Folks, the FED is triggering a global recession Bloomberg Reported this morning when asked if the Fed was more likely to err on the side of over tightening, not tightening enough or tightening just about right. 75 percent said over tightening 75 said this would result in worse growth and unemployment than necessary. And for the first time, a combined 95 percent of economists are expecting either a recession or a hard Landing. In the next 24 months, only five percent are expecting a soft Landing that the Fed and many analysts have been praying and hoping for in this video.

I'm going to walk you through very violently what economists are projecting the FED is going to do next and what it's going to do to the overall economy. And then we're going to walk you through the biggest earnings from this week and a few trends that I'm noticing things that you need to be aware of or else you're going to be caught off guard. I will put all the time stamps down below and we will get right to work. After a word from our sponsor folks, the average 60 40 portfolio of stocks and bonds is down a gut-wrenching 34 percent.

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Now back to the content. Okay, so the next Fomc meeting is on Wednesday November 2nd, which is expected to take us up another 75 basis points to the 375 to 400 range and then the next meeting December 14th. Probabilities are torn between us going up another 25 basis points or 50 basis points, but what people are really debating is the terminal right here: the highest target range The FED is going to be willing to go and that is expected to be hit somewhere around the March 22nd meeting. Right now, the highest probability for that meeting is factored in the Target rate to be in a range of 475 to 500 basis points.

but the upper ranges are growing steadily as well. And this is because markets are starting to expect the FED to air on the side of overdoing rate hikes instead of underdoing them. Quote: With the FED facing the choice of either doing too much or too little, the members will likely opt to do too much, with the goal being to avoid the Persistence of Inflation Volcker confronted from the 1970 70s. Now you have to remember that the FED is essentially taking shots into the dark and the FED has a very bad track record with doing that successfully.

The impact of the decisions that they make at each and every single meeting is not felt for about six to nine months afterwards. So when they go and they look at current data and they try to decide whether or not their hikes are working or aren't working well, the fact of the matter is that that current data may not even be relevant for what's going to be happening six to nine months from now, right? Because of the lagging effect this week, this coming week where the Fed's going to be meeting, well, they have to make a decision. Looking at September's data and asking themselves Okay, well, September's data shows this and that. Well, what does that mean for six months later, out to March So if September is hot, does that mean that March is also going to be hotter? And then that's how they make their decision.

But of course that's a very, very flawed method. and this is a key distinction because when you're asking that question of oh, is the Fed going to air on doing too much or too little? Well, that's the entire game. The FED always has to choose one extreme or the other because we have no data for what's going to happen. In six months, we have only have what just happened.

We already know that the FED of six months ago 12 months ago and especially 18 months ago was completely off the ball and that's what's gotten us into the current crisis. So now the FED must be looking at these current numbers and saying, okay, Well, our main goal is simply to make sure this doesn't happen again and that we aren't behind the curve again and that we are over attacking just to make sure that we don't get caught off guard. Once we head into another six months or another eight months, or another 12 months and you look at the specifics of the survey, well, economists think that rates are going to have to go higher in literally every single meeting than they did just back in September Why is this? Well, because economists saw inflation worsen after that September survey and thus all are coming to the conclusion and the expectation that we can expect a much more aggressive fed Federal Reserve Officials will maintain their resolutely hawkish stance next week, laying the groundwork for interest rates reaching five percent by March 2023 moves that seem likely to lead to a U.S and Global recession Economist Surveyed by Bloomberg said. So heading into this next Fomc Meaning, the most important thing that markets are going to be watching isn't so much.

How much is the Fed going to be raising rates? At this one specific meeting, it's almost guaranteed to be 75 basis points, but rather, what is the terminal rate going to be? Is it going to be at that 475 to 5 range? Is it going to be above five? You may remember we got a Dot Plot at that last meeting that showcased rates go up into 2022 and 2023, peaking at about five percent as an upper range, and then going back down very, very slowly into 2024, 2025, and in the long run. So it's becoming more likely that this thought plot goes even higher. And that's what markets are going to be watching next week. And if it goes higher.

Uh, this bear Market rally that we're having is going to be very, very transitory and not in the Powell meaning of the word transitory. Unfortunately, lots and lots of panic. But speaking of panic, this was a disaster of an earnings week. Let's start with Meta.

So Metastock went into earnings already in horrible shape. The stock had fallen off a cliff, but after earnings came out, it dumped another 23-ish percent, now down around 74 from where it was just at the beginning of last. September It's now trading at the lowest price since 2016. this was a trillion dollar plus stock last year that's now worth about 260 billion.

And why has the stock been brutally beat down? Mainly because Meta or really I should say Facebook Instagram and WhatsApp they're advertisement businesses. They're slowing dramatically. Advertisers went to them in droves because they could reach their billions of users. But now advertisers are like, wait, the customers that we can reach.

they have lots and less disposable income. They are less and less willing to buy our products. So why are we going to go to Meta and pay money to advertise the customers that we're not interested in attracting because they don't have any money for us. There's also the fact that Apple made it a lot harder to track their users and thus add tracking and targeted ads have become a lot harder to do.

Facebook Thinks that this could cost them up to 10 billion dollars this year. Meanwhile, Meta, of course is dedicating themselves to losing billions for their new Metaverse vision. Its Core Business is being decimated fast. yet they're investing tons and tons of money in building out this new business that may not pay off for 10, 15, 20 plus years.

and investors in this market condition aren't having any of that. Let's go over to Amazon was on. Amazon Inc Shocking. Wall Street project at the slowest holiday quarter growth in the company's history.

sending the shares tumbling about 11 Friday Morning Core e-commerce business has come under pressure from changing chopping habits from the boom scene over the pandemic and a consumer with less disposable income. This is exactly what we've been warning about for quite a long time. Disposable income and consumers personal savings have been evaporated month after month, quarter after quarter literally for the last year, and analysts keep saying over and over again, no, magically, everything's going to be fine. This is a great economy.

Great, Very, very strong No, no, no, and Amazon has been playing defense all year, not offense. The world's largest online retailer had spent this year adjusting to a sharp slowdown in e-commerce growth as Shoppers resumed pre-pandemic habits Amazon delayed Warehouse openings, froze hiring in its retail group, and shut down in experimental projects. Some investors had hoped the company's commanding market share in the US and Europe the massive scale of its Logistics business and the cost cutting would insulate Amazon from slower and slow in consumer spending. However, it has not.

Consumer spending has destroyed Amazon's bottom line: Cloud Business is also decelerating. This is what the reaction looks like when you have the biggest companies in the world trading like penny stocks. That's how you know you're in dire times. Let's go over to Alphabet Alphabet This week reported the first ever drop in YouTube year-over-year ad sales, which was their bread and butter.

Overall, they reported their fifth consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth across all platforms. The stock is now down around 36 percent from last year's Heights Microsoft Also, very disappointing Quote: The core E-commerce business has come under pressure from changing shopping habits from the boom seen over the pandemic and a consumer with less disposable income. Again, with that less disposable income line. Intel Posted a very, very deep drop in quarterly earnings hurt by the Contracting market for computers that its chips go into.

Now, keep in mind when you see these earnings come out and continue coming out over the the next few weeks, some of them are going to be awful, some of them are just going to be bad, Some of them are just going to start projecting a downtrend in overall growth and then a reduction in overall bottom line. But keep in mind that as you continue to see these reports, these are the best reports that we're going to see for the foreseeable future. The Feds rate hikes in current trajectory they haven't even started really being factored into the economy yet, and the Fed's not even done raising rates, nor do we even have any sort of agreement on a solid terminal rate that can't just be switched if you have another hot. CPI This is a quarter where most of the Feds raid hikes that they're going to do in this cycle have not been felt at all, and a quarter where GDP growth went up, so all of these companies that you saw get destroyed on earnings.

This is what they are doing in a supposedly healthy economy. Imagine what happens when things get substantially worse and the economic bludgeon becomes a lot more undeniable into Q1 Q2 and Q3 of 2023.. Anyway folks, another cheery video let us know what you think down below. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us below or join us in Zip Creator Circle I Will put a link to our sponsor today Master Works Down below make sure to take some time to learn how you can invest in art.

and if you want to join us in Zip Trader you make sure to check out that link down below as well. Have a good one folks and we will see you in the next video.