Okay folks, I want to give a violent update on today's market. and then I want to talk about one 16 stock that's going quite crazy right now. In many ways, it mirrors that dwack play that really ran huge last year, and we need to talk violently about why it's running, if there's any actual value to it, and my projections moving forward. But first, a quick plug from our sponsor, Public.com Ziptrader Public.com is an investing app where you can buy stocks, etfs, and crypto with any amount of money.

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Overall, fairly flat. We went from this period of insane widespread fear and dysphoria to now this increasingly back and forth overall slowdown, and the Vix has registered that change as well. People often assume that it's either really, really fast up or really really fast down, but a lot of the time the market just kind of goes back and forth. Don't get me wrong, this is a market that will shake and will shake violently when it's given a reason to whether that's from the fed, whether that's inflationary data, whether that's earnings, but without imminent reason 2 It likes to wait and see, and that's what we're seeing more and more.

This week, we do have that Cpi report coming out on Thursday, so very quickly here we're going to have new reasons for it to shake. and I don't know, folks. I'm smiling, but I don't think it's going to be very good. but we'll see.

Hey, maybe I'm wrong. You combine that again with the strong jobs growth from January and fears over rising salaries, and you've got a perfect storm. One of the spiraling issues of inflation that people are starting to talk about more and more is this issue with salary and wage increases. See, in 2021, people did get a raise, but it didn't outpace inflation by most metrics.

But now people are starting to realize that their wages didn't outpace inflation. They're starting to realize this year that hey, we got kind of robbed. So now because of rising costs, employees are demanding higher and higher wages, which makes people assume that companies are going to go and pass those increases onto consumers, which is certainly a reasonable logic. So the more wages go up, the more consumers have to pay for goods and services.

The more consumers have to pay for goods and services, The more wages are demanded to go up. And that's the spiral of out of control inflation. And that's what people are worried about right now. But if you're on the boat that throughout this year, you're going to start seeing slower and slower economic data.

This creates a completely different picture. You see. the problem right now is that consumer demand is slowing down, and the reason it's slowing down is because pricing pressures are going up. But if wages and salaries overall start going up, what does that mean? Well, wages and salaries are a lot more sticky.

Once you give an employee a raise, it's very, very difficult to lower that down without letting them go or laying them off. But when it comes to the cost of products and services, those things aren't sticky. You can lower that quite a bit and eat into your profit margin if you need to move product. Just like you can raise that very, very quickly if demand is increasing and then re-lower it if demand decreases.

so in a slowing down economic condition. If that does happen throughout the later part of this year, all of a sudden, you have this shift of purchasing power back into employees' hands and workers hands overall. At the same time where you have low consumer demand, which is making it difficult to actually raise prices to pass them on to consumers. Now, this is a terrible thing in terms of profit margin for companies, and this is why I've said a lot of the value stocks and a lot of the companies that are pricing in a perfect couple of quarters ahead are making a big big mistake.

but from an inflationary spiral standpoint, I don't know that that's really the big issue here. If you're already seeing a drop in sales before you raise prices, it doesn't make any logical sense to raise prices more. You can only raise prices into an economy that will support that by buying your products at those higher prices. And the question really comes down to are people willing and able to do that and I think the answer is increasingly no.

Even if you give them raises, I still think the answer is going to be known for quite some time. I think that you're going to go through this period of about two or three quarters where people are not going to want to spend a lot of money because they're still dealing with the fact that their purchasing power is gone. So even when you try to replenish that with rising wages, it's gonna take some time to really get that consumer fervor back. And in the meantime, companies may have to deal with crunched profit margins, having to pay workers more while having to charge less.

Next crypto market looking pretty nice today. All the big dogs, your bitcoin, your Eth, your cardano, your Xrp, your solana up nicely very nicely. At some points today, Sheba was up 40 something percent feels very 20 21. Ask? The retail armies that we saw last year are still around, they're just resting and getting ready to pounce at the right moment, and days like this really remind you of that.

But anyways, the stock of the Hour is Cfvi, Cfv. I ran today because it's the S-pac that's going to be taking Rumble public. And Rumble got a ton of attention after its Ceo offered a 100 million dollar contract for Joe Rogan, who is of course currently on Spotify. Now, I don't know what your opinion is on this Rogan situation and I'm not going to go too much into it.

All I will say is it seems these days people have no room for public figures to mess up at all before their critics say they need to be wiped off the face of the earth. My personal belief is that we should all aim to be very respectful of one another, but we should also be forgiving if somebody makes a mistake which is inevitable and is genuinely sorry about it. And even if you think a mistake is irredeemable, I don't think the answer is censorship. You could always self-censor yourself from someone you disagree with.

But the problem comes in when you want to censor things that other people can see. That's when it gets really messy. But from a business perspective, I gotta say, it's pretty useful to trace trends. and when you see this cultural war play out, it creates demand for platforms that don't really give in to the cultural war, or at least can present themselves as not giving in to the cultural war, which is why Cfvi is popping because it's margin with Rumble, which alleges to do that themselves.

Let's talk about whether there's real value behind this play. Rumble sits at 36 million monthly active user, 7.9 billion minutes watch per month. Obviously, you compare that to Youtube's 2 billion monthly active users. It's a drop in the damn bucket.

But when you're valuing an early stage company, you're looking at growth rates right Because growth rates are the driver of performance, and you look at their trajectory of content creation and creator adoption which drives user growth. And since Q2 of 2020, both creator adoption and exclusive uploads have been increasing dramatically. Creator adoption is up 65.3 times, whereas exclusive daily uploads are doubled. Obviously, it's easy for people who upload on Youtube to also go and upload on Rumble, and these numbers show that a lot of people have interest in doing so, but you also get a sizable increase in people uploading exclusively to Rumble, which is very, very interesting and actually shows that they do see a lot of value there.

They have an interesting data set where they compare their growth to Tick Tock From January 2018 to just about the end of 2018, Tick Tock went from 11 million users to 23 million, whereas in a year time span, Rumble went from 1 million to 23 million users. Which Rumbles using to say, if you compare us to Tick Tock on the early stage, we're growing a lot faster. If we follow the same trajectory, even at a slowing growth base, we could be a rapid adoption in a few short years, and this trend has actually continued into January. They said from December 2021 to January 2022, the company saw 19 growth on monthly active users, 27 growth on minutes watched, and 14 growth on hours of uploaded video per day.

Keep in mind that we're kind of in a bear market for user growth and user engagement. People in the Pandemic dramatically increase their engagement and sign ups and usage of all these platforms, but then, we've kind of been on the slow bleed pathway since basically the end of 2020.. For Rumble to be reporting these numbers, these are some of the best numbers from any sizeable social media platform out there. To be completely honest with you, if I didn't see these numbers, I would not have made this video.

I saw this and I'm like, okay, we can't ignore it. This is insane. These are month over month numbers they said On the heels of the decline in U.s and Canadian users at Facebook, and with Rumble's impressive January growth, it's clear that we are witnessing a major shift on the internet. Users are sending a clear message that platforms supporting the free and Open Internet will be the future, and honestly, there's certainly a part of marketing to this right.

They're marketing themselves as this free and open internet source, but the point is, as long as they can market themselves as the solution to a lot of this frustration that people are seeing on other platforms where platforms are going and taking people off and there's a bunch of drama and so on and so forth, we don't need to get into that. Well, they'll be seen as a safe haven from that. and if they can make big text losses their game, that's a big big deal, especially considering how small this company is. If Facebook loses one percent of their members, that's a drop in the bucket for Facebook.

But for Rumble, that's a dramatic dramatic scaling up of value. So it might be. Rumble doesn't even have to be a big platform for it to add a lot of value over the long run. But does that mean you should buy Cfvi? Well, to be honest, my take with S-pac mergers and if you follow me early in 2021, you know this is my take.

My take is that you should not invest for the long run in an S-pac before it actually merges. There's just too much information that you don't know yet. the details aren't finalized. and post actual merger, the hype dies off just like a newly minted ipo, and you tend to get a much better price if you just wait it out for like two or three weeks.

So in terms of investing in this right now for the long run, I say it's a no wait until the deal is finalized. We get actual numbers, we see some more reports, and we see exactly what's going on here and the price settles down right now. The value with the stock is simply the same value that you saw with Dwack Trading Catalysts and enjoying that momentum, understanding that it's going to pump and dump on many different catalysts as time goes on. But if you do want my long-term outlook post merger, I think that this may be a good winner.

The Creator video streaming niche is insane. I retweeted this tweet this morning that showed Youtube's Q4 revenue was 8.6 billion and Netflix's Q4 revenue was 7.7 billion whereas the Youtube content budget was zero dollars and the Netflix content budget was 14 billion dollars. You think about all the effort that Netflix puts in to get paying subscribers and then to create content to attract more subscribers and keep their current ones and risk content that may never actually be popular. Then you think about Youtube, who's actually one of the most popular websites in the world, who doesn't try it all to get users and also doesn't have to worry about investing and creating content, and they're still beating them on revenue.

But of course, one of the problems with this tweet, if you haven't caught it already, is that Well, Youtube does pay out content creators as an incentive to actually have good content created on the platform, and I ran the numbers on this. Youtube is expected to pay out 16 billion a year to creators, which is about 4 billion a quarter, Which still, when looking at it side by side, is a huge difference between what Netflix has to risk and invest and what Youtube has to risk and invest. Youtube's basically not risking anything. They only have to pay out creators if creators make some money.

It's really a fantastic business model, and if rumble can create something that's even a fifth is good, or even a tenth is good, that's a insane business, especially considering that it's barely developed right now. So anyways, my take is at the very least, the culture wars out there will create this dynamic where you get free advertisement and free catalyst pumps for this S Pack for the near to medium future and then over the long run. If they do a good job of capturing that free advertising and rolling increase in demand, they may actually build a very, very good platform again. Right now in the early stage, I would look at it as a short-term trade for trading the euphoria and dysphoria cycles, but down the road we may change our minds on that.

We'll see what their growth numbers look like and what the final S-pac deal is, and perhaps we'd be even willing to help. Let me know below, If you'd like us to upload on rumble, we'd definitely be open to doing that. Anyways, folks that caps off this video: thank you Public.com Ziptrader for sponsoring this video. Make sure to get your free stock down below if you are looking to learn how to trade.

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