Okay folks, so I want to close out this week with an update on some of our plays. and then most importantly, I want to talk about a specific play that I believe I was wrong on. I gave it a chance to report better numbers and prove its value, but it's let me down so I have to let it go. People often talk about diamond hands, but diamond hands are really only diamond hands when you're holding a diamond.

It's also important to note that plays have to earn your conviction. Plays don't just become high Conviction plays overnight. They have to earn that title. And if they let you down, well, they can lose that title as well.

For example, when we first started talking about another stock, Neo, it was trading at like four bucks a share. under four bucks a share at 361.. it didn't become a High Conviction play overnight. It forged its conviction over the last couple of years by keeping its promises, reporting good numbers, and providing real value to customers in a very rapidly growing market.

And so since we grew our conviction in Neo since it was just a little baby Neo, well, that conviction is more unwavering. It earned that. And that means that even though the Eevee market hasn't been so hot, even though Neo is going through the chip shortage, I haven't wavered my conviction one bit because we grew that conviction. That's the whole point of having some high Conviction plays, but at the same time, the other half of that is if you have a play that isn't earning that conviction, you have to let it go and we'll be breaking down a play that we're going to be letting go in this video.

And before we get into all of this, the only thing I ask of you in return to this video is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe. Okay, so let's go ahead and start with some recaps on our plays before we get into the Big Kicker. So fairly mixed day today, but pretty good overall Week We're starting to see a lot of our dip buys pay off to a great extent and I've been happy to see a lot of you guys locking some profits this week on some of the plays that already got back to where we want them to be at. But the best is yet to come and I want to make sure we're all on the right page.

Okay, so Ozone, our Russian Amazon play is continuing to make a nice balance. Congrats to folks who Dip Bought this. A lot of you have been asking me to cover this play again. It's funny.

a lot of people say previous dips look like missed opportunities, but future dips look like falling knives and it's just so funny to see how the perspective changes everything. Just a month ago, we were all getting sick of getting tested with so many dips, but those are the best times to actually buy these plates. Oh those on my price. Target is staying consistent and I'm a huge believer in this play.

Pltr gotta pinch me folks another green day if you didn't check out our video from yesterday. you want to make sure you check that out before they have their catalyst. Next week, they're having this huge thing called double Click which has a lot of potential to bring a decent amount of attention to Pltr. Okay, so Visa.

So Visa was one of our recovery plans that we said wait for a drop back on March 7th. We ended up getting a very, very nice drop just a couple weeks later. Then we reiterated it as a recovery play in our ad money. Two videos wasn't like this insane huge play so far compared to some of our shorter term plays and some of the other runners, but still as a recovery play, you could see how beneficial it is to buy these dips when people are panicking.

We talked about the big investigation that beat down Visa. He said this is going to recover, so Visa got beat down like a rabid dog on anti-trust investigations into their debit card practices. However, the overall niche I'm very bullish on. I actually think that credit and debit card providers are going to be some of the biggest benefactors of the coveted recovery, which Visa is one of the leaders.

This dip allows us to get a little bit better of a buying opportunity and so far we have been right on that. But keep in mind that was just a little buying opportunity. We have a lot longer to go for Visa. The best is yet to come.

Consumer spending is going to go through the roof. What does that mean? Well, Visa is going to be raking in the fees. If I could go back to before credit cards were invented, I definitely would have invented the credit card because it's a great business. You just take a percentage of all the transactions and then you charge late fees.

if they don't ban on dime, it's really great. But anyways, please like these might not be the most instantly gratifying, but they help stabilize your trading and give you a little bit more diversification. Our square Play has continued to do extraordinarily well. Many of you took advantage of this play during the Dips when we talked about it in our various videos, but now we're back within spinning distance of our price Target at 280..

So I would consider locking in your profits, especially if you bought it in the low 200s keeping some of your capital to hit the price Target. But I'd say lock in some profits a little bit early on this. the last two times it tested a run this high, it failed to break out. so just in case, from a capital efficiency standpoint, I'd say lock in some profits.

Okay folks, so now that we have that out of the way, it's time that we talk about the stock that I was wrong on Maura. Lovely. I'm just kidding. not Mara Xl fleet.

Xl fleet was a play that we said at the end of 2020 was going to come crashing down after its S-pac hype wore off, but that within a few months you'd start seeing it at a bottom. We talked about that back in December and it did end up getting that selling off and it did have some signs of bottoming. But then the Ev crunch hit and then the overall tech crunch hit. And we did downgrade it because I was starting to have some doubts about their business model, but I figured we'd give it a chance to prove us wrong.

I want to give them a chance to report some good earnings, some good guidance, even report some new partnerships, And while they did report some results, it just wasn't enough in my opinion. For a little bit more context, Xl Fleet is basically an electrification company. A company that you take your fleet vehicle to, and they electrify it for a cheap price. That way you don't have to buy a whole new vehicle in order to get an electric vehicle.

you can just electrify a gasoline-powered one. And my argument for Excel Fleet was basically there's a lot of companies that want the benefits of meeting electrification standards, especially from companies that want to be called sustainable and need to have electric vehicles in their fleet to be called that, and from others like the ones in states like California, New York, and some of the more green states. Well, those states have incentives for companies to make their cars more electric and sustainable. So my take was that this is an opportunity for Xl Fleet to offer that, while also offering it at a much lower price specifically because they're electrifying vehicles that the fleets already have.

and also because one of the biggest barriers for entry for any Ev company is of course having to make a whole new vehicle from scratch. But again, Xl Fleet only had to electrify already built vehicles. And of course, I always look for proof of concept with plays, and they've had a pretty damn diverse group of customers operating over one million vehicles globally, and I looked at them in terms of their competition. They had much better production numbers and future projected production numbers than all of their competitors combined.

In hindsight, though, of course, all of the other competitors aren't trading too hot either right now. Obviously, this whole niche in Eevee especially has done bad, but still, I liked the low barrier to entry, the value to customers, and most importantly, the massive market demand. And here's the deal. Excel Fleet hasn't been a complete sleeper.

They have had some new partnerships. This year they have had some really good headlines. Just recently, they announced they were chosen to install up to 1000 Ev charging stations at the Ubs arena. They also got a contract to electrify the Apex Clean Energy Pickup fleet, but it is just not enough for me.

This is not what I expected from them, and they have absolutely let me down. In fact, they are reporting that because of significant friction and supply chain issues with covid and chip shortages, that they are forecasting the first quarter of 2021 revenue to be approximately 1 million or flat versus the prior year quarter. They don't even attempt to provide full year 2021 guidance. If you're not attempting to provide guidance, that means it's pretty bad.

At least the other Eevee companies are owning up to the fact that they have lower numbers coming. This company's not even owning up to that. And one million dollars in revenue for this large of a company. a company that trades at a billion dollar valuation is a disaster.

Uh, we're not talking profit. this is revenue. Profit is too big of a word to even say in the context of Excel right now. And just for context, revenue in Q4 of 2020 was 10 million, which wasn't that great.

but at that time we had a huge promise of exponential growth rates and they had the infrastructure in place to make that happen. And to be fair, look, all Ev companies are going to have some trouble producing this year because of the chip shortages. But here's the thing. during a crisis in an industry, you really have to analyze which ships you're going to stick with for the next tsunami.

And to me, Xl fleet is just too weak a link. I hope that I'm wrong and they become a big winner. and I still think that there's some more value here, but I won't be around to see it happen. In my mind, it's going to take a heck of a lot of improvement over these numbers in order to see it get the price back up.

So with that, I am officially cutting Exo Fleet off our price target list. And look folks, I understand Excel Fleet's going to have more catalysts in the future like they just had on the bounce a couple days ago where you get these little short term runs. But it's going to take a lot more than that to sustain an uptrend and to sustain actual value. Okay folks, well anyways, that ends this video.

If you have any questions, go ahead and let us know in the comment section below. If you'd like to join us on Ziptrader Circle, our free Facebook group, I'll link to that below. If you'd like to join Ziptrader, you would like access to our step-by-step video lessons, our private chat, our daily morning briefings, as well as our price target list with all our upgrades and downgrades. Well, I'll go ahead and put the link to that below.

The weekend might be the perfect time to get some lessons under your belt and then start Monday market fresh with the daily morning briefings. And of course, if you'd like some free stocks with Weeble and would like to sign up for a great broker, I'll put the link to Weeble down below as well. Anyways, have a great day and I'll see you in the next video.