Okay folks, so we need to give a violent update on the market and plays. And then for the main entree this evening. I want to discuss one very specific very popular stock in the retail community that just started making deliveries. If that gave it away and I believe the share price will go up about 73 from here.

I'll explain my reasons my math and my bull and Bear price targets. The only thing that I ask in return for all this is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe either. Okay, a bit of a teaser day. a little bit of back and forth ooga booga.

Amc has been pretty flat. Crypto a little mixed with the exception of the Holy Shiba Hood sold off into the after Hours today. On news of lighter crypto trading, I'm sure some of you were happy to hear that they may actually have to take away the sell button this time. That being said, I'm very interested to see how these numbers are going to look when we start factoring in the Quarter with this massive crypto boost.

Coinbase's stock has largely benefited from that correlation, but Robin Hoods hasn't, so we'll see in the next quarterly report. not many euphoria runners today. Although I was happy with Lidr, we briefed on this one 30 minutes prior to market open at about 5.48 a share. This was, as analysts at Roth Capital pointed out their differentiated sensor technology and the growing market for it in the automotive business.

I was thinking oop, Okay, big analyst talking about a small cap company, big hype sector. Okay, now we're ready to play. And it did end up going from that 548 to 919 in the first hour or so of trading before people started taking profits. Pretty nice for a morning runner, certainly one that emphasizes the need to do risk management when it comes especially to short-term positions.

Update on Ocg and so on Sunday's video We spoke about how this is the last week for the Who approval on the stock, if they meet their October deadline, that is. We of course also gave the heads up in the daily morning briefings as well. Then yesterday it went from the low eights up to 13 23 this morning, which is roughly a 55 jump on speculation of said event. And that's the thing.

So much of market research and market success is just making yourself well aware of Catalyst before the rest of the packets, or at least before it's done running. Certainly no exact science to that, but that is what we try to do in our pre-market briefings for Zip, Trader Eu members, as well as the daily recaps on the channel. But anyways, now in the aftermath of the run, it's sold off back to nine as the decision has gotten delayed to November 3rd, which is next Wednesday if the people here hyped it up to 1323 on speculation of an approval. That could have happened today though, saying people may decide to come back for a speculation on approval.

next week and in the days leading up to that, we'll continue to follow. this. Prague had doubled in the pre-market on news that they had reduced their outstanding debt by 20 million. It pumped hard and then it sold off into open and closed.

The Czech people were very, very happy, but then they got a little bit sadder. But hey, honestly, you're looking at this chart. This isn't easy. This is not an easy play at all.

You're playing with fire here. This is very, very difficult to manage risk and it's something that quite frankly could turn against you very, very rapidly. So as always, if you're going to play it, make sure you have very, very tight risk management. And remember, most risk management is fairly ineffective in the pre-market and after hours stop losses don't work.

trading's a lot more sporadic. It's difficult to really get a quote on where it should be if there was actual volume in it. Okay, now it's time for the main entree. Lucid.

So Lucid has started delivering cars to customers and they are going to be in Consumers driveways for the first time. This is a company that we've liked since basically day two of hearing the rumors that it was going to go public via Cciv and that was right after it exploded to about 15 bucks a share. That hype cycle and that rumor mill continued on for quite a while heading up into the 60s, and then it sold off as the merger details came out and people stopped speculating on it. But now we're sitting in October 26.

Lucid is delivering vehicles and the stock itself is just being a little stagnaty stagnator and with the backdrop of supreme leader Tesla hitting insane market cap levels at over a trillion bucks, you may be wondering if Up and Come or Lucid at 42 billion has a little bit of room to grow. After all, they have a competitive vehicle with industry-leading battery range performance, and I'd argue the top two other cars in the segment that have done uniformly well are the Tesla Model S and the new Porsche Tycoon. Lucid's battery range outpaces both comes down to the plot. The plot is a little bit better in terms of 0-60 and top speed, but still certainly very, very competitive and many would argue better value, especially when you get down to comparing some of their lower priced versions of the air.

But anyways, folks here are the numbers for a Bull Case on Lucid Based on the company's own production guidelines. these run 2021 through 2026.. Now for the second data set. keep in mind that I used a bearish case.

I subtracted 25 from these delivery numbers each year besides the current year. That way you can get a better idea of what happens if they dramatically miss on these estimates and what I would say the fair value is in those bear case situations. But anyways, let's start with the bull case first. in 2021, you get 577 deliveries, which they say comes out to about 97 million in revenue.

In 2022, you get 20 000 deliveries, which they say comes out to 2.2 billion in revenue. In 2023, you get the introduction of Lucid's Suv, The Gravity and with that, 49 000 in deliveries, 5.5 billion in revenue 2024. Most of the effect of the gravity kicks in and you get 90 000 in deliveries, just under 10 billion in revenue. 2025.

They kick off other models and hit 135 000 deliveries just under 14 billion in revenue 2026. These models start really showing on Total sales revenue hits 23 billion. Now notice the average price per car sold. You see very clearly that they're trying to offload their most expensive vehicles first, and then as it goes down the line, you see that average cost be brought down and it becomes a little bit more mass-market but it's still in the upper tier for luxury after this period.

If they wanted to really grow, they need to start getting a little bit more mass market in my opinion. But we'll see what happens now in Asterix. Once you get to 2024, the numbers start getting real foofy real quickly because they start introducing new models starting with again, the Project Gravity Suv and they have reasonable expectations for launch year, which is 2023. But all of a sudden you get into 2024 and they're projecting a 4x in sales, which is way too foofy in my view, at least for them to say, Because guess what, we don't know how it's going to fare against the competition.

We don't know anything about its specs. And then in 2025, they're saying that they're going to be introducing a lot more models and again, they're factoring that into the future estimates. which is even more foofy because now you have even more models that haven't tested demand or have any specs out for them yet. And they're trying to forecast based on little to no information on what that's going to look like in the marketplace in 25 and 26..

So I would say in 2021 and 2022 and 2023, that's where you start getting a lot of reasonable and realistic expectations. A little bit optimistic, but definitely realistic. and you have actual data to back that up. because we know the vehicle that's being sold.

We know the demand so far, we know the specs of it and how it stacks up with competitors. And in 2023, the numbers on the gravity are fairly low, and I think that's reasonable for an introductory model, even if it's not that competitive. But after that, it starts getting real foofy. Hopefully they can do well.

I just don't have enough information to say they will, and so I'm not going to. But anyways, I factored in some dilution for the shares outstanding, fairly substantial dilution, and I ran two different categories based on two different multiple sets on what I see as a realistic value for an early stage developing company like this that is just starting to show proof of concept and is in a rapidly growing industry. And then I ran what I would think is a euphoric condition for a stock like this. Generally speaking, smaller stage developing companies tend to trade at much higher multiples.

Tesla is a little bit of an outlier in that it's so massively capitalized right now, but when it comes down to something like Lucid, it's a lot earlier stage and it could definitely bounce well over the price multiple of Tesla right now. Obviously, it's way over the price multiple of Tesla because it's not doing any revenue. But anyways, I expect for Lucid to enjoy 15 to 30 x multiples for the majority of the time as the eevee industry matures. Right now, we have such exponential growth rates in terms of adoption of the electric vehicle, that a multiple like this, while it could be stupid in some other fields, isn't really stupid in a industry that's growing so rapidly.

I mean, if this doubles every few years, your multiple can't just be based on the company itself, but it also has to be based on the industry of which it's growing in, because if your company can get a sizable chunk of a pie today, and that pie triples in 10 years, then obviously, even if the company did nothing to grow their market share, well, it now has a much bigger piece of pie. But in any case, based on the numbers that we have right now, Lucid obviously hasn't earned much. In 2022 numbers, you're looking at 19 in the fair value case, 38 in the Euphoric. In 2023 numbers, you're looking at 45 in the fair value case, and just under 91 in the Euphoric.

From 2024 onward, it starts scaling up rapidly from 77 to 104 to 170, and euphoric, it goes from 129 209 to 341. But again, 24, 25, 26. It gets a little foofy. Okay, I think what you're looking at right now with the stock price of Lucid is a market that's trying to anticipate what sales are going to be at in 2023.

It's looking at the fair value in 2023 as we move through 2022.. you're looking at the market saying, hey, wait a second. We see the massive adoption of Evs. We see the production capacity of Lucid.

We see the demand that Lucid has shown so far. It looks like these 2022 numbers are more or less in the back. So we're starting to look at those 2023 numbers as we move into 2022. The market's going to be forward looking into that, And so I'm setting my 2022 price target at 45.59 in the bull case if they meet deliveries again.

Now in the bear case, I took deliveries down 25 each year excluding present year 2021. I kept the average price and multiplied out the lower deliveries by the average sale price to get the expected revenue. Using the reduced numbers for reduced deliveries, I came out to a price target in 2022 of 34.20 And finally, what if we get into an environment where you have a growth crash 2.0 where the Fed decides to really put the hammer down like we saw in January, what would the price target be then? Well, I ran the numbers and I calculated a 2022 price target at roughly negative 1 million a share. For lucid, I think that would be a fair price if we do get another growth crash at least negative 1 million a share.

You buy it today for 25, You may end up oweing the broker about a million bucks a share in fair value based on the numbers that we're calculating, but that crash would only be transitory, so don't worry too much about that. Jokes aside, in a situation where you get a stronger growth crash in 2022, you simply get to a lower multiple 15x. 2022. Sales were pretty standard during the deepest depths of the scare this year for Lucid, and if a downward rotation comes in mid 2022, and it follows the trajectory that the previous one did, you'd be looking at 2023's multiple, and that would put it somewhere between the 1935 to 45 dollar range.

Now in a really really bad growth crash, obviously you can break even that 15x multiple, but still, that would just be a great buying opportunity. I think that overall, with fear, fud or favor aside, a healthy outlook for this stock in 2022 is 45 and that's about my price target. Also, if you like our price targets, we do have a longer list of price targets all of our price targets actually in our high conviction place and Zip Trader U for members if that is something that interests you, I do reveal a small portion of them on the channel, but in Zip Trader U, we have the full list each of the price targets broken down by conviction level A, B, C, D plus rated place. Anyways, folks, that's it for today.

If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us below or join us on Ziptrader Circle if you'd like to learn how to trade. With our private chat, our daily morning briefings, as well as our step-by-step lessons where we will walk you through everything that you need to know in order to learn how to better trade and manage your account in the stock of market. Well, we'll go ahead and put a link to Zip Trader You below. This is not the type of course where you can buy it and get away without doing any work.

This is something where you're expected to put a ton of work. in and effort to get any sort of result. When I buy something, you better bet that I get every single dollar worth out of it. I expect the same from you Anyways, have a good one and I'll see you in the next video.