Folks, the last few days have been a massive escalation of this Russia Ukraine and really Russia and West proxy war. It started with Biden going and making a surprise visit to Kiev and pledging further U.S support which was a move seen by Russia as provocative and of course a reminder that Russia is indeed fighting a proxy war against really the west and really the U.S Right after that, you had Putin going and suspending the last remaining nuclear arms control pact that they have with the United States. At the same time, the Russians tried test launching their Satan II missile which reportedly failed and then you had Putin come out and give a speech trying to Rally up support for the war and now Biden just came out in Poland and did the same thing, rallying up the Allies warning that they will never waver on Ukraine and apparently it seems like negotiations were basically off the table for all parties involved. Now many analysts are projecting this is going to Spur an even bigger Global arms race and more sanctions.

Maybe the 20th package of sanctions will finally do something. Right now in this video, we are going to break down the escalation and the impact it's going to have on the global economy and some trends that we're seeing right now that you're going to want to watch. Let's start with Biden's visit to Ukraine NPR Reported the visit to Ukraine and Poland comes at a critical time. as the war enters a new and disconcerting phase, Russia has launched its latest spring offensive Ukraine is expected to soon Mount its own counter-offensive with the assistance of U.S and Western weapons and the end of the war is nowhere in sight.

While in Kiev, Biden pledged our unwavering and unflagging commitment to Ukraine's democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. And even more important, that the United States will stand with Ukraine as quote long as it takes so territorial integrity and as long as it takes implies what it implies. The U.S stance is that it will continue to help fund and push the war in Ukraine until the Ukrainians achieve full Victory and get all of their land back, including the land that Russia annexed in the many years prior to the invasion. Which is another way of saying zero negotiations in zero concessions, all or not and we'll fight for that all or nothing for an endless amount of time.

And I'm not weighing in here on whether or not negotiations are appropriate and I'm not weighing in on whether or not it's in the geopolitical interest of the Us to continue to fund the Ukraine war. But all I'm saying here is that you are seeing a situation where there's no negotiations that are going to be allowed at all, which ensures a long and drawn-out conflict. And logically, Russia isn't going to back down anytime soon unless they get something out of it. And Ukraine and U.S and the Western allies won't allow that to happen.

Based on this no Concession stance, Russia simply isn't going to give up without any form of Victory So this is a collision course waiting to happen. In fact, the former Russian president current Deputy chair of the Russian Security Council and staunch Putin Ally came out and said this: if Russia stops the special military operation without achieving Victory Russia will disappear, It will disappear. It will be torn to pieces. And so if you're trying to gauge the global economic impact of this and its timeline, these words mean a lot.

Again, the U.S says we will never stop until Ukraine is Victorious, but Russia says if we're not Victorious we will be Torn to Pieces Which means that both sides are completely immovable on their positions, not willing to negotiate, and thus you're headed for a very, very, very long and drawn-out conflict that's going to bring a lot more people in and people that are already in it but are going to be pulled even more and more in. And as this happens, countries are going to be forced to pick sides which are going to create a lot of segmentation across trading partners and trading relationships around the world. As more and more escalation happens, you're going to see more and more sanctions, which is going to leave a bigger and bigger gaping hole in global relations. In fact, Reuters just reported that China pledged a deeper partnership with Russia on Wednesday as the U.S President Joe Biden reaffirms security assurances for NATO's front line Eastern members highlighting Global tensions as the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches and at the same time as this, you have NATO going and signaling a need for more militarization and more.

U.S troops in the Eastern NATO countries Russian aggression in Ukraine has changed the security situation in Europe Polish President Duda said in a Warsaw meeting with NATO members including Biden who said Washington was committed to defending every inch of the alliance's territory. And with this, you now have Poland requesting a substantial increase of U.S troop presence which again sounds like a pretty big escalation, right? Why all of a sudden are they asking for more and more presents? Why didn't they ask for this Six months ago a year ago? Why is it all happening now? Well, because everybody is planning for next stage, a next escalation and that is exactly what's happening. And then you go over to Moscow Putin Just gave a big speech a Russian State of the Nation address and he essentially told the Russian people that it was the West who started the war and that they are simply using their forces to put a stop to it and he's backing out of a key nuclear agreement quote. I Am forced to announce today that Russia is suspending its participation in the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty signed in 2010 New Start, which is this treaty that they just referred to came into force in 2011 and was extended till 2026..

it caps the number of strategic nuclear warheads that Russia and the U.S can deploy. The two countries have the vast majority of all Deployable War foreheads. So folks, you now have two countries, two of the countries with the most Warheads no longer in an active pact to control the proliferation of them And obviously the game is played where Russia saying oh, don't worry, we're not going to use it and then they just slowly start moving that line All of a sudden, right? it's been moving that line of how we talk about nuclear weapons. Well, they've been moving that line more and more and more aggressive since the invasion.

At first, we will never talk about nuclear weapons, we would never even think about it. And now they're backing out of treaties and now they're going and starting to move a little bit more in the wrong direction folks. and this is a pretty big damn step. They're specifically not happy about the regular inspection part of this agreement.

Regular inspections under the agreement to make sure neither side is cheating were put on hold in March 2020 during the pandemic. Russia Postponed talks to restart those inspections as relations between Moscow and Washington continue to deteriorate over Ukraine. So you have this agreement where Russia would send agents to check U.S military bases for proliferation and the US would send agents to check Russian proliferation. But now put is saying he doesn't want that because he sees this as a huge conflict.

Given the U.S stance on the current War, the U.S and NATO openly say their goal is to see Russia's strategic defeat and then as if nothing happened, they say they've prepared to visit our military bases including our newest said the Russian leader. so he sees it as very very Troublesome that the U.S and NATO have a very very aggressive stance against Russia and their invasion of Ukraine and at the same time want to check out all their military bases for a completely different issue which is the nuclear proliferation problems. Meanwhile, you have other players starting to come into the picture. We now have new drama.

Between the US and China, there's rumors that China will supply Russia with weapons quote the U.S Secretary of State has warned China there will be quote consequences if Beijing provides material support to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine Fox news reports. The concern that we have now is based on information we have that they're considering providing Lethal lethal support and we've made very clear to them that that would cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship. Blinken said when asked what lethal Aid China might deliver, Blinken said quote weapons and what did China say As a rebuttal they said it is the U.S not China that has been pouring weapons into the battlefield Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Wang Wen Bin said the U.S is in no position to tell China what to do. We would never stand for finger-pointing or even coercion and pressurizing from the U.S on our relations with Russia.

So you have this ironic situation where you have the US indeed putting its finger on the scale quite a bit in Ukraine and then going and telling China It can't put its finger on the scale with its own counterpart, but China is providing Aid to Russia in many ways that aren't exactly military, but certainly help bankroll the Kremlin and the Russian economy quote, Trade between China and Russia boomed last year, providing a Lifeline to Russia's beligered economy and showing the limits of Western sanctions. According to a new report, as the U.S EU, the UK have all scaled back operations with Russia, China has emerged by a wide margin to be Russia's most important trade partner. The report says, in fact, it seems like China and Russia were actually spending years and years planning to have a very, very tight and actually building this very very tight economic relationship. Before Russia's Invasion that ever happened.

Russia and China have spent years forcing stronger economic ties, including a 55 billion gas pipeline and Russia's increased usage of China's Yuan. The economic relationship has deepened, even as long simmering concerns remain among officials in Moscow that Russia could become captive to China's economic orbit. So here's the situation: You may have: China not sending weapons to Russia, but they are essentially bailing them out by replacing all of the trading partners that have sanctioned them. Which is why you have the situation here in 2022 where Russia's economy only fell about 2.1 percent when Russia first invaded, economists were saying, oh, these Western sanctions that's going to cause the economy to fall many, many, many multiples of that But because of built trade relations with China and India and others, Russia has managed to stay a lot stronger than expected and thus have a stronger position to continue fighting this war.

In that sense, China has indeed helped Russia quite a bit and this could become a problem for the US very very soon if things escalate On top of that, Russia and China are meeting right now to discuss these economic ties and China is looking to increase its Imports of Russian oil gas informed Goods Forge more joint energy Partnerships in the Arctic and increase Chinese investment in Raj Russian Railways and ports On top of that. This comes at the same time as Russia is due to begin military exercises with China and South Africa on Friday and has sent a frigate equipped with new generation Hypersonic cruise missiles. A Russian officer said on Wednesday Russia would fire artillery but not the missiles whose speed makes them difficult to shoot down. And with China's visit to Russia right now, we have a lot of analysts saying that China's claim neutrality is fading real real fast.

So you have the situation where this escalation of Western support for Ukraine is driving one of the Us's main trading partners and the second biggest superpower in the world to get closer to Russia. And if this crisis escalates, you could see trade relations between the U.S and China degrade down to a new low and all of this is going to overhang the stock market that is once again very very much worried about inflation. and the Federal Reserve it doesn't need this extra mess right now. Seems like the chapters from 2022 are all playing again and again and again.

And what do I recommend? I recommend buckling up Anyways, folks, that's all we've got for you today. If we are still around and World War III hasn't started yet, we'll see you tomorrow. Make sure to sign up for our free weekly email reports down below because we have another report coming out very very soon and you're going to want to read it. Have a good one, folks!.