Folks crucial banks are heading for massive failures in this video. I Want to explain to you why Credit Suisse A pillar of the Global Financial system is rapidly backing the rest of the financial system into a corner. And why? Shortly after the Bad: Credit Suisse news you saw, analysts come out from everywhere and media correspondents come out and say, oh, actually, there's no problem here. Don't worry when in reality, if you look at what the big money is doing behind the scenes, well, the big Money is very, very worried about this.

I'm going to show you all the receipts for this because you need to be informed on this issue And of course we're also going to be discussing what is going on with this market and why it's rallying ralito so much. Let's get to work timestamps down below and this video is brought to you by the up to 15 free stocks that you will get with MooMoo When you sign up using the link down below Canadian users can get up to 50 AUD cash back. Terms and conditions apply. Okay, let's get to work.

So let's go ahead and start with today's market. So we've entered into these first two trading days of Q4 and markets have been getting some solid relief. and why is that? Well, you're starting to see some of the factors that drove this last bear Market rally Come back in full swing. Investors are back to expecting the FED to Pivot and not trusting the restrictive policy they are laying out as Bloomberg reported this morning quote.

While these so-called Fed pivot has long been hoped for, it got another jolt this week with the release of weaker than expected manufacturing data in the U.S the dollar extended losses Tuesday and European equities jumped following a similar rally in the U.S on Monday Slowdowns everywhere. a cascading of risk factors causing people to be a little bit more cautious on how far the FED is going to go and at the same time, a job report just came out today that showed that job openings plunged by more than 1.1 million in August. That's a 10 drop from July when job openings are plunging 10 percent month over month and accelerating that pace. Well, then all of a sudden, a few more months of this and you're not too far away from jumping from more jobs than people to more people people than jobs folks.

If anybody tries to look you in the face and tell you that we are in a strong and stable economy, ask them how strong and stable a 10 percent month-over-month reduction in job openings is. If they respond by saying yeah, that's totally normal, well go and get some of what they're smoking because that stuff is really, really good. We are also at a point where the UN is coming out and calling on the Fed and other central banks to Halt interest rate increases, saying that they are risking a global economic downturn so not in an effect, You put all of these together and markets are back to doubting the Fed's stance on this issue. If you go over and you yield for the bond yields short dated U.S yields just dip back below the four percent key level, which likely triggered a lot of Algo buyers, as well as bond yields go down.

Of course, they become less attractive and stocks become inversely more attractive again. Which means all of a sudden you have all these Algos that are like okay, well, I better go ahead and sell or I better go ahead and buy and so on and so forth. But really, at its core, this rebound is not just Algo Trading it's a new found appreciation for this Fed Pivot narrative. a newfound prediction that the FED pivot is going to come a lot faster than markets expected just a week ago, and if this sounds familiar, it's because it is familiar.

This has already happened several times throughout the overall downtrend this year, and the FED has disappointed every single time. People right now are buying the dip betting that the FED is going to change their policy trajectory. but I would be very, very cautious on that because that is not what the FED is saying, at least not publicly. In fact, New York Fed President John Williams came out late in yesterday's session and said monetary policy is quote not yet in a restrictive place for growth.

My view is we still have a significant ways to go, so he's telling Market I See, you're discounting bond yields I See that you're pouring back into the markets and you're rallying thinking that we're gonna pivot. but we aren't going to Pivot. Listen to my words, we aren't going to Pivot. But of course, this brings us back to that question of The credibility of the FED.

There's a constant fight between the FED what they're saying they're going to do and what markets think the FED is going to do. And those two things are very, very different. For example, right now, we know that the FED is telling us by year end 2023, we are going to reach a Target rate at 450 to 5. higher if inflation is worse.

That's a very, very clear policy trajectory that they laid out, but you go over to What markets think the FED is actually going to do well. You go over to the FED futures for the December 13 2023 meeting and the prediction is centered around a target range of 400 to 425 basis points, which sounds like just a slight little pansy difference from what the FED is actually saying at 450 to 5, averaging out at 4.6 but it's really not a slight difference if you look at the distribution of the probabilities. Right now, markets are only factoring in a 12.9 chance that the FED follows through on their target trajectory, but the market is factoring in a 26.1 percent chance the FED is going to undercut themselves, a 30.1 percent chance the FED is going to seriously undercut themselves, a 20 chance the target Target rate is only going to go up another 50 basis points, and an 8 chance another 25 basis points. In other words, the FED Futures show that the market does not trust the Fed's policy trajectory, which means that the market has not priced in the Fed's policy trajectory.

Which means that if the FED does go through with its policy trajectory that it's laying out, which is more restrictive then all of a sudden. that means that stocks have a lot farther to fall Right now. Markets are factoring in a Fed pivot that takes place in 2023.. it was moving farther out.

Now it's moving back to 2023.. If The Fed is pivoting in 2023. It means what it means that there is a massive systematic risk that is going and exploding the economy and causing massive Financial pillars to collapse to the extent that the FED needs to needs to Pivot. For me, I Think it's impossible to predict when the FED is going to Pivot, but we do know that when the FED pivots, that is going to be go time.

That is when all of a sudden you see widespread Capital go back into pretty much every market and you probably end up getting a massive way wave of even worse inflation after that pivot cycle is over. Folks Let me know. when you think the FED is going to Pivot in the comments section down below. Okay, so let's go over to the banking situation.

So there are thousands of banks in this world, but there are only a few a handful that work as foundational banks that the rest of the banks sit on and rely on, and the entire economy the global economy rely on. and these are called systematically important. Banks The Financial Stability Board has a running list of these Banks and ranks them by additional Capital buffers that they have. You'll find Banks like JPMorgan Chase at the top of the ticket.

Moving down, you'll see Banks like Citigroup Bank of America Barclays Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs and then at the bottom with the lowest capital buffers, you'll see Banks like Credit Suisse Now there's almost 30 banks on this list, but if any of them fail, a single one fails folks. It can create a contagion that causes an entire region to go under, and of course can easily easily spread internationally. Credit Suisse for example, is considered one of the most systematic, likely important Banks It's the second largest bank in Switzerland. It's responsible for tons and tons of global assets, and if it collapses all the other banks that work with it, all of the businesses that rely on its lending and investment products and capabilities.

while all of them are going to get killed. if those get killed, more will get killed that depend on them And all of a sudden you have a domino effect. That's how 2008 happened. That's how the Roman Empire fell.

and that is how Titanic sank the collapsing of big Banks. So what is the state of Credit Suisse While CNN reports Credit Suisse's business is under serious strain, it's preparing to shrink its Investment Bank and beef up its wealth management arm. an expensive Endeavor that could cost 6 billion Franc or 6.1 billion dollars for context. how much is that money to Credit Suisse While the market value of this bank is down 10.5 billion Franc already so far this year, and their remaining market cap is 11.5 billion.

So when your quote restructure, ensuring that they're trying to say they're doing just a safe routine restructuring, when you're restructuring is more than half the entire market value of your company. That's when you know you're in deep shite. You don't have just a little level of leaking of risking your boat, your boat is capsizing in an ocean of risk and you can barely see the tip anymore. Or should I say that Credit Suisse is trading just like swiss cheese.

It has massive massive holes in it and you're not supposed to notice. You're supposed to say oh yeah, I'm fine paying the same for Swiss cheese as I would with cheese that doesn't have massive gaping holes in it. Now, usually when you see some breaking news and a new report on some systematic risk that is coming for a major Bank while media will report on it and it will seem super scary. but then very quickly you'll start seeing damage control.

You'll start seeing a down plane of the risk. pretty soon. Every article will be. Oh, analysts say, don't worry, No problem here.

No problem. Everything is fine. Please do not compare this to Lehman Please do not compare this to anything that happened in the past that was bad because that's impossible. Possible to happen ever again.

History never repeats itself, nor does it ever rhyme. If we do the same thing this time, we can expect something different. But you have to ask yourself, where is the media and more importantly, these analysts that the media is reporting on getting their information from. Where are they getting these talking down? A fear, talking points.

The information almost always stems from the companies themselves sister Banks Regulators or other firms that have a vested interest in making sure that they don't cause a panic or a run on that specific bank or other. Banks or literally in the case of Credit Suisse The CEO comes out and he says don't worry if you want to create a run on a bank that clearly is having a huge risk problem. Well then you tell everybody that you have a huge risk problem and you don't talk them down and say oh, there's nothing to worry about, But if you want to stop a potential run like Credit Suisse most likely did, then you say oh, don't worry, we're restructuring but there's nothing there's nothing big to worry about. Don't you worry? don't you get a little tummy ache Because cause we got the Tums for you As if the bank would honestly tell you they are failing until it's too late to deny that they are failing And lots of Wall Street Folks and Global fund managers came out after the original panic and what did they say They say you should not worry about Credit Suisse You should not be worried about it.

But in reality, if you look at what they were doing behind the scenes, they themselves were very worried about Credit Suisse and still are very worried about Credit Suisse Credit default swaps on the bank Rose to levels well above the great financial crisis and why would somebody buy that? Well, it's basically an insurance policy that helps you hedge the risk of the bank failing. If people are buying that, that means that more and more people think the bank is going to fail at a level that we haven't seen since the 08 crisis. By the way, retail is not buying credit default swaps on Swiss banks. It's big international funds monitoring the rapid collapse of the global economy, right? So when you hear and the media, oh, nobody that knows, Nobody that knows the global economy, nobody that really know shows the financial system in and out and works in it and runs these Banks Nobody up there is concerned about this.

This is just stupid people at the bottom that try to follow this, but they just can't comprehend what's going on. No, no no no no, they are very worried about this and they were panicking this week and they still are panicking trying to find which which weak Link in the overall Financial chain is going to break first and I'm not saying it's going to be Credit Suisse but I am saying that when you find that weak link, it's going to be the same story. Oh my gosh, this is so bad. There's a huge problem at this bank and then the bank's going to come out and say don't worry, there's no problem here and then all the sister Banks Don't worry, there's no problem there And then The Regulators are going to go.

Oh no, don't worry. As they sip with their campaign donated wine, we made sure that their maintenance requirements and reserves were much higher than the GFC you will never have again any sort of financial crisis because we have permanently removed the possibility of that happening. So then the question becomes, well. Let's say for a moment that Credit Suisse is just a false alarm and it may very well be.

It may just be a poorly run bank that needs some insane restructuring because they are capsizing. Okay, fine, but what does that mean for the other systematically important Banks of which there are many others. If Credit Suisse which is one of the most powerful banks in the world is having these problems? Who is to say that the Global Financial tightening that hasn't happened ever before in history to this extent? Who is to say that that isn't going to cause or hasn't already caused massive weakness in one in just one of these other banks that is worse than Credit Suisse that is going to cause something that isn't a false alarm. One of the odds that say a single Chinese Bank goes under, or a bank that is very sensitive to Russia Ukraine sanctions go under, Or a bank that is in a country with hyperinflation and political instability? Who is to say that that doesn't go under? And what if asset prices start dopping so fast that large parts of A bank's balance sheet gets completely wiped out and it reveals some issues that we just simply didn't see before.

Quite frankly, if you look at most of the banks on this list, most of them are already trading at pretty distressed valuations. Is there not a reason for that? Is there not a reason that they are being beat down more than a lot of the other companies? Why is that folks? Why Is it Because maybe they're a lot more risky? Is it because a lot of them are very, very freaky? I mean the only ones on this list that aren't trading at extremely distressed valuations or the biggest American ones? What happens if some of those World Reserve Banks dare I say start going down? What if they start seeing more and more risk? What if you start seeing a Goldman Sachs a Bank of America or oof a JP Morgan start having problems? JP Morgan is one of the best banks in the world in terms of How It's run, in terms of the size and the trust in it and in terms of their reserves. What happens if all of a sudden everything under it, everything else around the world starts going under. What does that mean for JP Morgan which has lent to a lot of these regions? What does that mean for any of these? Banks So I guess the question that I have to leave you with is: if you look at this list, Do you think that we are going to go through this economic crisis that we are seeing in every part of the world without one Just one of these Banks Seeing a collapse Or just one of these Banks going into a failure region that some other bank has to go and take them over Or some country has to bail them out or it causes a massive, massive, cascading domino effect? Do you think there's a possibility that that doesn't happen and that everything can just be completely glossed over, even though we are tightening at a rate that we have never done before after Printing and inflating currencies at a rate that we have never done before after shutting everybody in their house like we have never done before, and potentially as the world goes into another massive war which has happened before.

Unfortunately, Do you agree with the Wall Street analysts that say Hey there is nothing to worry about now. everything is fine. Do you agree with them or do you think something bad is going to happen? Or at least the probabilities are tipping in that favor for me? I Understand, you can say it's fear-mongering I Don't believe that we are going to get out of this without some significance and some significant bruises and probably some broken bones. But on the other side, there's going to be some huge opportunities and I am looking forward to that.

Anyways, another peachy video that caps it off today. Folks, let us know what you think down below. If you want to get up to 15 free stocks with MooMoo make sure to hit that link down below. Terms and conditions apply.

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