Honestly, we've all had a pretty damn bad day today. I'm drinking tea, but I wish this was bourbon. but what are you gonna do? But of course, as the market does its thing and panics, it's time for us to think logically and not emotionally. And of course, we do have to say some temporary condolences for some of the big losers today.

Pretty much everything got beat down like a rabid dog Mara Riot, Our Ev plays, our E-commerce plays, pretty much all of our favorite Arc plays. I mean, literally pretty much bought anything and you lost money today. And honestly, while we've all been here before to some extent, it doesn't make it hurt any less. Just because we know it'll bounce back doesn't make it hurt any less.

But the market doesn't care about your feelings. It responds to emotionless and logical action. and at the end of the day, we are being tested. This is all part of the process.

The sell-off serves as a reminder that the market comes and goes in cycles. And so it's our job to exploit the cycles. And this is another reason that I always say: if you're not willing to hold through downtrends, make sure that you're locking in your profits on uptrends. But at the end of the day, of course, it doesn't matter how long a sell-off lasts, it's still an important lesson in risk management market cycles, and it also helps reveal some of your weaknesses because a lot of you were holding plays that were more speculative in nature.

And holding through a sell-off means knowing when to cut your losses. And knowing which plays are actually of value. Some positions are, of course, more short-term. some are more long-term It depends on the position.

Don't forget, just a year ago, at the same time we were talking about how everything was selling off literally day after day. We'd have days where you get four to five percent sell-offs in the broader market and some of the individual plays were down 10, 15, 20 and everybody was panicking. Of course, a lot of people hopped off the bandwagon and then many of them now have sworn off the stock market forever because they got burnt. Nobody in the stock market is perfect.

I'm not perfect. No one's perfect. but the people that get hurt the most in a stock market correction, or ones that didn't really know what they were doing with their positions or why they were in the position. When it comes to place we talk about, we always say if you don't believe in the stock, you have to be willing to sell out.

You have to know going in if you're going to be holding through fluctuation, or if you're going to be selling out at the first sign of panic, there's no wrong answer to that. We have risk management in place for both of those, but you have to have a clear plan going in and that's something that we try to stress over and over again in our videos. If the sell-off is just a short-term sell-off and it bounces back during the next week, this is still a good lesson. It's a good lesson on why you need to be intentional with place.

I'm not perfect. There's some plays that we held through the downtrend that I'd rather not have held, but it's all about being intentional with the place that you have so that you can be better and better and better over the long term. Anyways, folks, So what I told Ziptrader You members this morning was it's now time to set ourselves up well for the next market bounce. And it's time, folks.

it's now time to learn, be patient, and exploit. And today I want to talk about whether Cciv is a good buy at the current trading price. it's in the 35 to 40 range and the only thing that I ask in return is that you hit that ravishing like button And also don't forget to subscribe. Okay, so as you know, Cciv announced yesterday that they'd be merging with Lucid.

This capped off the first phase of our Cciv trade, which was the rumor run from 15 all the way up to 64. I was gunning for 70, but it is what it is. I mean at the end of the day this was a great opportunity and I know most of you locked in a lot of your profits before the crunch and even if you didn't you still had a massive gain Because again we called this out under 15 bucks and even if you got in under 30, this is still a pretty solid play. But now we are at the next stage and this is where it gets exciting and I think this overall market condition makes this even more exciting.

We have to explain why this drop actually happened because in yesterday's video I talked about people taking profits, but I didn't go too much into the details of the actual merger and sort of the market capitalization differences from what was expected and what we actually got and how that related to the beat down because that's very important. So in the last couple of months we had the media telling us that we were going to be expecting a 12 to 15 billion dollar valuation for lucid, but it ended up being 24 billion, which was a huge blow to us. But why would a higher valuation be bad? Charlie, higher valuation means good. No, it doesn't not in this context.

So as retail shareholders of Cciv, you want a cheaper valuation because this is an S-pack I know it's a little bit hard to comprehend, but let's say right now you go and you buy Cciv for forty dollars. What you're doing is you're paying 40 for a total of 63 billion in market cap. But if they had done what we were originally led to believe they would do well, you'd be paying 40 for a combined total of 48 billion dollars in market cap. Let's say that your projection is that Lucid is going to be a hundred billion dollar company in the next two years should be valued at 100 billion in two years.

Well, then in the original situation, you would have made a lot more money if Lucid goes to 100 million dollars in market cap and scenario A which is what we were led to believe would happen, then your 40 share price would grow to about 83. But in scenario B which is what is actually happening. If Lucid goes to a valuation of 100 billion, well, your 40 share price would grow to about 62. So basically we have less steak in the upside and more steak in the downside.

But anyways, that's basically what happened in a nutshell. Now we have to ask, is Cciv a good deal at 40 Because at 40 again, that corresponds to about 63 billion in market capitalization. And as I shot this video, Cciv went down a little bit more. went to 35.

If it's at 35, that's a 56 billion valuation, give or take. And to put that into perspective, Tesla first hit 63 billion in valuation in mid-2017 and at that time, there's a lot more investor reluctance to Evs. Tesla was struggling with bad Pr headlines saying that bankruptcy could be imminent and they were having a hard time with their production. I mean, they still are having a hard time with their production, but it was a much different situation back then.

Lucid, on the other hand, has the benefit of joining an environment that is much more conducive to Evs. has Tesla as a role model and has employed many prior members of Tesla to learn from Tesla's mistakes in terms of production capacities. Lucid is definitely behind where Tesla was in 2017, no doubt. By netting all this together, it doesn't seem like 63 billion in valuation is terribly crazy for Lucid, especially if it's able to hit even half of its goalposts in the next couple of years.

Another company that we can compare the valuations to is Nia. Neo is trading at a valuation of 77 billion. Granted, they have been selling an awful lot in the last couple of weeks, but still 77 billion. Obviously, being in China keeps them down in terms of valuation quite a lot.

But still, Neo is a very, very far along company. They've been delivering vehicles, they have batteries as a service stations all over China. They have a very interesting business model and a very good name and reputation. But yes, China is a different market and there's a lot of fear in terms of investing in China.

So you see a little bit of a reverse premium in China. But in terms of American Electric vehicle companies that follow the same strategy that Lucid is proposing, well, Lucid pretty much is proposing a complete copy to Tesla. I think it's fair to compare Lucid's strategy to Tesla's and see how much of that it can actually benefit from. Lucid will be copying Tesla's model by launching a premium expensive car first the Lucid Air, then working its way down to cheaper models in order to be affordable to a broader market.

It's copied a lot of Tesla's design focuses, in my opinion, focusing on a new generation of luxury vehicles that puts an emphasis on sustainability experience, simplicity, refinement, and less on flash and elegance. If you notice a lot of the luxury items that a lot of people used to idolize back 10 20 years ago, well, they're now moving from that elegant, materialistic sort of product to now. the simple, simple-minded sustainable, clean, not complicated, all that good stuff. and that's sort of what you're getting with Lucid.

And you got that with Tesla. Lucid also has its own manufacturing capacities and develops tests and fine-tunes them entirely in-house It buzz some of the best in industry batteries. It's also planning on taking some notes out of Tesla's energy storage business. Lucid has plans to use its battery technology to make energy storage solutions as well.

Hubba Bubba aside at the end of the day, what the two main factors are when it comes to a successful company is number one: the market that it's entering in number two: its value proposition in said market. Lucid, of course, is in the Ev market. and that's something that's projected to grow dramatically in the next five to ten years, and especially over the next 10 to 20 years. In terms of value proposition, it offers a lot of value.

Its products are competitive. They have the refined, sustainable, and luxurious look of the Teslas. It has batteries that rival the Model S. It has the ability to meet its production demands.

Because of its investments in manufacturing. It has a robust pipeline mapped out in terms of expansion of its model line and its expansion into international markets. Proven competent leadership team from Tesla, Jaguar, Apple, Volkswagen, Intel, all over the place, it has the ability to meet production demands because of its investments in manufacturing. With all this, as this company pushes more sedans out to market and reaches bigger scale, the total addressable market will increase substantially.

And we've seen that happen with Tesla. But of course, when we're making a video about a single stock, I have to also talk about the negatives. What if customers don't adopt the cars? What if there are massive production and delivery delays? Tesla had this problem multiple times in the past. What if competition comes in and quashes Lucid's potential a few years down the line? What if something in the supply chain breaks and that harms Lucid's reputation? I mean, I can go on and on.

There's a lot of barriers to entry, but I think that when you put everything together, you put their value proposition, the total addressable market, and then you factor in a little bit of luck. You're not getting too bad of a deal for Cciv, as long as you're willing to hold through that volatility, Because at the end of the day right now, the truth is that we're in a market condition. We don't know how long this is going to last, but we're in the market condition where everybody is panic selling anything that looks like future. If it says future sell, sell, sell, the future's not coming, Don't buy things from the future We went from a cycle of everybody looking at Tesla and saying oh my God.

Tesla's leading all the sustainable energy stocks or all the new future stocks to a market condition where everybody's panic selling. But just because the mood of the market changed does not mean that the underlying value of the companies that we talk about change. If you value them correctly, that's great. You can get them at cheaper prices.

So yes, in summary, with all this volatility going on, we're seeing huge Ev plays get beat down massively under their true value. But in totality, I don't see a world where Cciv makes it to the market with the corresponding valuation that it has right now and then doesn't wake up. I think this makes sense to be more of like an 80 to 100 million valuation play once it starts rolling out vehicles and we see some proof of concept and with that that would put us at like 60 65 a share. we'll call it 55 to be a little bit more pessimistic.

Anyways, folks, if you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us in the comments section below. If you have another play that you'd like me to discuss in future videos and do a breakdown just like I did with Cciv, let me know in the comment section below. I've been reading almost all of your comments, especially the ones that come out in the first 24 hours and that helps guide the topics that we talk about in these videos because then I'll know what you want me to cover and what you want me to break down. So make sure to comment below.

if you have any ideas for what you'd like me to cover, specific stocks, specific market events, whatever you want, I will accept the challenge and I will cover it anyways. folks, go ahead and comment below. Let me know what you think about today's market condition. Let me know what your plan is.

If you'd like to learn how to trade, would like to keep up to date with our private chat and daily morning briefings. I'll put the link in the description below. If you'd like to get some free stocks, would like to trade in the after hours in pre-market well go ahead and sign up with Weeble. I'll put the link to that in the description below as well.

Anyways, have a great day and I'll see you in the next video.