Okay folks, we've got a lot to get ready for. And yes, you already guessed it. this is gonna be an insane week. Firstly, we've got three major short-term trades to discuss, two of which have already been pretty successful, but I want to discuss opportunities ahead and then I want to introduce a new one, a third one that many people have asked about.

I want to give you my thought process on the setup and whether or not I agree with the current sentiment. Then we've also got 148 S P 500 companies reporting earnings this week, and we've got several major economic data releases, fed speeches, and overall catalysts coming this week that we're going to be breaking down day by day and we will get to work prepping all of this. But first, a quick plug in honor of the Recession that we are definitely not in. I want to bring back our 50 off discount on Ziptraderu with Coupon Code Recession 50.

if you want to get 50 off our one-time fee for lifetime access to our step-by-step lessons, private chat, daily morning briefings, as well as our full price target list and all other trading resources offered with the program, well make sure to use Coupon Code Recession 50 before checkout link below. Coupon code expires Labor Day Okay, would you look at Madame Gov X here. So she's fully completed a repeat of the prior Monkey Pox hype cycle from May and hit a penny over the exact resistance that she hit last time. The high of the current cycle is 339.

the high of the previous cycle was 338.. when people say there's no such thing as repeating patterns in the stock market and that the market just moves based on random hogwash, it's just like, hey, take a second and show them examples like this. And this isn't just one example. You can find millions of examples over millions of different time frames where people when they're making their buy and sell decisions, consults with what has happened in the past.

That's just basic human nature, right? Obviously, previous price action doesn't guarantee future movements, but it does guide a lot of future movements, especially if you have the same catalysts. But anyways, you zoom into the current cycle for context. We originally started briefing on this bad Bad Beaver in this cycle on July 25th at about 119 ish a share. Why did we do that? Well, Because at the time it was showing it was the number one trendy Monkey Pox related trade.

it was showing proof of concept and it was attempting a new breakout of the cycle resistance at the same time that the Monkey Pocket story was picking up steam. But anyways, over the next five days after our briefing, it went from that 119 issue share to 339 which is a 184 run which was fantastic. And obviously not all catalysts run, nor is that really even the intention, right. Catalysts are for finding trading opportunities, not necessarily one direction or the other.

So moving on. here's the thing. we're in this pretty much relentless momentum cycle that has not breathed meaningfully since it started on about the 22nd You had this one trading period including pre-market and after hours where it sold off. But overall, I mean, it hasn't really breathed much, and other Monkey Pox trades like Sega have breathed.

The point here is that an overall uptrend that just does not allow any large breathing room is not sustainable. You could actually do a pretty good job of timing entries by simply looking at how much the stock has breathed and avoiding the stocks when they're not breathing at all for long stretches of time. When this current momentum sprint ends, you're going to see a leg down probably early this week, and then the next round will be the next big opportunity. To me, I think there's a strong chance that the Monkey Pox trade trend continues overall the next few weeks minimum, if not the next few months on a overall rolling basis.

Monkey Pox cases are consistently trending up according to the Cdc, you have pictures of people waiting in line to get vaccines, and I think all the media coverage and consistent warnings from public health authorities are going to induce more attention to Monkey Pox related stocks. But I would still focus on the chart and focus on how well it is breathing by. when it's going, think about a runner in a marathon. If the runner doesn't breathe, you know they are going to pass out and die.

It's the same thing with the stock market and looking back at the previous cycle. remember what happens. Once this trend trade dies off, the price gets completely obliterated, So play responsibly if you're going to play it Okay Tblt. So obviously we've talked about this one in Zip Trader U many times.

We've discussed it on the channel. Some of you may have Tblt tattooed on your right butt cheek, not the left one though, because that's for takers that are the greatest of all time, which Tblt is not yet. it is not yet, but any who context on this is with Tblt. We originally briefed on it back on the 21st at about 470ish a share and that was early on in an overall short squeeze that took it from 470ish to 935.

that's a 98 increase which was just a hair short of doubling which really hurts my heart. Then you had a leg down to the directional Sma and then boom it bouncy, bounced on the next wave of shorts covering and attempted a breakout to a second cycle high. So here's the thing. This current wave and the last wave were stemmed from the same thing.

They were caused by the same thing: Shorts covering. We have data from this from Oratex: the short interest chart. If you look at this huge downtrending arrow of short interest aka shorts covering in mass, that was what sparked the first big momentum rally, then the second huge momentum rally stemmed from here. The same situation, right Shorts in both of these situations, were rushing to cover, and despite the stock price going down as people sold it all of a sudden, all of these new people covering all of these new short sellers covering meant what.

Well, it meant that everybody was going and chasing up the available float. Now, there's a huge liquidity issue in this because it's very, very difficult to find shares to buy because the short interest as a percentage of free float is actually higher than the free float. So the liquidity when covering is actually very, very, very, very tight. Short interest as a percentage of free float is estimated at 135 according to Ortex.

So the idea is, if you want to figure out when you're going to see this meaningfully boom on Shorts covering, History suggests it's during a few days of downtrending. After a big Momentum cycle, Shorts induce a rally by covering people, buy in, chasing the momentum, and then the trade cools down and sells off. and then at the next period of much lower prices, shorts decide to start covering again, causing the next round of short covering induced rallies. And the reason again, that this trend is likely to continue is because short interest as of right now is estimated at about 135 percent.

135 percent of free float, according to Hortex, is sold short. That is more than the available free float. And that means that short sellers have a very, very hard time ahead of them to actually cover. To get out of these short positions, you can think of short interest as delayed buy orders because eventually they have to be covered, right? You think about how all those buy orders go into the system and rally up a stock with very, very little shares available to buy and it's like, well, you can kind of see why people are all of a sudden excited about this and I think that shorts are actually making this worse because because they start covering when the stock goes down and then they try to get their average up when the stock goes back up thinking that that's going to be a risk management procedure.

but so far that strategy has worked terribly for them. My thought process. look for another leg down and proof of concept of a pump to a new cycle. High.

Look folks, I get it. I sound like a broken record. I say hey, wait for this to sell off, wait for it to dip and then show signs of a recovery. That's the ideal way to play a lot of these stocks and some people say Charlie wants it to sell off.

Charlie is hoping this sells off. He is against the retail trader who is holding this and it's like no. but I'm looking at it from a trading perspective and a risk management perspective. There's a reason this channel is called Ziptrader and not Zip Buy Hold, get married, and have 15 kids trader.

It is because with short-term trades, it is inappropriate to just blindly buy and hold them. You are welcome to do that if you wish, but it is not. It is not what we preach on this channel. If there is a stock that we preach as a buy and hold, it's not a short-term trade.

It's based on the underlying business. It's based on the value that we can project moving forward and so on and so forth. But when we're talking about a catalyst play, When we're talking about something like a squeeze setup, when we're talking about something like that. Always a short term play now.

Charlie, How do I find a stock like Tblt on my own? Well, here's an idea for you. Number one: Wake up in the morning in the pre-market and look for stocks that are showing proof of concept. Either that's unusually high trading activity, high volume that's very, very abnormal for that period of time. Number Two: It could also be the stock has already shown proof of concept in the prior period or that morning of being able to run a lot faster than the rest of the market.

And then if it has that proof of concept, ask yourself what is causing it to run like that, What is causing it to show that proof of concept, And then once you've identified the catalyst, all you have to do is ask yourself, well, is that catalyst likely to continue Now we do that every morning in ziptraderu, but if you don't want to be a part of that program, you can definitely do this on your own. You just have to wake up every day, make a spreadsheet, and then just do this every single day. Because if you do that every single trading day for maybe two or three months, you're gonna have a really good grasp on everything that's going on and you're gonna be on the front page the front line when you see some of these big runners. Okay, so lastly, for play ideas, my thoughts on Pgy.

Now this is a stock that I quite frankly am not the biggest fan in the world of right now. I know a lot of people have asked me to cover this, and a lot of people are going to be upset that I said that, but I'm just not a huge fan of her. One thing I do like though, is that she has been pacing herself. She has been breathing, which again, is very, very important to me.

You have an overall uptrend with frequent deep breaths. I think it's quite frankly, disgusting when people say oh, the stock has to go up constantly day after day so I can make my dirty little money while the stock doesn't get a second chance to breathe. Pretty sure that's a human rights violation and an international watchdog is going to require that most countries put some sanctions on your ass. Stocks are people too, and they need to be able to breathe.

So looking at the overall setup, what does this say? Moving forward? Well, every cycle high was at least slightly higher than the last and each had a dramatic sell-off before reaching a new cycle high. So if this cycle repeats itself, we'd expect another sell-off to like 20 or maybe at the most 15 before another rally. But of course, stocks aren't just the charts. it's also what is driving and continuing the pattern on Pgy that we have to look at because the pattern could break on a dime.

Just because of patterns here now doesn't mean it always will be right. And what is really driving Pgy is an increased amount of coverage on social media and financial media, an increased amount of overall hype that's not really based in anything concrete, and an idea that more people are going to buy in afterwards. To me, look at that overall momentum. I see it selling off and then boom if you see just a little bit of proof of concept or else the market's going to notice that and all of a sudden you've got a new leg up to a new cycle high just like we've seen the last few times.

I think the question here is it is the momentum enough to carry this forward, but it's rather, is the different risk factors or the different risk factors enough to derail it? And when is that going to happen? Because we do have a few risk factors here, You have warrants available to be exercised soon, which is pretty much guaranteed to give some more selling pressure. You have the threat of dilution. You also have the fact that the stock is trading at like 10 times the valuation when the company it merged with went public. This is a spec and obviously pretty much all of these hype trend trades that aren't even based on anything really concrete.

Those tend to sell off very, very aggressively and it can really only take a day or two to just obliterate the price. Once that momentum confidence is gone right now, you still have the momentum confidence, but that could be gone like that. So going back to the main point of this if it was confusing, the main point is, hey, I do like that she breathes. I do like the overall momentum that she's showing, but but I think that the risk factors are extreme and could derail this at a moment's notice and I think it's unlikely that you'll even recover from that.

So something to think about here if you're somebody who really wants to trade it. My take is at least at least make sure that showing some proof of concept when it. gives you the next leg down, because otherwise you might just be catching a falling knife Anyways, that is it for that stock. Let's go on to the events coming up and then we'll get into the lovely earnings.

So Monday we have the Manufacturing Purchaser Managers Index released, which will showcase very important, developing trends. It maps variables such as sales, employment, inventories, and prices, all of which are obviously very, very relevant. Right now, construction spending is going to be released as well. Tuesday you have Fed President Bullard speaking at an event called Money Marketeers.

He flies by night as a marketing salesperson. learn the five steps to make money profiting off the Fed. That was a joke, I think. But you also have Fed President Evan speaking in a media conversation on the economy.

The week after a Fed hike decision tends to be the time when a lot of Fed Presidents come out and they start guiding expectations and telling the market whether it's being overly or underly aggressive at pricing. In its new trajectory, we've seen many periods of time in the past where the Fed has guided markets to go lower and substantially lower when they started rallying before the next hike cycle. So something to think about. You also have the New York Fed releasing its Q2 Household Debt and Credit report crucial data points for economic health, right? You have the housing vacancies report Out Wednesday you have Opec holding a conference on production policy.

The Adp Employment Report is out. This tends to come out right before the Comprehensive Jobs Report and gives you some hints and clues about what's going to happen on that actual Comprehensive Jobs report, which is coming out on Friday, you have the Services Pmr release. then you have the weekly Mortgage report. Out Thursday, the initial Jobless Claims report is out.

you have another Fed President speaking and likely guiding expectations. And then Friday you have the biggest economic data set out. The Us Jobs Report for July it is expected to show unemployment at 3.6 If this number is weaker than expected, expect markets to freak out because the main talking point about, oh, this economy is great is really just that unemployment number, right? If it's low, people are going to say okay, well, hey, everything's bad, but at least the unemployment rate is fine. But if the trend starts moving in the other direction and then you also have the Consumer Credit numbers for June being released on Friday.

Okay, ernie, so there are about 148 S P 500 companies reporting earnings this week. Here are the main ones that you should care about. On Monday after close, we have Pinterest, Activision, Avis, Budget Group, Simon Property Group. On Tuesday before open you have Uber, Caterpillar, Bp, Jetblue, Marriott Marathon.

After close, we have Amd, Paypal, so Fly, Sofi, Airbnb, Starbucks, Jillian. Wednesday before open, you have Under Armour, Cvs, Regeneron General. Yum! After close we have Lucid. Very excited to see what they have to say.

Robin Hood, Mercado Libre. Thursday before I open we have Alibaba Key logs, Crocs, Data Dog, Paramount Pen, Gaming After clothes you have Ooga Booga, Amc Block, Fubo, Twilio, Carvana, Southwestern Energy and Cloud Flare Very flarey. Friday we have Giraffe Kings Canopy Growth, Oxygen The Lion. I like her company Goodyear and Cinemark, Pinterest.

I'm looking at their ad Spend business Simon Group. I'm looking at commercial real estate revenues and projections. Uber: I'm looking to see ride sharing and overall economic data in regards to how many people are going out to different restaurants and things if that spending activity is going down. Um, you take an Uber to go to a bar for example.

So they sometimes have that data. That's really useful for us. Caterpillar manufacturing. I want to see what they're saying about the overall manufacturing segment.

Bp obviously oil and Gas. They're doing pretty damn well. Marriott Hospitality, Starbucks, the state of Consumer cyclicals. I'm looking to see what they're talking about there.

and I'm specifically, very, very interested to see trends in companies in the Fintech space like your sofa, your Paypal Robinhood, because those are companies that have just been completely destroyed because of this financial environment, right? Amd will also be giving some elaboration on what's going on with the semiconductor space. But anyways, based on options data, the stocks that have the biggest moves expected this week on their earnings are: Monday This Budget Tuesday, Paypal and Too Simple Wednesday Vimeo Tupperware Skills Thursday Carvana Beyond Meat and Redfin Friday Draftkings and Go! Go Wake Me up before you Go Go because I don't want to leave me hanging like a yo-yo I sometimes moonlight as a singer at an empty disco bar. Anyways, folks, it looks like it's going to be a very, very interesting week. Very volatile and very violent.

I think we're likely to see some big runners to trade off of and some big opportunities overall. So lots to pay attention to and I'm looking forward to spending this week with you. Make sure to hit that subscribe button below if you want to keep up to date with our videos as they come out this week. If you are looking to learn how to trade with our step-by-step lessons, private chat, daily morning briefings as well as our full price target list and other trading resources, I will put a link to Zip Trader you coupon code.

Recession 50 will get you 50 off the program, which of course is a one-time fee for lifetime access, so that's a pretty good deal if I have to say so myself. And then of course if you want to get up to 10 free stocks with Moomoo. I believe that promotion is expiring at the end of the night, and I'm not sure what they're going to be doing into August, so make sure to check that out as fast as possible if you want to take advantage of that promotion anyways. Have a good rest of your day folks and I'll see you in the next video.