Okay folks, so it was a Mr. Murky Murky day today and I want to give an update on the market as well as plays. I want to give an update on Ooga Booga, Amc, and the latest with that And then lastly for the main entree I want to talk about what the Fed just said or more accurately put, I want to talk about what was just released from the Fed minutes that we saw today and what that means for where the market's going to be trading moving forward because if you didn't notice, there's been a lot of red and I think that his face says it all and before we get into it, the only thing that I ask of you in return is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe either. Okay, the market.

We had the Dow down, the S P, down the Nasdaq down. the sky fell a little bit and today and pretty much this entire week hasn't been very good. For retail heavy stocks as well as Conviction Place. you've seen a ton of outflows out of lots of different stocks and you haven't seen a lot of that money come back into the market, which is very interesting.

You look at the heat map of the S P today and pretty much everything was down. I wasn't messing around when I said Mr. Murky Murky, but in terms of catalyst opportunities, we did see some winds today, of which Pmcb appeared on our radar this morning. We briefed on it in the 540s 30 minutes prior to market open.

As always, it ran to 984 at highs earlier on in the day, before dipping then later picking up again all the way up to 11 27. which means it more than doubled from the braving price. But why did I like it? Well, it's a recent ipo. It showed proof of concept by running in the pre-market and it was selling off from that point, implying that hey, volume is about to come into open if this can keep its upward direction and that volume is going to be upward sentiment volume and that is what happened.

But context is everything here. Fact of the matter is that Pmcb has barely been on the market yet. It's already been cut down 80 percent. But at the same time, when we identified it this morning, its pre-market trading volume was trading at almost highs.

If you're going to submit massive, massive amounts of orders, it didn't really make sense to do it. For the downside, because you had already realized most of the risk versus reward there. you took it down from ten to two. There's no reason to put all the attacks on to get maybe another 50 cents or one dollar of downside, whereas on the other side, if you're going to flip the coin and put buying pressure you have a lot more upside back to 10 then you do downside to one dollar or 150.

But of course, trading is a probability game, and while we got lucky on this play and it was a killer, you have to make sure that you're controlling your risk for when you're wrong, and you're able to avoid positions that don't make sense to enter, especially given the fact that you bought anything in the market today and it probably went down because everything was pointed downward. Okay, moving on. Okabuka Amc. So Amc has done a pretty excellent job of weathering the storm this week, despite many outflows in the rest of the market.

A big trending story right now is this idea that Ceo Adam ape Aaron has thought up a crafty way to dump Amc shares and you're seeing a lot of the media use this as sort of an I Told you So moment. what's the implication that you the apes are getting taken advantage of? But of course it's a little bit more mixed than that. So Adam Aaron said on his earnings conference call that quote two months ago, more than 85 percent of my net worth was in Amc stock, and proper estate planning for a 67 year old suggests I should diversify my assets a bit. but I don't want any of you ever to think that I have anything but full confidence in Amc's future, so I will do so under the Us Pisces auspices.

I don't know how to pronounce that word. I've heard it before, but I didn't do my hooked on Phonics when I was a kid so I don't know how to pronounce this. Auspice Auspice Auspices Hospice Auspice. Basically, what he's doing is that under the guise of diversifying his net worth and his assets, he wants to sell out of some of his Amc stock and diversify it into other asset classes.

and he wants to use a third party to do so. Also wants to limit how much he sells, and he certainly doesn't want to create the perception that he doesn't believe in Amc anymore. Let's take a step back for a second. How much money does he have in Amc? Well, at the last filing, Sec documents say he held 1.2 million shares.

Amc stock price right now is 36.55 Multiply them together and you get about 46 million dollars invested in Amc right now. If you do the math, he probably had about 100 million or more in June at June highs, but is that a lot of money for Adam Aaron? Well, his base yearly salary was about 1.2 million in 2019 and 2020. it was cut a bit due to Covid, but that's not including the 2020 special bonus that he got, which allowed him to receive another 5 million. But funny enough, if you actually add up the total compensation, he made twice as much in 2020 as he did in 2019.

almost 21 million dollars in 2020, and only 9.67 million in 2019.. his total compensation was through the roof. In a terrible year for the company, he's made a ton of money off the pandemic. massive massive compensation bonuses because of it, and his stock is trading at many multiples of what it was in 2019..

these are the kind of compensation boost that you'd see after running a massively successful and profitable company over a decade. And to be real, I'm actually pretty damn sympathetic for founders of companies who never took a salary, did a great job in leadership, and then want to cash out on their shares. I'm totally sympathetic and all for that, but Adam Aaron is neither of those things. He's not a founder, and he has taken massive compensation during a bad bad year for Amc.

To be fair though, he did weather a massive storm in 2020. he was able to cast aside all the doubters, and he was able to at least help facilitate the whole Amc 8 movement situation. Even though he is already talking about selling some shares, he is putting that off to next year. he's going to allow a third party to do it, and he's going to do it Very small and controlled month over month.

If he really didn't care, he could have just dumped tons of it on the market in June. That would have saved him like 50 million dollars. But by doing this, he's giving respect to the retail traders who own the stock, and he has taken on the risk of this going down a lot further. By the end of the year when he starts cashing out.

As we know, shorts can just keep deferring and deferring for quite a while. So by him taking on this risk, he's taken on the risk of this getting even lower. From a financial perspective, it seems like he's taking a middle ground between seizing on the opportunity to take some profits on his shares that have massive, massive gains and also try not to backstab people who gave him the gains. But when you get into the situation where you're like, hey, this company struggled massively during 2020.

you got compensated greatly for that, and you made tons of money on share appreciation, it's like it's a little bit tougher for me to rationalize that. That being said, hey, if he did everything legally, totally fine. This is a free country. It doesn't matter how it looks, go cash out, do what you want.

But those are my thoughts. Okay, lastly, the Fed. So one of the things that we abruptly learned time and time again last year is that it doesn't matter what's going on in the broader economy. If half the country is shut down, it's the Fed.

That, time and time again, controls the market. It's the Fed's policies that can make a bull market during bad economic times, and the Fed's policies that can break a bull market during good economic times. And today, the minutes for the Fed's last meeting came out. and what did they say? Well, number one, they voted to keep short-term interest rates anchored near zero.

No shocker there. We know that sustained interest rate hikes shouldn't be happening until late 2022, 2023. Number two, they expressed economic growth optimism despite this new variant situation, but stress some of the other challenges with it. For example, we're in this really weird situation where in some cases the variant is very, very deflationary.

people stop spending as much, they start hoarding. They get a little bit worried about their financial situation, so there's not as much economic activity and in that sense, money doesn't circulate as much and you don't get as much inflation. But on the other hand, and this is kind of worrisome. From the Fed's perspective, the variant causes a lot of complications in terms of supply chain issues: factors that are getting shut down in other countries, international travel that is complicated, different labor shortages, and manufacturing shortages that already existed massively.

and those cause inflationary pressures because because, if you can't manufacture as much in a supply chain, well, you don't have those things, those goods and services go up dramatically in prices. So you have in some cases, massive deflationary pressures, and in other cases, massive inflationary pressures. So the Fed's saying, hey, this may cause inflation to be a little bit more persistent than we thought. We still think it's transitory, but it seems like it's going to be a little bit more persistent than we thought.

because of these risks. Stuff To see exactly where the balance is going to be: Is supply chain issues going to be offset by massive deflationary pressures In terms of demand going down, Consumers not wanting to spend much because they're worried? It seems like it's probably going to be a little bit more of the second part. But basically they are saying, hey, if inflation is persistent, we're going to have to taper. We're not going to mess with interest rates yet, but we're going to have to taper.

But I think the bigger picture is they acknowledge that uncertainty is quite high right now. We really don't know how this is going to play out. We don't know exactly how long this outbreak is going to last, or how our trading partners are going to react to it, and how that affects our intercommerce relations, But basically what it seems to me that they're trying to say is hey, we're willing to taper We're more than ever willing to taper now and acknowledging that that might be something that we have to do in the upcoming months. But we're still applying a wait-and-see approach and we have another four weeks to wait until we get the next update in terms of what the Fed's doing, so we'll see what happens.

They're going to watch the case count, they're going to watch the economic data, job filings, the impact of the variant, and so on and so forth. I mean, in terms of the market, I mean, the market has gone from looking very, very very bullish and acknowledging that inflation might be a problem to now looking a little bit more bearish and acknowledging inflation might still be a problem. So it makes sense that a lot of money is like, okay, I kind of want to be on the sidelines right now. I kind of want to say wait a few weeks to see how this situation develops.

or maybe even a month or two. the market's thinking, hey, wait, we're in the summer, Cases are spreading, economic data is starting to look a little bit more worse because of it. What happens in the Fall? I want to know exactly what happens in the Fall, Our case is going to go through the roof, and you're going to start seeing a lot of restrictions like we're seeing now in China and New Zealand, sporadic places in Europe. Or is it over panicking? We don't really know right now.

I understand it's kind of a contentious thing to talk about because you're like, I don't think this is a problem or you think this is a really big problem. I know it's a politicized issue, but regardless of what you think, if the politicians in charge of different regions decide that it's a problem, they can lock you down. And that causes massive, massive problems for the economy, both on a national level and of course an international level. So the market's like, hey, I acknowledge that.

I acknowledge there's a lot of problems right now. Maybe I'm going to be a little bit more cautious and we've seen that become a trend over the last couple of weeks. especially. Anyways, folks that caps off the video.

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And that caps off today's video. I'll see you in the next one.