Okay folks, Insanity incoming. and there are three major items on the agenda today. Number One: Will this rally last? What does history say and what does the historical context tell us? How does this rally stack up against other Bear Market rallies? Is this the one to end the Bear Market or are we just on another leg before the next massive downtrend? Number Two: We will discuss the hottest tickers heading into this week, including Bed, Bath and Beyond, which started rallying again towards close on Friday and Oogabooga Amc. And lastly, number Three.

I want to briefly talk to you about what catalysts are dropping this week, including the Fomc meeting minutes from the Fed, which will showcase and reveal a lot of the little hints and details about what Fed members are thinking and what they actually said during the last rate hike decision. Oftentimes the Fed meeting minute releases tend to be a bigger deal than the actual Fed meetings themselves. This video is sponsored by Zip Trader and our Recession 50 50 off coupon code coupon code expires Labor Day. Okay, so let's go ahead and start with this rally little rally.

Ralito! The market right now is on its most aggressively consistent rebound run that we've seen all year. You have the Nasdaq up 22 that's mid-june lows. You have the S P 500 up 16.74 from those same lows. Eternal market, optimist and fun guy to have at nearly every party.

Michael Bury tweeted on Friday quote Nasdaq up 23 off its lows Congratulations! We now have the average Bear Market rally across 26 Bear Market rallies from 1929 to 1932 and 2000 to 2002, the average is 23 after 2000, there were two 40 plus Bear Market rallies and one 50 plus rally before the market bottomed. While this guy would probably also argue that the last 100 years since 1929 was all just one massive Bear Market rally, well, the fact of the matter remains: We've seen many, many rallies in the past in overall Bear Markets that were just like this, if not much bigger that then went on to just be a massive fake out that took us to lower lows. so at least historically taken alone, the rally does not mean much for a overall recovery or an ending of this massive Bear Market, but for many market participants, what makes this recovery rally feel different from the one that we had in March is that this one is mostly stemmed by a steady switch in the macro narrative. 2022's market has been dominated by the start, the very start, by the fears of continued record high inflation and the calamities that would result from central bankers having to go to mortal combat with it.

The entire year was inflation inflation. Fed Fed Recession Recession. That was what was on the market's mind all year, and that is what it sold off on, but tons have shifted ever so slightly but meaningfully on each of those fronts. This started on the Fed Fomc meeting on June 15th, which not so coincidentally, marked about the previous bottom, and the June 15th meeting was the one where the Fed pivoted at the last minute to rate hikes faster in reaction to what was then higher than expected inflationary data.

That was the last time the Fed signaled the need to escalate their trajectory. Since then, they've been effectively guiding market expectations lower and lower. Even after the second 75 basis point hike that we saw at the end of July, markets have increasingly expected the Fed to consecutively raise rates lower and lower and lower until the end at that last meeting in December. That's what the Fed futures are telling us right now, and that's been a huge factor, causing markets to bounce and to bounce consecutively.

There's also the slight turning of a tide with inflation. At least the trend has shifted downward, right? We're yet to see if that continues, but so far right now, we had just the slightest turn back to the downside. Energy and commodity prices started dumping in mid-june and kept going down through July and have continued to go down heading into August, and that has really set the stage for even lower inflation expectations, which the Fed looks at. They like to look at the survey of where the market expects inflation to be in the next six months in the next year.

Then of course, you've got the biggest win with inflation, which was a big win compared to previous reports, but was a terrible, terrible report compared to anything else. Well, that showed that we had averaged zero percent inflation month over month. terrible year-over-year 8.5 percent year-over-year but zero percent month-over-month the first zeroed out month in quite a while, And that zero percent number month over month certainly gave markets a lot to be excited about, right? because they're like, okay, well, hey, inflation is decelerating at the bare minimum, thus the Fed may not actually have to amp up attacks anymore. And then, of course, the third front here is that recession narrative.

Markets and myself included have long been concerned that the more that pricing increases eat into consumer buying power, the more that the Fed goes and raises rates to curtail that, the more likely you're going to be pushed over that edge into a recession. Obviously, we are technically in a recession right now, if you use the logical definition that we've been using for like the last hundred years. But overall, it's pretty safe to say that earnings are pretty damn mixed this quarter, which, as of right now, is causing markets to have some wiggle room. You combine fairly mixed earnings with a less aggressive Fed and inflation potentially going down, and all of a sudden it makes sense that things are slightly less bad, and thus it makes sense the markets would rally a little bit.

We had a checklist a few months ago that talked about the main line items that you want to see improve to see the market actually bottom and rebound, and pretty much all of them are improving at least slightly. The problem, though, and why I am very, very skeptical of this trajectory is pretty clear. right now: we are expected to believe that labor markets are going to remain tight, that consumer spending is going to stay strong, if not get stronger, that the Fed isn't gonna have to raise rates much more, and at the same time that we're believing all these things. we're also expected to believe that inflation is going to magically fall back down to two percent, just drop completely out of the sky and go back to two percent overnight.

And the convincing evidence for why inflation is 100 for sure behind us, and why we're just going to keep going down is what. Well, it's this pansy little drop that we got in July, which was largely driven by the energy segment, a segment which, by the way, the White House has been saying all year isn't in our control, but is rather up to the whims of a foreign leader. And so the point is, hey, markets are looking at this trajectory and they're expecting it to drop straight down to two percent, and they'll probably get a nice drop for at least the next couple months. Commodity prices are still dropping, and there's going to be a ripple effect as commodity price drops start really getting factored in to the numbers and prices Also, what happens if inflation doesn't go down constantly and steadily over the next few quarters? What if it goes something like this and then it stagnates at 5.5 or 5? What if it's stubborn for quite a while and then all of a sudden a new rebound in energy prices takes hold? What if continued rolling shortages and all the artificial dollars that we printed the last couple of years just continue to cause massive problems in inflationary pressures? Well, the natural results of that is: the Fed is gonna have to go on another round of escalating aggression and then boom markets sell off again.

Personally, I am hoping that commodity prices dump and dump massively and never go back up again. That would do wonders to bring down overall inflation, but would it bring us back down to two percent? It's possible that we end up plateauing much, much higher because of the spiral labor costs that probably aren't going to come down without a massive recession, and because of a lot of shortages that we are still dealing with and probably will continue to deal with over the upcoming years to the extent that by the time the shortages are over, all of a sudden, businesses are going to be like, hey, well, the consumer has gotten used to paying 70 more for this pair of pants. Why are we gonna go back down? They're selling great and you start seeing that all across the economy and guess what? Inflation has become entrenched and it's not going back down. I still retain the view that the Fed is going to have to do a lot more than they are currently saying.

Okay, number two, I want to talk about the hottest trades heading into this week. Let's start with Bed Bath and Beyond. So Bbby had an extremely consistent run up, got a bludgeon, and then declared some support and rebounded, and as of Friday after hours broke into a new high. Generally speaking, the pattern with these is when you get a massive rally closing out the week.

It tends to garner more interest over the weekend, and then you get a pre-market pump and then a taking profit period where it finds support from that. taking profit period tends to serve as either a bouncing ground to a newer high or a period of time where enthusiasm wins. If it drops to a higher lump, it tends to be the case that if it drops to a higher low than the previous one, then all of a sudden people are like, okay, well, the overall momentum is still intact, But if it breaks that high or low and even breaks the previous low, then all of a sudden people are like, okay, this is dead, this is not coming back and then all of a sudden it's a lot harder to restart the momentum right now. I think the overall meme trade, the meme Revenge trade is still on fire overall, week over week over week.

so most likely Bbby will still have that rocket up its rear end. And my guess based on current available data is that we're going to see newer highs within the next week or two. Max probably hit 20 dollars easily. And see, I did a full video on my perspective on Amc on Thursday, and I highly recommend checking it out if you haven't already.

The guy in the video is dangerously handsome though, so I do want to warn you on that. you want to be very, very careful. But essentially the rundown is this is going to be the most significant week for Amc in over a year. Why? Well, because they have their ape dividend coming on Friday which will be distributed to everyone who holds Amc shares as of closed on August 15th, which is tomorrow and these shares should be completely tradable by August 22nd.

But I would argue that this is going to be the week where if you see another Momentum rally it would be this week. and I see this as a catalyst that could one put some pressure on short sellers at least over the next two weeks, bring in some speculator capital and some attention, but over the long run, keep in mind that this is dilutive net in an effect and the Sec filings Admit that that's not me saying that, that's the Sec filings. And we talked about that on the Thursday video. But on the other hand, maybe I'm just trying to earn my nickname Fudd trader.

I like that one better than Zit Trader. I had a pimple once and everybody's like this isn't zip trader, this is Zit Trader. But anyways, the other stocks that I'm watching heading in to open tomorrow and that you're going to see on our Zip Trader you daily morning briefings are number one. More Lovely Maura, which has consistently bounced back in the overall Bear Market rally alongside Crypto and some more euphoria for that Varu Varuvivaru which just had a pattern breakout to a new channel high.

And of course also the Monkey Pox trades like Gov X, which have been on a nice breathing cycle And I'm looking for the next outbreak no pun intended. Next outbreak of Monkey Pox. Momentum to come back. Maybe a new Who announcement, Cdc announcement? Whatever.

something that gets people interested in the trade again. Finally, Catalyst. Not much in terms of earnings. A lot of the major companies that were reporting earnings have already reported, and I'm not super concerned with any of the reports really this week.

But that said, I do care about the Fomc meeting minutes and those will be released on Wednesday. There's a huge disconnect between what the market has increasingly thought the Fed is going to do and what the Fed has actually started saying. Believe it or not, a lot of the dovish members have started coming out, especially since the rate hike decision. They've actually started gotten expectations to the hawkish side, which is like the opposite of what the market has expected them to do to me.

I think they're looking at the market and like this symbolizes a lot of financial conditions starting to loosen again on their own. Expecting the Fed to eventually loosen market conditions or at least stop with the tightening. And so in terms of Catalyst for the next two or three weeks, that could potentially derail this market rally, I would put the Fomc meeting minutes as the number one catalyst. Retail sales are also expected to come out on Wednesday.

Anyways, folks that caps off the video, make sure to hit that ravishing like button and subscribe if you want to get up to 10 free stocks with a excellent trading app Moomoo, I'll put a link to them below if you want to join us in zip Trader U. This video is sponsored by the 50 off coupon code recession 50 on the program. Hit the link down below and check out what we offer and see if it is a good fit for your trading goals. Have a good one folks and I will see you in the next video.