Okay folks, so we've got a lot to discuss. Number one: The Trka play made a new cycle high this morning to 99 Cents and then Dove slightly after open and continued a massive, massive dive into the after hours. We've been expecting a take profit cycle for quite some time, but this is a take profit cycle from hell. What happened and what should you know on the odds of a bouncy bounce? Number two: Jerome take your wife and take your house Powell threatens higher rates and has a testy exchange with Senator Elizabeth Warren on whether he should be prioritizing inflation or employment.

Meanwhile, treasury yields just popped up to seven percent for the first time since 2007 and markets took a dumpy dumpito. Let's go ahead and start with Troika. So for context: Troika is a short squeeze candidate that we've been covering since Sunday the 26th. It's gone on a hero's journey from 31 cents to 99 cents in that time, which is more than a 3X obviously incredible run.

shout out to folks who played it, but this morning's new cycle high was very, very bitter. Sweet indeed. because well, right after a dove like a flamingo in a firehouse. What drove this down? Well, there's a few factors, but a big one was the broader Market which dove with Powell's conference today and that sucked Capital out of nearly everywhere and it spurred a lot of broader Capital Flight on Trka activated a lot of stop losses and allowed short sellers some room to close at better prices.

We spoke yesterday about how one of the biggest risks for Trka was the fact that its momentum was very, very untested. It hadn't had many take profit cycles and the little shallow ones it had had. Well, they got bought up so so fast that it really never had the ability to tell markets that yeah, if it sells off, we can pick it up again. Untested Momentum is extra prone to huge Capital flight after any dip.

At some points before recovery attempts, the stock had fallen around 35 percent on the day 50 from pre-market highs and the depth of the Fall looks like it triggered a ton of stop losses. Along the way you had the original drop and then boom. The stop losses likely started activating like crazy probably around 80 or or 70 cents and then that accelerated the move downward. and then after activating all of those stop losses pushing them to sell out, blowing through all crucial levels of support, you then had a complete a complete flight of capital in the after hours where tons and tons of capital lost confidence in the momentum and it brought the stock to its knees.

My guess is the after hours move had to be some big whale or whale selling creating a effective rug pull. They were just waiting for their chance for the price to steady out and when it did into close, they sold a ton. Complete complete disaster. On top of that, it also came out in the after hours that Trk filed to dilute as Roger James Hamilton pointed out what I Hate is Trka today posting PR of record earnings and behind the scenes quietly filing a 10K showing massive massive dilution to 344 million shares.

Many investors lost a huge amount because of it. so a couple weeks ago, Trka goes and withdraws withdraws one of their dilutive requests with the SEC signaling hey, we're not looking to dilute at this time and here they go filing to Dilute more. This is another example of a company going and helping the short sellers that it should be fighting against. But today was such a disaster and there's actually a lot more that happened behind the scenes in my opinion, before this dilution announcement even took place.

If Satan himself ran the stock market I Expect this is what every stock would look like every single day. just Satan Smash constant red candles of death, you pay for your lifelong sins and your fornication. with basically stocks dumping day after day after day and endless fed tightening I Could already picture your own palette down there in hell with us and he's just like yep, rates are going up again. This is the 5 millionth time that rates are going up.

Guess what? they're going to go up more after that and they're going to go up more after that and then you're just sitting there in hell and you're like, you know I Really wish I didn't fornicate. It's real real hot down here and I'm losing lots and lots of money. But not surprisingly. of course the shorts figured out how to use this to their advantage.

Short interest has fallen another 10 or so on the day according to the lovely or text. Now one thing to keep in mind is that a lot of times when you see a dumpy tumpito, well a lot of shorts will go and they'll execute their buy orders to cover their short positions on the dark pools right the off exchanges. That way, when they're going and submitting a big order, they can get it all done at once without really spiking the price and then it only really gets factored into the price a few days or a few weeks later. Now that's a very, very smart thing to do if this is selling off really, really aggressively because you want to get the best price possible and you don't want to spike it back up.

In fact, if you go and you Google Fintel's off exchange short volume ratio for the stock, it's at about 52 percent, so about half about half of the short volume. The buy and the selling on this stock is not even listed into the price right? It's not even done on the on Exchange where people can see it. So honestly, any buying pressure of it happened during this downtrend probably didn't really show in the price, but still at the end of the day, there's significantly less shorts today than there were yesterday, but backing up a bit whenever you see a heavily shorted stock that just barely just barely misses a crucial breakout point in this case, one dollar, you should really start questioning if something else is going on here. One dollar for the stock is a key psychological level where once it passes that, it becomes a new support and you get a new wave of momentum from folks fomoing in.

And also importantly, it's a key level to hit if you want to be in compliance with the Nasdaq's one dollar listing requirement. it's heavily in the Stock's interest to make sure that it's above a dollar so that it can continue to be listed on the NASDAQ and it doesn't go onto the OTC markets. One Dollar is an area where all of a sudden this company has a lot more opportunities to raise Capital. It has a lot more opportunities to survive the NASDAQ exchange.

It has a lot more opportunities to attract more attention, but just the scent. Just a little measly scent. A little pansy pansy scent. Before it could hit a dollar boom.

all of a sudden, you get all the selling pressure. If it had broken into the dollar range this morning, the stock would have been in a whole different Paradigm. But no, no no no no. It managed to sell off just before that happened and that of course allowed a lot of short sellers to get out at below a buck.

Now again, yes, the broader market, like we said earlier, sold off and sucked Capital out of everywhere today, but there was a large time Divergence between when that happened and when Trka peaked, Trka peaked at 632 PST once sent before hitting that crucial resistance level at a dollar and then the first Candlestick of death was a minute later at 6 33. whereas the broader Market peaked at 6.49 then you got your first Candlestick of death at seven. So in other words, there were about 27 minutes where Trka's price was getting pushed down away from that one dollar breaking point before the market even started with its first overall death candle and overall sell-off That took the whole stock market down the rest of the day, Which means something else was pushing Troika down well before the rest of the sell-off had happened. People can speculate on different strategic ways that short sellers may or may not have manipulated.

This obviously a common way that you might see in some places is all of a sudden a short seller that has access to more borrows will go and dump a ton more shares short right at open to stop an uptrend in a breakout. Then the rest of the market sees all those sell orders and they panic and they sell out in this stock goes down and then that short seller will go and they'll cover all that short position on the off exchanges. So all of a sudden they're covering that short position they just took and the other short position they already had at a profit. So that's a way that you could potentially weaponize the on and off exchanges.

Obviously, we as peasant retail Traders can't do that right because we're just dogs woof. but they the holy of holies. They can do it up there in the hedge fund world. but at the same time, you know I don't want to cry Manipulation: every single time a stock doesn't do what I wanted to do.

It could have just been momentum taking a rest, taking a little bit of a breather, right? It could have been some people taking profits off the table. Who knows. But the thing is, the only thing that we really know for sure here is that once it had a solid chance of actually hitting one dollar, which is really the most exciting point for the stock. Well, all of a sudden the stock magically found a big wave of sellers making sure that that did not happen.

So again, you could say well, maybe it's people taking profit before you get a massive breakout. Or you could say there's manipulation or it's just whatever it is. But at the end of the day, what we know is there's a massive massive wall of sellers that formed right before a dollar and then all of a sudden the price proceeded to go down about 50 plus percent to lows on the day and then another 45 Plus in the after hours. Maybe a quinky dink I Don't know you'd be the judge and we'll get right back to work after a word from today's sponsor.

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Now, the other angle to cover here is they reported earnings in the pre-market and the earnings were actually pretty damn solid. Solid Solito: They have a little bit of a weird way of reporting this by six-month interval, but in any case, they reported that the six month transition period highlights include: successive record revenue of approximately 187.9 million Revenue increase of a hundred or one thousand one hundred twenty five percent over the comparative prior year period adjusted ebitda of approximately 5 million bucks continued strong Revenue growth in new revenue streams, growing demand for performance solutions within Home Improvement Residential Services legal and Professional Services sectors successful completion of restructuring of operations and cost to optimizations following the acquisition of Converge. Now, keep in mind most of these metrics actually stem from the convert to deal, specifically the marketing company they bought last year. There's a big Improvement year over year because the year before that, they are basically just a Shale company with some money.

and now and now they're a parent company of a real marketing business. So the Euro over a year in the six month over six month comps are gonna look really, really good, right? But still, this is evidence that there is actually a real business here, right? They're reporting good numbers. pretty big growth. There is some real value with this company for trading purposes.

The value doesn't matter that much, but it's just worth mentioning because the short seller narrative is, hey, this is worth zero. Well, okay, but look at all these numbers. they're growing. just a general.

If you just look at this, generally from a surface level, it's hard to be worth zero if you're bringing in tons and tons of dough. Anyways, moving forward, is the play dead or is there still an opportunity for a higher high? Well, I believe the game is still on, but again, because of the dilute of filing, the case is substantially weaker now, and the company essentially did do a final rug pull, so it's hard to argue for them anymore at this point. Honestly, pretty pissed off about that. Although, pay very close attention it does say, applicable only to issuers involved in bankruptcy proceedings during the preceding five years, so you may have had a little bit of an overreaction here.

But if you want to hear my theoretical breakdown on this setup and what you could see here, it is in totality. We originally found it, find some report and some buyers at 43 cents that pushed it back into the high 50s and into the 60s. That was pretty solid and it declared some pretty decent bottoming around. There looked pretty solid and then all of a sudden in the after hours it just blew through that bottom.

So what I'm going to say right now and it's in free fall as I film this video. But what I'm gonna say right now is watch to see where this dips in the after hours. Watch to see where it Bottoms in the pre-market or towards Market Open tomorrow and hey, I would say probably within the next 24 to 48 hours after that. if you see a bottom and it continues to hold that I don't see any reason why you wouldn't see another bump upward.

Why? Why? Because a lot of shorts that did want to cover are probably still going to want to cover, you're not going to be able to find enough shares to cover everything on the off exchange and a lot of the momentum dip buyers will be more willing to buy it if you start seeing a little bit of a proof of concept over that bottom. So in terms of a strategy on re-entry, if you do want to mess with this again, well, A Good rule of thumb is if you want to play the dip, if you want to buy a momentum, play on a dip. Then again and you've got to make sure that it's recovering past previous failed attempts for example, and I don't know where the stock is going to be trading at when you watch this video. it's in free fall as I film this.

But for example, once you've gotten yourself into a situation where this has double bottomed again, it's been bouncing off a clear bottom for several periods, probably during Market Open tomorrow at the bare minimum because in the pre-market and after hours, the liquidity is too low to really get a clear picture on what's happening. But still, if you're in a situation where the bottom is just very, very concrete, it keeps bouncing off a general vicinity. It's trading within a small little range of a channel, and then all of a sudden breaks up above that channel. Well, all of a sudden you got your proof of concept.

I Think probably if that's going to happen, it's going to happen either tomorrow or the next day. Probably not. probably not. Friday Maybe last hurray Chance would be Monday or Tuesday of the week after, but we'll see what happens.

Hey Look, it's been a very, very fun play. It's stop. Lost a lot of people out today unfortunately, but from going from 31 cents to 99, that's pretty damn good. I Still think there's a good shot at 127 my opinion if the momentum comes back within the next couple couple of days.

If it comes back early next week, I Think it could easily get back there because of the insane short interest setup, but hey, you know what? It was a good play. The market is shitty. It is what it is. Okay, moving on, let's talk pal pal.

So to sum up the latest on the Pow Pow, his rhetoric has escalated to the hawkish side quite a bit. And while markets were expecting rates to be raised by 25 basis points at the March meeting in a few weeks, well now markets are expecting a 50 basis point hike. and it's all summed up in this one line here. The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely going to be higher than previously anticipated.

He's telling markets, look, hey, inflation is hotter than anticipated, so we have to raise rates more than anticipated. The problem? Well, Market Started this year rallying on the fever dream that perhaps Powell could tame inflation without running the economy off. The literal: Cliff Unfortunately, that looks like less and less of the reality the more he has to raise these rates now. Senator Elizabeth Warren Once again questioned the Mr Pow Pow on whether he cares about the many people that will lose their jobs as a result of the tightening.

And here's a clip that I want you to watch on the exchange. It got pretty testy The Exchange Where they actually talk about this so search directly to the 2mm hard-working people who have decent jobs today who you're planning to get fired over the next year. What would you say to them? How would you explain your view that they need to lose their jobs I Would explain to people more broadly that that inflation is extremely high and it's hurting the working people of this country badly. All of them, not just two million of them, but all of them are suffering under high inflation and we are taking the only measures we have to bring inflation down and putting two million people out of work is just part of the cost and they just have to bear it well.

they will. Will working people be better off if we just walk away from our jobs and and inflation remains five six percent. Let me ask you about what happens if you do this: Since the end of: World War II there have been 12 times in which the unemployment rate has increased by one percentage Point within one year. Exactly what you're aiming to do right now.

How many of those times did the U.S Economy avoid falling into a recession? You know it's it's not as black and white as it varies. Written a book on this and there's been 12 times that we've seen Point increase unemployment rate in a year. That's exactly what your Fed report has put out as the projection and the plan based on how you're going to keep raising these interest rates. How many times did the economy fail to fall into a recession after doing that out of 12 times I Think the number is zero I think the number is zero.

That's exactly right. So a few takeaways here: Warren is saying millions of working people will lose their jobs in the next year as a direct result of Powell's policies and Powell is saying hey, well, that's better than having the entire country struggling with higher inflation I'd rather have a couple million people lose their job than 300 400 million plus people struggle with insanely High inflation And then she asks, okay, but how many times in history has the FED done what it's doing now and not triggered a recession to which he answers zero. This is a double whammy exchange where you have Powell acknowledging that they are willing to make unemployment Skyrocket to Tamper inflation and at the same time acknowledging that historically this always results in a recession a recessionista. Which means the FED just signaled to markets what signal? Hey, you know that narrative you sold off on back in 2022? Well, it's back.

We are are going to tighten you into the damn ground. Now It's important to keep in mind that we've got three more dates left for important updates on this narrative and whether it's going to continue on this pathway. You have the payrolls report on the 10th, which is this week you have the CPI on the 14th and then Fomc meeting on the 22nd. The Big Daddy of the meetings where Mr Big Daddy himself will be talking and will be actually prescribing the new rate hikes and such on and so forth.

Now, if you want markets to be happy and not worry about a Libra spiral, you probably want payrolls to look weak when it comes out, but unfortunately, they seem to always figure out a way to curve those payroll reports to look a little bit better than they should. so we'll see what happens. anyways. That capped off today's video.

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