Okay folks, in this video, we gotta give a violent update on the market. and then I want to talk about ooga booga AMC We have to discuss what the data says is coming for AMC stock. There's a lot to know we're going to get right into it. Okay, Marketa So today's session did not end pretty.

The lovely S P took the biggest one-day drop in, the biggest two-day breather overall that we've seen since the market reversal back on the 14th. I Mean, it's not that much of a breather considering how fast we've recovered, but the market is quite a trickster, ain't she? Perhaps these last few weeks were just an elaborate April Fool's joke and tomorrow she's gonna say huh? Just kidding. The Market's like not only did I April Fool you, but I Also, rug pulled you? That sounded better in my head. but I'm telling you folks, you stare at these charts long enough you realize the market has quite a sick, sick sense of humor.

But from a logical analysis standpoint like we were talking about back on: Friday When you've re-added this much valuation and thus risk and you're not that far away from all-time highs that we sold off on, you simply have to ask yourself, have things gotten better since the beginning of January when we hit these levels here at all-time Highs Are there less risks now than there were back then? If there are more risks, well has risk appetite increased in the last three months? To me, it seems like for the moment the Panic has been removed from the market and the Panic usually takes up a lot of the downtrend. But folks, There's real logical reason for the market to be trading below all-time highs. It's because the risks over the short to medium term time Horizon need to be factored into the price. The higher and harder you go here, the more and more you ignore the main risks that the market sold off at in the first place.

I Believe that you need a big win to really get a breakout and you're probably going to need a win with inflation I used to say inflation and Russia but the more that I look at the situation, the less I Think that there's it's even possible to get a win with Russia even if they completely decide to leave Ukraine tomorrow. It's not like sanctions, just go down overnight. It seems like to me the one win that the market would be extremely relieved on is stabilizing prices. Speaking of which, you also have the Feds preferred inflation reading come out today the Pce and it was hot 5.4 year-over-year which is the largest increase in nearly 40 years.

This is, of course, excluding both food and energy prices. Imagine if we could do that when we're trying to get into shape. Hey Doc I Don't know why I'm getting so fat if you exclude food from my total calorie counts I Basically ate nothing this month and the doctors just like, oh, don't worry, your weight gain is only transitory. Let me tighten that belt a little bit.

That'll fix the problem. It's not your food eating, that's the problem. But yeah. Inflation.

Hot. inflation bad. In other news, the White House made some moves to bring down oil prices, unlocking reserves, and quote pressing oil companies to do their part to reduce gas prices. It's actually pretty interesting how much rhetoric can drive prices.

Remember current present day World Prices are not just based on the current present-day supply and demand, but based on the speculation of where supply and demand will be one, two, three, four plus months from now. And the magic password to calm the speculators who were adding on to the prices is to convince them that you're going to soften the blow by one opening up oil reserves, but far more importantly, increasing production in a very, very sizable way. But speaking of magic passwords and passwords I don't know about you, but I have about 50 different passwords for 50 different accounts and I don't remember any of them now. Sure, you could use a social media app like Facebook to log into multiple accounts, but the issue with that is if that account gets hacked, so do all the connected accounts we got to be concerned with.

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Okay, let's get right into it. AMC So it had a really nice and hot run from 12 9 to 34-33 in the span of no time at all. Monday was up like 45 Tuesday It tried even higher and popped in the morning, sold off and then you have that delayed Halt and it never really. He has been able to re-pick up the steam sets obviously that day was followed by a dramatic downtrend yesterday, and it's still trying to find its bearings though we are still a decent amount higher than we were when we were trading last week, right? So overall, on a week by week basis, a lot of progress has been made, despite the last couple of days being pretty bad.

I Mean if the stock had moved gradually to this point instead of its huge burst on Monday a lot of folks would be extremely happy right now, but it's that first Monday push that allowed for the Tuesday and Wednesday punch backs to be so painful. And from my perspective, one of the crucial Battlegrounds for AMC is the Battleground to be in the 30s. that seems to be the common level where AMC tries to break above and then you get this massive massive dumping. There's certain lines in battle where if you can cross that line, you kill the morale of the other side and you boost the morale of your own Army causing things to move a lot more aggressively in your favor.

Now, if you want to see a broader Trend reversal and continue seeing this wave of momentum not die off, I Think that you're going to need to see this. at least hold them to the 20s. That would prom it for another attempt in the next couple weeks back into the 30s. But what you don't want to see is this: go back down below 20 and start going to 15 or 12 again.

And all of a sudden, you got all the morale crushed morale. Even though it's cooled off, the last couple days is still very, very hot. It's hotter than it's been in like a long time. It's hotter than it's been in probably six months.

This is a very, very crucial time period for this to hold and retain itself. If it can retain itself here, it can build on that and retain itself into the 30s and then take back the 30s. Now at least before the after hours you were looking at AMC and it hadn't declared a new support. It was kind of in a free fall.

The next support level that has been tested is 20. So if you do see tomorrow or through the beginning of next week, a lot more selling pressure. You want to look for it to retain value there. Now the nice rally in the after hours helps them.

It was sparked by Gme's decision to split shares which pushed Gme 14 up Plus in the after hours and caused AMC to have a nice sympathy rally. Obviously they both have very similar bass momentum and they also trade very sympathetically to one another, which is very, very nice because there's always one Catalyst in one of them during these hot market conditions calculation. That's interesting with the split on Gme is that psychologically, especially amongst retail traders who support the stock, a cheaper price per share is a huge huge deal. I Think that's one of the big advantages, especially last year that AMC had cheaper and more palatable for somebody to buy a lot of shares and feel like they had a lot of the company.

and I do think that this Jimmy Catalyst has the potential to bring in a lot more attention, especially once they actually approve it and then do it. But going back to AMC and the situation it finds itself in how I describe its price action is that it tends to work in a way where the organic sellers get over represented again and again and the organic buyers get underrepresented again and again. Part of that is of course how trades are executed. Part of that is due to buying demand or bullish demand, overall flowing more and more to options instead of buying actual shares, and part of that is due to the aggressive Short Selling by many different methods.

When you have organic cells weighing so much more than organic buys, the only way you can get a rising price that's sustainable is if organic buying pressure is just so extreme and goes up so fast that you still blow through the unequal weight 80. it's sort of like in a sports game if you rig the game so that team A is favored. While that doesn't necessarily mean that Team B is going to lose, it just means that Team B has to push so much harder and do so much better in order to make up for the unfair disadvantage. even if the referee is against Team B Hey, there's only so much the referee can do to keep Team B down well, unless of course the referee decides to call the game off entirely.

That's pretty effective, but in order to forecast whether or not demand and momentum will continue to overpower selling pressure I Want to take you over to this piece that I read this morning one that was headlined on Reuters as retail Traders splurge on risky plays, fueling bounce. It lays out how rapidly the market shifted in the last three weeks and what the situation looks like moving forward. It talks about Gme and AMC nearly doubling in price, and it talks about a rebound in Arc Tesla growth, names, and crypto doing very well. but then it says hither while the rebound has been pinned on everything from quarter and rebalance into relief that the FED is finally training its sights on inflation, Retail investors have definitely played a significant part with the sacks of Goldman forecasting.

in a recent note that households will continue to deploy some of their 15 trillion in cash Holdings into the equity. Market Another important quote hither Retail: Traders Net purchases of stocks and ETFs totaled 5 billion this past week compared with a one-year average of 3.4 billion. Two big takeaways here: Firstly, retail participation in the last week has been up 50 percent, about 50 percent more than the one-year weekly average. You're seeing a dramatic shift of retail back and interested in this market as the market has rebounded Retail Traders have been taking advantage of the rebound.

Secondly here, Goldman Sachs forecast 15 trillion dollars of cash Holdings that could be used to go back into the equity markets if you consider that only 93 billion dollars of capital has flowed into U.S Equity Market Since the start of the year, there's a decent amount more capital on the sidelines here than I would have thought that is waiting on the sidelines and is ready to pour back in when it's appropriate. It could also mean quick or bought up dips in some of the growth names. But importantly in circling this back to AMC and Gme an overall meme. Revenge Trading The huge rise in Risk on trade trading, especially in the more spec names, was driven by retail retail.

Traders have been pouring buying in the large cap names that were more popular earlier in the year and shifting into more speculative stocks as quote younger and more aggressive investors try to recoup year-to-date losses. Vanda's analyst said this investor base is now purchasing mainly speculative meme stocks, call options and cryptocurrencies which are the two main meme Revenge stocks that get bought up when retail spec trading Capital comes back. well, your AMC and your Gme and the ones that people think are going to run up after those already run up the second, third, fourth, and fifth tier meme Revenge stocks. But you look at the data from trade alert.

this battle is increasingly being fought in the options chain, which is complicating things a bit pretty much Since July you've had a consistent increase in the one month moving average of open calls over puts. put. In other words, right now there are about 1.8 calls open for everyone. put you refer back to the price action.

The only time period where it puts outweighed calls on a 30-day basis was right right around that original July early August trading after the June dump, but ever since that the amount of coal substantially outweighed puts. Despite the overall downtrend continuing, month after month after month calls kept up trending during this time period. So you had a massive Divergence where people were taking on more and more bullish calls instead of buying shares and the stock just kept going down and down and down. Now if that Capital was deployed in buying the shares, that would have had more of a bullish presence and probably wouldn't have gutted the price as much.

But obviously the point is that the folks that were bullish on AMC seem to be relying more and more on the options chain as AMC went down and down and down. Saying this from an analysis standpoint, I'm not saying one is a better way to play it. you can play it however you want I don't care and options can certainly affect the actual underlying prizes. For example, if a lot come into the money and have to be hedged for by buying shares.

but like we saw in the last weekend with many other stocks, hey, at the end of the day, market makers do have a lot of upper hands in the options chain as well. But what's interesting is that during this new rise of retail participation in the market, you've had a return of the demographic that is more statistically likely to buy direct shares rather than just options. And I think that if you're looking towards motivating factors, you're looking back towards that. Ryan Cohen Catalyst on Gme where he bought shares and that catalyzed the price and then sympathy rallies in AMC You're also looking at the Hymc purchase that AMC did and the subsequent run.

You're looking at the overall stable markets that took a breath and a lot of rebound trading came in. and you're looking at the overall hope that another Catalyst for one of these two things is on the horizon. at the end of the day, the split is the latest Catalyst that we see. Hopefully we get some more AMC acquisition news or other good news for one or two of these stocks.

But this is the most important time that we've seen in six plus months for these names to actually rebuild momentum. If not at least, show that they can retain value at higher and higher. Battlegrounds What people don't want to see is a period of time where it goes up dramatically and then almost immediately after it sells off. That kills morale.

It hurts the ability to get more momentum Capital Buying in and it makes it so that you have to restart the process. If you do, you get another Catalyst down the road. What you want is an overall uptrend with higher and higher retaining values that keeps getting new and new catalysts and as a result keeps driving more and more momentum in what drives the stock. Upward at these levels is insane buying pressure.

If you want to ask whether or not AMC is going to keep going up, you have to ask. Is there going to be insane buying pressure in the future to overpower the insane selling pressure that comes at regular intervals and going back a little bit earlier in this video perception is really key here. The perception of AMC's ability to actually have a new wave is very strong right now. If you have somebody back in January who wasn't a complete AMC devotee if AMC could go up 40 in a single day, very few people would say yes.

they'd say no. That was a 2021 thing. Back in the day the perception was. it's just going to keep going down and down and down today if you ask anybody.

Oh, could tomorrow be a day where AMC goes up 40? They'd say well, it's possible when you have morale this high and perception is that? oh well. We're in a period where AMC can regain huge momentum. All of a sudden, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy where more people are willing to buy in because there's more of a chance. So that's why when I say AMC this is the time.

So important to acknowledge that hey, when there is momentum and when there is a lot of people paying attention, that is when you want retaining values. That is when you want a lot of buying pressure to pour in because if it doesn't get it now and it goes back down, it's going to be a lot harder to restart the momentum ball. Anyways, folks that caps off the video thank you again to Nord Pass for sponsoring us today. Make sure to sign up Below have a good one folks and I'll see you in the next video.

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