Folks Insanity In coming in, we've got several major things to discuss. Number one, the squeezeapalooza is Alive and Well The Lovely Lucid woke up midday Friday and doubled at highs. The BuzzFeed setup nearly doubled again. AMC's ape goes up 7 on Friday and then 20 in the after hours.

Is there some Arbitrage opportunity here? Well, we'll break all of this down. Number two: The next Fed meeting is this week and we're going to get the next rate hike decision sets. The market has been gaining some froth heading into it. Will the FED got it down again like it has done so many times in the past? Or will this be the first sign of a slow and steady pivot? We'll discuss it in possible Market reaction scenarios.

And finally, number three, we got to talk about the companies that are going to be reporting earnings this week and what you need to know about them. Let's get right to work. But first, a quick plug. Today's video is brought to you by the MooMoo platform and broker.

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Okay, let's go ahead and start with the Lovely Lucid So the Lucid front has been pretty quiet for many, many months and then all of a sudden midday Friday it wakes up and goes from 9 to like 1780. this is actually a fascinating case study in squeezy MC squeezes. The short interest is at about 25 percent, which in and of itself is nothing to scoff at, but the dollar volume short on this is well over a billion dollars. You compare that to other short stocks that have short interest at 25 or even 50 or 70 percent, and this value is still much higher because Lucid's entire market cap is much bigger than most of the small caps that have bigger, much bigger percentages of short interest.

So that means what? Well, it means that net the risk to short sellers. Dollar Wise is significantly higher in this stock versus most other stocks combined, and they were willing to take that risk because of how bad macro headwinds are expected to hit EV hopefuls and Lucid has been one of the biggest Evie hopefuls, right? but that might I just be coming back to bite them in the rear end. Lucid Chairs rallied Friday on rumors of a takeover from the Middle East takeovers usually are at a steep premium to share price and force shorts to cover. And fundamentally, I mean in this overall EV race, Lucid has always been one of the most attractive beasts, mostly because not only have they had a very, very easy time of getting Capital here in the US, but they are also largely owned by the Saudis and are a key part of the Saudi's goal of diversifying away their overexposure to oil.

One of the arguments for Lucid has always been that when push comes to shove, they'll never be short of capital because unlike other EVS, the Saudis just won't let them go bankrupt. They won't be willing to lose their massive investment. They'll just go and inject more Capital into them if need be. and the Saudis are not running low on money.

That's one thing you don't got to worry about when it comes to them, but as the public share prices of Lucid have dropped to 70 80 90 percent down, it creates this Dynamic where it may make sense for the Saudis to just buy the entire entity in its entirety. That way they can better protect their entire investment. and if they're going to go and inject more Capital into them anyways, at least they can benefit more from that. Quite frankly, as Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber pointed out, the Saudis just put another 900 million bucks in Lucid back in November so they aren't exactly backing down on the value they see and Lucid they're continuing to hold strong and continuing to bet more and more on the stock analyst.

Garrett Nelson said Friday If the Saudis buy the remainder of the company, we think they would likely invest more heavily in fixing the operational issues which have constrained its production growth and it likely provides a greater degree of viability for the company over the long term. So the overall rundown here is that a potential Lucid takeover could be very, very beneficial for both sides. The Saudis get to protect their overall investment an investment they're going to have to infuse a lot of capital into anyways, and Lucy can benefit because obviously they get a more direct infusion of capital. But at the same time, they don't have to worry about diluting and diluting and diluting their share price in order to make operations work.

But as of right now, when I'm shooting this video, it is still just a rumor. We don't know whether or not the Saudis are going to go through with this, but the rumor has already been strong enough to really punish those shorty mixed short stirs. And here's the deal. From my viewpoint, there's no situation where the Saudis were going to buy this for double the share price Friday morning, but the stock rallied that much because you had shorts saying, screw this and getting out fast and the rumors and momentum buyers rode that wave.

and I expect that you're going to see a lot more of this. You're going to see a lot more short sellers decide. Hey, you know what? We don't want to take the risk of a potential takeover, so we're just going to go ahead and get out now. And the act of getting out now and whatever resembles the Panic could really really rally up the price here and provide a lot more opportunities for Traders.

Okay, so let's go ahead and move over to BuzzFeed. So for contacts, we originally briefed on BuzzFeed ticker symbol bzfd at about 137 a share Thursday morning and it ran up to 425. That's about a 210 increase briefing price the highs in just two trading days. now.

Honestly, we saw a one day run coming, but really, we did not expect a second day of massive momentum. and hey, I'm not complaining, but it just goes to show you how crazy this Market condition is. About three months ago, if a stock came out and said that they were going to solve world hunger, cure cancer, and end all war and make trillions of dollars doing so, the stock might go up a percent. Now you just have a little bit of an announcement here and there and a spec Catalyst and all of a sudden the stock goes up 200 percent.

This is speculation and froth that we haven't seen since 2021. But anyways, there were two reasons BuzzFeed rallied. The first is that Meta is going to be paying them millions and millions to create content for Facebook and Instagram The second and more covered reason is this new trend of stocks partnering with chat GPT and creating AI content. The stock market loves the new frenzy and this chat GPT frenzy like I said on Thursday is going to be the next Trend Stocks try to jump on and get rally.

Rally Tons My thoughts on BuzzFeed though well watch the overall direction over our red directional SMA line. My guess is still that it's going to break below it and die early this coming week. but as long as it sits and continues running over it and you have some margin I'd expect to see that become a self-fulfilling prophecy until the momentum eventually takes a breath that it just can't recover from. This stock is already up a lot though, folks, and it's going to create a lot of bag holders.

When all is said and done. so unless you want to have a collection of new bags, always ask yourself before you enter any position when am I going to exit. Is it at a stop loss? Is it at a break of an SMA line? Is it at a break of a directional SMA line. Let yourself know that before you enter into the position because otherwise you're just exiting when it feels like the right time.

and usually when it feels like the right time is not when it's up. Okay, let me just tell you that it almost always feels like the wrong time when it's running really, really fast because you're like no, I want to keep getting those prophetitos Okay AMC's ape So for context AMC decided to do a spin-off dividend ape which they would then use to raise Capital AMC and Ape are nearly identical and have nearly all of the same rights. The only major difference is that Ape is approved to be diluted and as ape was diluted and people dumped chairs to avoid being further dumped on eight performed much more poorly than AMC did. Now if you go back to my last AMC video I did back in August I Explained that this was what was going to happen and I got reamed for it because you're not supposed to say anything critical about AMC even if that means preaching risk management.

But that's okay. We'll let bygones be bygone. Charlie is a big boy. However, now that Ape is down in the couple dollar range, it's become not as great of a tool to raise capital for AMC and thus now it's essentially useless to them.

In fact, if AMC dilutes it more, it's like offering shares of its business at a steep discount. which doesn't make any sense CEO Adam Aaron said this himself given the consistent Trading discount that we are routinely seeing in the price of Ape units compared to AMC common shares. we believe it is in the best interests of our shareholders for us to simplify our capital structure and so AMC Just announced via proxy filings that they will hold a special shareholder meeting to vote on March 14th on whether to convert 8 units back into AMC common stock. which is why Ape rallied after hours.

Friday So now there's this question of okay: If AMC and Ape are going to be recombined and they are alike in every major way except for their dilutability, then perhaps there's a lot of Arbitrage in buying Ape right now, right? If they are valued one to one in a combined entity and the share price of Ape is discounted at 192 and AMC is at 551, then does that mean that there's a 186 percent of upside if you buy Ape? Well, it seems to me that there is indeed a very large Arbitrage opportunity here, but it is hard to save the exact amount. The question is, at what price will they actually be combined? Given where they are at right now, my expectation is that Ape sees a huge boost in price heading into any combination with AMC, But at the same time, AMC will see a negative effect as its holders prepare to factor in the dilutive impact of re-adding Ape into the total share count, which changes the overall structure of shares. Outstanding. Now, perhaps Am MC has the benefit of more small cap rallies in the broader small cap market, and that causes a lot of the negative impact to be sort of softened and even blown over depending how frothy the small cap Market gets.

But I would say in a general sense, this is good news for Ape and bad news for AMC at least in the short term. It's also worth mentioning that you had anterior Capital going by nearly 35 million dollars worth of ape back on December 22nd presumably to take advantage of this Arbitrage opportunity. So I think that it's probably not crazy to expect the Arbitrage opportunity to be pretty solid now. obviously.

I see this as bad for ANC stock in the short term, but is it good for AMC in the long term? I would say yes, it's going to be better for AMC to be combined. So that way, if AMC needs to raise capital and they get approval to do so, they can raise it at a much more appropriate price versus what's happening now. which is, they're just raising Capital at a very, very bad price given that Ape is trading so far discounted. Now in terms of other trade ideas and certain catalysts that haven't dropped yet that could be dropping in the coming days.

If you like to see our daily morning bravings where we Brave on all the catalysts we see each and every Market open morning I'll go ahead and put the link to zip Trader you down below and if you join us now, it's still not too late to see tomorrow's morning briefing which will be posted 30 minutes prior to Market Open as always and I believe you're going to see a lot of useful tickers. No guarantees of course because we can't control the market, but I think there's a lot of trends that are heating up pretty pretty aggressively right now. Okay, let's go ahead and talk about the Fed. So Wednesday at 2PM we get the rate hike decision.

We get the Federal Funds projection through the end of 2023 and we get a Powell press conference. We get to see this wonderful mug. Markets are anticipating a 98 chance. The FED is going to raise just 25 basis points to a target range of 450 475.

And what's the expected path a Fed is going to take moving into the end of 2023? Well, it's expected the FED will hike slightly more into summer and then start cutting my thought process. While inflation is still too high year over year, the economy is still too quote unquote strong. So I don't foresee the FED signaling any sign of pivot this early in the process. In fact, I would make the argument that the froth in the market and small cap sectors we've seen so far in 2023 is going to put even more pressure on the FED to guide markets lower and financial conditions even tighter.

Best case scenario: This week: I See the FED going forward as expected and not surprising markets at all. Worst case scenario: I See the FED trying to scare markets back into submission? That's my take. The odds though of hiking more than expected are very very low. The odds of not hiking are also very very low.

Probably just tough talk. If The Fed wants to discipline markets. Okay, finally, let's go ahead and talk about earnings and really the ones I care about so far on: Monday What is loan origination growth looking like? we still got that loan moratorium on student loans in place until August? But how are they handling their other segments in this environment? You've got Phillips Ryanair Whirlpool Nxp Tuesday You got Exxon Mobil How's profitability performing as oil prices go down? This is the second most valuable Oil Company in the world, right? UPS What are we seeing in terms of shipping volumes and profitability? GM How our supply chain costs and disruptions looking Pfizer Caterpillar McDonald's Spotify Philips AMD Snap EA Wednesday You've got Waste Management T-Mobile And then we've got Meta Meta has been laying a lot of people off. Let's hear their projections on their ad business and what's happening next.

More layoffs coming. Zoc you got McKesson Allstate and MetLife. Then Thursday you've got Mark Lily Honeywell Hershey Are they still selling kisses So important to our economy? I Foresee the chocolate trade coming back in full swing. This is why Belgium and Switzerland do so well.

It's because they got the chocolates. Then you got Sony and then the big dogs after close Amazon alphabet Apple It only takes one of these to report disappointing earnings and boom, you've got yourselves a panic. Which one will it be I'd say most likely it's going to be Amazon's second most likely Alphabet. Thirdly, probably very unlikely.

Apple Amazon is suffering from the overall online retail slowdown. Alphabet is suffering from the big drop in ad spend. They've also got this new government Anti-Trust law problem causing calling for a breakup of their ad business, but Apple seems to be the least likely to surprise. Yes, smartphones seem to be slowing down a bit, but they've got other hot segments to average that out.

Ford Qualcomm Starbucks How is Starbucks's Media Ocher coffee selling? One of the best ways to tell if you're in a recession is if people don't feel the need to buy Eight dollar sugary, mediocre coffee. I'll admit, sometimes I do go to Starbucks and I'm not proud of it. but they do have outlets for me to plug in my computer so I can sit there and do my work and drink their coffee, so on and so forth. By the way, if you want to work at a Starbucks never go to a busy one because they almost always cover the outlets at the busy Starbuckses because they want to encourage table turnover.

if they have Outlets people just sit there all day anyways. Friday You have Sega Regeneron Sanofi and that's pretty much the highlights. So anyways, folks, lots and lots to get ready for. It's going to be a very, very exciting week.

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