Okay folks, so we have to talk violently about one 19 Ev stock that will start delivering in 2022 and may be very, very undervalued if it hits its production estimates. I want to give my breakdown on this, the risks with it, as well as my price predictions, and the only thing that I ask in return for all of this is that you hit that ravishing like button and also don't forget to subscribe either. Also, quick plug! Our Black Friday 100 coupon code is still active for a short time, so if you do want to lock in lifetime access to our step-by-step lessons, our private chat, our daily morning briefings, as well as of course, our prize targets, Well, I'll go ahead and put a link to Ziptraderu below. Okay folks, so over the last couple of weeks you may have seen some of the analyst and media coverage on the new Fisker Ocean.

This is a mid-sized sharp and sporty looking electric Suv. It also takes sustainability to the next level with the Ocean Suv, comprised of many ocean recycled materials. the highest end model has 350 plus miles of range, which is better than Tesla's Model Y and their Model X. and overall it's going to be competing in a segment that quite simply is very popular, but doesn't have many decent electric vehicle alternatives.

And whether we are talking range, styling, or tech, the Ocean Suv seems like it's going to be one of the most competitive in the segment. Its price also goes as low as 37 500, which makes it more affordable to a wider range of consumers. They've also been selected by the Pope to build an all-electric Pope Mobile, which of course, isn't a big deal in terms of actual revenue, but it's certainly a big symbolic deal. The Popemobile is often a part of pop culture, and at the very least, switching from traditional brands to a Fisker is free marketing.

What about the leadership over at Fisker? Well, the Ceo, Henrik Fisker has been in the Eevee business for more than a decade. He co-created electric car startup Fisker Automotive in 2007. their famous Fisker Carmo was one of the original ambitious sedans to compete for the early stage electric vehicle market share, and after a slew of recalls and battery supply issues amongst other problems, the company ended up going bankrupt in 2013 after delivering somewhere only around 2000 vehicles worldwide. Another company ended up forming from the bankrupt assets Karma, And Karma used that original Fisker Korma model as a foundation for their current offerings, which are steadily growing.

Then Henrik Fisker himself then decided in 2016 that he wanted to start another company, Fisker, Inc, which would focus more on longer-range autonomous driving and advanced battery technology, and I'd argue his experience failing is a huge asset to the company. A lot of people think that failure makes you weaker, but that's a stupid damn argument because I would rather have somebody that failed and knows the challenges and struggles than somebody who's brand new as a Ceo and has never even seen how hard it is to scale up production. And while he wasn't successful 10 years ago, he's a lot smarter because of it. I think that's a large reason why their strategy with Fisker Inc.

has been so different than a lot of the other Eevee manufacturers. They've taken more of an outsourcing approach to manufacturing at the early stages, which presumably would be more in-house as time goes on, and they show more proof of concept and revenue and eventually profit. But I would argue given their situation and the competitiveness rising in the field, it makes more sense for them to save on manufacturing early on and then later scale up than it does to scale up first without showing that proof of concept. And the only reason I'm really saying that is because I do like their partnerships.

They have a comprehensive partnership with Magna, which is through 2029 essentially covers most stages of production. They have a partnership with Cat El to provide batteries, and Mae Fisker signed an agreement with Foxconn, which is the Taiwanese company that assembles iphones. They signed an agreement to help co-develop and manufacture a new electric vehicle, and with all of these measures, they are planning on launching their fist corrosion in terms of deliveries in late 2022.. Another thing that I really like about their strategy is they have put a lot of thought into being competitive on a financing level.

If you compare the cost to lease a fisker with the average segment competitor, you can lease the fisker for half the monthly cost. The drive off cost is less, there's no fixed term, and they have a lot more miles nearly twice the number of miles I haven't seen that many automakers really focus much on the bottom line for how much these consumers are gonna have to pay to get in the vehicles. Making something affordable to the average person isn't just about lowering the cost of the car, but also making the financing or leasing rates competitive in terms of the stock. We've been a fan for a while, but it only really started picking up in the last couple of months because of the Eevee cycle.

A few weeks back, I made a video showing my math on how much you're paying in market cap for each company's 2023 and 2025 estimated deliveries, and I said, if you compare based on that, Fisker is dramatically undervalued, sitting at 31 000 in market cap per vehicle versus for example, Rivien's one million dollars in market cap per delivered vehicle in 2025 or Lucid's 525 000. Now, obviously, this isn't exactly a fair comparison, because it's not apples to apples. Each of these manufacturers are going to have a different average price point, so if one delivery is worth more than the other delivery, obviously that should be over factored into the price. But still, the discrepancy here is dramatic.

And of course, since then, market caps have changed a little bit as Ev euphoria has cooled off, but still, the picture is overall the same. So why is Fisker so much cheaper than its competitors? Well, I would argue because it's going to take longer for them to show proof of concept. they're not going to start delivering at all until late 2022, and their meaningful scaling isn't really going to happen until 2023, versus a lot of the other ones on this list have already started delivering. Actually, they've all started delivering and they are already starting to scale, if not scaling in 2022..

So I would argue that Fisker is about a year behind the pack, but because of their partnerships, are likely going to scale up dramatically faster, so on one end the market doesn't want to touch it because you have a longer term time horizon, and that means more uncertainty. On the other hand, if they can actually work with that uncertainty, and when there's a lot more alpha, there's a lot more upside on top of it than the other competitors have because they've already factored in all their numbers and at the end of the day, we'll talk about manufacturing capacity in a few moments. But an important thing for analyzing fiscal is demand. and they've consistently scaled up reservations since November of 2019.

They actually have some of the best in the industry in terms of pre-order reservations total over 17 500. The most recent numbers say 18 600, but these are numbers that they did before the huge media wave and before the massive coverage that it's seen over the last couple of weeks. And these numbers also only showcase people who have extreme patience. People who reserve the fiscal ocean years in advance.

But because we're heading into 2022 and media coverage is now through the roof, and because we're actually going to see deliveries in late 2022, you would expect that reservations start ticking up dramatically. If these are the kind of reservations that you can get years in advance from people who don't know for certain that they're ever going to even get their cars. Imagine the reservations that you can do once everybody's paying attention to it and they know that their deliveries are going to start next year. And media attention really does matter if you look at the bounce and reservations.

After the January 5th, 2020 revelation of the Fisker Ocean at Ces, you would imagine that we get a reservation boost. That's if not similar to this that is much much bigger than it. So I would say at the very least, Fisker has been very, very successful at courting demand. and in 2022, that should be even more so true.

But now I want to go ahead and run through my bull and Bear valuations on the stock based on estimated deliveries and revenue. So Fisker seems to think they'll be able to deliver something around 200 000 to 250 000 vehicles in 2025. I'll grant them the lower end of the estimate. For the bull case scenario, it's an ambitious target, even at the lower end of the estimate, just because this is a company that hasn't started delivering at all in the present year, and all of a sudden it's going to get to 200 000 by 2025.

But they have outsourced a lot of their manufacturing which could make it possible to hit. I just would say that I'm not exactly convinced that they're going to hit it, but for the bull case scenario, I think it's fine to use that estimate. now. Filling in and extrapolating the data, I would say a realistic bullish trajectory looks something like 1000 in 2022, 50 000 in 2023, 125 000 in 2024, and then 200 000 in 2025.

Extrapolating from the prices of their ocean configurations and their top to bottom approach, they're going to start with their most expensive Fiskar Ocean one, and then work down the different configurations that are actually cheaper and more affordable. You start in 2022 with an average price per vehicle sold at 69, 000, then in 2023, 45 000, then 2024, 42, 000, and then 40 000, And that comes out. When you multiply average price per car by deliveries, it comes out to a 2022 revenue of 69 million, a 2023 revenue of 2.2 billion when they actually start scaling, and 2024 5.25 billion, 2025, 8 billion. Now look very, very closely at how these numbers stack up.

Right now, the market does not believe in Fisker because we're in 2021, and this isn't even going to be meaningfully stacking up deliveries at all for another 12 months minimum. Meanwhile, a lot of its competitors are stacking them up, so the market's like, hey, I don't want to take a risk with this. There's like 10 other companies that are actually delivering right now, so if they could actually achieve these delivery projections. all of a sudden, the fair value of this price skyrockets in 2023, 2024, and 2025..

Obviously, the market is forward-looking so by mid-2022 if it looks like they're gonna start really delivering at the end, you could start seeing it move a lot higher. You go by these revenue numbers. A fair value for 2022 is obviously nothing. Six bucks a share.

The company hasn't done anything meaningful in 2022. In terms of actual deliveries, I don't even know if it's gonna hit a thousand, but it's pretty much irrelevant because 2023 is when you start scaling. If they start actually reaching deliveries in scale production in 2023, they could actually hit 50 000 deliveries. and we could be looking at 195 dollars in price target at fair value in 2024.

If they hit 125 000 deliveries, we could be looking at a fair value price target at 435 and in 2025, obviously at 632. Now, why are these numbers so insane? Well, it's because again, compared to the competitors, Fisker has most underpriced their anticipated deliveries in 2025.. Lucid, for example, is projected to do 135 000 deliveries in 2025, which is less than Fisker's bare case projection for that same year. But because Lucid has already started delivering now in 2021 and is going to be using 2022 as its first year of massive scaling production, the market trusts that a lot more and is a lot more excited about that proof of concept in the moment.

unless the market is willing to factor that in ahead of time because it's already shown that proof of concept now where Fisker hasn't yet done that Now, Obviously, at the same time again, it's not really fair to rank these based on deliveries because of different price points and vehicles and whatnot. But even if you look revenue to revenue, my projected revenue for Lucid in 2025 is 14 billion and my projected revenue for Fisker in 2025 is around 8 billion. If you use the same exact valuation metric and they both trade at 15x sales in 2025, Lucid would be sitting at a price of 104 dollars, while a Fisker would be sitting at a price of 632. It seems very believable that Lucid could be sitting at a price of 104 because it's already factored in half way to that price.

But it doesn't sound very believable that Fisker will get to 632 because it's only at a price of like 19 bucks right now. And why is that? Well, again, it's because Lucid has factored in a lot. More specifically because it's showing proof of concept now instead of a year from now, and the market trusts it more. but that's an inefficiency in my opinion.

I'm not going to say that Fisker is going to hit these numbers. I've said on the channel in the past that I think these are way too optimistic, but even if you go and just say screw it, we're going to cut the estimated deliveries in half. You're still sitting at a 98 fair value in 2023, a 2024 fair value with 217 dollars, and a 316 fair value in 2025.. And hey, at the end of the day, the Eevee business is tough and it's competitive.

And the risk of the stock is it is more speculative, specifically because it does have an extra year, but I'd argue the risk of this flopping is way way over factored in and there's so much margin for error over a long enough time horizon. There's certainly some odds of this dramatically underperforming the estimates, but even if it's half down, I would still argue that the fair value of this is dramatically dramatically higher than the current price. And if they do hit their estimates all of a sudden, Fiskar's in the situation where it's basically a home run play and you have massive, massive, massive upside so projections well in the next 12 months, which is the time span before they start substantially scaling production, you're going to see huge, back and forth, volatile catalyst driven trading like we've seen this last year, some Fisker specific catalyst trading such as a New Partnership which we've seen huge spikes on partnerships like that Magna Partnership, and or you'll see massive eevee cycles go in and go out of Fisker like we've seen over the last couple of weeks. And that's because simply over the next 12 months, the market will not have anything concrete to go off of.

It's not delivering anything, but once it hits the rolling Out stage in late 2022, and once it starts hitting that scaling out phase in 2023, all of a sudden the market's like hey, wait a second. This is working similar to how Lucid traded back and forth until all of a sudden it switched massively because they were showing that they were delivering. You can make an argument that right now because the current hype cycle, it's actually very expensive when looking at a short term time horizon. But when you start looking at this from a 12 to 18 month time horizon, all of a sudden it looks very, very cheap.

So I think if you want to get the best of both worlds, wait until this hype cycle dies off of Evie, Wait until Fisker gets beat down again another five, six bucks and then starts saying hey, maybe it's time to exploit. Anyways, that caps off the video. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us below or join us on Ziptrader Circle. If you'd like to join us before our Black Friday sale expires, make sure to type in coupon code Black Friday 100 when checking out with Ziptraderu and you will get 100 off.

This will give you lifetime access to our step-by-step lessons, our private chat, our daily morning briefings, as well as of course, our price targets. So if you do want to join us, make sure to check us out below. Anyways, that caps off the video. have a good one and I'll see you in the next video.