The global economy continues to burn, the beer bug continues to spread. The U.s. takes even more drastic measures to stimulate the economy, and traders make a killing trading against the market with VIX and S QQQ So Charlie When is it that we will see a bottom? What company will have the Cure and when will I be able to buy toilet paper again? Well, we'll be answering two of these three questions in this video. and as always, the only thing that I ask in return is that you hit that ravishing like button.

and then of course, after you hit that button, make sure to back up about six feet away from the screen. Trader distancing is quite important, folks. Okay, so to start, a ton of people are quite confused as to why the government's interventions into the market aren't really doing much. For example, the Feds 1.5 trillion dollar injection or the passing of the beer Bug relief bill, or the promised stimulus packages or different state by state regulations in post Hawaii Is it that none of these things have caused the market to stabilize well? As always, Let me make a overly simplistic analogy: Think of the economy as you would a glass of water during a bull market.

It is overflowing and during a bear market, it has dumped out half of its water. But you see, the beer bug has taken the glass of water and thrown it against the wall, and so now it's mostly cracked and there's only a small portion of glass left at the bottom to hold remaining water. And this is the state of our current economy. so it really doesn't matter how much water the government decides to pour into the glass, it just can't hold as much as it used to because it's cracked.

So you should not be asking the question, when will this glass be refilled, but rather, when will we get a new glass But Charlie Search whorls. If the glass is broken, why are we still pouring water into it? Well, because keeping sub water in the glass is better than having no water in the glass and relating this back to reality the stock Market. It doesn't really care about intervention because the fundamentals of the underlying economy are still the same. Governments can definitely help keep the glass full of water, but there's always so much water can hold.

Now, as long as this beard bug crisis continues, our economy will be at a standstill. For example, pouring money into airlines that can't operate isn't all of a sudden going to make them profitable. just like pouring money into the American people isn't all of a sudden going to make it safe enough for them to go back to work. But of course, these things are still very important to add water to aka add money to so that we can keep them alive so that in the future and we're able to, we can then build a new glass.

But the other thing to keep in mind is that the stock market itself isn't just representative of the glass itself, but rather the idea of the glass. It isn't just representative of how the economy's doing in the moment, but also how the economy is going to do in the future. For example, the S&P 500 started crashing on February 21st several weeks before the U.s. really started taking this seriously, and several weeks before it even had an impact on the overall US economy.

But today, a little under a month later, cities around the world are shuttered and people are locked in their apartments such as your friend Charlie who lives in San Francisco But Charlie Why would the market crash? Before any of this happened? At this point, there were no economic problems. Everything was going around perfectly well, because again, the stock market represents not just the glass currently, but also the idea of the glass going into the future and investors were anticipating the glass being chucked at the wall by the beer bug. Remember, market valuation is a combination of what's happening in the present and what's expected to happen into the future. So when you have a very, very bleak future, doesn't matter how great the glasses or how full the glass is in the present.

If it's going to break next month, then hey, investors are going to pick that up and sell it. But at the same time, investors know that we still know how to rebuild the glass. We still know how to make a new glass. They just don't know when so they don't know when the markets going to recover.

So the question now becomes, when will we be able to build a new glass This is another way of saying, when will we find the bottom? The best way to break this down is by looking at previous recessions and shout out to: Danielle Ross Nd for putting this picture together and sharing it. This is a great graphic, but here's the great graph of all of the previous S&P 500 sell offs together and you can see the current 2020 craft compared to all of the others. They show the year and then the centage decline. The most important thing to notice is the length of time these recessions went on.

That's because you can see that while for example, this 1980 crash took over a year to crash 27% the 2020 crash has taken only a few weeks to crash 29% And if you compare this crash to all of the other crashes in modern history, this one has made it to negative 29% quite faster than all of the others. The only one that comes even a little close is the 1929 crash during the Great Depression And yes, this crash so far has maybe 2008 crash looked like a pathetic joke. But why, Why is it that this crash has been so much quicker than the others? Well, the big reason is that the reality and the depth of the situation kicked in extremely quickly just a few weeks ago. Again, the beer bug was a passing thought in American Society.

It was a passing thought in the rest of the world. now. many people, including myself, are locked down in some of the major cities in the world and some of the biggest countries. and if you look at the potential for future economic tragedy, this one blows out of the ballpark.

Other recessions, if you think about this logically. during the recession and Bear Market around 2008, for example, there was still a workforce that could be tapped into. There were people there that were looking for jobs, right? We have people. We have talent that can be hired.

But during this recession, much of the workforce isn't accessable because it's not safe. So it doesn't matter how low you make the interest rates, how much you lower taxes, how much money you send to people at the end of the day. if you can't tap into the workforce, tons of corporations and tons of small businesses are going to go out of well business. But of course this is just on the supply side.

Let's talk about the demand side in most recessions. Of course, demand is lowered because people have less money to spend, But during a recession like this, demand will be lowered. not just because people are wanting to save money, but also because people want to stay home in order to protect their health. But combine these things together and you're in the perfect storm.

A storm that's almost impossible to get out until we fix the underlying crisis which is of course the beer bug. but Charlie you Negative Nancy You need to be more of a positive Paul and give us some good news. Well okay, here's the good news. Since the market has react as quickly to the extent of this problem, it's more likely that we'll hit the bottom sooner rather than later as investors pre factor in economic losses ahead of time because again, when it comes to the stock market, they're reacting to things that are going to be happening down the road.

So if they factor in a terrible, terrible economic tragedy that they think is going to happen over the next couple months and then it does happen over the next couple months, there's not much more downward to go. But at the same time, we don't know how long this could go on and there's still tons of other variables. There's a big difference from this. Taking one month to fix versus taking 18 months to fix a month of downtime would mean insane damages and tons of companies going out of business.

but 18 months of downtime would be just catastrophic. It would dramatically change the economic landscape perhaps forever. But regardless of what happens as traders, we have tons of opportunities to Train off of and we're going to continue to present them to you. What are these opportunities that you say we could take advantage of? And how can you say that? Well, let's take for example: SH Fix.

Ever since we called out fix, it rose from forty five dollars to over one thousand dollars. We originally pointed it out here, and then we reiterated it here here, here and here. And we're going to continue to reiterate this as long as it's relevant, but fixes our volatility ticker. And it essentially trades well when we have strong volatility and poorly when we have stabilizing prices.

Now, since the overall stock market is quite unstable, VIX has done quite well, but on days where it goes up, on days where there's more hope, it tends to do worse. But for folks who don't like the high cap price of Schmitz, it is a little bit expensive for a lot of people with really small accounts. So you can also trade you Vxy which is I think a hundred dollars or so or a vixy which is around $50 The only thing is that their leverage movements aren't as great when they go up, just because the other ones have been so overextended that they tend to multiply faster. but it's still the same thing in terms of direction.

They still profit the same way. And of course, on days where we don't have an upper direction in these, you can always trade key triple Q which will provide you great opportunities in terms of the movements upward on upward direction days. But of course, there are also some great opportunities in terms of news catalyst plays and anticipating demand with different news events that are happening every single day. And it's really shocking to see how many opportunities we're getting there.

For example, everybody knows that there's a mass shortage in the United States and there's a huge amount of demand. so very low supply, Very high demand. So any company that announces that they have masks and they're going to sell them, we know, hey, bullish sign. Even better yet, if they're a really small company that doesn't have any profitability because at the end of the day, if Apple started selling masks, it wouldn't really matter that much.

But if something like this hoots worth nothing, all of a sudden starts selling masks, the stock price is going to skyrocket. So when Nby Today reported that they'd be offering masks, you could expect a high surge in sales. And likewise, this caused a three hundred ninety four percent increase in price. But this wasn't a quick gap up either.

A lot of people complain that we have quick gap ups, but this wasn't one. There are several main periods of running up that folks could catch intraday by Nanak confirmation and selling out at validation. but Charlie This is, in hindsight, you dumb dong. And that's why you can't just buy in because you see a news article.

You can't just buy in because you make our hypothesis as to the demand or the supply and how things are shifting. You can't just do that. You can't react to news. What you want to do is you want to see the news, analyze the news, and then see how the stock price reacts.

If the stock price gives you a good set up like a strong confirmation and a high probability trade, then you're like, okay, well, I'm going to take advantage of it I'm going to violently exploit that. But the point is, you can do wonders by anticipating demand. For example, food delivery services like a PRN have done great now that more people are stuck at home and this is one that we put on our nightly Zip Trade historical Watch list. Make sure that you joins a trader circle which is our free Facebook group so that you don't miss out on these opportunities.

But the point of the matter is that what we do at Zip Trader is we play it off news. but we wait for the price action to confirm the news first. And one thing that I will caution you against doing is falling in love with stocks. So many people they see a stock like oh my god it went up yesterday and then they research into it and then because of their bias.

all of a sudden they start feeling like this stock is like that special stock like oh I love you I love you but falling in love with the stock is pathetic and that's not a strategy that I accept from anybody that follows my videos as traders. It's our job to look at all the BS news that all of the BS press releases that these companies are releasing and then trade off the hype that other traders are buying into. Let them lose money and think that this stock is the next best thing sliced bread at Zip Trader. We never invest in the next hot stock but rather what we do is we trade movement movement of people that are investing in the next hot stock and then we take our profits.

And of course this was just a subtle jab at folks who are thinking that they have the stock that's going to have the cure for all of this but instead of trying to guess which one's going to have the cure, why don't you just trade the ones that people think are gonna have the cure and then on the days where they go up a lot you could say oh well I'm gonna buy any confirmation and I'm gonna sell out at validation and then you just continuously repeat the process instead of saying oh well I'll just invest when this is 200% up and then I'll see if it does well and then if it doesn't I'll just hold until I'm like 70 and then the whole thing is just everyone's dead from some other disease. No folks, this is ridiculous. You're being a clown if you're going to invest your hard-earned money into a stock because you feel you just feel like that stocks going to have the cure. and that's ridiculous.

That's a gamble position. Just say it for what it is. it's a gamble position. Nobody knows who's gonna have the cure.

So why don't you just trade the actual price action when they have the hype? But anyways, folks, right at 2-over I Hope this video was helpful of course I Wish all of you the best I Want to remind you to stay healthy, wash your hands, and trade like a spoiled brat. But other than that, make sure to let me know any comment section below what you think about this current market condition and whether you have any questions for me. And of course if you are looking for a structured guide to grow your account in any market condition, we do offer Zip Trader You which will put the link in the description below to see whether or not it's a good fit or not. But have a great day and I'll see you in the next video.

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