Folks, an absolute bombshell has just dropped in the Middle East an escalation like we haven't seen before and something that is going to result in massive massive retaliation as country after country is now on high alert. A key leader of Hamas was just knocked out in Beirut by drone strike and it's triggering a massive escalation and a full-blown Black Swan event is now officially in effect. We've been talking for the last few months about this escalation of the West versus East war, and yesterday we spoke about how this has spread to the Red Sea and resulted in the second biggest shipping route and Canal in the world being effectively blocked and over the last 24 hours since we posted that video, while the Middle East crisis has escalated to new levels as I mentioned, just a few moments ago, there was a strike on a key Hamas leader, one of the highest ranking and most powerful leaders in the organization. You've now got Hezbollah promising a punishment for this killing.

You've got blasts in Iran You've got protesters shutting down major oil fields in Libya you have Turkey arresting dozens of people on suspicion of spying for Israel. Meanwhile, the US just quietly reached an agreement with Qatar to keep operating our largest military base in the Middle East. The timing of these things are anything but a coincidence, and in today's video, I'm going to walk you through everything that you need to know and then at the end of the video, we're going to be talking about how to look at these geopolitical events and then make informed trading decisions on them. plays that are effective in this kind of environment as well as how to protect your account.

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so this Salah Alori individual was one of the most powerful people within Hamas a deputy chairman and a founding commander of its military Wing Aru Rory's rise to power began in the 1990s when he first joined Hamas He quickly Rose through the ranks due to his dedication to the group's priorities and his supposed aptitude in putting together effect Ive military attacks. He demonstrated this aptitude and earned Hamas's trust over many decades by executing attack after attack after attack on Israel attacks including suicide bombings, rocket attacks, and even kidnappings. Aori became especially notorious for his involvement in the abduction and killing of three Israeli teenagers in 2014, which ultimately led to a major escalation in the Israel Gaza conflict at that time. But as of last year 2023, he became a lot more politically powerful and was at the center of negotiations between Gaza and Israel and other players around the world influencing that area.

Now this Ki Hamas figure was actually close buddies with Hezbollah where he played a big stinking role in cementing Hamas and Hezbo relations and coordinating attacks which is why Hezbollah is coming out and yelling at the top of their lungs today that we will retaliate. They're promising we will retaliate and the next level next stage retaliation from Hezbollah could be one of the ways that this Middle East crisis really really takes it to the next level and starts dragging in some other other players around the world in a way that we haven't seen yet. The 2006 Lebanon war serves as a prime example for how Hezbollah likes to retaliate and how hard they hit during that conflict. Hezbollah launched thousands of rockets into Israel targeting both civilian areas and military installations Hezbollah A much less technologically advanced and much smaller power compared to Israel also likes to use very targeted, strategic and asymmetric Warfare tactics to really inflict damage in a way that you can't otherwise.

For instance, Hezb devel an extensive network of tunnels and underground bunkers which serve as hideouts and weapons. Depot These assets allow Hezbollah to surprise attack the very very guarded Israel border something that you saw on October 7th from Hamas. but Hezb is in a different area up to the north and they have all these different roots that they've been saving to surprise attack Israel And this is exactly what they did during that 2006 Lebanon war and they've been planning new areas new avenues since then. Some of them have been used in the last couple of months.

some of them have not bit. Hezb is also known to utilize Guerilla Warfare tactics such as hit and run attacks and roadside bombings that are very, very effective historically at targeting Israeli military operations. Hezbollah is also known to employ cyber warfare techniques to disrupt Israeli command and control systems or launch disinformation campaigns to sew confusion amongst Israeli authorities. Now, depending on the severity of Hezbollah's retaliation, you'll likely see another retaliation from Israel that could end up getting Iran involved more which can easily be a back back and forth conflict like we've seen since October 7th which ends up getting much much louder and you start getting much much bigger.

World players involved and that is going to be a messy situation and that is not something that you want to see folks. No, no, no. Now at the same time, the US has reached a deal to extend its military Presence at its Qatar base and you could say Charlie Why is that significant? Why does that even matter? The US has a ton of military bases closer to Israel as well as in Israel. Why does this Qatar base even matter? Well, you see folks, this military base is not about Israel.

The reason this one is so important is because of its proximity to Iran. By having a military presence in Qatar, the United States can monitor and respond to any potential threats in the region, but particularly from Iran. It was also very helpful with Iraq. But but right now, it's really, really symbolic because it's right there next to Iran and ready to be deployed at any point necessary.

This base here is strategically position to launch air strikes and surveillance missions in and around Iran if necessary. At any point, folks, Qatar is a very, very key point to have a base because it's situated in the Arabian Peninsula close to the Persian Gulf and the straight of Horus which is a major choke point for Global oil. Transportation. The presence of a US military base in Coutur allows the US to protect its interests in the region, remain a superpower on the global stage and ensure its stability of oil supplies as well, and protect allly transports.

But most importantly, folks, it provides a launching pad for military operations in this region. Do a little bit of digging and you find that this base hosts a wide range of capabilities including airfields, ports, storage facilities, and these things allow the US military to respond quickly, effectively and decisively to any emerging threats or conflicts in the region. Now, the symbolism here though, is that Qatar committing to extending the base Presence At this point? Well, that is not a coincidence. it's not a coinkidink.

This is a coordinated message between the US and Qatar that the US is trying to send to Iran reminding Iran that military presence is here. It's here to stay and you better think twice before you get frisky my friend. Now the question is, will there be more aggression? Early speculation from allies of Iran and within Iran is blaming the west and or Israel for the blasts that they saw today that killed some hundred people. The blast that happened at a memorial site for us killed Iranian military commander Kasam Solomani.

So what do you think folks? Do you think that the Middle East crisis is over and we're heading into a berries and Roses peaceful period moving forward? Or do you you think things are getting worse? Let us know right down below. Moving on to markets, oil prices across the board had a big Green Day in reaction to what's going on over in the Middle East. But but in the overall Market It's the second trading day of the year and once again, it's a down day. We've had three down days since hitting recovery cycle highs on the 28th.

Now the question is, will this get bought up or are we just going to Simply Peak right before getting to all-time highs in the S&P 500. It's worth mentioning that the Dow and the NASDAQ 100 have already hit alltime highs. The S&P 500 is just the only one left. Well, this is how I would look at it.

In order to Mark a change of momentum, we've got to fall down past previous resistance at 4609, which is now the new support. That's another 2.2% drop, which is at least a few more days of downtrending, probably a week or two of downtrending. Without that, you haven't had a statistically significant challenge of momentum, so it's too early to even claim that momentum is gone. yet alone.

markets are heading downward Now if we broke that 4609 support. while at that point, you would need to fall and break that Cycle's dip support at 4358 to signify a downward direction that would also trigger a break below our red directional SMA line and would put us in a downward direction for markets and that in order for that to happen, you'd have to drop another 7.8% So my view: looking at the technicals on the chart and the overall situation, well, my view is that this is likely going to get bought up before either of these points are triggered, and we've talked about why. The overall setup with rate cuts and long-term history suggests a Q1 pump and then a Q2 rug pull. Now if this Black Swan event does continue to worsen, perhaps that thesis is proven wrong, but it's going to take a lot more escalation to derail this overall momentum need.

I Remind you again of what happened last year. We got through bad Catalyst after bad Catalyst the momentum still did not die. Next, Vix is on the uptrend if volatility and uncertainty continue to pick up. One way to play.

that is with the vix and the key way to play Vix is with options. Yes, you could also simply buy Uvxy which is just the straight up stock ETF Tracker, But but I would say that options are a much better use of your capital. and I'm looking at the 20th of March expiring 15 strike calls. Those are going for $2.80 to $285 15 Strike calls are at a level where you're out of the money enough or they're still cheap, but at the same time, 15 is a level that historically makes a ton of sense.

I Mean Vix is trading at levels that not just are low from the last few years compared to the last few years, but for the last 10 to 20 years, the odds of having a Vix Spike to 15 and even decently above there in the next couple of months is really, really high in my view, and really, really high. Historically, it just takes one big escalation for that to happen. even if you buy Vick's calls now and they lose money for another month or two and then all of a sudden one or two things happen and Vick spikes to 15. Well, that's still a good play.

It just takes again one big escalation for this to spike to 15 or above there, and we are already trading at 14. And quite frankly, if you want cheaper options, you could probably get away with going even farther out of the money and still be fine. A lot of people in the market seem to think that you can go all the way to a 20 strike price and you'll still be golden. As you can see, the open interest at 20 is really, really high.

It's one of the most popular contracts, so markets think Vix is heading higher sometime in the next 3 months now. Of course, Vix heading higher does in part at least contradict the Spy pump, but but again, these things don't have to work in tandem. One thing can go up rapidly over a two-e period, while the other thing dumps, and then all of a sudden, the overall trend in the other thing is still up. So again, those things don't have to work in tandem.

If you get a massive selloff, you're going to be happy that you have a hedge that actually earns you money before the other thing goes back up. Moving on though, Why the hell Charlie Would you want to play options instead of stocks Charlie Why do you keep talking about options? Why do you care so much about options I Thought they were optional. Well, they really shouldn't be, folks. Let me give you an example.

Let's say you bought Apple at 166 near lows in October 2023. Well, you did a pretty damn good job. It ended up going all the way to$ 19962. That's about a 20% run, give or take.

Fantastic. But what if you have A small account? How many shares are you going to be able to buy? Not not many. If you bought 50 shares of Apple you're already spending 8,300 bucks. That's too much money for people with small accounts and super small accounts.

Especially, you don't have 8,300 to spend on one position. Maybe you got 800 bucks to spend on one position if you're just starting. And at that point A Plus 20% gain isn't even going to do much for you. But if you bought Apple call options with say a 190 strike price expiring January 19th 2024.

Well, at that time those were trading at about $1.70 and then they ended up running to $11.70 at highs on the 14th of December. So options allowed you to trade the same exact move with a ton more leverage. Those options didn't just go up 20% like the stock ran. No, they went up 588 per.

So if you have a small account, let's say $100 $11,000 $5,000 Whatever It Is Well Your money would have gone way way further with options. Now of course, don't get me wrong, if you don't know how to play options, you don't know how to trade them. Well, you could end up losing a lot more money than just buying straight up shares. So there certainly needs to be straty and clear education behind your options trading.

And luckily for you, we did just build a brand new course for folks looking for an A through Z guide to learn options trading. Our A through Z program for complete beginners is right down there below. Check it out, watch the video and see if we're a good fit for you. 2024 is a great time to learn options.

Start the new year off right with a new skill coupon code. Lo 2024 will get you 50% off before check out. Looking forward to seeing you there anyways. folks have a good one and we'll see you in the next video.