Okay folks, so we have a special one for you today. in this video, we're going to be talking about two different stocks Lucid which reported earnings yesterday and is dramatically down from all-time highs and so flies so far which reported earnings a couple hours ago and popped massively in the after hours up about 22 in this video, I want to break down the trajectory that these companies are on what they've just reported and to some extent help you answer the question of whether these companies deserve your purchase or your conviction during these trying market conditions. And boy, they are trying. Check out the time stamps below.

But let's get right into it. Lucid, Lucid, Lucid, We've had a long history, haven't we? From the day you were a baby spak named Cciv to the day you became a massive retail momentum stock, to then the day that you got massively beat down again and then all of a sudden, to the day that serious capital started taking you well seriously and started investing in you in mass, and now once again in a down cycle where capital has been abandoning you. The relationship between lucid and the stock market is quite a story of love and hate and then love again and then hate again. It's like a teenage relationship, but of course, luckily, stocks are attached to companies.

It's not just the whims of the masses, it's just mostly the whims of the masses and yesterday lucid reported earnings and that call can be summarized very quickly in basically this one little section here: Demand is hot as hell, Reviews are hot And positive, but current day production is weak. Very, very weak. This isn't a huge surprise. The market and we on the channel were expecting this to some extent, but it was a decent amount weaker than expectations.

Let's just say that investment in future production and future mass scaling is extremely aggressive and strong though. But in this current market condition, people are just focusing on the here and the now and the here and now is weak. Let's go line by line to the specifics. So customer reservations now exceed 25 000 reflecting strong consumer demand and potential sales of more than 2.4 billion.

Their first model, the Lucid Air, which we've talked about a lot on this channel, got awarded the 2022 Motor Train Car of the Year. We know that they also won the 2022 Luxury Green Car of the Year. Green Car Reports named Lucid Air the best car to buy in 2022, and Motorweek named it the best Ev. Overall, A lot of very strong reviews and awards and huge accomplishments for a new Ev company, and that's partially because the specs are killer.

You get up to 520 miles on a single charge, which right now is industry leading. Also, they are reportedly the fastest charging Evs with the ability to deliver up to 300 miles of range in approximately 22 minutes. Now, if you're a customer trying to decide which Ev to buy in the increasingly competitive niche, well, what are you looking for? Well, you're probably looking for looks, quality, performance, but also very, very specific and easily quantifiable measures like battery range, how fast and convenient it is to charge that battery. The lucid air leading in these categories makes a strong case for continued accelerated demand, and we have been seeing that with the reservations, but again, the deliveries are very, very slow.

Excruciatingly slow production exceeded 400 vehicles as of February 28th. With 125 customer deliveries in 2021 and 300 deliveries to date, they still are going to be exponentially scaling their vehicle production this year. 2022's total production outlook is now at 12 000 to 14 000 vehicles, which is a big jump from what they are currently doing. But if you look back at what they were forecasting in last summer's investor presentations, they were forecast in about 20 000 vehicles to be delivered in 2022.

Adjusting downward from 20 000 to twelve to fourteen thousand is a big, big disappointment. You're talking thirty to forty percent off original estimates, and I think this is why the stock market reacted so strongly to this. As somebody who does like lucid over the long run, I was thinking, hey, maybe these original expectations would be adjusted by 20 to 25, but not 30 to 40 percent. This is certainly another level and kind of paints a picture of what were they basing their original estimates on back last summer when they were trying to drum up investor capital and the implications are pretty obvious.

This does set back the overall revenue trajectory of the company quite a bit. You're now going to see worse sales numbers in 2022, and probably in 2023 as well. You'll probably also see some of the 25 000 reservations that Lucid holds right now cancel because they don't want to wait right now. Demand does not seem to be a problem for Lucid, and I think they'll make up for those cancellations fairly quickly.

But at the same time, the longer that Lucid waits to actually fulfill these deliveries, the less competitive their vehicle is because other Ev manufacturers are going to roll out cars that have better performance, better battery, and better specs. Overall, they do have some margin for air in terms of their competitiveness because they did come out very, very high above their competition. But as the clock ticks, that margin gets closed and closed and closed. Not a doomsday forecast for Lucid, but certainly not a good one either.

Lucid Ceo has said that the delay has to do with commodity parts such as glass and carpet being in short supply. He didn't talk much about microchips or semiconductors. I should say he said on the bright side, we believe that we will move past the key bottlenecks we are experiencing in the next few months with further improvement in the second half. Other good news: They were selected to be in the Nasdaq 100 Index back in December.

They bolstered their balance sheet to over 6.2 billion in cash on hand at year end. Net loss for 2021 was about 2.58 billion, and it's probably going to go up a lot more in 2022 as the company attempts to scale up so dramatically. Which if you do some simple math, it does suggest that Lucid is going to be able to get away without doing any substantial share offering or debt offering for at least the next 12 to 18 months, maybe even 24 months. That said, just because they don't have to doesn't mean they won't, And obviously, this is a very capital intensive business.

Bad news though, they have delayed their Gravity Suv, which was originally slated for 2023. Now, they are targeting the first half of 2024.. this is again a big shame. Releasing it in 2023 would have allowed it to go head-to-head with a lot of the rising competition in that niche that already exists and also the rising competition that is going to be existing in the next 12 to 18 months as they first introduce and roll off the lots.

Delaying their Suv to the first half of 2024 puts their Suv in a whole nother ball game, one that's going to have a lot more competition with better specs, but we still don't know what the specs of the Gravity are going to be anyway. So perhaps Lucid is going to be able to use that time to actually improve upon those as well. But in terms of good news, they did report that their 2.85 million square foot expansion of their Arizona manufacturing facility is well on track and they will be opening a new manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia, which of course is a big investor in Lucid. This new manufacturing facility in the Middle East will provide up to 3.4 billion in value over the next 15 years and should be able to build up to 150 000 units, which is substantial.

Of course, being in the Saudi market is huge, they are some of the biggest consumers of luxury cars. Now I think that if you put this overall latest earnings call, update together. The conclusion is that Lucid is laying out and investing heavily in international expansion. They'll be opening 12 more retail stores in North America, Europe, and the Middle East just this year alone, which is actually a pretty fast speed to expand.

Tesla was very slow and steady to expand into Europe, or it seems like Lucid is making investments to prepare itself for a big splash if it works. that could pay off Huge for Lucid in a much shorter period of time. But the fact overall is that Lucid, like Tesla, and every other Ev manufacturer, will have to incur several years, if not more minimum of deep losses to actually build out a brand and sustainable, scalable business. During that time period, you're going to have huge setbacks right now.

This is certainly a setback. Don't look at it any other way. They are getting hit by the supply chain shortage like a lot of other manufacturers are, but they do at the same time have a lot of demand, have competitive specs, and are making substantial investments to build out an adequate supply in the future. The other thing is that obviously last year, the market was willing and able to pay a much higher multiple for the future of a company.

This year, capital has retreated dramatically and discounted that future by quite a lot. A lot of companies that have very, very bright futures ahead of them are actually down 90 to 95 from all-time highs. The market has basically said, if it's in the future, we don't want it garbage and as long as that's the case, Lucid is going to have to earn bit by bit its valuation and earn growth in its valuation, which is going to take scaling up of sales and eventual profitability. But I think they'll be able to do it.

I think that Lucid is going to be able to continue a long run growth trajectory, building out huge production capacity and delivering vehicles via that production capacity. They'll be able to do that not just domestically, but also internationally, which should provide a huge, huge market for the company. What's most important is that the Ev market is just starting to accelerate, and really, for that, that main market that Lucid is trying to penetrate, Lucid is well on track. It just doesn't really have as big of a head start on that track as maybe we had hoped it would have.

Okay, next, so fly so far. So I think that Sofi really beat everybody's expectations today. Whether you were a bull or a bear, you were surprised, which was again shown on the chart. Here's a rundown of what happened: They reported record Gap and adjusted revenue for Fourth Quarter and full year 2021.

Fourth Quarter Gap revenue is up 67 year-over-year Fourth Quarter adjusted Ebata is five million and positive for the sixth straight quarter. On Sunday's video, I said in regards to Sophie that what we are looking at is members, Members members. That's what matters, That is what we're focused on. And boy are they growing.

Members supported a record 523 000 quarterly new member ads which is up 39 sequentially and a record 906 000 new product ads which is up 51 sequentially. If you look at the charts they presented, it shows they were winning in literally every arena. Members: huge, consistent growth Quarter over quarter over quarter over Quarter products moved consistently up the last five quarters. Products by segment financial service products which have driven most of Sofi's recent growth over the last couple of years, is up substantially and going parabolic.

Even lending products which the Federal government basically went and broke the legs of by freezing Student loans is still somehow managing to see some consistent growth. and then tech platform accounts where Sofi uses Galileo and some other acquisitions to basically help fintech firms build out their own platforms is up steadily as well. So this was a huge winning year for Sofi, and the last quarter of the year was also a huge win. I would have been satisfied with just member growth, but we got almost everything.

And of course, they just received their bank charter. Finally, and they do expect that their in-house bank will start boosting results more meaningfully for Sofi in the second quarter, as well as enhance profitability. This is probably going to be a very slow and steady benefit, though you're going to see a scaling in of this and a scaling up of competitiveness. They have already started transferring Sofi money products to Sofi Bank, but it's going to take some time to really do that.

But over time, the self-sufficiency that Sofi is going to have with this bank charter should help enhance profitability and competitiveness. But again, analysts are going to hit so far for this segment. The bread and butter of Sofa's lending segment student loans is still broken and on the ground, but once the moratorium expires, if it does expire in May, this is going to get up and running and can join the rest of the segments in substantially growing. But overall, even with this So five forecasts adjusted net revenue of 1.57 billion for full year 2022, which if you go back to my estimate back in January, I was estimating about 1.3 billion.

so it certainly beat my expectations, at least in terms of guidance, we'll see what they actually hit. But if Sofi continues the pace of member acquisition that it has had in the last couple of quarters, this could certainly well beat my expectations and even beat Sofi's expectations. That said, I know that there's a general vibe right now of who cares if these growth companies or really any company is doing well right now. The market doesn't care about your growth, it doesn't really care about anything, it just wants to stay cash.

And what good is really a 20 after hours rally if it's just going to get pushed away and sold off two weeks from now? The fact of the matter is that the market doesn't care about the fundamentals of companies right now. it's just in fear and panic mode. and as long as we have the Fed and inflation weighing us down and increasingly what's happening over there in Europe, well, it's certainly going to be difficult for us to have consistent rallies that we can trust. But as I said with Upstart a couple weeks ago, when Upstart dramatically beat on earnings, what matters over the long run is the actual value and the scaling up of value that companies are providing to customers.

not just what multiple that the market is willing to pay for the current value of what they're doing for customers over the long run, it's revenue growth and future profitability that drives returns. Not what the Fed is doing, not what inflation is doing and not what the current day fear says one should do. So if you're somebody who is considering buying or is considering holding stocks that are reporting revenue growth and overall customer acquisition that is going up consistently, make sure to keep in mind that that is the long-term driver of whether you're going to get a return or not. And by the time that it's apparent that the market is once again willing to reward companies that have those characteristics, well, they will already be trading at much higher valuations, so something to consider.

So anyways, that caps off this video, have a good one and I'll see you in the next one. If you're looking to learn how to trade with Ziptrader U, we do have a link below and you'll get lifetime access to our private chat, our daily morning briefings, our full list of prize targets, as well as our step-by-step lessons. We'll also put a little coupon code below if you are interested. Check it out and that caps off today's video.

Have a good one we'll see in the next one.