Okay folks, so I want to give a violent update on today's market a rather quick one. And then I want to get into the main entree. I want to introduce one 1.27 stock that a lot of folks are looking at right now and talking about. A Lot of folks think there's a very, very intriguing setup here because it mimics a lot of other setups we've seen over the last few months that ended up going and running quite a bit.

The stock has been running and right now is testing some crucial breakout points. I'm going to break down the stock, the setup, and my projections on it. I'm going to talk about whether or not I agree that this has a high probability of well exploding when thou summoth Charlie to give his opinion on a trade Charlie must giveth also. Quick plug our extended 4th of July sale on Zip Trader.

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Okay, so let's go ahead and start with the market. We are experiencing a nice little green streak in the market right now and it's taking a breather from that aggressive downtrend and catching itself. I think markets are looking at dropping commodity prices pretty much everywhere and are saying hey, well, this ain't too shabby. Dropping commodity prices cause inflationary pressures to calm down, which is great news because you do not want stubborn commodity prices at the same time where you're being pushed off a cliff.

The worst case scenario is a stag flighting economy of slowing down growth at the same time where commodity prices still stay hot. Of course, the short-term day-over-day and week-over-week trends don't really mean a lot, but in terms of how the market thinks, that's kind of how it thinks. How do we trade off the data that we have right now in the present and the pricing pressures that we're seeing evaporate in commodities? Like I said in my video where I talked about the main steps to seeing the market actually to clear a bottom. one of the earliest ones, and the biggest ones in terms of at least turning a new chapter is energy prices peaking and then the rest of commodities peaking and declaring a convincing downtrend.

It would be great if that has actually started now, and markets are trying to factor in the chance of that to a very, very small extent. Markets are going up just a little bit, thinking hey, maybe there's a possibility there, but folks, unfortunately, I doubt it. If anything, commodities are getting bludgeoned because people are expecting a massive bludgeon to demand, not an increase in overall supply for these things. We know that's what's driving recent small downtrends in the oil market, for example.

This morning, we also got news of reports that layoffs have soared in June to 32 517, which is a 57 jump, A 57 jump month over month, and the highest total since February 2021 when you got that huge surge of Omicron or whatever the damn virus at the time was. was it Delta? 57 jump is a huge jump month over month. I think a lot of it came from startup tech, crypto, mortgage players, and a lot of those companies that have just started getting really, really hurt by the rising borrowing costs and the inflationary pressures. But as time goes on and you start seeing bigger and bigger companies get hurt, that's going to be a big red flag, right? and at a trajectory where it's growing 57 month over month.

it doesn't take too long for this to really get out of hand. Now, in terms of future catalyst, the next Cpr report comes out on Wednesday. This is going to be for the month in June, so a lot of the slowing down of energy prices aren't going to be factored in to that report. Which means that things may actually be a little bit better, at least in terms of inflation than what the report is showing.

And then at the end of the month you have the Fomc meeting and then you have the next Gdp report for Q2. So we've certainly got a lot of big market catalysts and events that are going to cause quite a rattle over the next two to three weeks. And likewise, even with the calming down in the markets, you now have the vix at levels we haven't seen since 2020 suggesting options. markets are pricing in some more insane volatility.

Close ahead. Okay, moving on to the main entree this lovely evening: Madame Evfm At the time of shooting this video, she was trading at 1.27 cents and just came back from a successful break to a new cycle high past 154 to 157 and she is now cooling off. For full context, we started briefing on her in Ziptrader U back here on June 27th at roughly 60 cents because of her exposure to the Roe v Wade overturning trend and Evfm's perceived role as a winner of the Supreme Court ruling combined with some big fundamental catalysts and wins from the company itself outside of those happenings, but that also happened at the same time which all kind of just came together at once and snowballed. She ended up running up to 154 from our briefing price at about 60 cents which was a more than double and then she sold off and found support around 80 cents.

She then continued her overall upper direction again after rejecting it down hither and again succeeded at breaking out before selling off towards closed today but more on that later. Now the first thing to know about this company is she is running on excitement for her new Fexi birth control method. This is apparently the only hormone-free on-demand prescription birth control gel that is also very, very effective that you can use about an hour before you do the dirty deed. The idea is that this product doesn't have the same effects, risks, and overall hassle of taking a daily contraceptive pill and alternatives that use tons of hormones that could have other long-term side effects as well.

Now look folks, I get it. None of us here watching this video need this kind of product because we're all too busy getting screwed by the market and you don't need any birth control for that. But think about the applicable market of the many couples and the women in those couples that could use this. and in terms of history, Well, I think that markets really, really doubted the ability of something like this to work.

But the Fda approved Fexi back on May 26, 2020 for use. and then it was launched that fall and three weeks ago, it reaffirmed its effectiveness by showing that it prevented 99 of pregnancies and tests on 1200 women who used facsy over 24 000 acts of the dirty deed. These rates are pretty damn competitive with other forms of birth control. On the 28th, at the end of last month, Evfm announced an agreement with one of the largest pharmacy benefit managers in the U.s to expand access to Fexie.

Under this agreement, access to Fexi is significantly expanded from millions of women and provides a lot of growth opportunities and removes barriers to fill these sexy prescriptions. Now, this is even extra relevant right now because of the trend trade of Roe V Wade. The Supreme court ruling spurred a ton of spec traders into new next-gen contraceptive stocks, most of which would just end up going down dramatically after the spec capital has left. But right now the trend trade is still hot and people are speculating that in states where abortion is going to be more banned and more restricted as a result of this ruling, they're going to see more and more demand for companies that have Next Gen and easier to use contraceptive.

Now look at this quote from a recent press release quote. The U.s Department of Labor and Health Resources and Services Administration separately issued updated guidance in January 2022 that is intended to ensure women have access to all Fda approved contraceptives including Fexi at Zero Copay under the Affordable Care Act. So Evfm's excitement is basically hey, they have a new, effective, easy to use, hassle-free hormone-free contraceptive gel and it actually works. and the company is expanding access rapidly and it's increasingly going to be covered by insurers.

Meanwhile, while they're growing right now, it's going to be very, very difficult for other companies to compete with them in the future because they have pretty damn tight patents. and right now they're the first and only prescription grade gel for this purpose for the purpose of making sure that we never reach Elon Musk's goal of fixing our underpopulation problem. Now, in terms of how successful they are at getting this new product out there, well, Faxi prescriptions grew 69 in the fourth quarter of 2021, and net product sales in the fourth quarter of 2021 more than doubled from the prior quarter. They also said they are working on advancing quote multiple partnership discussions for the commercialization effectsy in international markets.

Now, in terms of valuation, it is sitting at about 52 million dollars in market cap in terms of what it brings in via product sales. it brought in about 4.2 million in sales, which is pretty damn bad considering that it's operating at a loss of about 33 million and that nets out to like 28.9 million. Although they are cutting operating losses quarter over quarter, it's still pretty damn bad. But of course, as you might have guessed, and if you're familiar with the channel, I'm covering this not as a fundamental play, but as a technical spec play and a catalyst play.

But it is worth mentioning that the fundamentals of this company are actually pretty damn bad. And so from a fundamental standpoint, it's a hell no from me. But in terms of a hype trade, we can talk now. As I was filming this video, Evfm had just come off a cycle of going and attempting a breakout to a new cycle high and making a new higher high a higher high from the previous level and an overall upper direction over our red Sma line.

At the same time, where you have all these clear catalysts suggests that we may have a longer wave of momentum. Here you go over to the lovely Ortex, or Text Seems to think that the short interest as a percentage of free float is at about 28, which isn't crazy. It's not the highest level we've seen in a stock, but it's a decent amount. We've been kind of spoiled with the short squeeze setups in terms of how high the percentage is, but usually something that's over like 15 20 is pretty aggressive in terms of a short and utilization of shares available to borrows.

at 100, it's becoming very, very difficult for short sellers to sell even more onto this market because in the stock, they're having a very, very hard time finding borrowers to dump onto it. and the shares on loan and free float on loan to be borrowed are not expanding, but decreasing week over week. And in terms of cost to borrow, it's at an average of 353 percent right now, which suggests a pretty significant handicapping of short sellers. Short selling facilities are pretty weak on this stock, which is making it very, very difficult for the stock to have much resistance when it's running.

Most of what's stopping the stock from really running is just people locking in profits. That said, it's hard for me to make a huge argument for this on a short squeeze basis alone, because it's just not that insane of a setup. and in this overall market, I mean, people want to sell out of stocks like this as fast as possible, so I can't really make a big argument for a short squeeze setup, necessarily. it's just a elevating factor if people do buy.

I think that if you want to make an argument for a type of squeeze, you'd have to think more gamma squeeze. If you look at the options expiring July 15th, which is next Friday, you have an insane insane amount of concentration of options at that 2.50 strike price, which is still like another 80 run from where we are currently. So think about what it means when you have all this concentration at a strike price of two dollars and fifty cents that will expire worthless. Unless Evfm gets to that point before then, which is again next Friday, they're betting that this is gonna break above 250.

if they are wrong, all of these options expire worthless right now. Of course, you could sell an option before it expires, but the point is that you're seeing a lot of concentration here. That's suggesting that options markets right now are pricing in a very high certainty of a much higher move and to some extent that has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The huge buying of these short-dated options is causing a bit of a gamma squeeze already.

It's also likely already helping drive shares up as market makers who are actually selling these options have to figure out how to hedge against actually executing on them and they do that by watch while usually buying the stock. And if you look at the put option chain, there's not much in terms of put option concentration, which suggests that market makers are hedging for all of these, and the possibility that these expire in the money by buying a relative amount of shares. And the more that Evfm maintains valuations that are above a dollar and look like they're going to go above two dollars and fifty cents, the more that they're going to have to hedge in order to protect themselves against that inevitability. This is a stock where you have 16 000 open interest in terms of contracts at strike price one dollar and 37 000 at strike price of 2.50 cents.

and this again was a stock that was trading at like 30 cents just a couple weeks ago. The fact that this moves so quickly has caused market makers to rush to hedge and has caused more option speculators to buy in, accelerating the trend that we just mentioned where market makers are forced to hedge at the same time or if you go back to the short selling market, well, short sellers have run out of facilities to really effectively short sell this and provide any reasonable resistance to stop this from skyrocketing super fast. My thought process though, in terms of practicality and where this is going next, well I would say see where the sell-off cycle takes the stock to. If it can bounce from 110 to 120 like a springboard tomorrow or early next week, I wouldn't be surprised to see another hurrah to a new cycle high by Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday of next week.

I think there's a strong possibility that excitement for this trend trade and excitement for the possibility of getting to breaking those crucial levels at 250 for the strike price that has all those options that are going to be expiring at the end of next week and the excitement for actually holding above a dollar and causing all those to expire in the money is going to cause enough to cause people to actually anticipate and force a gamma squeeze to happen. but at the end of the day I love to cover spec plays and technical plays and overall short term hype. but when you really get down to it, they all end up poorly. They all go down like rabid dogs at the end of the day.

So the best time to play it if you're going to play it for the long side is specifically to play it when it's showing proof of concept that it can run on a clear catalyst on a clear setup and then control your damn risk and get out as fast as possible. When you get that profit, you need to go in with a clear entry and exit plan. With these types of stocks, it's like musical chairs. It can be fun to dance around and run around a circle with a bunch of chairs while the music's going, but you want to make sure when the music stops you've sold out of your position.

We have a ton of content on the channel in our trading tutorials playlist that can help you learn how to manage risk a lot better. Of course we also have Zip Trader U which is 50 off coupon code America 50 expires tomorrow. But the point is, if you are going to mess with high risk squeeze momentum style plays especially in this market, you cannot have a faint heart and you must want that adrenaline rush. And then most importantly, you must promise yourself to have actual risk management.

Sure, they can be a lot of fun if you can catch the run, but you're just going to end up giving up the run when it inevitably goes back down. How many stocks have we talked about on this channel where you had maybe three four days of huge runs and then they just got obliterated. Pretty much any catalyst play that we've ever talked about. Any catalyst play that anybody has talked about, so make sure that you keep that in mind at the end of the day when you're talking about a trade, it's a trade.

not a marriage position with Evfm I don't have a position in it. There's no incentive for me to say anything good or bad. I'm just giving you my perspective. Hopefully that can better inform your opinion.

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