Okay, folks who loves this recent market? We got to give an update on what's going on and plays. Then for the main entree, I want to talk about one specific 11 stock that has been beat down about 77 from recent highs earlier this year, but has started running a bit today and is reporting earnings next week, which I believe could prove to be a turnaround point for the company and the stock. This is also a stock that has been bought up by Kathy Wood at Arc Invest quite a lot in the last two weeks. I want to run by you my numbers as well as my reasoning for why the stock is dramatically undervalued.

and the only thing that I ask in return for all this is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe either. Marquetta Pretty damn nice these days. More risk on trading across the board. You got the S P, the Dow, the Nasdaq, the Roski's Green.

Everywhere you have charge point scene inflows, eevee go up. loose it up again. Xpev up a lot as analysts speculate on their Flying Car prototype, but more importantly, some of their new positioning tactics to get them closer to Tesla. I haven't upgraded my Zippy Prize target for this one yet, but we may be doing that very very soon.

maybe ahead of that next earnings date that's going to be coming in early November. Tesla made some big news today as Hertz ordered a hundred thousand Tesla Model 3s in a 4.2 billion deal. If you divide 4.2 billion by a hundred thousand, you get about 42 000 per Tesla Model 3, which is about the new heightened Msrp that was just raced. That suggests that Hertz didn't get any discount on this and they're paying top dollar.

Usually rental car companies get massive fleets at a discount because they're ordering it in bulk. With Tesla. they're like, no, we don't have any problems with demand, we're just gonna sell it to you at the regular price. Funny, you look at the stock price and you think back six months ago when all the analysts and all the mainstream media were talking about how Tesla had far outpaced the growth of Ev adoption, and how all the Ev hype was overblown and now it's basically doubled from those prices.

And thanks to Tesla hitting a trillion dollars in market cap, Elon Musk is now worth about a quarter trillion dollars. However, he better get himself to Mars real fast before they start taxing unrealized stock gains. Moving on, you saw Dwack and the Dwack Trump sympathy trend explode in the pre-market before getting overall whacked or dwacked, rather, in the market hours. In last night's video, we were talking about ticker symbol mark and how it was running up dramatically into after hours close on Friday because traders were speculating on a continued rally and positive news cycle over the weekend that would induce a massive buying storm come pre-market open on Monday and that is exactly what happened.

It exploded from just under three bucks to ten dollars within the first two hours of trading and then folks took profits and it sold off. You could say it got dwacked. I wish that it had stayed around for longer. I don't like it when it just pumps in the pre-market and then dumps the market open.

That is my least favorite. A lot of the Trumper stocks did that today, but this one certainly left a mark in the pre-market Ha. Too many puns, but the Trump Trend's latest to raw this morning was very, very intense. It spread all the way to Ctrd which is an Nft stock that literally blew up like 70 on news that they were selling an Nft of Trump with an exuberant blonde lady.

For like the last couple hours of pre-market open, people are just buying everything related to Trump Prague breaking out again to post crash highs as retail fights short sellers all the way to the bank. This has been very, very aggressive. As an out performer, I continue to see Prague attempting newer and newer highs. But let's be pragmatic here.

This is driven by a lot of retail sentiment traders on retail forums, and my viewpoint on that is, well, you can't really know for sure when they're gonna say okay, I'm done with this. So my thought process: As somebody who's been talking about this for weeks and weeks since the end of September, you want to always time your risk management As it gets higher. That's just my take. Accela Finally waking up again today as well.

Driven largely by a new business relationship with what Excela says is one of the largest franchises in the world, you had some of that short squeeze action show on the chart again, but overall this one has been bludgeoned by the short sellers and today was an opportunity for retail traders to fight back because of the overall risk on trading environment and the tailwinds that empowered people to throw money at all of these stocks. We're going to continue to monitor these for setups. Bkkt insane Run today on news of its partnership with Mastercard. According to Fortune, this will allow Mastercard's network of banks, merchants, and fintechs to integrate cryptocurrency services into their products, allowing more consumers to use crypto for purchases.

I think in some ways this also helped prop up the cryptocurrency market, which quite frankly had been taking a very chubby chunky breath over the last couple of trading days over the last week. Crypto performed very solidly today, with almost every major currency up Huge Shiba taking off again on speculation that Robin Hood may list it, increasing the amount of capital flow into it. Hopefully Sheba takes a breath before it gets added on to Robin Hood, because if it goes up too fast, Robin Hood may have to restrict trading in order to protect its users. Mara, lovely Mara! Seen some beautiful inflows today.

Now as much fun as short-term trades are, and they're a lot of fun. There's something to be said about putting the work in on a play, buying it low and then just riding the damn waves of which there are many because Mara's a dirty little tease. You did the work you placed your own price Target. Now sit back and relax.

You know how many people panic sell Mara every single time it's down only to then go and panic buy it at new highs. I would argue the average retail trader does that with every stock, but with Mara, it's probably more extreme because of the massive massive volatility. My thought process is, hey, just buy the dips and ride it to the new highs and then you can lock in profits during the uptrend if you want. Or you can ride it to your price target that you valued it at.

I presented my numbers on Maura about a week ago. I'll link to the Mora video below, but other than that, I'd say just enjoy the ride. Okay, now for the main topic of this video skills. This is a stock that went parabolic towards the end of 2020 early 2021 hype cycle and then after vomiting shareholder value for about eight weeks, I started really liking it and made the case for it publicly on the channel at just under 19 bucks a share.

I looked at the company and I said hey, I don't think this is worth 46 bucks, but if you look at what they're going to accomplish over the next couple of years, I think it may be worth a lot more than it's trading at now. And thanks to some meme style squeezes, it ended up bouncing later to 25 before going back to hemorrhaging value for these last previous five months. Now, in hindsight, it probably would have been useful to wait a little bit longer to get giddy on the stock, but hindsight is 20 20 and the numbers that I saw at the time even made sense for that to be trading at 19. And I'll explain that in a second.

Quite simply, it's gone through the ringer. This year, short sellers who are trying to take advantage of a growth rotation have tried to get this down as close to a hundred percent as possible. They weren't satisfied with eighty percent down. They want this down to zero.

Why is there a single dollar of shareholder value left? If it hadn't been for the aggressive short selling? even with the growth rotation and some of the troubles that Skills has had leaving the pandemic, I would argue that this would probably be trading at like 18 or 20 bucks. And yes, it is up a little bit today as Kathy Wood has been buying last week and risk on trading has come back a little bit. But I want to make an argument for this company outside of the market condition. That way, no matter what happens, flood, fear, or favor, you get an idea of the actual value proposition here.

Okay, quick rundown on the company. So Skills is in the mobile gaming segment. What sets them apart is the real money aspect to it. Gamers pay small entry fees per game and those entry fees bring in revenue for skills and also fun prizes and incentives for players as well as for developers to create more games.

They get around the gambling regulation by marking all of these games skill based instead of lock based hence the name Skills. You're developing skills to earn more money and more prizes instead of gambling on random chance. In effect. you have a really, really unique business model and I think disruptive business model that incentivizes players to play more developers to develop more, all while at the same time generating revenue for skills.

It's a unique take on mobile gaming and at scale, this would be an excellent business model. This year they've made great progress with partnerships with Exit Games, a multi-phase partnership with Nfl, and an acquisition of Acari, which is a platform with more than 465 million monthly users. and a lot of these partnerships are going to be showing their effects in upcoming quarters. I absolutely love Skills business model.

I think it's going to be a massive disrupter and these partnerships are going to benefit it greatly. However, early stage companies that have massive growth potential also have massive risks associated with them and you always have to be aware of them and make predictions based on said risks and the chances that they pan out. And the risk with this one quite simply is the marketing cost. The cost to acquire customers.

Right now, advertising costs are through the roof. Gaming interest is going down because of the year-over-year decline from stay-at-home orders to everybody going out and about more people working right now, short sellers and some of the people that panic sold. Skills are making the argument that hey, Skills is never going to be able to get their cost of acquiring customers down. I would make the argument that it's higher right now because everybody has seen massive, massive increases in advertising costs and I'm optimistic that as more users start rolling in as we start seeing the actual effects of those partnerships that we just discussed and the acquisition of Iraqi which should directly start lowering marketing costs, that you'll see the cost per acquiring each customer go down dramatically.

Specifically, if you look at the Nfl Partnership, a lot of analysts are saying this Nfl partnership is worthless to Skills. Well, this is a multi-year partnership. It doesn't even become relevant really until the 2022 Nfl season, which is like fall 2022. So when analysts are saying oh, this is a shite stock because these partnerships aren't showing their full effects yet, that doesn't really make any sense.

Next week we'll get some clarification on the actual new numbers in regards to where cost to acquire customers are, if their overall numbers are continuing to increase in terms of overall monthly paying users, and where guidance sits for the upcoming quarter, I think that overall, you're going to start seeing this trend reverse. I think it could have already started reversing in this last quarter, but we'll see next week. And if I'm right, Skills is dramatically dramatically undervalued, and finally, assuming that Skills is able to bring down their cost of acquiring users, I would argue its revenue trajectory is going to look somewhat like this. In 2019, we had 120 million in revenue, which would put its fair value at four dollars and 30 cents a share had it been trading public at the time.

In 2020, we had 230 million in revenue, which would put it at a fair value of eight dollars and 24 cents in 2021 will have likely 376 million in revenue, give or take, corresponding to a fair value at 13.47 and a euphoric value at 22.45 2022. If revenue growth rates drop off some from previous year-over-year gains and you start getting into a little bit more of a compounding 50 growth rate, you leave a little bit of room for share dilution so they can raise a little bit extra capital. and you're looking at a fair value at 19.62 and a euphoric value at 32.70 Now, I think each dollar revenue is going to become a lot more valuable in late 2022, because the marketing costs are going to drop dramatically. At which case, I would expect higher multiples closer to my euphoric prices at 32.70 I also think the growth trend that we saw earlier this year that valued skills all the way up to 46 dollars will come back to some extent once growth stocks start being considered rotation safe, which also contributes to this likely hitting that euphoric range in 2022.

But in terms of actually earning it, I would argue that by 2023, with 846 million in shares, you're sitting at a price of 29.43 at fair value 49 and four cents at euphoric prices. And if you're valuing skills based on a development of the current partnerships that it has the overall trend trajectory that it's on and expected revenues, well, then I'd argue that the price should be somewhere between the euphoric case for 2022 and the fair value case for 2023, which would put my price target somewhere between 29.43 and 32.70 and we made some leaps here. I assume that revenue was going to continue growing at a higher rate, albeit slightly slower than it has been in previous years. I assume that proof of concept that Skills has shown over many, many, many, many quarters will continue to show.

Those are a lot of assumptions don't get me wrong. but I think that you look at the data that they've shown. I think that you look at the trend trajectory and you look at the overall technology and uniqueness of the business model, and you look at the competent leadership. Well, I would say it has a strong chance of pulling it off right now.

If you're a bear, you're arguing that the cost to acquire customers is just too damn high. I'm arguing that they have a lot of shovels to get themselves out of that situation. and I haven't even mentioned how far they can go with acquisitions. They can continue to acquire companies that can fix that problem for them.

Other companies have been able to get around that issue. They have a lot of capital to make it happen. They have a lot of experience making it happen, and it's worked in the past. and right now we're just in this weird environment where advertising costs are skyrocketing and where people are showing less interest in playing games.

But the long-term trajectory is going to be back on the uptrend in my view. Anyways, folks, that's it for today. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us below or join us on zip Trader Circle if you'd like to learn how to trade with our private chat, our daily morning briefings, as well as our step-by-step lessons where we will walk you through everything that you need to know in order to learn how to better trade and manage your account in the stock of market. Well, we'll go ahead and put a link to Zip Trader you below.

This is not the type of course where you can buy it and get away without doing any work. This is something where you're expected to put a ton of work in and effort to get any sort of result. When I buy something, you better bet that I get every single dollar worth out of it. and I expect the same from you anyways.

have a good one and I'll see you in the next video.