tesla the last couple of weeks or some of the other growth stocks the last couple of weeks. take profits on those, and then go and pour into Rivian as the next hot thing.

projections. Well, after the hype dies off, I'd expect the prices to stagnate somewhere around where Rivian originally wanted to ipo at somewhere in the high 50s. That's where investors will find some psychological support, But after that's broken in a down cycle, that's when you're going to start seeing a lot of good deals, and when we're going to run a spreadsheet analysis and put a price target on it. I'd say in totality, buying Rivian right now is like buying Tesla a week ago.

Sure, it'll probably pay off if you wait long enough, but it's not the most efficient time to do it. Okay, so fly so far. We had some great news on earnings today, and unlike the other plays that reported good numbers, this one actually didn't drop and I had fairly lukewarm expectations. Most of Sofia's best catalysts are into next year, but stuff.

I actually shine quite a lot today and the reaction showed in the after hours. What's important with these fintech players is Members, Members, members. Everybody's competing in this market for members, and if they can get the members and retain the members, then they can sell them. Their products and member growth continues to be on fire.

Second highest quarterly growth in company history, but their financial services sector is picking up steam quite a lot. and the one sector that is more mature and grows slower is lending. But that should bounce massively in Q1. So you're really only seeing the growth of one of their sectors.

But the main sector that they're known for at least traditionally has basically been held behind a dam because of the student loan freezes. But once those expire in February, a lot of people are going to want to refinance, especially before those interest rates kick in. and I think you're going to see a massive massive bounce in Q1 and Q2. But in any case, this definitely earned an upgrade from our previous 22 price target and I'm gonna be working on that tonight.

If you are in zip trader u make sure to check the briefing 30 minutes prior to market open for the upgrade and the reasoning behind the upgrade, but let's just say 22 dollars is definitely under doing it for it. Okay, now it's time for the sheave. There's so many people asking me to cover the sheep and my thoughts on the sheep. and like every other comment that I would be cold-hearted not to cover it.

and there's some very, very interesting data here behind the surface in regards to who's holding this, how long they're holding this, and how much capital is in the green right now. But essentially for context, sheep has done not much of anything, but it has continued to at least retain relative value, which is incredibly impressive considering the market cap in excess of 20 billion, which basically appeared out of nowhere in the last couple of months. My projection so far on the number of unique holders steadily increasing has also been trending in the correct way, with it reaching over 900 000 for the first time here. My take is that as time goes on, retail adoption will continue and you'll have more and more unique addresses similar to how does traded.

As a result, you'll have a slow reduction in the concentration of whales. So into the block reports the level of traders who hold less than one month in orange and in pink, the level of what they call cruisers who hold more than a month and up to 12 months. Blue would be holders for over a year, but Chibi Inu doesn't have that many holders since it hasn't really been around a year for most of the people. But what you essentially have today is 575k addresses who are holding one month plus 334k who are traders and you could see during certain areas of euphoria, the number of traders in it dramatically outpaced the other demographic Because you had a lot of that short-term momentum money that sees something running, wants to write that running and then gets out quick and you compare this to Dogecoin, for example, Dogecoin has 4x the addresses, and thus the holders and cruisers in blue and pink outweigh the shock of new Momentum traders much better.

But what's important is that Doge was able to retain some of those traders in later months If you look at Doge's cruisers by the time held, despite Doge pump and dumping during this time span, well from January to November, it steadily climbed up month over month. What does that mean? It creates retention value? The story of Dogecoin, if you want to call it a shotcoin or not, the story of its relative price stability that nobody said was possible is rooted in the fact that the number of people holding it has consistently increased quarter over quarter. At this point, roughly ninety percent of addresses that hold Doge are holding for more than a month or more than a year, and thus it's able to more than absorb selling shocks after momentum rallies. And that sounds obvious.

but you go back to the Sheep. You had the opposite problem. in the last month. holders increased into September, but once the massive rally really happened, some locked in profits and it dropped.

But then what happened? Well, in November it picked up again. If this continues to pick up, Sheba is building a strong foundation like Doge did and sets it up for higher and higher rallies. If we get to say, two million addresses and retail adoption continues, what does that mean? How many of those addresses are going to convert into future holders for the sheep? Well, if it continues at the current 63 rate, somewhere around 63 percent of those new addresses are going to convert into holders in Coshiba to stabilize at higher and higher prices. The reason that I'm so interested in this is because when I first started covering Doge, I did not realize the staying potential that it had.

and the reason is because I overlooked the amount of holders and the steady uptrend of holders. If you have a steady uptrend of holders and you get more adoption and that percentage stays consistent, what happens? Well, you get higher and higher retention value. I thought with Doge that you'd see a massive massive rally and then everybody would take profits and then it would go back down to like nothing. But if I had just looked at the wall of holders, I would have had a different analysis.

And that's what I'm trying to analyze with Sheep, which is, I think a very, very bullish point. There's a lot of things that I don't like about cheap, but that is one thing that I do like about it. But why are people holding well? It really comes down to a breakdown of the price You see. 74 of addresses holding cheap are sitting on profits.

They're in the green. Eight point eight, two percent are at break even. And statistically, retail traders are much, much more likely to hold something that they're green on than to hold something that they're read on. When you start losing money that you put into something, your heart starts hurting, you're thinking, wait a second.

I'm losing money, I don't want to lose more money, This is going down, it's going down, and then guess what happens while they sell out. But when you're green, you're like, hey, while I'm playing with houses money, there's still a lot more room that it could drop and I'd still be at break even. so, who cares. Whereas retail traders who sit on massive massive losses, well, the longer that they're read, the more likely they are to sell bone, You have the vast majority of addresses.

They're deep in the green and also have held through previous downtrending because it is down from all-time highs. While these are people that didn't want to lock in profits at the top, these are people who have decided that they want to hold and they have loyalty to sheep because they're holding at these prices. I also think that in terms of the 16 or so that are read, I think that there's a higher acknowledgement of this as a gamble play. I don't think this is the same thing as a company when it goes down massively and people are like, okay, it's a shite company I'm gonna sell and then it comes back three months later and it triples.

I think this is a situation where most people understand that this is a dog coin and people are basically gambling on a spec play and I think that as a result of that, people have a much higher pain tolerance and the people that didn't are probably already gone. But as a total, new addresses have gone up despite the price going down, suggesting more retail adoption. I'd speculate that a lot of these holders that are still in the green over here are going to stay in it unless the price goes so low that it starts spooking some of the much earlier stage adopters and they start rug pulling. So for retention, I'd argue that each of these levels has built-in loyalty and it's going to have to go pretty far down here to really start start killing that retention.

Our attention is nice to talk about and everything and doge has had very, very solid retention. But if it doesn't really move and it's just retaining, that's not very helpful is it? There's two parts you need the retaining value that shows proof of concept, and then you need some sort of catalyst to bring in momentum to bring in a lot of that sideline capital that's watching into this crypto. Robin Hood was the big catalyst that people were waiting for. But what did Robin would say? They said due to uncertain, volatile market conditions, listing sheep might result in significant losses over a short period of time and possibly liquidation problems and adverse events of sudden price drops or trading halts.

However, you give this some time some retention and you allow it to continue with this market cap, and then it's going to be a no-brainer for them to list it. As long as there's a catalyst with the biscuit on the end of the horizon, you're going to have some people that are waiting in this just to see what happens on that catalyst. But I would argue that as we head into the end of the year, a lot of marketing departments are going to be hammering on the fact that one crypto went up millions of percentage points and then they're going to say hey, you could trade this on our platform and if just something sets this off, you're going to see all these people that wanted to get in and wanted to play the momentum start playing it again. Now a lot of people think it's gross to even talk about dog coins and that's fine, but at the end of the day, what are these dog coins really doing? well? They're creating this opportunity to attract a lot of retail traders that may otherwise never have messed with Crypto, but they're like, oh, this went up hundreds of thousands of percentage points.

I want to learn a little bit more about what this is and maybe they take a spec play on it, but for the most part, what do they do? They learn more about the crypto space and over time they start becoming more and more knowledgeable about an emerging asset class. They start learning about crowd psychology and good and bad entry prices. They learn about controlling their emotions, and hopefully they start learning about the tech behind it, which then leads them to players like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some of the up-and-comers like Ada. And sure, there's some people that take spec plays too far betting the house, but I think that for most people they bet a small amount and they learn a lot about it and they get a lot bigger return if not in the spec coin then in a lot of the other coins.

And for somebody who's well versed on crypto, well, you probably already know that Spec plays are really just dessert. After you have a hearty meal of high conviction currencies, it's fine to have a little bit of dessert on the side. Anyways, folks that caps off the video. if you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us below or join us on Ziptrader Circle if you'd like to learn how to trade.

With our private chat, our daily morning briefings, as well as our step-by-step lessons where we will walk you through everything that you need to know in order to learn how to better trade and manage your account in the stock of market. Well, we'll go ahead and put a link to Ziptrader you below. This is not the type of course where you can buy it and get away without doing any work. This is something where you're expected to put a ton of work in and effort to get any sort of result.

When I buy something, you better bet that I get every single dollar worth out of it, and I expect the same from you. Anyways, have a good one and I'll see you in the next video.