Folks Insanity incoming. You better watch this before tomorrow because we've got a lot of big moves happening. First of all, we need to discuss the market setup heading into this week, what historical data says is coming next, and some trade ideas to know we need to discuss our Brds play which has now ran over 130 percent to highs. What is next for it? Is there more left? Well, I'll give you my take.

Okay So let's go ahead and get right to work. And I do apologize because my voice is a little bit hoarse today, but in any case, markets went heavily risk on towards the end of the week and we are now approaching year-to-date highs from January and the S P 500 finished up about seven percent. this quarter, Q1 ended. we're now into Q2.

Q1 was a very, very profitable quarter overall. despite the fact that we were in an unprecedented Bank crisis and we continued to see rate hikes and it's creating this big question of well are we going to head higher isn't bad news for the economy good news for the stock market because it means a more likely Fed pivot. Well, it depends on the context. market performance After the Fed's last rate hiking, a cycle depends on whether whether you are in inflationary mode or disinflationary mode, you pull up the Dow Jones returns after the previous last Fed rate hikes in a cycle, while in a period of inflation.

The three-month return in those periods are all deeply negative, but in a disinflationary period. while those periods are all deeply positive, averaging negative 4.5 percent to positive 8.1 percent, and then going out to six months, you're looking at negative 6.4 percent to positive 13.1 percent. In other words, when the FED is cutting and inflation supports that decision, well, markets tend to do well, but when inflation is hot and the FED is cutting, while markets tend to freak out. Which makes perfect sense because cutting rates when inflation is hot is kind of like lighting a match when there's a bunch of gas everywhere and there's a big gas leak and Powell's there with his little match.

like. So if the FED can wait until the economy is in really dire shape and banks have collapsed and that has brought inflation down somehow. While they may be able to stimulate out of that and produce some pretty solid Returns on the rebound right now, the probability of a recession calculated from the yield curve forecast Source from a Fed branch is higher than at any point since the early 1980s. And if you've been watching Finance content for any time, you're probably sick and tired of hearing about this looming recession.

Everybody just talks about this recession and it seems to never really get here. It's that boogeyman that's in the distance that just seems to never really arrive. But when you pull up the data, it's pretty damn clear that the boogeyman is here. He's just slowly taking on more and more control.

He's just slowly getting into more and more areas of the economy and the system. It's not that we are heading for an economic catastrophe, it's that we are already in one and it's only going to get worse and worse and worse. And compounding. Compound and compound.

look no further than the slow and steady collapse of the financial sector that started with Crypto and then moved to small Banks And now it's starting to hurt bigger and bigger. Banks We said six months ago here on the channel that you're gonna see this spread to Banks and back then it was considered fear-mongering but today it's considered fact and I'm not sitting here like Albert Einstein on a high horse. Anyone with two eyes and a nose could have seen and smelt what was coming. Right now, we are experiencing a slow and somewhat controlled collapse of the economy that will end only when and Central Bankers and Regulators decide to end it.

But in regards to the stock market, the buy the dip crowd has been very, very strong. Mr Perma Bear Michael Burry himself said he was wrong to say sell because if you go back to the 1920s, there has never been a buy. The F in-depth generation like the current one in 2023 right now is shaping up to be the second best year for the dip buying strategy ever. And it's likely because we're in this Dynamic where investors have been trained time and time again to buy the dip every single time bad things start happening.

Sure, you could sell off When You're Expecting bad things to happen, but by the time bad things are already starting to happen, banks are starting to collapse. That's when you want to start buying and I think probably they're a little bit too premature right now, but that is what they're doing. You're seeing the body dip crowd just waiting there with all that Capital trying to pour it back into the market now that you've seen it dip. Now that things are actually going bad, they're like, okay, well, that means that the FED pivot is down the road and that means maybe we're going to get a return.

Of course we know based on the data that we just showed that it depends a lot on when the FED pivots and what the inflationary picture is and so on and so forth. But of course you have this by the dip crowd. That's like I don't really care I just want to see things collapse and that's when I know there's blood in the streets and that means that I'm going to have to get back into the sheets. After 2020, you saw a huge sell-offs heading into the lockdowns and then shortly after the lockdown's about two weeks the market had bottomed and then you got a massive mass of Rally ralito for a year plus in a similar way today, while markets had crashed way before they needed to.

and perhaps they're starting to find a bottom because things are actually starting to break you look at the Vix Trend right now with shout out to Game of Trades on Twitter He posts great content I Highly recommend following him. But in terms of the vix, the measure of fear and uncertainty which skyrockets when the market panics, well, you're seeing it just about to hit that overall upward trend line. It's been calming down. Markets have been calming down, there's been less need to hedge against uncertainty, but now all of a sudden you're hitting that trend line which has been steadily moving up for a very, very long time.

Signaling a new massive Panic unless this trend is broken, could be in the next week or two. My thoughts on this: well I Honestly wouldn't spend too much time obsessing over the market Direction Because quite frankly, it's not going to be very, very helpful. The FED can completely dictate a new Direction anytime that it desires. It can completely change a policy stance that completely changes the trading valuation of half the market in a moment's notice.

So if you're trying to predict something with all these fancy tools and data and historical backing, well, yeah, that is important to understand the context and speculate. but the FED can completely just decide whatever the hell it wants at any point and then completely switch the game. So I would focus not so much on the macro, but I would focus on the micro. Where are the little trading opportunities within this? Where can you exploit some of these moves? Some of this volatility.

And with that, we've got to talk about a little birdie. Will the little birdie keep flying Or is it bye? Bye Birdie Time. Well, here's the context: 32 minutes prior to Market close on Monday March 27th we alerted Brds as a top Idea in Zip Trade Review. It was then trading at about 13.6 cents.

We later made the case on the channel for a rally rally toe based on high short interest short stumping onto every major good news event, previous pattern history, and the fact that the team at Brds hasn't historically been very dilution heavy. In fact, they have done very little solution sense going public via spec. And likewise, Brds has run from our original alert at 13.6 to 32 cents, which is about a 135 increase alert price to highs. Now, obviously not all of our trading ideas are going to run and yours won't either, but this is a testament to putting your head down and doing the work and doing your due diligence right.

Because if you put the work in and you don't just employ some randomized approach to your trading that makes no logical sense, then maybe you're going to be a lot more likely to find stocks that are actually going to run right. This was a cookie cutter play so far. Not only did it break three of The crucial breakout zones we identified, but it's managed to consistently hold above them, allowing Run cycles and dip cycles that kept getting bought up and kept the overall direction alive. This was the definition of a buy the book play and Shout out if you played it in a by the book way haha that rhymes I should be a poet, but what about moving forward? Well, shorts are increasing net, which means they are in the process of dumping more and more shares onto the market, increasing that overall Supply which has helped suppress the price, which otherwise may have run much, much more.

but if you look closet, you can see short interest has been on an overall back and forth uptrend. The problem here, folks, is pretty obvious. The problem is that heavily shorting a relatively illiquid stock isn't the smartest move if you need to buy back those shares fast, because that means that you're going to be bidding up the price really, really fast and there's not going to be any sellers, which is why it's so much easier to squeeze shorts in these positions versus in other types of positions where the market cap is much higher and there's a lot more shares being traded. If you look at this dip here that happened from Tuesday to Wednesday, then you pair it to the price action.

You can see that from Tuesday to Wednesday you have the original massive run. My guess is what happened here is you had a huge flurry of buyers in the Tuesday pre-market and then that caused a huge rally rally though that turned the pressure up on Shorts and they couldn't handle it. Those shorts then use the sizable morning dip cycle to initiate purchase orders and close their short positions. But that backfired and helped create this huge fomo momentum wave that ultimately caused a more than a double.

But then you have the situation or very quickly shorts realized, hey, wait a second. We actually can't close out our short position without Mass possibly spiking the price. so they reverted back to dumping and trying to suppress the uptrend and kill morale. That kind of worked.

The prize had a take profit period and refused breakout attempts, but then Friday it blew right through the line of short Sellers and broke out to 32 cents. Now my original forecast if you watched our video on Wednesday Well, my original forecast was that Brds would sell off into the weekend and come back swinging on Monday which is true for a lot of small cap hype plays, but the fact that it played this strong I think makes the case of more and more breakouts a lot more likely. So moving forward into tomorrow and early this week, I expect you're going to see substantial, more short interest increases, which should spur dipping periods for the stock as short sellers dump a bunch of shares onto the market. we've seen so many over the weekend.

Runners Runners that run up to the weekend get completely destroyed come Monday morning when you get a morning panic and when a lot of the take profit people start thinking hey, you know what, let me lock in my profits that I just held over the weekend. The question to me isn't so much if that's going to happen, but whether or not Brds will be able to act actually bounce back from it if it does a good morning. Panic could take this down to 22, maybe 20 cents again, but the question is is it going to be able to bounce and hold off that and break out past 32 cents again and I think it's got a good shot, but always remember old resistance levels become new. Support 25 cents is going to be a key point to hold just like it was a key point to break.

same thing with 20 cents. same thing with 18 cents. If it breaks through those and it can't even hold that 18 cents, well, the play is probably going to be dead, the momentum will be considered Dead on Arrival On the other hand, the higher this can hold and the faster we can bounce off, the more likely we can see this run to save 45 to 46 cents and perhaps even take on more ground. As you know I look at stocks from a proof of concept standpoint: if it's not able to prove that it can break these different levels of resistance or hold levels of support, Well, all of a sudden I'm going to be thinking okay, well, maybe it's a garbage stock, maybe the play is over.

My suggestion to you is make sure that the stock is proving to you that the momentum is still alive and well that there's enough holders that are keeping support levels that there's enough buyers at higher highs and breakouts of resistance Because the minute that that starts drying up is the minute that you want to be long gone. Okay and quick. bonus stock I Want to give you an update on Pxmd? So Pxmd is on paper: The Squeeze Play Of our dreams, but for some reason it just doesn't want to really move. It's got everything going for it.

Short interest is at 54 and Rising net. The stock is trading at a lower range, historically indicating a better deal. It has previous patterns indicating a high likelihood of big breakouts It has FDA Catalyst which we've talked about before, yet you just can't seem to get any sustained interest in this stock. but I'd Pay close attention to the short interest here.

Shorts have been a bit more iffy about punching the stock as of late. They too might think the risk is elevated at this moment, and if you start seeing short interest drop further into the week, that could signal a broader Exodus of short positions and that could cause the stock to really start taking off. I Like to look at shorts as delayed but guaranteed buyers. They have to buy back shares in order to close out of their short position and lock in a profit or a loss.

But as they increase short interest, the price is going to get suppressed and suppressed. And then on the flip side when they start buying back in and closing out that short interest, well, the price is going to be ate it. And right now short sellers, they're in charge and driving the price lower net. But if there's enough buyers, that game could change very quickly and blow up right in their faces.

So make sure to keep a close eye on this bad bad girl. Anyways, that caps off today's video. Make sure to hit that ravaging like button and subscribe and I will see you in the next video.