Okay folks, so we need to give a violent update on the market and plays including Prague, which was quite fun today. I'm sure our friends over in the Czech Republic are very happy about that. And then for the main entree this evening, yesterday we spoke about Maura Lovely Mara. We did the math on her, how much Bitcoin she'd be producing and how that relates to her relative price Target over the next couple of years, and why I believe that she has approximately 91 percent more upside.

But during the last few weeks, when Mara has risen dramatically, where has competitor Riot gone? It's basically stagnated in the high 20s, despite bitcoin rallying too close to all-time highs. That raises the question: Is Riot dramatically undervalued? And how does it really compare to Mara? Now, hey, anybody that's been focusing on Mars since the beginning of the year knows that Mara's a dirty little tease. You know that I know that everybody knows that that's just her little game. High risk, high reward.

She knows it gets your adrenaline going, and with that, she tightens her control over you. and Maro is a little control freak. In any case, I want to run the numbers on Maura vs. Riot and why I believe that while Mara is the more aggressive candidate of the two, Riot is still likely underperforming quite a lot and has some room to catch up.

And the only thing that I ask in return for all of this is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe either. Okay, Marquetta, you had some nice risk on trading with the Nasdaq leading the S P. following the Dow flat red, there was some bad news coming out of China on slow and gdp growth and with oil prices continuing higher, you had some increased supply chain worries and of course lower profit margin fear for the industrial sector. Okay, Prague had a bit of a squeeze today.

This is a stock that we've been covering since the first uptrend in September, and it then got temporarily derailed because of an offering before coming back last week and then finally, as of today, made its most recent attempt upward with short interest continuing to pick up as well. I named Prague as a catalyst play in today's morning briefings, and I said heavily shorted retail stocks seen pre-market bump Watching to see how it opens and trades. When volume flows in as an indication of direction volume flowed in, it held upward direction. Solid day at highs up over 40 percent at highs, but my thought process on squeezers like this is, hey, look at how far it's run.

If you've got it at a dollar or two dollars, you've got to look at this now and say hey, it's run up a lot, You've done a very, very good job and you've been a very very good boy or girl mechanically. What I say when stocks go up this quickly is I say, hey, start mechanically tightening your risk management and taking some profits off the table. Now I get it, that's not very retail trader Pc and I said the same thing with Cei when it broke my resistance before its eventual massive downtrend and a lot of folks got mad and it's yet to have a sustained rebound rally. If it does, you can always get back into it and play the second rally when people are focusing on how much to yolo into it.

That's when you got to start thinking, okay, well, how am I going to control my exit position? What is my risk management looking like? Okay, Bbig Now I do want to remind you that the Bbig Kryptide spinoff is on Friday. If you're playing for a pre-anticipatory run, keep in mind you're playing with fire here. It's already gone from 495 to just under nine in the span of a few days. Once the rally stops, it'll tank fast.

Now, I think that there's a solid chance that you get some more pre-anticipatory running before that date, but I was disappointed today to see that despite a lot of that market overall market euphoria and risk on trading, you didn't see this pick up much. So I have to reiterate the risk management here as well. Most Evs are up some today. Lucid Fisher, Tesla, Tesla's actually reporting earnings on Wednesday, which I'm super excited to see.

Excited to see what their guidance looks like because they've been managing the supply chain shortage very very well in the recent months. Oogabooga. Amc. Not a lot new on this front, but you do see it breaking into our upper direction on the 180 day.

Overall, enjoyed the risk on trading day today. with the latest bounce, it's now apparent that we have hit a higher low, which is pretty solidly healthy for a stock that is so maligned as Amc. You look at the chart and you hear the little sounds of Oogabooga. And apparently as I was filming this, the report came out from the Sec on the Gamestop Saga.

This looks like quite the reed and I'm not going to be able to get this in this video, but I will read over that. Okay, so Maura has 7035 Btc on its balance sheet. Riot has 3534 Btc on its at current prices that comes out to about 422 million dollars and 212 million respectively. Though to be fair to Riot, they do have about a hundred million dollars more cash on hand than Mara does on their balance sheet, which somewhat compensates for the difference in bitcoin reserve.

But anyways, if you're looking overall, in terms of market cap, you're looking at Mara at a market cap of 5.25 billion. Btc on balance sheet is 8 of total market cap. Riot is sitting at 2.9 billion. Btc on balance sheet is about 7.31 of total market cap.

Now the current hash rates based on the most recent filings I could find from both of them, both dating to the beginning of October. If you actually look at their current operations today, both are relatively similar in number of operating miners and hash rate, Maura is at around 2.7 extra hashes per second. Riot is sitting at 2.6 extra hashes per second. If taken today, based on the current operating infrastructure and current market cap, Riot would be a substantially better deal because again, they have similar operating capacity at the moment, and Riot's trading at like half the valuation of Maura.

But of course, we value companies not based solely on what they're doing today, but what they're going to be doing down the road. and Mara has quite frankly been much more aggressive at scaling up their production capacity. And you're going to see those numbers in a second. But at the beginning of the year, I was looking at both Mara and Wright and I was looking at Ryden saying, okay, well this is the more safe choice because you have a longer track record, it has a longer proof of concept, it has a better production capacity, it's producing more bitcoins month over month, and they are even profitable.

I felt they were playing it safe, and thus they would be a good hedge against Maura, who was the other player that I really liked, who was basically throwing everything she could at scaling up. But now 10 months later, Maro's on a completely different trajectory than Riot. They both have a lot of units waiting to be deployed, but because of Mars aggressive tactics, she has a lot more. 2022.

estimated hash rates for Maura at full deployment come out to 13.3 extra hashes per second, 7.7 for Riot. Mara said she's going to reach full deployment around mid-2022 and Riot is projecting they will reach full deployment around Q4 of 2022, which gives Maura an advantage not just performance wise, but also time wise because they'll be deployed sooner and it gives her a huge edge in getting better production numbers in 2022 because of that earlier deployment. So right now this year, where Riot has had a huge edge on Mara because it's had a faster infrastructure for most of the year and bigger infrastructure. Well, for this year, I'm estimating 3 000 bitcoins mined on the year from Mara and 3500 from Riot.

But then in 2022, it gets really, really interesting because that's when you start seeing Mara pick up a lot. I see Mara at 15 000 Btc and Riot mining 6500. and finally in 2023, you see the effects of full deployment at both. So when they're both fully deployed with everything that they have in their capacity, right now, everything's set up, it's delivered.

It's on the lines working. What are you looking at? You're looking at Maura with 20 000 and Riot with 12 000 and I am assuming a little bit higher of a competition on the network, which we talked about yesterday because if Bitcoin's price goes up, competition to mine, bitcoin is going to go up as well because the incentive structure is higher. So I am factoring that in here. Just to be clear.

Okay, now let's go ahead and take a Bitcoin price at 75 000 for year end 2022 and 2023 to calculate how much you're paying per mine coin if it stays stuck at that base rate of 75 000.. to make that calculation, you take the total market cap, subtract the number of Bitcoin on hand, and divide the results by the total bitcoin production converted to dollars, and you get how much you're really paying for each minecoin at market cap prices. And if you calculate that out in 2022 numbers, Mara is at about 4.29 in market cap for every one dollar in mind production, whereas Riot comes in at a worse value at 5.51 in market cap for every one dollar in production. But 2023 is where riot starts really shining, and that's because they're hitting full deployment and you're seeing the full effect on the year for every dollar.

Mind you're, paying three dollars and 22 cents in market cap with Mara, but with Riot, you're paying 2.99 in market cap. So what am I saying here? Well, based on current projections and hash rates, mars looking like a lot better of a deal. If your time horizon is one year, you get more results per dollar of market cap during that time horizon That's because again, Mara is going to be deploying their miners a lot faster. So they're scaling up a lot faster and they get a better 2022.

And when you run the numbers, even though Mars trading at a much higher valuation, it still comes out to a better value because of that rapid scale. Then, on the other hand, Riot comes ahead in 2023. At which case, they have a better value per dollar of market cap because that's when they actually get to see their full deployment. and because they're trading it like half the valuation net in effect.

if you bought it now, you get a much much better value per dollar mind, except that it would take an extra year to get there now. Obviously, the big limitation with this data is that we don't exactly know how much farther they're planning to scale up their operations after they reach full deployment, because once they've hit full deployment, you would imagine that they'd invest more in their infrastructure and we don't have any numbers to say. Okay, well, how much is more going to scale up? How much is Riot going to scale up? So we're making these projections based only on what they would be at full deployment, not based on what they could be after further investments after that, but still. because they haven't even reached full deployment yet, I don't think it makes sense to go and try to calculate what they're going to be doing after they hit full deployment.

I think that it's more fair to just talk about full deployment and then cross that bridge when we get there. With those calculations, Mars price will come out to 93 75 in 2022 and 123.08 in 2023.. for Riot, it would come out to 40.63 in 2022 and 73.85 in 2023. Now, with that being said, obviously if Bitcoin goes to the roof and we get a very, very strong euphoric market period, well, these numbers are going to be blown through a lot faster than 2022 and 2023.

But we're talking overall, right? We're talking bigger picture. We're not talking day-to-day movement. Now if you are in Zip Trader, you, you may have read my latest Price Target update. At which case, I'll just go ahead and link this.

Since I've already talked about the price targets publicly, I've set my Mara price target at 93.75 and Riot at a Price Target in the low 70s and those are based on deployment. For example, Morris benefit from deployment is going to reflect the strongest in 2022, so I chose 2022's price as the Price target. Riot's deployment will be the more spread out one going into 2023. You're going to see most of the effect of Riots deployment shown in 2023, And so I chose 2023 as Riot's price target.

I think that if you agree with the upside potential in both, they're both really good ways to diversify the crypto mining sector as well as in addition to overall crypto assets. I think that in a risk-off environment, Riot will probably hold up better because it has a longer term proof of concept, but over the long run, Mara has scaled up a lot more dramatically. and when she starts deploying all of the miners that she has purchased all of a sudden, her production numbers are going to be insane. So net in totality, Mara has a lot more immediate value because it's going to be scaling up its operations a lot faster.

Riot has a lot more stable and slow value, but it's also going to be scaling up its operations at a much slower, steady and consistent. Let's say, safer pace. Anyways, folks, that's it for today. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us below or join us on Zip Trader Circle if you'd like to learn how to trade.

With our private chat, our daily morning briefings, as well as our step-by-step lessons where we will walk you through everything that you need to know in order to learn how to better trade and manage your account in the stock of market. Well, we'll go ahead and put a link to Zip Trader You below. This is not the type of course where you can buy it and get away without doing any work. This is something where you're expected to put a ton of work in and effort to get any sort of result.

When I buy something, You better bet that I get every single dollar worth out of it, and I expect the same from you. Also, if you're wondering what broker to trade these stocks on, well, we like to send new traders over to Public.com Ziptrader and I'll go ahead and put the link below. You'll get a free stock valued up to 70 when you use that link. Anyways, have a good one and I'll see you in the next video.