We got a Big Jobs report missed today when that data came out and growth greatly missed expectations and actually led to an increase in unemployment instead of a drop in unemployment. It got people thinking that hey, maybe the Fed's not going to be done with their easy money policies and thus early in the morning you saw Bond yields, tank and money flow and attack and growth, and you saw it all broadened out later on in the day. But very good day for pretty much every indices To cap off the week. with the Dow, up, the Snp, up the Nasdaq, up Arc funds, and Kryptos, we got our little Bitcoin up a decent amount.

The coin of Bit is performing today, but in terms of this Jobs report, I really want to take some time to talk about what's going on, and it's definitely not an underestimate to say that this is a huge jobs miss. The whole idea Wall Street was pushing was that jobs were on this huge, outpaced uptrend and that you were wrong if you were assuming that we weren't going to have this massive month over month over month across the board, sector recovery that would lead to out-of-control inflation, and today was the first sign that they were wrong on that. I mean, you look at the massive job losses in April 2020 and March 2020 from last year, and then you look at the incredibly slow pace of growth after the vaccine over the last few months, especially the terrible numbers in April, and you see that Wall Street's expectations that this was going to go straight up has been a huge huge miss. But still folks, this is pretty much in line with what the Fed's been saying and why they've wanted to keep interest rates low, The whole idea of the massive sell-off in growth, and the whole idea of these massive projections for how to control inflation was that the Fed was wrong, and that we were actually going to see a massive massive bounce everywhere.

But nonetheless, the immediate reaction today of money pouring into certain sectors and out of other sectors and then eventually just reversing back the other way really says a lot about the market condition that we're in. It's frustrating because we're on the wrong train track right now. A track of does this jobs report look good? Is it too good? Is it bad? That's good? What's consumer spending like? Are we going to get out of control inflation? What is the Fed going to do if it doesn't give us our easy money policies We need to scream out of the market and that's not a sustainable train to be on? Why? Because you can't be constantly rooting for people to lose their jobs or to have slow growth in the economy in order for your stocks to continue going up just because you want the Fed to continue their easy money policies. And while catalysts like today say that we actually do have slowing economic recovery, we actually do have some stagnation in terms of the jobs market and some sector issues.

While that says that, yes, indeed, there is some more track for this train to run on, and that the Fed needs to keep helping the market like they've been saying. The truth is that eventually we have to get a whole new track. We have to jump tracks. We need a market that's not taking us from 2020 to the post pandemic, but something that's taking us from the post pandemic to the disruptive economy of the future.

And I think that ultimately that has to come in the form of proof that inflation is indeed transitory and that the Fed isn't going to have to go in and choke the market with really, really high interest rates that Wall Street is projecting. But in the meantime I'll make two projections. If you want to bounce in the growth sector and you want a continued rally in a lot of other sectors of the market, well you better bet that we're going to have a continuing slow trend. Out of this recovery, we're going to have continually murky jobs numbers.

We're going to have a consumer confidence that starts stagnating. Better hope that some sectors stay down so that the Fed has to continue its strong, easy money policies in order to keep everything else running. Recovery is a lot slower than Wall Street is expected. Then you're going to have a lot more money pouring into some of the more risky sectors because they're going to be betting that hey, the Fed's going to keep their policies or number two and this is the more painful but better option over the long run.

Number two: we actually get a very strong economic recovery. Not something that goes out of hand where inflation gets out of control, but one that causes transitory inflation like the Fed has been projecting. One that gets people's jobs back when it gets consumer spending up, gets companies and people flowing. That's going to be the more painful option because people are going to be freaking out while that inflation is going up, but afterwards, if it's not out of hand, you're going to have a much stronger and healthy uptrend and we would have jumped tracks.

It would have gotten off that 2020 track. The first option: you get more of a bounce in the short term and the medium term, but over the long run it's painful. And the second option, it's a lot healthier for the economy. It might be painful in the short term and maybe the medium term, but in the long term, it's a lot lot better.

And today's market pretty much suggested a compromise between those two. Everyone was more or less making money today because we still have enough evidence that the economy is on an uptrend, pushing the dow and broader S P up, but also we got evidence that it's not on so high of an uptrend, so out of control of an uptrend that the Fed has to crank down on interest rates. So it also pushed up Nasdaq and small caps, and hopefully we continue to see that sort of level of compromise. But what's really going to happen in the next few months of the recovery? Nobody really knows because there's a lot of moving pieces, but we'll be talking about exactly what the Jobs Report told us in just a minute.

But the only thing that I ask of you in return for this video is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe either. Okay, let's go ahead and look at the numbers. So where did jobs come in from in April? Well, Leisure and Hospitality was the big winner. That's good.

Obviously a sector that had the most to gain after its massive bludgeon last year, and there's still a lot more to gain here, as well as larger gatherings like activities and live events. haven't bounced back nearly as much as they can as we leave the pandemic. The more people we get vaccinated, the more people that see those Cdc guidelines that are getting expansive and more and more expansive every single day. The more people are going to be going to these events and the more jobs are going to be created in that.

we had government bouncing back a lot, with many natural parks and government offices rehiring as well as a change of administration picking up a lot of new hiring in its own. Probably a large chunk of that was also schools reopening and getting back into classrooms. In-person instruction dramatically reduced the need for staff during the pandemic. There's also a lot more room here to grow as a lot of states like California still have large percentages of their classes at home doing distance learning.

Still, I would also expect more government jobs as the infrastructure bill gets pushed forward. That's also going to create a lot of private sector jobs as well as the government hires out contractors to do a lot of the bidding for the infrastructure bill. Whether that gets passed and whether it gets skimmed down dramatically is yet to be determined. But here's the thing.

if you look at jobs lost and this was really the problem, start seeing really where the damage is coming from: Retail Trade down 15 300 jobs Manufacturing down 18 000 jobs transportation and warehouses down 74 000 jobs Construction flat. We have a booming real estate market, but construction isn't gaining any jobs. We are at near zero interest rates. In April saw good weather conditions across the United States.

Good weather conditions, low interest rates. Those are historically great things for both real estate and construction. Why is it that construction is lagging? Why is it that it's not adding any jobs? Well, supply chain issues. There's a huge shortage of many of the different raw components and raw materials that construction workers need in order to build that manufacturers need.

There's also a huge shift in demand. post pandemic, there was a lot more people at home ordering things, their services and goods to the house. Well, that's changing. Thus, you're seeing a lot of changes in couriers and messengers.

The transportation industry is changing, reverting back to what it was before. It's probably going to end up in a higher average than it was pretty pandemic, but still, it's reverting, demand is going down. There's also a shortage of skilled workers, which actually makes it hard for companies to hire in the first place. If you can't find a worker for your job, well, you're not going to be able to hire somebody, so numbers are down.

There's also a lot of workers that are still stuck at home because their kids are doing distance learning or they're worried about the virus still, or in some cases, extended unemployment benefits actually exceed the potential income folks could be making from working. Some folks for various reasons are making the judgment call to say hey, Okay, well, I have to take care of my kids. There's some risk of going out into the workplace, and uh, the unemployment benefits are still benefiting my family. So with all those together, some people are still lagging into re-entering into the market.

Maybe they haven't found the right job? Maybe there's just not enough time to take care of the family. Maybe the income opportunity from staying at home is still higher than the income opportunity from going out and getting a different job. And of course, many families need help. We definitely should be helping them.

I'm not saying we shouldn't, but what I am saying is that from an economic perspective, these are different reasons that people may not be entering that labor market again. And I think that you look at this data, you have to think, okay, wait a second. We got some sectors of the labor market that companies still have had trouble trying to unlock. We have sectors of the economy with spotty growth rates, and we have some sectors getting bludgeoned because of supply chain issues.

And this is all with the vaccine. So perhaps the economic growth to the point of overheating isn't exactly as much of a sure thing as Wall Street expected. I'm in the boat that this bad month is not going to become a huge trend, but it certainly is suggestive that the economic bounce isn't going to be as overwhelming as we thought and likely will be a lot more sporadic. You think about it that way.

This tells us the hey, this maybe actually some evidence for what the Fed is doing. Maybe Wall Street was just a bit too quick to roll their eyes at the Fed's policy of keeping interest rates low, maybe drastically raising interest rates isn't necessary in the near future, and maybe the Fed just doesn't want to over correct inflation in a society that definitely doesn't need that correction right now, and a society that still has a lot of recovery to go. Pretty much all I wanted to talk about today. It's been a long week and I hope everyone is looking forward to the weekend.

Have a good one and I'll see you on Sunday and of course Quick Plug! This video is sponsored by Ziptraderu. Let's be real. A lot of folks struggle with growing their account because they don't have a clear process. They just kind of hop from one strategy or one headline to the other, but similar to an exercise program.

Oftentimes if you don't have a clear structure, you're going to be very, very demotivated. You're going to quit quickly, and you're definitely not going to have the confidence to stick it out. You're going to feel lost. So the goal of Zip Trader You is of course to provide you with a step-by-step structure and also allow you to work with our private chat and be briefed every morning on what is happening and where the stock battlefields lie.

Anyways, folks, if you are interested, I'll go ahead and put the link below and you can watch the intro video where this charming gentleman will explain everything you need to know if you want to take the leap and join us. I also just added a coupon code battlefield 75 if you want to get 75 off before checkout. If you're wondering what broker to trade these stocks and cryptos on, Well, we like to send new traders over to Weeble and they are offering two free stocks and they have tons of great resources on the broker for you to become the excellent stock and doge trader that you'd ever want to be. That sounded really awkward, but it's true.

I'll put the link below, folks anyways. folks that caps off the video have a great day and I'll see you in the next one.