Okay folks, we've got a lot to talk about. Number One: We need to discuss today's market. Number Two: We need to discuss very violently: a stock that went up about fifty percent at highs today. What's the deal? Is there more upside? and what is the overall story here? Time stamps below.

Let's get to work. So today's market had a set up to be one of the worst days of the year. Last week was a green week after seven consecutive down weeks giving extra upside to be eaten away. You also had Jerome Powell talking to Biden, a president who has a ton of political pressure to see to it that inflation is under control.

And then, most importantly, you have this sudden escalation in the oil crisis, where oil goes up to the highest point since March, spurred by the Eu agreeing on more sweeping bans of Russian oil imports. Oil prices and commodity prices as a whole are arguably the biggest kryptonite to any form really of economic improvement. The more expensive commodities are, the more stubborn inflation's going to be, but also the more of people's disposable income will be eaten up and can't be spent elsewhere. Rising inflation with lower economic growth is usually stemmed by a huge huge increase in commodities during a period of time where people don't have any money to spend for anything else.

Energy, of course, is usually, and is this time, the driver of that kind of commodity crunch. and that's quite frankly, a very, very hard economic environment to get out of. And so when you see huge, huge, and sudden uptrends and escalation in the oil markets, that's usually when you see some of the worst bloodbaths in the stock market. But not today.

While the markets did go down today net, they mostly brushed it off. I mean, half a percent down in the S P 500? That's like a very, very bullish day for 2022.. if you jump and roll around in a fiery pit of lava and once you leave, you find out that only your pinky toe is burnt well, you know something weird is going on. and even crazier.

So the rebound rally the last week left markets almost entirely unchanged in the month of March. If you look at the month over month change from the last trading day in April to close today, markets are up 0.01 percent for all intensive purposes. Flat. The trading month over month was flatter than the earth, which suggests that markets have shown some stability to the current narrative and what it's thrown at it at least until the Fed changes course again or inflation reverses in the wrong direction, both of which we aren't expected to get any major updates on for at least the next few weeks, perhaps even slightly after that.

This next Fomc meeting isn't the most feared. Markets right now are in the cycle where they have been given the reasons to sell for like the last six months and those reasons have been amplified in the last three months. And so folks that wanted to sell on those reasons have mostly sold the ones that are looking at the market right now and deciding whether or not to sell, or ones that quite frankly weren't as inclined to panic sell at the previous downtrends and quite frankly don't have any new data and catalysts coming out in the near future, at least for the next few weeks. So this is the crucial period where you have some of those quiet buy and holders deciding whether or not it makes sense to sell people who haven't capitulated during the worst days of this year.

They're trying to make the judgment call on whether or not it makes sense holding, and it's these people that are going to lead the market to the next cycle, whether or not we have any sort of retaining power in the overall market, or whether we just get completely bludgeoned again like we've been bludgeoned the rest of the year. It's my personal view that inflation, the Fed, and really overall commodity prices are going to be the biggest drivers for the stock market for the next year, really. But if you want to know how much more fear is in the market and how much is behind the surface here, you want to really look at what is happening during this quiet period where people aren't given an amplification of new reasons to sell. At least not like we were given a couple weeks ago and a couple months ago But they are also not being given a lot of reasons to buy.

When things get quiet, you have to pay attention. Okay, Mullen, Mullen, Mullen. All quiet and then boom screaming pop today popping up from 91 sets to 156 at Heist. Apparently, Mullen didn't get the memo that small companies aren't ever supposed to go up against.

But is Mullen worth mulling over? Mullen job today because the company reported positive results on their Solid State Polymer Battery Testing and their Battery Innovation Center in Indiana. On the website press release, it says quote: It is expected that with this technology, when scaled to the vehicle pack level, a 150 kilowatt hour solid-state battery can deliver over 600 miles of range on a full charge for the Mullen 5ev crossover. In general, solid-state batteries offer higher energy density, faster charging times, smaller size, and safety compared to traditional lithium-ion cells. Okay, so the big takeaway here is that mileage estimate: 600 miles.

That's quite a bit. They've talked about this number before, but this is them essentially saying that their test results are in line with expectations. If you trust this data and this is true, then Mullen has a lot of value. Whether or not Mullen even ever delivers a Mullen 5 or any sort of vehicle, it has some real value as a battery tech company and potentially even an acquisition candidate because these numbers sound like top of the industry based on mileage alone.

What are some of the best ranges we have right now? Well, the top dog in range is that Lucid Air Dream edition at 520 miles. The second is the Tesla Model S at 405 miles. Although if you get the decent looking wheels that don't look like shitty plastic, it takes off like 50 miles from the battery. But of course, the main advantage that Mullen would have is their vehicles are a lot cheaper.

Their first branch of Mullen5s are going to retail for 55k and so far are posted at a range of 325 miles per charge. If they can bolster this up to 600 miles and keep the price in that range, you'd expect them to be pretty damn competitive or again be at least a buyout candidate for somebody that could use that battery, which is why people were buying the stock today. Now that said, I'm always very skeptical when it comes to these types of clients. As somebody that's watched and analyzed a lot of different Ev hopefuls over the last few years, I've learned to take pretty much everything with a grain of salt, which is why I've only covered Mullen as a very risky catalyst play if anything, rather than a fundamental buy and hold play.

And while we take Evie hopefuls with a grain of salt, when it comes to super small cap Ev companies that don't have a lot of money or a lot of experience or proof of concept, you have to take it with even a smaller grain of salt. The 600 mile number we've been hearing about for a while and it's kind of been a cat and mouse game between people who don't believe it and people who do believe it. where when something good comes out about the battery, it rallies massively and then shortly after it sells off. On days where the media praises the stock of course it pumps, and then on days where the media is no longer talking about it, it dumps, which is kind of similar to any sort of cow let's play, but with this one, it's a little bit more dangerous because a lot of people really do believe all of the numbers that they're hearing, which is freaky to me.

It's always been suspicious when a small company can come out with some sort of insane, revolutionary battery that beats all of the top tier incumbents in the fields without having much capital spent or much of an experienced team, especially considering companies like Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen, amongst many others spend tons more money and have a lot more experience and have much much more talented teams. Mullen is a company whose Ceo's main background experience is from the music industry. Their Battery R D manager lists no prior commercial work experience outside of academia. I was reading some comments on my last Mullen video which some people saw as overly critical and a lot of folks said that.

oh, experience isn't really needed for battery development, but the idea that you're just kind of born with all of this knowledge and ability to create revolutionary batteries with very, very little amounts of capital in a very short time period and completely just destroy all the other players in the race is just mind-blowing to me. Mullen also spends barely a million dollars a quarter on total R D, and that's actually gone up dramatically year over year. It used to be only like 500 000 a quarter. That buys you like nothing if you want to pay the salaries of a good research team of like maybe just 10 people that would take almost all that capital.

Tesla, for example, spent 865 million in the last quarter on R D. Now obviously, Tesla is very, very well capitalized. But think about this for a second. How is it that Mullen can spend 1 800th of Tesla's R D? and with a much, much much much much smaller team of very, very low experienced workers come out with something that's so much better than what Tesla has? Charlie, But Lucid beat Tesla.

Destiny ain't good with battery development. they just spend lots of money and don't do well well. Lucid is still spending like around 180 times per quarter what Mullen is spending, but they've been investing and building this battery for years and it's already in production. With Mullen.

they're still in the early experimental stages where battery development costs a lot more money, and presumably a lot of the R D cost goes to the rest of the car as well. But hey, maybe they beat the odds and they didn't really need much money or much experience to develop a battery. Fine, But the problem is, we've kind of been hearing the story for a while. that 600 number has been floated around for years.

Back on August 10th, 2020, Mullen put out a press release saying that an independent lab provided evidence that the license technology may be capable of enabling electric vehicles to travel in excess of 600 miles. That independent testing firm was Ev Grid. Mullen alleged that they said the results provided support that the company's licensed battery technology may be capable of enabling the electrical vehicle to travel 640 miles at a cruising speed of 55 miles per hour on a flat surface, blah blah blah blah. However, the Ceo of Ev Grid was asked about these statements and alleged praises on the Mullen battery and this is what he said.

No, we would never have said that, we never did say it, and certainly wouldn't have said it based on the results of testing that battery. Now again, I'm not saying that Mullen can't be successful. Maybe they're in the early stages of developing a battery that may not be finished until 2035.. But if markets really believe these claims that they have that kind of battery technology, this company would actually be worth a heck of a lot more.

Unfortunately though, there are other things I don't like about the company. One more example is the Ceo was hyping up the Mullen vans in manufacturing of them. However, if you look at recent data from import genius, it shows that Mullen is actually ordering two vans that look very, very similar to the two models of vans that they say they're going to produce. and they're ordering them from Chinese manufacturers fully made.

and it creates this picture. In my opinion, at least that Mullen is likely just going to buy vans from China and then rebrand them as Mullins like they've attempted to do in the past when they rebranded John Way-vans but it never received certification to be sold in the U.s so nothing happened to it. I'm not saying this is a rotten egg, but it's sure pretty damn smelly and even if this was a golden goose, most early stage Ev companies were going to get obliterated in this coming environment. There's a few again that I like that have proof of concept and a lot of capital to get through the times.

Not many though. However, as a catalyst, hype, spec, risky trade, anything goes. It's just a question of how much your risk tolerance is. Now it's time for what I like.

What I like. Well, it's down 91 from highs that we hit in mid November, creating a lot of extra perceived upward potential for hype traits. I also like that it pretty confidently declared support at around 75 cents back in mid-may despite a lot of other companies making newer lows after that low. I also like the dedicated following of spec traders that seem to rush into this every single time you get a good catalyst.

I also like that there's a potential Catalyst with a promised and supposed alleged delivery of 500 commercial vans to some Fortune 500 company that the company has teased about. Although again, it seems like those vans are just going to be rebranded from China. and as of right now, Mullen does not have Epa certification, which means that they can't really have legally sold anything and have it be on the road for 12 to 18 months after they get that Epa certification. So anybody that's like oh well, you know they're going to be delivering in the next three four months.

I don't see how that's possible, but in terms of Catalyst, just the mere talk of that and media coverage on such a low cap stock of such a low float stock is going to be something that's very, very bullish to trade off of. but it's going to be pump and dumping. I love, love, love companies that can spike rapidly on news and have the ability to actually move. But you know what? You have to be very, very careful because they pop huge and then they dump Huge.

If you don't have clear risk management and a appetite to write those types of trends, then you're going to be in a bad, bad mama Jama situation. I personally have no longer short position in this, I won't be taking one. I often try my hardest to cover stocks that people want to hear about, stocks that are moving, stocks that have some sort of catalyst. But I have to be straightforward with both the potential rewards as well as the potential risks.

At the very core, anything is fair game for a trader who knows how to manage their risk. And with this especially, it's very, very true that you want to be able to trade the hype but not let the hype trade you. So something to keep in mind that caps off the video. Make sure to hit that ravishing like button and subscribe and I'll see you in the next one.

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