Okay folks, we've got a lot to talk about. so Number one: Numero Uno. I want to talk about one specific play of ours that just went up 60 today at Highs, which is actually saying quite a lot because today was a rough day in the market. I want to talk about why I ran so much and my thoughts on it moving forward.

Number two: I want to give an update on Hugo Buga and an interesting report that just came out suggesting that a massive, massive institutional player has had a very secretive and massively scaled up long position in this and what that suggests in terms of their outlook for a potential squeeze. Lastly, number three, I want to talk about some big red flags for the market, What is causing this spooky trading that we've been seeing And the only thing that I ask before we get into all this is that you hit that ravishing like button. Go drink some tea. has to be green to your black tea by the way.

And also don't forget to subscribe either. Okay, let's go ahead and start with Naov. So we did get a nice win today with Noah. Talked about this bad bad boy in yesterday's public video as they set up for a meme squeeze.

Thanks to high short interest, high retail interest, and of course previous history, this handsome gentleman over here is looking really, really good. We've also briefed on this many times as a potential Momentum Play and Zip Trader you over the last couple of weeks. Fact, even as early as July 29th, when it was trading in the very low twos after its sell-off we had it on the briefing as a multi-runner watch. Why? Well, because it had a good setup characteristics that suggested a high probability of a next retail rally.

The only question was whether we'd be patient enough to give it time. and today it capped off a near double by going from the low twos to four. Now to anyone that caught this: if you did well on this play, you know this wasn't an easy play. People are going to call you stupid or a degenerate gambler, but you know that if you want to find these plays, you have to be putting the work in every single day.

You have to be willing to be punched in the face sometimes. and then when you actually get the run that you've been looking for, you have to be able to control your risk on that run. But just know that dedicating yourself to the process and putting the work in each and every single day is what allows you to get in the right place at the right time. Obviously, what was special about this one is that we also got a chance to talk about it on the public channel, which is usually not the case with a lot of our squeeze plays, but at the end of the day you can't yolo into place.

This is a probability game. You have to have risk management. You have to be putting the work in yourself and you have to learn from your experiences. You look at a similar play like Excela on August 1st.

We talked about that having a similar setup with high short interest, high retail interest, what not. and it ran from 263 to 355 the following trading day, which was certainly a win at the time. But that first run has since died off and we're back where we started. Basically flocked.

What's the point that I'm trying to make? Well, barely any runs lost forever. So it's like, hey, finding probability setups is only part of the game. The second part is, how are you capturing the runs? Are you setting an exit point at validation below the price strength? Blue Sma line. Are you setting it at a change of direction under the red directional Sma line? Are you putting a trailing stop loss? Did you set a price target to sell out at? I don't know how you're doing it, but you want to set something.

That being said, going back to Excel for a second. I actually think this is a similar to noise situation where you have these smaller retail attempted breakouts that lead to a higher probability of a bigger one down the road. But again, what are we working with? We're working with speculation. So how do you control the speculation by having a concrete entry and exit plan? Not by throwing money at your own speculations? It's by having controlled speculation, right? You're taking controlled risk.

Okay, next Amc. Lots of ooga, lots of booga up over seven percent at highs. Today on a day where again the market was either flat or red, it's almost like the new Safe Haven is means. When in doubt, meme it out.

We are speculated in yesterday's video on the data that suggested that there's a lot of money, likely institutional money in derivatives, betting that this would be a bullish week for Amc. There's a ton of call options expiring on Friday, so they need this to be a bullish week, and the massive rise in demand suggests they know something we don't know. For example, there might be a massive restructuring of order flow or at least of short positions coming this week That could create some temporary buying pressure. And when there's temporary buying pressure, you may have some other competing hedge funds decide Okay, well, I'm gonna milk that move or you may have the same hedge funds that are restructuring themselves saying okay, well, I'm gonna take out some bullish positions on a short-term basis in order to kind of hedge my bet against the rising price because rising price would cause a loss on that other position.

Hey, I'm going to be covering some of these positions in order to restructure, or I'm going to be doing something else that causes buying pressure. Why don't I also protect myself and mitigate my losses by taking a short-term bullish position on Amc via derivatives Total Speculation. But the price movement today suggests that there might be some truth to this. That being said, it's pretty damn hard to analyze the game when you can't see most of the board.

And of course, that board is hidden by those beautiful dark bulls. Now moving on a little bit. If you remember last week's video, we talked about how you need to prepare for the 13f filings on Friday. Now, I don't know exactly how you would prepare for that, so maybe I shouldn't said prepare.

But the fact of the matter is that the 13f filings did reveal something very, very interesting. Jim Simon's fund, Renaissance Technologies, which has been one of the most successful hedge funds in history, just disclosed they had slashed their Tesla holdings by 75 percent and tripled their Amc stick. Now, remember, the only reason that hedge funds are disclosing this is because legally they have to. they have to follow these quarterly 13f filings.

So it's probably true that hedge funds don't want you to know they have these positions. If it was in their interest to let you know, they would have let you know a long time ago, just like short sellers do when they release short seller reports. But anyways, they just disclosed they had slashed their Tesla holdings by 75 and tripled their Amc stake in that quarter. But their position in Amc is up about 20-fold thanks to the rising share price.

Now, this is a 13-f report that was compiled and ends at the end of the quarter june 30th, but you consider that they added on to their positions in that quarter. They didn't sell out despite the massive June rally, which took the stock above any fundamental value that the analysts could ever come up with. Well, it clearly indicates, at least in my opinion, that they're not holding this because of the fundamentals. If they did, they would have sold out at 50, 60, 70..

they wouldn't have held it, and they definitely wouldn't have held it through the subsequent crash. So if they're not holding it based on the fundamentals, what are they holding it based on? Perhaps they're holding this because they know there's a lot of short sellers on this and the short sales are going to have to cover eventually. and if they do, they'll be one of the biggest parties to make money on this. If you're somebody that really, really believes the whole mainstream media narrative that the whole Mc stock situation is all just a big conspiracy theory piled together by dumb and sloppy analysis.

While part of that might be true, I think that the bigger context of this is the whole idea that shorts have to cover eventually and this is over shorted. I think that bigger context there is really, really validated when you see the fact that you have these massive, massively successful hedge funds like Renaissance Technologies holding its position in Amc, despite the fact that it's gone up to evaluation that let's be real, Amc would have a very, very difficult time ever fulfilling. Think of all the interviews of Amc apes that you've watched and think about the condescending nature of the questions aimed at people who are holding Amc. Are you stupid? This is a movie theater stock.

It's not fundamentally sound and then think about them directing those questions that one of the most successful hedge funds in history. Are they morons too? Because they're holding Amc, they had over 100 million dollars on June 30th, even if they decided the next day to go and close all of the position they held it through the entire period post-run Despite the sell-off you could toss aside a lot of the Reddit chat or a lot of the Bs that's around the movement. Fine, but you can't really toss aside the picture of there is a concrete level of public short sellers they have to cover eventually and you have a massive, massively successful hedge fund that is appearing to continue to bet on that being the case. So when you're talking about meme traders, it's like, well, are they a meme trader or it's only retail traders that are trying to make money off this that are meme traders.

Fundamentals only matter when retail tries to buy something, but when hedge funds try to do it. Oh, they're just trading off the movements. They're trying to make some good money. But retail doing that.

Ugh. You're a take your money and just put it in a basic stock for the next 20 years. And even better if you put it in a mutual fund, because that way we can earn some percentages on your money. We can use your market power to screw other traders into submissions, so they come invest in us too.

But hey, at the end of the day, this is just speculation for all I know. Maybe the shorts can just go and put on pants and this whole thing is over. So hey, something to think about. Okay, I want to give you three red flags that are troubling the market right now.

First one is fed tapering. You know, I know. Your neighbor Susan knows that the big looming threat this year has been what the Fed is going to do with their easy money policies. When you prop up the market for an entire year and you feed it endless money, what happens? Valuations go up.

Everybody's happy. When you start saying i'm gonna pull back on that, People are like, oh no, you ain't And then they pull money out of the market and everything goes down. So apparently the Fed in leaked reports this morning suggested that they're going to be tapering a little bit earlier than expected November. Some reports even say that a decision is going to be made in September.

Honestly, I'm fairly surprised at this with the Delta variant going around with some of the retail numbers looking pretty damn bad in terms of retail sales, not retail traders. Not everything's about you in terms of inflation reports being hot, but not that hot. not coming in really outside of the Fed's expectations. It's like, hey, I don't know why they need to do this so soon, but hey, it's inevitable that they're going to do it eventually.

The question is, will they do it correctly? We need to see a slow and prolonged taper. There's plenty of evidence that suggests that valuations can stay high if you have a stable and slow enough taper. But in terms of a red flag, hey, I mean, interest rates aren't hiking for a couple more years if they're slow on this, even though this isn't going to be great for the market, hey, it shouldn't be a massive, massive problem. That being said, it is still a red flag in the sense that you need to be aware of this because if they're too aggressive, that could really really spook the markets, they are certainly reverting to being a little bit more preemptive than they were earlier this year.

It seems like now they're like, okay, well, just in case inflation gets a little bit too out of control, we're going to start being a little bit more cautious here. Tapering tapering a little bit might be enough to keep the inflation alarmists at bay, keep the bulls at bay, and at the same time increase the firepower that the Fed has. Should there be another variant storm down the road, or whatever storm. I mean, there's just so many storms these days.

I think there's a storm on the South Coast right now. The world is a mess, But that's okay because we have Tea number two, Chinese slowdowns. Reuters reports that figures on July retail sales, industrial production, and urban investment all missed forecasts trends that are only likely to get worse given the recent tightening and virus restrictions over there. Now remember, industrial productions includes massive massive factories that transact and do business with the United States, Europe everywhere else in Asia.

And when you have the world's biggest exporter and second largest economy being extremely dramatic with restrictions and slowing down all of their production by doing so well, you have a massive international supply chain catastrophe on your hands, which we've already kind of had and we're trying to get out of. And now you have more and more restrictions on a lot of the crucial parts of the supply chain. And it's like, hey, if you're a Us company and you have China in your supply chain, you have a massive problem. Third reason is really just a blanket increase of uncertainty points in the broader economy.

Obviously, we don't need to talk anymore about the damn delta that's causing a ton of problems and uncertainty around the world right now. I don't need to tell you about the terrible situation we have right now in the Middle East and Afghanistan. You look at the fact that we're still struggling with huge manufacturing shortages and labor shortages. Tons of tension around restrictions both going forward in the United States and some going back.

It's like, hey, there's a lot of points of uncertainty right now. This isn't exactly smooth sailing. so if you're a stock market that's trading at all time highs, well, you're thinking, hey, maybe I'm going to be a little bit more cautious right now. Maybe I'm going to start rotating into some stocks that are better deals.

Maybe I'm gonna pull back, but at the end of the day, if you look like six seven months down the road, a lot of these negative catalysts hopefully will be largely behind us anyways. folks that caps off the video. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us below or on Ziptrader Circle. If you'd like to learn how to trade.

With our step-by-step lessons, our private chat, and of course our daily morning briefings, you can join us at Ziptraderu. Go ahead and click the link below and watch our intro video where I'll walk you through personally. everything you need to know about the program. Coupon code footstopper 50 will get you 50 off before checkout, and if you're wondering what broker to trade these stocks on, well Weeble is linked below.

They are a fantastic broker. They have a ton of great resources and tools to get you working in the markets. Two free stocks when you both sign up and deposit using our link below and you only have to deposit five dollars, so that's a pretty good deal anyways. folks, that's it for today and I'll see you in the next one.