Folks Insanity In coming, we've got a lot to talk about. Number One, the latest economic data that is just out. We have a new wave of really alarming data points that we need to go over. Whether you are talking about the Pumped Jobs report from last week, the latest profit forecasts, which the debt situation, or a number of other data points, there's a lot that we need to go over.

Number Two, we need to go over the important Catalyst dates like the CPI report that is coming out this week and some other ones that you're going to want to know as well as what the market is expecting. And finally, number Three, we need to go over our Svfd top trade idea. The lovely Svfd rallied about 127 percent from our first alert in Zip Trader U during Market hours on Thursday We also presented this here on the channel Thursday night and I need to give you my latest thoughts on this heading into this coming week and whether or not there's still some setup left with this play. and I will go ahead and put all the timestamps down below.

And also I do want to remind you that in two days on Tuesday night, zip Trader use coupon code war will be expiring so if you want to get 60 off, you only have a couple more days left to do so one time fee membership includes our step-by-step lessons, private chat, daily morning briefings which are very, very popular right now, and a host of other resources that you can learn more about with that link down below and by the way, we really appreciate all the new members who have joined under the sale. Welcome to the team! Okay folks. so we are entering yet another week where markets are only a lick just a little lick below previous cycle highs and trying to break out higher. You are now about 14 down from all-time highs, which is not much considering the low of the Bear Trend had us down about 27.5 percent from all-time highs, which was back in October The irony though with this is that most of the economic data sets today are far worse than they were in October Even the ones that are forward-looking I'd argue, especially the ones that are forward-looking whether you are talking about the manufacturing sector, the stubbornness of inflation Now versus what it was expected to be.

back then, the banking collapsed as we hadn't even heard anything about banking collapses back then, and quite frankly, the optimism on growth. Well, all of these things from then versus now now is much, much worse these days. Most data sets are even neutral at best, or very, very pessimistic. Yet, markets right now are on a path that, chart wise suggests that we're running up to all-time highs.

So let us go ahead and dig into some of the data that we just got. The most recent Jobs report came out last week and it was billed by many in the media and politicians as being proof that we are not in a recession, not heading for a recession, and that all things are hunky Dory Dory hunky CNN which is known for nothing but robust accuracy in their reporting reported this: U.S Labor Market Heats back up adding 253 000 jobs in April and this job growth was pretty broad, with the biggest number coming from education and Health which who the hell knows why those two are looped together. But in any case, according to this report, job openings are growing pretty much across the board. You're starting to see the job market expand again.

So what's the problem? Well, of course this data is from the government. That's the problem. Trusting government data on the economy is like trusting a first grader to grade his own homework. Little Jimmy is always going to make himself look good.

and it is the same damn thing with the government. The government picks and chooses data to make itself look good. And here's one specific way they do this: This is from Reuters last month on the last report Quote: fake listings might be skewing the government's count. Nearly half of hiring managers said they left job openings up to give the impression their firm was growing Small business lender clarified Capital found in a summer survey.

More than a quarter said they simply forgot to delete a stale opening to reread a key line here. Nearly half nearly half of managers said they left job openings up simply to give the impression that their firm was growing. Nearly half a quarter of them simply forgot to delete the steel opening a quarter. Yet this is the data that the government uses to show how healthy the economy is.

And this is the data the FED uses to dictate how much farther they can afford to raise rates. But these job openings. They don't mean scat. These businesses aren't actually willing to hire people.

they're just posting openings that they don't mean they're fake openings. My neighbor's daughter has a lemonade stand. She's like 11 or 12 years old. Very very sweet girl.

But you'll have this lemonade stand. And according to the government, if she decides to go and joke around and say oh, we have 10 new job postings, well the government can go and look at that data and be like wow, she just created 10 new jobs. Wow, we just created 10 more jobs. Re-elect us because the economy is so good.

But can she actually afford to hire 10 more people? Is she actually serious? Hell no. Her lemonade tastes like Now look folks, the government is stupid. But they're not that stupid. They know they can adjust out this discrepancy and adjust the job count downward, yet they choose not to.

It's funny how with the CPI they choose to do a lot of different adjustments in Voodoo math to make sure that the CPI is not looking overheated, overheat it yet When it comes to something like the jobs number which they want to be higher, they do everything in their power to make sure that it's not under heated. It's absurd that so many companies have job postings that they're not even serious about, but they're still counted as open jobs. It's completely ridiculous, and it has real world implications where the people that are actually making decisions on say, rate hikes at the FED while they're looking at data that's not even real. And this is all fine and dandy right now as the economy is still fairly functioning.

but as the economy starts trending down and down and down, this is going to be very, very dangerous and hopefully they get their act together. Okay, let's go ahead and talk about the debt situation here. So the suspense is heating up on whether or not Congress will pass a debt ceiling increase to avoid a default, and the bond market is factoring in an increasing risk of this happening. A default happening as short-term treasury yields jumped nearly 100 basis points from the fourth to the fifth this previous week, which means markets are hedging at a rapid clip.

The risk of a default? What are some of the potential consequences of a U.S debt default? Though while you'd likely get an international credit rating downgrade, you'd have to pay higher interest rates on U.S debt because our debt would be far riskier. You'd see a huge loss of confidence in the government, which already doesn't have much confidence, but does have confidence in terms of their ability to make sure that our debt is paid. You'd probably have many more banks that rely on interest income from their treasury reserves start collapsing. You'd likely have to see dramatic spending cuts and tax increases to be able to fund the government.

And of course, financial markets would flip the hell out. But at the end of the day with all of this negative coming out, while stocks are still going up right? So what is driving this Market Well, largely Powell's rear end and what managers think is going to come out of it next. But one of the other big drivers of the market is profits and markets haven't wanted to look at this. Markets have wanted to avoid this at all costs.

They don't want to think oh, our profit's going to go up or down in the next year, They want to think oh, everything is fine and dandy. We're gonna run the Fed but in reality there might be a big discrepancy between when the FED pivots and what the price often pictures looking like for companies. right now forward, profit margins are expected to go down and they are trending down at a rapid, rapid clip. Whether you are talking about the S P 500 or the S P 600 which is weighted in small cap or the S P 400 which is weighted in mid caps, you look at forward earnings.

Overall, it's just been straight down and even Warren Buffett said at their Berkshire conference over the weekend that he expects earnings at the majority of the conglomerates operations to fall this year as the coming economic downturn slows corporate activity further, and Buffett is known for choosing some of the best companies in the world. If that kind of drop is going to happen to his companies, imagine what's going to happen to your average run-of-the-mill value trap, which is like every other company. Moving on, let's talk about the Catalyst coming this week that you need to know about. The big one is the CPR report coming out on Wednesday Inflation is forecasted to have increased about 0.3 percent month over month and 5.5 percent year-over-year Sands Food and Energy.

You also have the Producer prize index coming out on Thursday that's expected to show a 0.3 month over month gain and then Friday. We have another consumer sentiment reading coming out and we have decent amount of earnings plays coming this week as well, with some pretty big volatility around them, so make sure to watch out. it should be a very, very fun week. Okay, now let's go ahead and talk updates on our latest trade idea Svfd.

So we introduced our top Trade Idea segment back in March and so far it's been a huge success so far. Knock on wood all five stocks that we've called out in the Top Trade Idea segment have been winners. All have hit massive new highs in the day after or the following days after we called them out. Brds ran about 135 percent alert price the highest Gfbr about 152 percent alert price the highs Aemd about 83 alert price the highs Ftec about 50 alert price to highs and then most recently Svfd about 127 percent alert price to highs.

We've had such a good winning streak with these that I'm starting to get a little bit tense about picking the next Top Trade idea because I don't want to break it. But in any case, all we can do is our best, right? But anywho, Svfd has actually been one of my favorite top ideas so far. And why is that? Well, because not only did it have that early morning pre-market proof of concept, but it actually dumped right after open and found support and retention to build off of. I Don't like stocks that just go up I Like stocks that go up and dump big and then bounce back after dumpito.

This proceeded to go from 86 cents to 168. The reason to prefer that is because it is so much easier for Traders to play something that slowly builds than it is for Traders to play something that just gaps up near pre-market open right? I Mean this didn't Gap up, but it was essentially something that was very, very difficult to catch. It was a near gap up, so sure you had some opportunity in that original push, but but you still had a opportunity for a double during this push. I Know a lot of people love love to play beginning rallies and they try to chase them, but a lot of the opportunity that is easier tends to be later on in the setup.

It's when you get the more calm and smooth momentum that you have a more sustainable, a more sustainable uptrend to trade off of if you are trading something unless you are an adrenaline junkie. If you're a trading stopping I suggest making sure that you see that proof of concept and that steady mode momentum. Even better if you see a massive pop that sells off and then retains a higher level because then all of a sudden you have a much easier trading opportunity to attack. You know if something gaps up like this in the morning, what are the odds that you're going to be able to catch it early enough and be able to sell early enough? Probably low, but if something builds small and sustainable momentum like this did on Friday that's where a lot of the potential gains can be made.

Now, what about moving forward? Well, it really depends on the proof of concept this guy shows at Open if it doesn't show proof of concept and it dives through support levels and can't retain anything while the play could easily be dead, we've seen that in many other stocks where you have a massive one or two or three day run and then all of a sudden it just dives through a bunch of support levels and it's like, well, who would want to hold it at that point, It's not even showing that it has the proof of concept, the ability, the confidence in it to retain anything. So tomorrow. Ideally what you want to see is you do want to see a massive dumpito, but you want to see some level of retention. If it can't do that, this plays debt, but if it can do that, you could see some bouncy bouncing to some new highs.

One of the of things though, whether you bought this at 70 cents, 80 cents, 90 cents a dollar, whatever it was. Well, one of the things that you want to be very, very careful of is not belonging to the religion of hold and hope. Adherence to this religion believe that it is righteous to hold and hope. They believe that when they get to heaven God is going to be there at the Pearly Gates and he's going to ask, did you hold so-and-so sketch Penny Stock And they believe if you say no to that, you're gonna go straight to hell.

No folks, look if a stock isn't showing you the proof of concept that convinced you to get into that position in the first place, Well, it's time to get out Right now. We have a good setup heading into this next week. We'll see if it can retain that good setup. Maybe it has another two or three day pop, Maybe it sells off at Market open and never comes back.

We don't know until the market starts trading again, So be open-minded look for the trade setup and also don't be married to any stock right. There will always be tons of opportunities elsewhere if this one goes away. But anyways, folks I Hope this video was informative for you and a quick reminder our coupon code War on Zipreader You will be expiring in two days on Tuesday night Zip Trader Your membership gets you access to our step-by-step lessons, our private chat, and our very popular daily morning briefings. Some of the recent top Runners from our briefings include Cxai which ran 93 briefing price to highs, Evlo which ran 68 briefing price to highs, Ucar which ran 72 briefing price to highs Top which ran 195 briefing price to highs, Sntg which ran 145 briefing price to highs and Qh which ran plus 63 briefing price to highs.

Now these are some of the best Runners We've called out in the past week or so and I can't guarantee you that we're always going to find Runners A lot of it depends on the market condition. Some weeks you get a lot, some you don't. If nothing's running well, it's going to be hard to find some Runners If a lot of things are running, it's going to be a lot easier. Our goal is just to narrow down the research process and present you with catalysts that we see as likely to run.

If this is something that interests you, make sure to take advantage of coupon code War before it expires on Tuesday night. Anyways, folks have a great rest of your day and we'll see you in the next video.