Okay folks, I've got a Saturday video for you today. I need to talk violently about why the next 15 days is going to be so crucial for the sheep. The cycle that we are seeing right now looks very, very similar. Eerily similar actually to the cycle that we saw in that early October rally that predated this current rally that took it up like 5x.

I want to point out the facts and why. I would make an extremely bullish argument if this pattern retains where the current sell-off bounces from will set the stage for how fast and violently it comes back. Since early October, we've presented the pros and the cons on the sheep and the latest edition In yesterday's video, We focused a lot on the risks and downsides, but there's certainly a strong bullish case here. If the next 15 days goes appropriately and this pattern retains, we'll also be ending with my take on some of these up-and-comers like Flokiecoin.

and the only thing that I ask in return for all of it is that you hit that ravishing like button. And also don't forget to subscribe either. Okay, first I need to issue a correction. So yesterday we broke down four major points in terms of the sheep.

We talked whale holdings, the burn rate, retention time, and how much capital would be added if Robin Hood decides to start trading sheep. However, my point in regards to risk associated with whale holdings was miscalculated. I cited and sourced from a research firm that said 70 of sheep's circulation is controlled by eight whale accounts, of which one whale holds 41 percent, and I cited another one that said that 82 percent of all Shiba Inu was controlled by 100 accounts. Pretty scary statistics, but I did not realize that they had factored in the dead wallet into the statistic, which effectively makes the biggest holder not a whale, but rather a dead beached whale.

And since that makes up such a massive chunk, it totally moots the point. and I should have known better what I should have done. and what I'm going to do now is elaborate directly on the data itself to locate the exact holder of each wallet address. If you look at the breakdown of holders, a solid chunk of the main holders are in the dead wallet in blue, which makes this chunk of the pie effectively not part of the supply, and of course, dramatically reduces supply.

Now we already knew that, but you have to focus on the other part as the effect of supply in order to come up with a statistic of which yes, some of these addresses are whales, but even here, you can see that some of these are clearly coming from exchanges like Crypto.com So in effect, you have the dead wallet as the biggest holder, which effectively limits supply, and you have a sizable chunk of the other notable whales as exchanges, which dramatically changes the picture on the statistics that I cited and spread. In any case, I pinned a correction to the top comment on that video on where I went wrong, but I wanted to further clarify. That being said, there's still more concentrated market power than I'd like to see, and it's probably true that some of them are actually staking their currency in order to earn a high interest rate, especially as the network grows and as time grows. If sheep keeps relevancy well, you could definitely see the number of unique holders start increasing dramatically, which would decrease the remaining concentration risk a substantial amount.

Okay, but moving on the attention of sheep. So the biggest bull argument that you can make for the sheep is that sheep is only in the early stages of retail adoption, Despite sheep passing Doge's market cap depending on what time of day you're looking at it and what source you're sourcing your information from, Some have completely different supply counts everybody's using a different data set, but if you use the accurate ones and you don't get messed up like Charlie, then you could see that. Hey, even though sheep has frequently passed Doge's market cap, the vast majority of peak retail at Doji's heights haven't joined the Sheba Army. Unique holders are still one-fourth of what Doges is currently.

If you assume a similar level or even half a level of retail adoption, there's a lot more volume that could come into this, and there are signs that retail adoption is spreading. If you compare corresponding Reddit communities, which are huge drivers of retail attention, you have Sheep Army almost hitting 400 000 numbers. Amc's relative community sits at 437, and Gme at 347, And more importantly, Dosia sits at 2.2 million. Does that matter? Well, because there's so much concentrated attention flowing into sheep right now that it's coming close to passing some of the most popular Buy and Hodler retail stocks from this year hey, Oogabooga.

But you gotta recognize that Trent still has a lot of room to hit Dogecoin's level of retail interest. Despite again, Sheba already passing its market cap. We ran the Google search trends on Thursday and compared the searches of Shiba Inu and Sheba Coin to Dogecoin. Both were still well below Dogecoin's heights, but they were on the right trajectory.

Guess what if you compare those today? Three days later, both have got substantially higher, Shiba Inu cracking well above this line for the first time, and Sheba Coin almost hitting it as well. I like to use both because people search it by different names, and of course, when you search Chibini, you kind of get some of the people that are interested in the dog in the search trend as well. You want to make sure you have both side by side so that you can kind of get a more accurate sample. So this trend has certainly gotten hotter, despite sheep actually taking a breath and cratering a bit right after its latest peak.

So now we get to the main entree: the technicals. Now a lot of people call technicals astrology for finance, but when you're mapping human psychology and algorithmic behavior, it's very, very common that you're going to find patterns and it'd be stupid not to acknowledge them. And instead of using my usual Sma analysis, I'm going to go ahead and favor the Bulger bands for this. Just because on assets that have run up like 91 million percent in a year, I would argue the Sma isn't as helpful.

Bollinger bands on the chart in yellow are an indicator that allows you to register certain areas of tightening and then extension. The sudden extension of pricing pressures allows you to more easily gauge incoming momentum and compare previous bouts of momentum. For example, the over tightening here that eventually led to a massive dilation of bands that predated the latest run since the 24th. Now, the reason that this is relevant is because we can compare that rally that started from that Bollinger band dilation on the 23rd and led Sheba from just under four zeros and two to almost four zeros and nine a few days ago.

Well, we can compare that to the early October rally on about September 30th. Sheep started rallying towards the upper section of Bollinger bands. The bands expanded dramatically, while sheep stayed in the upper momentum section of the bands. It then tanked consolidating back into the lower region before recovering and bans tightened.

Overall, and the price started entering a retaining region. A retaining region pay very close attention to that moving forward. Now, this retaining region continued as bands attempted several expansions and prices traded back and forth. But it wasn't until peak retention around the Titan portion of the bands where the market realized, hey, wait a second, this is retaining its previous rally.

It's not dumping That then set the stage for the breakout rally that we saw on the 23rd and the 24th where bands expanded so dramatically and once again, that momentum brought it to the next level. Now, why is this relevant? Well, because this is eerily similar to the previous rally. It starts with a huge, all of a sudden bursting of the band's upward momentum. You then get your new peak and then it craters huge.

It then tries to bounce back, but enters a retaining period. If previous patterns repeat, this will bounce back and forth until the bands consolidate again, to a point where the market realizes it's retaining value, and then something will spark a new dilation of bands to the next price point. Whether that be a catalyst, whether that be a sudden boost of retail interest from forums. Whatever.

the same pattern of tightening and then dilation and expansion of bands didn't hold up for previous rallies in September and August and even earlier this year because Sheba didn't have any retaining power. When they pumped, they then dumped massively and you got very, very, very, little retaining. Of previous pump rallies, it would pump and then it would dump just as much. People are much less likely to pour in for a new breakout unless they see some level of retention after the previous one.

You think about most momentum stocks that stay around. what do they have in common? Well, they pop massively, but but they retain some of their previous pup each time. So it's sort of like a stair step. push and pull.

You go up massively. You take a little step back, you go up massively. Again, you take a little step back. You know, if you just go up massively and then you go back down like this all the way back to where you started.

People are like, okay, yeah, that was just the pop and up and it takes a lot harder. It takes a lot longer. It's a lot more difficult to build back that momentum that you lost. So I think that if you're looking at the technicals here, it's extremely bullish if it manages to retain value at this point like it did in the prior period.

and so far, it's doing it just like it did in the prior period. But if you're looking bold, your band breakout two peaks. The early October rally basically 7x does. The most recent rally basically forexed us.

If you're talking time span on how long retention needs to last, you look at the average time period from peak to trough. The last two rallies the first one was about 17 days, the second one was about 15 days. The higher cap you go, the harder it's going to be to multiply at the same rates. But it does seem that if it retains value for at least 15 days based on previous trends, now we're going to see another induced momentum rally.

And the momentum rally is going to be dramatic, especially if we get that Robin Hood edition or even just talks of Robin Hood potentially adding it down the road. Now, of course, the downside is always well, if attention dies off and it doesn't retain value, what happens, then Well, then you have to restart momentum from a lower level. Doesn't mean it can't happen. It happened after the pre-early October rallies.

it pumped and dumped, went back down to a pre-pump level and then it came back up. However, if you want to make an argument based on this cycle of momentum and a fast return, it has to be based on retaining value at this stage. Okay, Lastly, what is the next sheep coin? Dogecoin was a currency mocking Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at the time. And then Shebo was a currency made to be the doge killer.

And now there's a ton of smaller currencies trying to take away some of that attention from Sheba and be the next Sheba. And it often does feel like a race to the bottom where a lot of the attention and capital is spread around until nothing runs the way that you'd wanted to. However, there's also the argument that at very, very very small market caps, it's a lot easier again to multiply. Outside of dog based currencies, you also have the Squid Game Crypto.

Essentially, it's a play to earn currency where you pay an entry fee to play games from the show and 10 of it goes to developers and the rest is put back into the reward pool, making the games more lucrative the more people that play. I don't think that the punishments for losing are quite as severe as the ones from the show, but my take is that the latest trend is simply that a lot of people are realizing that money follows attention, which follows culture. People complain all the time. What are these things running? These have no inherent value? Well, they do have value.

It's called attention. You may not yourself see value in buying something like a Flokie Enu or a squid game currency, but if you recognize the emphasis of floki in our meme culture thanks to Elon Musk's dog named Floki, or you recognize Squid Game as an incredibly popular show, you may buy these coins anticipating other people to buy and after you. which creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. And then once it rallies enough, you start getting more huddlers and then eventually you get a lot of people fo' mowing in at the top rewarding the earlier buyers and nobody ever knows how long it's going to go.

So people keep buying in, expecting them to be the early adopters. until eventually. Obviously people get stuck bag holding, but some continue on to future cycles. I mean, Sheba Coin continued on several cycles already.

Dogecoin had several cycles. I think that if you have an interest in studying trans human psychology and momentum, then it's very, very fun to play some of these runners because they can run so quickly. The key though is making sure that you're locking in profits during the uptrend and you're having a concrete entry and exit plan. Now they can move against you very, very quickly to the point that you can't even get out at a good point.

But that's part of the risk factor. and that's why I'm saying violent risk management needs to be happening and acceptance of this being more speculative capital and I'm not one to Virtue signal. A lot of people say you should never touch these because they run up really, really huge. Lots of people make money and then lots of people lose money.

Hey, you know how this plays right. You know exactly what's going to happen. It's going to run up huge and then it's going to dump massively At what point that's going to happen is definitely up in the air, so why not if you want to play it? If you have an interest in it, take some capital, find good entry points, do your own due diligence on it, and then risk manage the capital when you're profitable, and of course cut losses quickly if you're not. Anyways, folks that caps off today's video.

If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us below or join us on Zip Trader Circle. And lastly, if you'd like to learn how to build your account, maybe taking some time over the weekend to complete some lessons and then starting Monday market open fresh with our daily morning briefings would be the way to go. I'll go ahead and put a link to Ziptraderu. Go ahead and check out the program, watch our video and see if you like what we offer.

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Have a good one and I'll see you tomorrow.