In this video, we're going to be starting by giving some updates on our latest plays, as well as some guidance. and then more importantly, I want to talk about how inflation is getting bad, what the data is showing us, and how much this is likely to affect our positions, and whether future sell-offs are coming. But first, the only thing that I ask in return is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe. Okay, so the growth sector was down today, continuing its slow teasing pattern.

and look folks, we'll let it take a breath. but if you look at the Arc flagship fund as a benchmark for growth in general, the whole sector has been trading in the same range for about two months, and maybe you can extrapolate a slow and steady uptrend. But this is certainly a market where short-term traders are winning most of the prizes and they're definitely having to fight for those prizes. But the prizes are still out there in terms of short-term trades.

Today rhe was a gold mine. We briefed on it 30 minutes prior to market, open on social sentiment boosts, ended up opening right at nine and then running to 1518 later in the day. Keep in mind though, that the majority of catalysts burn out very quickly, so if you do catch a fake out, you got to make sure that you're willing to cut your losses quickly. Ocg also had some opportunities today.

This has been a frequent briefing play over the last couple of weeks, and it's definitely been one of the rock stars in our community. Of course, we briefed on it again today and it ran up as a report, showed potential effectiveness of its vaccine against some of the lesser known variants. And look folks, I know that this uptrend looks very powerful, but you want to make sure that you still have that clear exit plan because this isn't a market where you can just hold it hope. In fact, back in February we had a similar price run and on the last day of the uptrend on February 8th, I said if you bought Ocgn from the briefing on capital raised news, I would lock in profit.

And I know that a lot of people didn't want to lock in profits because they thought that was fear-mongering and like sort of restricting potential. But at the end of the day it's not about restricting potential, it's about taking reasonable risk and not taking unreasonable risk. And I think that's why it's so important to make sure that you have reasonable expectations for these. but you also have exit plans, isn't S was very, very bittersweet.

Today this was a briefing play from Friday and we talked about that on Friday's video as well. and honestly, I totally missed this falling over into Monday. we were projecting hype on Friday due to news around reorganization and share buybacks. Today it finally realized its reality going from five to the thirteens, which is just insane.

Totally bittersweet to call out the correct catalyst on Friday, but then miss it Monday, but hopefully some of you guys took advantage of it. Probably's not perfect, but he definitely is hydrated. Now it's time to get to work. So inflation during the Pandemic household saved cash at record levels, and American savings rates have continued to stay high.

But as more Americans go out and spend money, what's starting to happen? Well, you're starting to see prices go up right now. In the United States, you're paying more for many basic items than you were just a year ago. Data shows: consumer prices on groceries are up 2.6 household care up 5.2 percent, baby care 7, and general merchandise and goods 7.1 Think about that for a second. That means that if you have 100 and you go, and you buy general goods or general merchandise, well, today, you're getting seven percent less value than you did last year.

In terms of gas prices, gas prices have come from 188 a gallon to over 296 on average across the Us. Obviously a year ago there's a lot less demand because of lockdowns, and that's why you saw prices plummet back then, and when you compare it on a year-over-year basis, it seems like a massive jump. But even if you compare it on a five-year basis so far before Kovid, while we are still within spitting distance of highs, while also having less demand than usual. So when the man fully comes back, you're gonna see gas prices take off even more.

And this is an accelerating trend. In fact, gasoline rose nine percent in March alone, and in California, it's already back to an average above four dollars. And there's a gas station where I live in La that's over five dollars. Talk about highway robbery.

Let's go pick up some Ev folks, I don't want to deal with this shite anymore. And speaking of cars, cars have record demand right now, but also limited supply because of supply chain issues, and because of a shortage of new cars. Used car prices are soaring if you're a home builder, costs of materials are skyrocketing, and in terms of asset classes, whether you have a home, a stock, or a cryptocurrency, odds are strong that it costs more than it did last year, which was great if you were already in the position, but not so great if you're trying to get into it now. And why is this all happening? Well, the main problem right now is the massive supply chain issues.

You know about the chip shortage impacting companies across the globe. There's also delays in fulfillment due to a lot of countries that we trade with having to deal with massive outbreaks of covet, and it's probably going to come on a rotating scale because let's be honest, projections are that a lot of countries, especially in the Third world, are going to be struggling with this for years. And of course, the big thing that we're going to start seeing in mass over the next couple of months, especially in the summer, is people feeling more confident about their economic position. So they're going to go out and they're going to start spending their savings.

And we have again, elevated savings rates in this country right now. So if that goes back down to where it was pre-pandemic you're gonna start seeing a lot of money flowing around. And honestly, another thing that a lot of people aren't talking about is the way that inflation is reported. For example, a year ago today, we were in a very, very, very low inflation environment.

So the thing is that if you compare April 2021 to April 2020, well, obviously it's going to look a lot more inflationary because April 2020 was in a very deflationary environment. I mean, we weren't in the negative numbers, but it was very, very low inflation. And so that means that when everything starts picking up, numbers look a lot more bad because you're comparing it to a period that had really, really low inflation. But if you compare it to, say, 2019 or 2018 or 2017, that creates a better picture of what the inflation actually is.

But of course, you've probably seen a lot of articles talking about the odds of hyperinflation, and a lot of articles saying that we're almost guaranteed to be in a hyperinflation environment. And the logic also is that hey, look they printed a ton of money. so obviously we're going to see things get out of control. But the truth is that we've actually been here a decent amount of times.

So let's go back and look at the context first. I just want to start with an article from 2011. after we printed tons of money to get us out of the last crisis. In the report, they warned that by 2015, most Americans would have the majority of their purchasing power wiped out.

So that means if you're living in 2013, these folks thought that by 2015, most of your purchasing power would be wiped out. That didn't happen. If you search articles or just read these headlines from 2010 to 2020, you'll see so many articles similar to this projecting massive inflation. Why would they do that? Well, Because they get clicks and it's always a possibility.

But in my opinion it's kind of like saying hey, you just went and smoked a ton of cigarettes over the last couple of weeks. so now you're guaranteed to have lung cancer like? It's definitely true that that's a risk factor, and the more you do it, the more risky it becomes. but doesn't mean that it's a guarantee. Meanwhile, while this trend has gone on, you've seen the last several decades since 1989, we've seen inflation overall trend down despite some massive peaks with oil spikes and supply chain issues, as well as some dips with crises or crises We managed to continue on a long-term downtrend, and the Fed is projecting that the same thing will happen.

And why is that? Well, we could go into how. unlike other countries that have had hyperinflation problems, we use a combination of issuing highly credible debt combined with an increase in the money supply that is largely given to banks who then just step up their reserves during the crisis and don't even unload it to the general population that provides the needed liquidity to the financial system that's needed during a crisis, but also doesn't have that huge, massive multiplier effect that you have during hyperinflation. But the truth is that there's thousands of different theories and people just don't agree on why inflation has been so stubborn over the last 30 years. but still, based on the data that we've had, the Fed expects us to continue.

So what does history say about stocks and inflation? Well, of course, inflation erodes the value of companies future earnings. but a small and steady inflation rate can be good for stocks, so some inflation isn't bad. But the big fear, of course, is hyperinflation if it's so out of control that the Fed has to drastically increase interest rates. Well, obviously that's a huge problem, because then it takes a lot more money in order to take on risk.

and there's a lot less money circulating in the economy. And logic goes that during rapid inflation environments. Well, you're going to see a lot of the high multiple stocks go down dramatically. So that's a large reason why we're starting to see the stagnation in high growth stocks Now that they've been discounted, we have a lot of people waiting on both sides trying to see if we are going to get out of control inflation or not.

In terms of value stocks. Those are the place that you would want to be in if you have hyperinflation. But the problem is that a lot of them have already factored in a lot of inflation. So if we get to the point where we don't see these disastrous levels of inflation, I would expect value stocks to cool off quite a bit.

If people are buying something expecting four, five, six percent of inflation and you end up getting two or three percent, well, people are going to panic. Most value stocks are trading way over pre-coveted highs, and that's a huge issue. But if you're of the opinion that we're gonna have a little bit more moderate of a situation, you're gonna see inflation pick up. It's gonna stay higher than it was during the crisis for years, hitting that bench market two percent or even slightly higher.

But you don't believe we're gonna have hyperinflation in the U.s Well, I would argue that growth stocks are still one of your best bet. I think that as we go through the summer, you're gonna get those months where it just keeps going up and up and then you're gonna see the growth rate between each month. In terms of inflation data, it's going to get smaller and smaller. And once you start seeing that, you're going to have people saying okay, wait, we're not as scared about inflation anymore and then you're going to start seeing a lot of different trading activity around that people are like, okay, wait, a second.

Value stocks have gotten a little bit too pricey. Let's cool those off a little bit. Let's broaden out into some of the other sectors like Growth Stocks. Some of the bigger tech plays Okay, I also have a related question to close out the day: Carly over half of your recommended High Conviction plays are growth stocks.

Yet growth stocks are not good plays right now due to this low market, Why keep talking about them? The reason I still recommend them is because I think that they're the best deal right now. Think about it this way: What stock has more of a potential to double by the end of 2021 going into 2022? Walmart? A value stock or nano dimension of 3d printing stock, Neo and Ev Stalker, Jumia and E-commerce stock in a rapidly growing market. Putting aside the obvious difference in market cap and what it would mean for Walmart to double while still smaller Cap tech stocks that have proof of concept as well as the means and the experience and the team to actually make it happen. Well, they're a good deal because they're on an early stage in that growth process.

Definitely don't discount them just because we're in a slow market for growth stocks and I've been pretty consistent with the message. almost like a parent. I just keep repeating the same thing. But you want to make sure that you know Once you do the work and you've decided that this is a stock that's undervalued, it does not matter.

Keep that conviction. If a new piece comes out and it's like, oh, earnings come out and they just let they let you down on everything. Turns out the Ceo just rolled their truck downhill and acted like it had an engine. Well, anything like that.

Obviously you would change your conviction because you have new data that contradicts your conviction. but when it comes to a stock trading lower but nothing inside the company, I would make sure that your emotions aren't getting in the picture With that. Don't ignore trends in emerging sectors like Ev, just because the overall market isn't rewarding that right now. And also, you don't have to just sit on your hands, right? You can go out and you can do some short-term trades.

You can take some medium-term trades. I would probably focus on a little bit more on the short-term trades right now and then when everything comes back, you'll be ready. So anyways, that's all I got for you. And of course Quick Plug.

This video is sponsored by Ziptraderu. Let's be real. A lot of folks struggle with growing their account because they don't have a clear process. They just kind of hop from one strategy or one headline to the other, but similar to an exercise program.

Oftentimes if you don't have a clear structure, you're going to be very, very demotivated. You're going to quit quickly. You're definitely not going to have the confidence to stick it out. You're going to feel lost.

So the goal of Zip Trader You is of course to provide you with a step-by-step structure and also allow you to work with our private chat and be briefed every morning on what is happening and where the stock battlefields lie. Anyways, folks, if you are interested, I'll go ahead and put the link below and you can watch the intro video where this charming gentleman will explain everything you need to know if you want to take the leap and join us. I also just added a coupon code battlefield 75 if you want to get 75 off before checkout. Anyways, folks that caps off the video have a great day and I'll see you in the next one.

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