Okay folks, we've got a lot of violence coming and I've got the mug to match today. Such flavor. We need to give a violent update on the market in place including Oogabooga Amc which has finally woken up today, as well as what the heck is going on with this car and Bbby detonation. And then for the main entree.

This lovely evening, I want to discuss a specific Amazon backed Ev company that has a massive massive pre-order log is going to be ipoint very, very soon and in my opinion has a very, very competitive edge and I want to compare the numbers to Lucid and explain why. I believe it's going to be a huge stinking deal and the only thing that I ask in return for all this is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe either. Okay, great day for the market. Overall, you had some concentrated breathing in some of the growth sectors ahead of that Fed decision or announcement tomorrow.

Our Mara, lovely Mara, play up another 14 who's been enjoying her alleys. She reported this morning a 23 increase in mind Bitcoin month over month. total hash rate exceeded 3.0 extra hash per second in October, and it's on the right track. Mara dropped off a bit in terms of Bitcoin production in September because Bitcoin's price started rallying massively, which led to higher and higher rates of difficulty.

But now that they're bouncing back in terms of production despite higher network difficulty, really shows how much they're going to be able to produce when Bitcoin goes back down again, but also shows their staying power in terms of strength. As a miner, she said, given the number of minors expected to ship and the steps we have taken to prepare for their deployment, we believe that the Fourth Quarter will be a transformative time for our business, and we look forward to continuing to scale our mining operations. So she's heading into a good year. And in terms of production, remember though, just because she's going up right now doesn't mean she's not going to go back to teasing mode.

My price Target is based on what she's going to be producing at peak deployment, which isn't going to be reached until mid 2022. This is a play that we've loved all year at much, much lower prices. and she's gone back and forth sometimes in excess of 50. So you never, ever ever want to buy something just because it's going up at the end of the day.

It's so easy to buy something when it's going up because people are like, oh well, I see the value now that everybody else sees it, but that's the worst time to buy it if you see the value now. Great, but wait to get a good deal. Moving on. Carr aka Avis got Squeeze Mcsqueeze today with a surprising beat on earnings and share buyback announcement that really really caused the raucous we did brief on it in the pre-market within the update section, but it was only in the context of a surprising beat we said topped revenue expectations by more than 60.

I thought that based on that insane Beat news that you could potentially see maybe 10 20 percent of inflows and yes, shorts had been turning up the heat for weeks, which I thought made it more likely for that to happen. What I did not know is that those buying inflows would go and reveal a ton of overly leveraged shorts that would go running for the hills because they had pushed themselves far too far in this position. I also didn't see coming in the massive massive swarm of social media buyers in this, so certainly lots of luck. But what we do in the briefing every single morning is map out a battleground showing certain catalysts and news events and setups that may have legs throughout the day.

That way, when battles start developing, you know the foundation of why they're developing what they're developing from, and you have an organized map to say. Okay, well, where are they and what are they doing? As you know, you can't take a random approach to the stock market if you're not in our program, I 100 recommend that you do this on your own because it's very, very valuable if you show up every single day. certain market conditions aren't going to be as hot. some are going to be very, very hot Right now we're getting into a very very hot market condition.

but anyways, moving on to trend when one squeeze stock shows massive, massive proof of concept. What happens when you start getting a lot of sympathy rallies and other squeeze stocks where people start anticipating the next squeezer. Bbby further accelerated that trend today as they announced their own earnings beat and share buyback and exploded in the after hours. And you've already seen Ooga Booga! Amc react.

Who is happy to see some movement in the damn Ogabuga? It's really been a war of attrition, but now we're in the most interesting setup that we've seen in weeks. and Oogabooga. Amc has its earnings on Monday the 8th, which is this coming Monday, and it's seen some continued strength this week back into the 40s for the first time in a while. They just reported a record month since the start of the pandemic and short sellers were banking on customers never coming back to the theaters and constant bad headlines to get people out of this position.

Unfortunately for them, that hasn't happened. Some people like Amc, some people don't. The whole point of Amc is what it represents. and then the potential squeeze at the end of the day.

The goal of short sellers in this position is 100 to make sure that people lose enthusiasm and go home. And now we're in a boom for potential enthusiasm. I would not be surprised if the massive rally on earnings beat trend continues in a lot of these stocks that have been beat down massively or at least have been attacked by short sellers massively. I think that with earnings coming up and with what happened to Bbby and Carr this week, Amc is going to see a ton more attention.

The deferred game can only be effective if there's not enough buying pressure present. But eventually, when that buying pressure comes back, what happens? Well, the narrative starts playing out. Now for the main entree. So if you watched part-time cowboy and full-time Mistress collector Jeff Bezos launch into space earlier this year, you may have noticed him being transported in these funky looking Suvs.

If you watch the recent William Shatner launch, you may have noticed similar looking funky pickup trucks trucks looking like Mars Rovers heading into a very, very well publicized launch with people watching these launches all over the world. Trust me, these were no coincidences. They were getting free ad time on nearly every station and placing the subliminal message that's similar to the space launch. These trucks symbolize adventure in the future.

This was Product placement 101. And what does blue origin have to do with Rivie and will? One thing. Jeff Bezos Mr. Bezos oversaw Amazon's decision to take a 20 stake in the company.

Jeff Bezos, while still Ceo in 2019, also oversaw the ordering of a hundred thousand custom Rivian delivery vehicles for Amazon. For a company that wants to electrify its fleet, owning a large stake in the manufacturer makes a lot of sense because working with Amazon means that you have a massive, massive client and makes it so that you're very, very likely to succeed Using Review Origin is a great way to cross promote brands, and it also highlights the intense edge that Rivien hats. And in totality, Rivian, unlike a lot of similar Ev startups, is entering the industry with top-tier clients again, like Amazon. lots of capital, proven vehicles, connections, and high places and free marketing to boot.

Not to mention the vehicles are attempting to attack a certain segment, the Ev Suv market, which is very, very underdeveloped. What's unique about Rivian in my view, is that they are the first electric vehicle company to really attack a big part of America's car culture. in the U.s there's a huge demand for rugged vehicles that could be taken off the road, handle snow rock, mud, and get pushed to the limits in the outdoors, but also take the day-to-day beating with kids and donks. Darivian's own Sec filing states that trucks and Suvs are the fastest growing and most profitable automotive segment.

Trucks and Suvs comprise over 70 percent of new vehicle sales in the Us and account for most the profits generated by incumbent automobile manufacturers. And I think the current Ev offerings in the Us doesn't really have a match for this segment. doesn't have something to appeal to this subsection of American carbine culture, which is massive and moving on in terms of range. The pickup truck is 314 miles and the Suv is 317 miles both zero to 60 and three seconds.

According to Rivian, I think the range can be approved some, but the performance is very, very good and so needless to say, the value add here is. well, their Suvs, their pickup trucks, and then the commercial vehicles that are going to be favored by Amazon. It's a solid combo and leads to diversification in terms of multiple sectors of the Ev market. But here's where the fun stops.

Of course, the fun always has to stop because there's always a catch. The numbers are bad. Estimates are saying that Rivien will be priced at a valuation near 55 billion with their 135 million shares priced somewhere between 57 and 62. Some estimates are saying its valuation could hit upwards of 60 billion and that could certainly change, but ipos are usually created with the idea of pumping up investor interest throughout the year prior to the ipo and then eventually everybody's excited.

Everybody's really, really hyped on this new company and then after the elevated ipo, a lot of retail will then go and buy the elevated ipo, rallying it up a lot more because of the new hype. I think this is no different. This is going to be an ipo that's going to see a very, very aggressive push in valuation prior to launch, and then it's going to be something that sees a lot of hype flows that then cool off over the upcoming weeks and months. I think this company is going to do very, very well, but you want to pay prices that make sense for what you're getting Now right now, they're still operating in massive losses.

We don't know how well they're going to be able to ramp up demand. That being said, it is one of the most competitive and up-and-coming companies with one of the best business models that I've seen. So that begs the question. What is the fair price for Rivian and how high can it go? Well, Rivian is attempting to take some of the strategies out of Tesla's playbook with an ecosystem based on an approach of providing not just vehicles, but also software and services on a recurring revenue scale, but for valuing purposes.

Let's just start with deliveries because you need to deliver first before those start showing any value. They currently have 55 400 non-commercial pre-orders in the Us, of which they said in their filing they expect to deliver on by 2023. They also have 100 000 orders from Amazon, of which they said they can fulfill by 2025.. they've already begun delivering on a very, very small scale, but it's pretty much irrelevant.

Let's just spread out the numbers for simplicity. on to the upcoming years. We have very little information to go off of, so I improvised a bit in terms of how the numbers were going to lay out based on what I've seen with other manufacturers. But the end result is the same based on their projections.

With personal deliveries, you see 10 000 delivered in 2022 and 45 000 in 2023. With commercial deliveries, you see 10 000 in 2022 and 20 000 in 2023. The rest happen in the next couple years 2024 and 2025. but because we don't have those same deliveries for the time span on personal vehicles, we'll just focus on the first two years here.

You add up the total projected deliveries by year end 2023 in both personal and commercial segments, and you're sitting at somewhere around 85 000 deliveries. You pull up the lucid numbers that we ran a week or so ago. The projection was 20 000 deliveries in 2022, 49 000 deliveries in 2023. you add those up, What do those come out to? They come out to 69 000 and using both of these companies, bullish estimates here.

it appears that Rivian is delivering more, despite most likely trading around the same market cap upon open and at the same time, the advantage of Rivien is you get a little bit more diversification sense. Not only do you have the personal vehicle segment, but you also have the commercial vehicle segment. and their main client is Amazon. and Amazon's not going to walk away from them since they have a 20 stake here.

That said, on the flip side, I have to argue That I don't know that I trust their delivery estimates In order to fulfill 55 000 orders. they have to scale up massively in 2022 and 2023. And if you can't do that, then you're not going to hit these estimates by the end of 2023.. I think that in effect, Riven's estimates could easily stretch out a year or 18 months more than their actual promises.

We just don't have enough information on their production capacity or proof of concept as to them rolling it out. with Lucid We do. We see deliveries. We see a lot of their scaling up that they've been promising happening now.

But, but that said, Rivien is very, very well capitalized. This ipo will bring in a ton more capital. I don't think that they're going to struggle very much at getting the job done. I just think it's going to take a little bit longer than they're projecting, regardless of whether that happens in 2022 and 2023, or whether that happens more into 24 and 25.

I think that you start looking at the bigger picture here. Well, once manufacturing does come together for Rivien, what else happens? Well, all of their other business models start working really, really well because all of these vehicles start getting into that ecosystem: the Rivien cloud, their reoccurring software services, their mobile service centers, their insurance so on, and so forth. similar to the Tesla model, and eventually, of course, Autonomy. So anyways, if you're bullish on the Ev sector, I think that in totality, both of these offer a very, very interesting deal with a long enough time horizon.

I think that right now Riving is going to be way way way way too pricey in order to get compensated for the risk that you're taking with an early stage company. But after it cools off from its ipo maybe 20 30 it's gonna be screaming by and we'll run the numbers When we actually have the full set, the total addressable market between regular and commercial is huge, and the backing the already built customer base with Amazon, the products that they already have and specs on said products makes the case that this is going to be a big big player anyways. that caps off the video. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us below or join us on Ziptrader Circle if you'd like to learn how to trade.

With our private chat, our daily morning briefings, as well as our step-by-step lessons where we will walk you through everything that you need to know in order to learn how to better trade and manage your account in the stock of market. Well, we'll go ahead and put a link to Zip Trader you below. This is not the type of course where you can buy it and get away without doing any work. This is something where you're expected to put a ton of work in and effort to get any sort of result.

When I buy something, you better bet that I get every single dollar worth out of it and I expect the same from you anyways. have a good one and I'll see you in the next video.