Okay, so today we have some violent topics to cover. We need to talk about number one, this Amc situation. We had some people reading between the lines yesterday in my video trying to say hey, maybe Charlie's not into this whole Amc 8 movement anymore and I want to talk about whether my tone has shifted on Amc and my outlook for it. Number Two, I want to bring to light a high conviction play that is being heavily attacked by short sellers despite having better and better numbers.

And this has been a play that's been very, very successful for us in the past and I believe is going to be very, very successful again. The only thing that I ask in return is that you go and you drink some tea and then you hit that ravishing like button And also don't forget to subscribe either. Okay, so before we get to the main entree here, let's go ahead and start with an update on the market Market was very green today to cap off the week you had the dow up, the S P, up the Nasdaq trailing a bit. The thing is with the Nasdaq, it's trailing because it's very heavily weighted in big tech and Big Tech is dealing with some big fun right now in terms of Biden's anti-trust crackdowns.

But at the same time, if you're looking at Arc which is more growth tech, smaller to medium tech oriented, well, they've been performing very well because they don't have that same big tech exposure. Although Arc does have some china foot exposure which is probably pushing it down a little bit. Okay, Moving on in terms of Amc. Ooga booga folks.

Retail showed up after yesterday's dip and today was basically flat down a few percentage points. I highlighted some of the usual risk versus reward in our usual conversation that we talked about yesterday. I saw some people were reading between the lines trying to speculate on whether my tone has changed on Amc and it hasn't changed the math and the whole situation hasn't changed at all. Shorts are guaranteed future buyers.

That's how this works when you short sell something you have to cover eventually. In fact, like we mentioned yesterday, the idea that retail showed up in mass to provide that bounce off support was a huge win for the movement, but at the same time hey, you can see the potential in something without ignoring the risks. I know that sometimes we treat risk with Amc, sort of like fight Club. We don't talk about fight club.

Mc is not a fair playing field. It never has been. and the idea that Amc is suddenly a fair playing field because we all want it to go up in all squeeze is completely ridiculous. The reason that I'm so adamant about reminding you that this isn't a fair playing field is because I think it makes the movement stronger.

It doesn't make it weaker because you're talking about risks. Anybody that thinks something is weaker because you're more prepared to deal with risks as a complete like I said earlier this week, even the public price of Amc is debatable. It's like believing in Santa Claus. Like, yeah, you can believe in Santa Claus, but it's probably just a mall Santa.

The Santa at your local Westfield mall is not the same thing as the real Santa that's supposed to be in the North Pole. Look respectfully. you could certainly see the potential in something without ignoring the risks. Extreme opportunities have extreme volatility and the first people that are gonna paper hand every single time it sells off are the people that weren't prepared ahead of time for that risk without the momentum that we had in June.

Right now, we are simply in the end game stage of waiting for shorts to cover and it's going to require a lot of fortitude in order to deal with all the psychological warfare that's going on. You're somebody who's part of this eight movement and you're going on these forms and you're seeing people. Anytime you say something bad, they're trying to shut you down. Hey, tell them that they're an enemy to the movement.

They're not a supporter of the movement. If they're supportive of the retail trader, they wouldn't be trying to gaslight them into ignoring the risks. I get it folks, there's some somewhat positive intentions that are grounded in this idea because there's some misleading foot that gets spread everywhere. and then people believe it.

and then they sell based on misleading information. That was fun, But there's also legitimate risks and you have to be able to identify that when you see it. People who are trying to gaslight you into ignoring risks are literally trying to get Amc stock down. The best way to get Amc stock down is to convince people that Amc can never go down.

Why is that? Because the minute it goes down, people are like up. I got scammed. I'm going to go ahead and paper hand. I guess the whole thing was a big conspiracy theory, wasn't it? The facts of the situation are very very, very simple.

There's a lot of short sellers that over shorted this, that screwed themselves and they're backed into a corner and there's a ticking time clock at which they have to cover, but the emotions that lead up to that are going to have to be based in reasonable and informed decision making. I don't want to go too much into this, but if you're going to go ahead and make an analogy here. If apes were an army sent into battle and the people that were reviewing the battle told them, hey, you know what, You guys have this in the bag you're going to go in and you're going to win this battle immediately and take all the spoils. Apes going to battle.

Really overconfident. They go in and because they go in overconfident the minute that something bad starts happening and there's a little bit of pushback, they start running for the hills. But if you tell them ahead of time to prepare that this is an army and this is an active battleground that you're going to have to fight and you're going to have to endure on well, they're going to be prepared for battle. The people who paper hand first, the people who sell anything first are the least informed people, the people who were misled, the people who were lied to you, and the people who were just really didn't do any due diligence.

It wasn't the people who were informed that things could go wrong. Everything can go wrong in the stock market. everything can go right tomorrow, something can drop, and every single one of the stocks that I've ever heard of goes down 90 percent. From the beginning, we've been talking about Amc since like eight dollars a share and I've evolved myself with the movement and I've been very, very impressed by how strong this social movement is.

I've been somebody that's been yelling and yelling about hedge funds and unfair Wall Street manipulation tactics for pretty much the since the beginning of this channel. One of my earliest videos was talking about how stop losses are actually used to manipulate retail traders into selling really early because stop losses can be publicly seen by market makers, and because retail traders like to use crowd psychology to set their stop losses where they all put their Stop losses at a certain point the same exact point. Well, it becomes very lucrative to push something down if you're trying to get your stock down to that level so that you know that all that selling pressure is going to dump on the market at once. Here's the thing.

and if you didn't already catch this from all my videos, I actually think that the situation has the cards really, really stacked in the retail trader's favor, specifically because of the symptoms of massive naked short selling combined with the shorts that we know about combined with how strong this movement is. But you have to make a reasonable decision yourself and you have to actually really understand the risks and the extreme volatility that's at hand. Here, everybody has a different approach to risk tolerance. Some people are making a bet in this just to stick it to the hedge funds and they don't care if they lose all their money, they want to stick it.

Then you have some people who are already locking in their profits and you have some people that are making a calculated bet that this is going to have one of those mother of all squeezes and you have other people that don't want to engage in at all. And everybody has their own perspective and that's fine. Respect everybody. Personally, I think this is an active battleground that's going to require a lot of patience, But hey, at the end of the day, it's going to be time for hedge funds to pay up.

That's my perspective on this, Anybody, that's telling you that you can't have that perspective while also not ignoring the risks of this and not over exposing yourself to this. Not going the way that we wanted to or having realistic expectations is really just trying to gaslight you. So anyways, those are my thoughts. My thoughts haven't changed.

I'm just emphasizing the fact that you do have to be aware of what you're doing. Okay, so the stock of the hour. So here's the deal. Upstart is the play that we've held a consistent price target at 170 and reiterated many times throughout its dip that took it to 79 and then by June to 191.

we presented on it many times in the past and actually on May 21st, we made a video talking about how I'm designating it as a cell or at least they consider it a cell since it had gone from 80 to over 150 in the span of really just a few weeks. I felt that based on that extreme performance in such an extremely short time period that it made sense to start locking in some profits, then rebuy later at a lower price, and then ride the next wave. It actually ended up running even more, going as high as 191 until it did eventually get its sell-off cycle which took it down to the 110 and 120s which is where we are now. Now, if you look at the trends of short interest, short sellers started piling on huge as it was going down.

Of course, short sellers are not high convicted individuals, they just like to ride trends. If they were high conviction individuals, they thought, oh, this is undervalued at 140, they would have been shorting it at 190.. Okay, let's be real, they're just trying to get some fast money and accelerate bear trends when they're there. We're now in the situation where Upstart is sitting on a lot of short sellers, hoping this is going to go down much further.

And meanwhile, Upstart has found a really, really irksome floor of support. And the reason is pretty clear in my book. Upstart is an extremely competitive company. Upstart offers a lending platform that helps banks make better lending decisions.

There's two ways that banks can improve their lending business: number one by getting more competitive loans at cheaper prices competing with other lending institutions, or number two reaching untapped markets. Upstart allows them to do both, but especially the latter. The way the credit system in the United States works is you have that traditional Fico score which takes into consideration your previous credit history such as your payment history, your amounts used, your credit utilized, blah blah blah blah amount of time that the accounts were open. But those few data sets, while easy and simple and cheap to calculate, omit a lot of useful information when it comes to risk involved with your credit history, and the data suggests that's true.

In fact, four out of five Americans have never defaulted on a credit product, yet less than half have access to prime credit. That's a disaster and a huge, untapped market Club Star takes into consideration a lot more relevant variables actually over a thousand. Some of the obvious variables are your employment history, your education level, whether you completed zip trade or you or not cost of living in your area, and of course your credit relationship, and what happens when you have a bigger, more complete risk assessment of your customer. Well, that allows you to not just lend to untapped markets, but also lower premiums for less risky borrowers that may have had to pay higher premiums because of the old, traditional and outdated credit rating tactics.

Sounds like Charlie I too, can make bold assumption about things and strategies and ai and fancy variables. But where's the proof of concept? Well, Upstart reports 75 percent fewer defaults at the same approval rate as large U.s banks, and it reports 173 more approvals at the same loss rate. They are seeing fewer defaults and more approvals. Banks win because they get less risky loans and more of them, and customers win because they get cheaper loans and they get approved more often.

In terms of recent quarterly report, you've seen revenue balloon, and since revenue is mostly attributed to more loans that suggests more and more utilization, revenue is projected to continue to accelerate as well. They also have healthy, free cash flow and very good leadership. Talked earlier this year about their opportunity in the auto loan market thanks to the acquisition of Prodigy and they saw a 45 increased dealership footprint. The other thing is that this platform offers not just better lending solutions to banks, but it's also a very competitive platform.

The upstart platform allows individual banks to actually customize their risk assessment to actually fit their lending strategy and allow instant approval in 71 of cases. For example, imagine being a car dealership and you're trying to sell a car to somebody to somebody who may not have that good of credit and they need to take out a loan. Well, this platform is easy to use and 71 percent of the time can result in instant approval. and the odds of them getting a loan and completing that car sale transaction that day are much higher.

If you have a platform that gives them a loan at a higher rate, approves them a lot faster, and also offers probably some of the most competitive premiums. And of course, if you're a car dealership, you know you got to get that car out of there today because the longer you wait to sell the car, the more the customer may decide. Hey, you know what? Maybe I don't eat the car so much once the customer leaves. They're not coming back most the time now.

Nothing comes without its problems though. If you have a company that's a genuine disrupter, what's to stop other companies from going and saying hey, you know what? We're going to disrupt this too. We're gonna copy it. And of course there are some other companies that are using somewhat similar metrics.

But I think that Upstart has the edge and a lot of traditional lending institutions. They're very stubborn and they're not gonna adapt to this trend until it's so obvious and slaps them in the face. So right now in the meantime, Upstart has an advantage because they can build and milk this industry and actually build a name for themselves before the rest of the market catches up. I think that if you combine that with the fact that we are well down from all-time highs, we continue to see the overall bull market for tech and we are seeing huge short interest.

Makes me believe that this is a very, very interesting combination where you have a high conviction play one that showing proof of concept, one that has a lot more room to grow and one that has a lot of short sellers that are sweating on and you combine all this together and it's like wow. This is a pretty nice setup anyways. folks. some things to think about over the weekend.

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Have a great day and I'll see you in the next video.