Okay folks, so we need to talk violently about this massive S-pac runner that popped out of nowhere and went up hundreds of percentage points. why or rather, how we found it in the pre-market before it ran. Then we need to discuss why there may be more behind the scenes going on than meets the eye with the stock and what you need to know about that number Two, We're gonna be talking about a certain data set that's pointing to something very, very interesting happening in the Bitcoin market, which may actually indicate why Bitcoin is cooling off right now. And the only thing that I ask in return for all this is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe either.

Okay folks, so in this morning in the pre-market when I was writing the briefing, I came across ticker symbol Dwack. It had popped up in the after hours yesterday on news of potentially merging with Trump's media company, popped to just under 20 bucks, got cut in half, and then by the time I found it, it was slowly increasing from lows and it hit about 12 bucks, which to me suggested a strong likelihood of a rebound rally. I felt that media coverage on this would be huge from both sides of the aisle. Everybody knows this individual gets a ton of headlines and attention.

That attention combined with the small S-pac market cap, and combined with the fact that we're in a market environment where people very, very much buy things based on their sentiment, I thought that was a solid combination to suggest a strong likelihood of a high play. And boy did it get hyped. It went from like 12 to 52, which is insane. And obviously just to be clear, the briefing wasn't based on any political views, it was just based on the setup itself and I look at it as I would look at any catalyst Play: This is a hyper runner that runs up based on everybody paying attention to it and the small market cap of it.

That means play the hype itself. But don't let the hype play you. Now again, I'm not one for politics. I didn't vote for Trump or binding in the last election I actually wrote in Kathy Wood, but still Observationally speaking, this is a very, very interesting and unique dynamic with the Warren Fever that we've had pretty much all year.

With this dynamic of hedge funds versus retail traders one side short, one side long and the dedication on both sides to not back down, you may start seeing that happen more and more on a political basis as well. People either diamond handing or shorting stocks based on whether or not it's a political party they agree with. I'm already hearing some folks say, you know, watch packs. They don't win anymore.

They've been losing since like February. We need some more S Pack first people. And if Trump comes into the S-pac game, maybe he can make S-pax great again. A lot of people already are saying that this is the best S-pac since like Abe Lincoln, then you have the other side there saying hey, Dwack is being pumped by Russian hedge funds who are literally just executing a ton of trades through dark pools and trying to screw everybody over.

Putin himself could be sitting in the Kremlin with his Robin Hood account. Yes, that would be the app he would use 100 percent. He takes a shot of vodka and swipes up and he's got a million shares of Dwack. Don't worry though, the Sec will look into it.

but observationally speaking, whether you love the guy or you hate the guy, or you're indifferent, he does have a substantial following of folks who have a strong disdain for big tech and for a lot of the traditional forms of social media, and many of whom I wouldn't be surprised would both use and invest in a platform that that aims to be an alternative to those standard platforms. A lot of stocks run up specifically on sentiment driven by persona and ideology. You look at something like even Tesla. How much of Tesla's market cap do you think has been specifically driven by the persona that Elon Musk gives out, the ideology that he gives out, and the vision that he gives out.

You may or may not agree with that vision, but if there's a sizable amount of people that do, that creates a lot of shareholder value. And so I think. observationally speaking, if you're somebody who has been frustrated with the way that big tech has handled things and you're also somebody who likes the persona of Trump, then guess what? You're probably going to be a lot more likely to invest in this platform as well as use it and as media covers it, more and more people are going to find out about it, and I think that a large layer of why it's running up right now is specifically because you have a lot of Momentum Traders that are anticipating that. We are in this original pump stage where people are finding out about it and Momentum Traders are anticipating more people finding out about it and people are finding out about it from other people finding out about it and buying in.

And it's also true that shares to borrow are basically non-existent right now, creating this dynamic where short sellers can't really attack the uptrend, which is all causing this euphoria rally that pumped massively, but will end massively as well. Outside of that though, in the long run, once we start hearing more details, I wouldn't be surprised if people start buying stocks based more around their political ideology, trying to throw money in the direction of developing things that they care about and see value in in the political system. I also wouldn't be surprised to see political candidates use things like Nfts, for example, to raise money for their initiatives outside of campaign finance laws or even structure some of their initiatives through S packs like he has. Okay, moving on.

So after the recent breakout, Bitcoin is finding some cooling off. I want to point you over to the Btc funding rates. This can give you a good idea of the amount of leverage being added and in what direction during each time period. Keep in mind that leverage can be used either on the upside or on the downside if you're shorting something.

That's on the downside. if you're buying something with excess margin loan funds, that's on the upside. You often see hedge funds or other traders buy Bitcoin and stocks really using margin during upcycles, trying to celebrate the moves and the sentiment that they see coming and then short them. On the downside, they have no conviction whatsoever.

It's all about how can I accelerate the movement in the present? And looking at the chart when it's above zero, you can look at it as rapidly increasing demand for longed leverage, and when it's below zero, it's increasing the demand for short sellers looking for leverage. So negative is short sellers? positive is buyers. The yellow line represents Bitcoin's price. Now, if you remember when we pulled this up during the Bitcoin sell-off in the summer where we went from essentially strong, positive leveraging back in April and May and then during the downtrend massive short seller leveraging as some of the longs from the prior period got liquidated and Shorts were emboldened halfway through the downtrend to keep accelerating it and then mostly stagnation for months and months with some short sellers trying to continue to press it down, but overall, mostly stagnation.

obviously. during this period, the goal was, hey, well, Bitcoins going down. Can we get this down as close to zero as possible? Let's create a ton of bag holders. We need this down and unfortunately it had already gone down half and they got way too greedy and they kept trying to short.

It didn't work and again, in July, bitcoin prices started picking up again. short sellers again started piling on expecting to get this down. They're like, oh, I'm licking my chops. I couldn't get it down in the 30s or the 29th.

getting up to 35 40 45, it's time to pile on. Unfortunately for them, their bluffs were called violently and Bitcoin went on a long run into September. In September, positive leverage finally increased. Some shorts continued battling into China Flood, but the most extreme trend change for leverage happened in October.

A few days into October, a lot of the leveraged players finally realized that, hey, wait a second. It's been months and months and we have an overall bullish trend. Why don't we stop screwing ourselves over and start logging this and accelerate that trend so that we can stop getting blown up on all these damn positions. They stopped playing around.

Positive leverage increased dramatically and consistently, and they accelerated the uptrend up to 66. And quite frankly, if you look at the total chart, that was the most dramatic positive leverage increase that we've seen since April. And may you bring up Ethereum, you see relatively the same thing. Well, what am I saying? Well, I'm saying that after six months of hedge funds getting it wrong on this, they finally started piling it up huge on margin in the beginning of October, accelerating the uptrend these last couple of weeks.

But if you actually look at how much they've piled on here, the elevating factor of that? Well, the leverage hasn't taken a breath like it has in any of the other periods you've seen Longed positive leverage consistently outpace shorted leverage for the better part of the month. And yes, there are periods with stronger levels of positive leverage and slightly lower levels of positive leverage. But if you really look at the data here, this has been a very, very one-sided rally with shorts not being able to push the envelope at all in terms of leveraging the opposite direction. The increase of leverage long so outpace the leveraged shorts that they don't even show up on the chart.

So you've seen higher and higher peaks. We love Bitcoin. It's great, but when you have Momentum Traders on top of Bitcoin, you can't have these higher and higher peaks come out without giving it a little bit of room to breathe. And hey, I was thinking you get at least one more breakout to a more noticeable significant level like 69 or 70.

But I think that what you saw today was simply some of the more profitable leverage that piled in the last three weeks. Deciding to go and say, okay, I'm going to lock in my profits, I'm going to deleverage. They made the calculation that hey, Bitcoin is going to breathe when it makes the next level. So why don't I go and lock in my profits before that happens, and then inadvertently, they made it breathe themselves? Quite frankly, there's a lot of risk managers out there that look at this historical fear and greed chart and say, hey, wait a second We are heading very rapidly up to a peak of greed.

Other risk managers may be waiting for higher levels, why not just start locking in profits, lower down to preemptively seal in our massive gains. But there's also the case point that if you give Bitcoin the opportunity to take a damn breath and not let it just keep out pacing itself day after day, week after week. what happens? While Bitcoin goes down a slight amount, it starts stagnating. For a couple weeks peak fear and greed goes down.

Bitcoin has declared a higher level, and then during the next rally, it's a lot more sustainable. If you look at Bitcoin from April 2020 to January 2021, it hit peak greed during an uptrend and then would breathe slightly for a period of time, allowing the euphoria cycle to settle in and then it would be primed for the next breakout rally. Both trends that are allowed to take a breath are almost always more sustainable than bull trends that go on uninhibited. So I say, hey, let the leveraged players take some of their profits, Let us declare a more sustainable leverage so that the vast majority of Bitcoin traders who are surveyed to be holding it, they can feel more confident at the higher level and then force the hedge funds who are buying and selling this to pay up at higher prices.

Every minor and major cycle of boom and bust for Bitcoin has always led to strengthening of Bitcoin over the long run. People more than anything with Bitcoin want to see value preservation, and what they look for during down cycles is how far it goes down, what level of value it retains, and the higher the level it retains, the more people are willing to pile on after that value, the more speculators are like, okay, well, hey, we've declared value at thirty thousand. Forty thousand Fifty thousand. So if it's trading below that, we're definitely going to buy it up to that point.

And if we're in a hype cycle, we know that, hey, well, that's the level of support we're gonna pile on. We're gonna leverage. We're gonna rally it up as fast as we can, and it creates a parameter for how useful the currency actually is in effect other than the speculation tool that it's used for by the leveraged players. So quite frankly, what I'm saying is if it needs to breathe to get out to new highs, I would say hey, let it breathe Anyways, folks, that's it for today.

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When I buy something, you better bet that I get every single dollar worth out of it, and I expect the same from you. Also, if you're wondering what broker to trade these stocks on, well, we like to send new traders over to Public.com Ziptrader and I'll go ahead and put the link below. You'll get a free stock valued up to 70 dollars when you use that link. Anyways, have a good one and I'll see you in the next video.