Folks this morning the consumer was officially pronounced dead, cause of death, uncontrollable inflation. Doctors said the illness was transitory. then they said it was in remission. Well now it's too late and the patient is dead.

In this video, we are going to break down exactly what happened with the inflation report the CPI that came out today, What you need to know about it and what this means for what the FED is going to do moving forward and how much the FED is going to have to bludge in the stock market in order to get this new heightened inflation wave down what are fed. Futures showing is going to happen. At the November 2nd meeting, we will discuss all of this and I will put the time stamps down below and today's video is brought to you by zip Trader you our step-by-step lessons or private chat, our daily morning briefings, full price Target list and all other trading resources offered within the program. Folks, it is more critical than ever to have a solid foundation of risk management, practical strategies, real entries and exit points, and of course practical tips on how to really conduct yourself in this kind of Market environment and that is what we provide with the program as well as actual morning briefings that come out 30 minutes prior to Market open where we talk about where all the biggest catalysts lie, the biggest opportunities, and really the biggest battlefields.

I Will go ahead and put the link to our program down below and you will get 40 off if you use coupon code flash 40 before checkout and that is a one-time fee for Lifetime access. Our Flash 40 sale is a flash sale and it will be ending shortly a week from tomorrow on Friday the 21st, so make sure to take advantage before that expires. So this morning when I woke up, the Futures were green very green Granny Mcgreeny. the British pound had bounced back and they stabilized their debt on reports of more U-turning on stimulation measures which boosted confidence in their financial system and American equities.

We're pretty happy for a moment to see some stabilization in the international economy, especially after reaching new loans. But then the CP PR report came out and Wham New Year to date low immediately. And then there was a pretty screwed up reason that stocks actually started coming back towards the end of the day or at least towards when I started filming this video and we'll cover that in a few minutes. But folks this morning CPR report made one thing loud and clear and that was that the Phds the Highly Educated Phds that work at Wall Street that work at the FED that work in government Well, they have no idea what they are talking about.

They are completely wrong. They have been wrong for the last two years and they continue to be wrong. Inflation once again is heading Upward at a pace four times higher, four times higher than the previous reporting period. Now up point: four percent month over month Charlie Are you stupid? The FED said many times in the past that we shouldn't care about all item inflation because that includes energy and food which are two volatile.

So you should only be focusing on core inflation. Charlie That is where the problems lie. If there's an issue there, that's how you know there's an issue, you're focusing on the wrong inflation. Well, guess what folks, core inflation is up another 0.6 month over month.

Point Six: The six point six percent, you're over your rise. In course, Epi is the most the must since 1982. Folks, in my opinion, this inflation report guarantees the collapse of human civilization and suggests very very clearly that we do not deserve as humans to be on top of the food chain anymore. Even Dolphins Even dolphins are smart enough to know that we can't have inflation numbers this high.

Oh, Charlie Are you trying to say that dolphins are smarter than humans? Yes, Yes. I am. And that's a fact. They don't have currencies that inflate at this rate.

In all seriousness, this report screams screams that the FED is not making any any sizable impact on this inflation war. In fact, inflation is gaining ground on it, and there are virtually no improvements or progress to any of the main line items that American consumers depend on. Food Up point: 0.8 month over month. Again, food at home up 0.7 month over month.

Again, food away from home up 0.9 month over month again Energy Services up 1.1 percent Utilities getting more expensive, new vehicles up 0.7 and of course, interest rates on new vehicle loans have skyrocketed as we know, so it's like even with these used cars coming down, consumers still have to pay significantly more. In reality, when you factor in the higher car payments, shelter costs up 0.7 Transportation services up 1.9 Medical Care Services up one percent So when you starve and have to go to the hospital because food is too expensive, well guess what, You go to the hospital and you can't afford the medical care. Fantastic. And then you say oh, Charlie but hey, energy is down, it's cooled down, everything is just berries and Roses down 2.1 percent Gasoline down 4.7 percent.

So Fuel and such is down. Yes, but this is for September Remember what OPEC announced at the start of October a massive cut in production which boosted prices as you can see hither and Mark my words, they will cut production even more as demand looks to be dampered for oil moving forward. Because they don't want prices to go down, they want prices above 90 if possible Above 100. So Anybody who's saying oh yeah, OPEC is fine.

They're going to be fine if oil goes down to 60 or 50 or 40. No, they will cut production again and again and again until they get their price. I Think that they're going to have a really hard road ahead of them based on how deep this recession is going to be. But for the foreseeable future, unless the West steps up and really increases production, well, you should still continue to see oil prices and energy Alternatives be very, very highly priced.

and because of all this Fed Futures are now showing a 95 percent chance of a 75 basis point hike in the coming November 2nd meeting which is just like two weeks away. And now for the first time, the 100 basis point possibility is on the probability table at just under five percent and counting. But what's really freaky is you look out a few more meetings At the 22nd of March 2023 meeting, Markets are now five times, five times, times more convinced than they were yesterday at the possibility of a Target rate of 500 to 525 basis points at that meeting. Which means what well markets are now thinking that the terminal rate the highest rate we are to go in this cycle is going to be much higher than they thought it was going to be yesterday and that the FED indicated that it was going to be at 4.6 percent.

So before today, people are thinking okay, the FED suggests that they're going to go up to 4.6 percent. That is the Fed consensus. Fine, Now they're saying actually, that's not going to be the terminal rate, It's going to be above five percent. It's going to be above 500 basis points, and we have a growing number of people expecting the terminal rate to be at 525 550 and we are just another hot inflation report or two away from getting into the 600s Markets are really concerned with three things when it comes to the FED.

Number one, how fast the FED is going to raise rates and the corresponding risks that creates for the economy, Number two, how high aka the terminal rate that the FED is going to reach before the whole cycle is over, and number three: how long we're going to stay in an overall restrictive range with the overall higher rates. All three of these things today are looking worse. And guess what? When hot inflation reports come out, people start asking that dirty question on real rates. What are the real rates? If The Fed goes and they raise rates to six percent and inflation is at eight percent and it starts going up again.

which is going up right now. Then guess what happens? People start thinking Hmm The real rate is negative, which means the FED actually in effect is dovish. They're behind the curve on this. So in that sense, the FED once again has proven itself behind the curve.

and its monetary medicine, which is extremely extremely bad tasting. Well, guess what? It's still not bad tasting enough because inflation continues to go up, not down. Which means what? Well it means, the likelihood of a rug pull at the FED is that much more likely. is that much more guaranteed? And I think you're going to see a big Rock pull before the end of the year? President Biden came out and he made a statement today saying This report shows progress quote.

Today's report shows some progress in the fight against higher prices, even as we have more work to do. Inflation over the last three months has averaged two percent at an annualized rate that's down from 11 in the prior quarter. This is a very fascinating way to frame it if you look at the data. Almost no important category aside from energies.

Some select energy categories saw progress in September. It's gotten worse everywhere. So when he says progress I'm not sure what he's talking about. But according to Biden, all that matters is the quarter over quarter, not the overall direction you are heading in, right? But the problem is the quarterly numbers.

If they were relevant, the FED would be using them for the Target rate, not the yearly numbers. Based on Biden's logic that, oh, on a quarterly basis, we've hit two percent. then the FED would have already hit their target rate. Yet, the FED is not saying they hit their target rate far from now.

Let's be real. If we were heading down in most categories into Q4 and progress was seen in at least half half the categories, I'd be like, okay, well, maybe the President has a bit of a point there, but that's just not the case. You can't pick and choose arbitrary time periods and say oh, we're successful because on a quarterly or a bi-quarterly basis or a half moon basis, inflation is down. You can't just pick and choose whichever time scale you want to make your numbers look better.

Quite frankly, all this rhetoric and different Framing and marketing of this inflation report aside, What I will say is that if you look at the report, you actually look at the trajectory that it's portraying. It's portraying inflation to go up again. It's portraying that this past month we saw prices start Rising again at the same time when some of the hottest Fed rate hikes have already been placed. Keep in mind folks, this is the CPI which a lot of people accuse of being the CP lie and accused of underreporting data.

They say the CPI inflation shows that you're dealing with a Kevin Hart whereas the real inflation is actually like a shack and I don't know about you. But if Jerome Powell was fighting one of these two, I would want to know the truth of which one it is because that would change who I would bet on winning. Actually, no. in both cases, Jerome Powell would still probably lose.

And there's actually some data on this from Shadowstats.com I Know I Pulled this up every month, but it shows what the CPI would say if we use the same CPI we used in the 1980s. Before we improved it, the CPI of 1980 would show inflation at around 16 percent year over year as of this latest September report, whereas the one we got only showed about half that at 8.2 percent. Talk about Improvement right? In the decades after 1980, the CPI was adjusted over and over again and gotten more and more detached from the 1980 CPI. They used Concepts like substitution and Alternatives and fancy calculation to kind of curve all of the different data sets and make it look like a lot of the pricing pressures that actual items are experiencing aren't really passing on to Consumers because they could just choose something else or they have some other reason in their lifestyle that that doesn't hurt them as much as it would if it was just going up and there was no other alternate.

When people see the CPI they think, oh, okay, this is how much prices have gone up month over month, year over year or as Biden says, quarter over quarter, but they don't think about how this is calculated, They think, oh, if it was a dollar last year and it's two dollars this year, it's up 100. But in reality there's a lot more behind the math and it curves the numbers quite a bit. but I think the Divergence between these two lines speak for themselves and it has a huge impact on how the public feels about inflation. I Mean, imagine how the public would react if inflation was posted to be at 16 instead of eight percent, it would be a whole other level of outrage.

Now in terms of the market, it's still pretty early. but as I was filming this video, we started seeing markets bounce back some. and I think you have this: Dynamic where markets are like, well, okay, we just hit a new record low and we now have a two-week reprieve. With No Big Data Releases or events yes, earnings are starting.

but in terms of inflation, in terms of the FED pretty quiet for the next two weeks. Well, that was my first gut reaction at the same time. Another reason that we could be seeing a rally is actually a pretty sick reason and not in the oh sick, that's cool kind of way. but in the sick, that's terrible kind of way.

Like I was saying yesterday, we already knew that businesses were paying more for goods and services at the wholesale level because the PPI told us that. But the question was, are those businesses still able to pass those costs onto consumers? or were they simply eating it in their profit margins? And we said yesterday that if the CPI does come out hot today, then that means that businesses, at least for the time being, have for another month, been able to pass on those increased pricing pressures to Consumers They are eating it up instead of the businesses. Now we know the consumers are paying that with very, very very low savings and record credit card debt and other loan debt. But markets are looking at this and they're thinking hey, wait a second.

This last report shows that consumers are taking the brunt of the pain. which means maybe earnings are a little bit better and earnings are coming out in the next few weeks. So I could see the argument where if you're a Speculator and you're like oh, okay, I'm gonna buy right now because we just hit a new record low. There's no big inflation reports coming for the next two weeks, no big economic reports really coming for the next two weeks.

the FED isn't going to have another meeting until November 2nd, and at the same time, we're starting earnings season. And guess what? This latest CPR report shows that businesses they have a little bit more pricing power than we thought. they were able to pass on the cost to Consumers A little bit better than we had expected. so that means time for a little bit of a bear Market rally which of course then will serve as great exit liquidity later on.

but of course in the present I think that's the current sentiment. Anyways, let us know what you think down below and have a great rest of your day. Make sure to subscribe if you want to follow more videos like this where we do in-depth breakdowns of the current market condition. If you want to get your up to 15 free stocks with MooMoo I will put a link to that below as well.

And of course make sure to take advantage of that zip Trader you flash 40 sale have a good one folks and I will see you in the next video.