Folks, the banking crisis is spiraling and we've got lots to discuss. Number One more Banks collapse despite heavy intervention from Regulators to stop the contagion. I Want to discuss what's going on and the banks that could be next? Number Two markets are betting that the Fed's plan for inflation is destroyed and that rate hikes are done. What does the data show? And then number Three, We're going to talk trade ideas and how we can exploit this Market condition.

For example, our ticker from the sponsored segment yesterday had a nice breakout this morning. What's the take moving forward? Is there more opportunity left? I believe so and we'll discuss it. And then Uvxy, which essentially long sphere and uncertainty continues its hero's journey. Is there more breakouts for this down the road? We'll discuss it.

time stamps below. Let's get to work And today's video is brought to you by Mumu and the up to 17 free stocks that you can get if you sign up and deposit a small amount using our link down below. MooMoo is an incredibly powerful broker and trading platform and you're not going to regret signing up with them. They have a lot of features that a lot of other Brokers charge you for.

And importantly, by the way, MooMoo is a member of the Sip C which protects its customers up to five hundred thousand dollars including two hundred fifty thousand for claims for cash very important during these times, right? You got to have that Sipc insurance You got to have Sec. and Federal Regulation MooMoo has all of those things. Let's get to work. So Svb collapses on Friday and falls into the hands of the regulators.

And then last night the news came out that Signature Bank in New York fell as well. This happened so fast that it wasn't really reported on much, but it was actually the third biggest baking failure in U.S History: Third only to the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed last week and Washington Mutual collapse in 2008.. if you add up the Svb and the Signature Bank assets at collapse, well, they total more than the WAMU collapse. So the idea that this is just a small banking problem is a complete farce.

It's a lie. This is statistically significant. These are some of the biggest collapses in U.S History and U.S Regulators recognized this and they came out with some pretty damn aggressive action. Bloomberg Reports: U.S Authorities took Extraordinary Measures to shore up confidence in the financial system after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank introducing a new backstop for banks that Federal Reserve officials said was big enough to protect the entire nation's deposits.

Now, this should have sent a message to the country that, hey, you don't have to worry. we're not only going to ensure deposits up to 250 000, but essentially, we're going to ensure all deposits. And that indeed did help put a floor on markets. but banks are still selling off and people are still worried that the contagion is going to continue to spread.

And there's a root cause for this, which we'll go into in a second. But look at these numbers: First Republic Bank Dumped another 62 percent today Hack: West Banned Corp another 30 percent Comerica another 28. Pretty brutal. Pretty damn brutal.

And Bloomberg put up a chart where they put a lot of these Regional banking stocks together and look at how they traded as This Svb Disaster has played out just awful. Just awful. for a crisis that the government is telling us is completely contained. Well, it sure seems like the shareholders of these stocks didn't get that memo.

And likewise, the Vix has top 30 for the first time since 2022. Which means what, well it means, fear and uncertainty is back into this. Market Meanwhile, gold as a safe haven asset, it has started. Rising Once again.

so why are people still panicking if the US is essentially backstopping all deposits? Well, because there's a difference between the cause of a crisis and a symptom of a crisis. This only deals with the symptom of a crisis. You see, there are two ways that you can look at this Svb and signature and other potential. Regional Bank collapses Again, You can look at them as either the cause of a financial crisis or a symptom of it.

You see, if Svb and the like are the cause of a financial crisis, then all the government has to do is seize them and protect depositors. And Boom, no more crisis anywhere else, But we know that's not the case. Since Svb is not the root cause of the crisis, simply backstopping their deposits isn't going to do much for the bigger picture problem. In order to solve this financial crisis, you cannot.

You can't just treat the symptoms, but you have to treat the actual root cause or the overall illness is going to keep pillaging. Because Svb and some of these other Banks were on the weaker end of the spectrum, they may look like they're are starting the crisis. But obviously we know this is a crisis that has been brewing since the FED started aggressively hiking rates. The minute that the FED decided to raise rates at this pace.

Well, that was the minute that the FED had essentially set a ticking time bomb and at some point that time bomb was going to explode and it started exploding here and people can look at where it's exploding and say oh, okay, well this is just contained Or they could say yeah, but the other bombs were going to be going off in other areas in coming quarters, the underlying cause of this financial crisis is not Svb. It's not Signature. No, it's the FED. It's raising rates at this insane pace.

And until that cause is addressed, while more and more banks are likely to fail, and that means more and more banks that are going to need to go into receivership, and more and more banks that are going to need to be backstopped by the U.S regulators and the Fed So what banks are next to fail? What banks are next to be picked up by Regulators Well, there's multiple factors to consider here: Banks with the most toxic assets are obviously going to be the riskiest Banks and most likely to collab apps so far Tech and crypto and overall startup lenders. those have been some of the riskiest Banks right? But there's also another big risk factor to know, and it's something that most banks are stuck with right now. CNN Reported that U.S Banks in totality have about 620 billion in unrealized losses, and this is on treasuries and other bonds. The reason this has happened is because when interest rates were zero and the unlimited money printer was printing while Banks had more cash than they knew what to do with and they parked a lot of it in treasuries and bonds.

But as rates went up, the previously issued lower rate treasuries and other bonds lost a ton of their market value. Now of course, the way that the bonds work is if you hold them to maturity, you get the full value. But it creates the situation where for all intents and purposes, banks have all of these toxic assets that won't detoxify for years, and these assets are usually looked at as low risk cash equivalents. so they're kind of like a pseudo Reserve But now they're not really a pseudo Reserve because if you cash them out all of a sudden, you get a massive, massive dip in your overall bottom line.

So if you combine s with a bank that already has a lot of other risky assets, a lot riskier assets that may not ever pay out. Well, all of a sudden you have a 500 pound straw that's going to break a camel's back and you get a collapse even. And this is what that looks like on a chart across the whole industry. Mass Scale Unrealized losses, which if they sold today at their value would be realized and be a huge huge hit.

Now, just having a big portfolio of unmatured Securities doesn't mean you're going to collapse. obviously not. In fact, if they can hold it to maturity, no harm, no foul, and U.S Regulators right now are essentially opening up Windows where they can go and buy a lot of these toxic assets ahead of time, ahead of maturity and provide banks with needed liquidity. However, if you want to see banks that I think are the most likely to have runs and are the most likely to have the need to fall into, maybe a receivership or some substantial relationship with U.S Regulators In order to survive well, these are the ones that have the most toxic exposures.

Market Watch in facts that put this piece together and they found 10 stocks with the most toxic exposures. If you look at their aoci as a percentage of their total Equity Capital which for simplification purposes, you can just think of as the level of which each company is impacted by these toxic assets. The lower the percentage, the more toxic exposure customer banned Corp is at about negative 10.4 percent First Republic is at negative 1.9 percent Sandy Spring Band Corp is at negative 8.2 percent New York Community ban Corp negative 6.6 First Foundation ban Corp Negative 1.1 percent Ally Financial a whopping whooping negative 24 dime Community Negative 7.5 Pacific Premier negative Eight Point seven percent Prosperity Basically nothing 0.1 percent Columbia Financial Negative 14.5 percent and Svb was at negative 10.5 percent So Based on unrealized losses with these toxic assets, the one with the most exposure here is Ally Financial A very, very popular Mega online bank with about 191 billion in total assets, this is a big big player. And then Columbia financial and customers ban Corp So some of these banks are pretty damn exposed a lot more than Svb.

Ally is a lot more exposed than Svb to the specific toxic asset. Now, of course, if Ally is very, very safe in all the other categories, then that doesn't mean it's going to collapse or it's even at a massive massive risk as compared to Svb which already has collapsed. But again, when you have a lot of these toxic assets and you have a lot of other risky bets on the side, well that combines to kill the camel right? It completely breaks the camel's back and then all of a sudden Boom Boom Pow you gotta collapse. And the fact of the matter is, if this was just in straight up cash, these Banks would be in a much better position.

Or if it was in straight up current treasury bills or something like that which pay very, very high rates and allow you short-term access to your capital. In fact, if Svb had its capital in cash, straight up cash instead of of treasuries and long-dated bonds, well, they may not have collapsed on March 8 Svb's parent company, Svb Financial Group revealed it had sold 21 billion dollars of Securities from its portfolio at a loss of 1.8 billion. That extra 1.8 billion could have gone a long way in ensuring that this Bank stayed operational before it fell into receivership. and it could have given a lot more confidence because once this was reported, a lot of people like oh shite this bank, it's it's coming down.

We better get out now. So if they had never reported that, if they never had that problem, if they had a lot more cash reserves and straight up cash or in T bills which again are short term, then maybe maybe they wouldn't have collapsed. Impossible to say. but maybe they wouldn't.

So these toxic assets which are supposed to be cash equivalents, well, they're not good. They're a big liability right now. Now moving on. One of the consequences: the consequentivos of this banking collapse is that the FED is no longer expected to go through with their rate hikes.

Yes, the Fed and Regulators overall are injecting liquidity into the recently collapsed Banks. But the truth is again, it's unlikely that they want to keep playing the Cat and Mouse game and backstop the rest of the banking sector if more and more Banks get unraveled. So right now, U.S Regulators and really, the FED have two options. Number one, we continue to raise rates and we just keep treating the symptoms as Bank after Bank collapses or number two, we start pausing rates and then start cutting, probably closer down to zero.

The Hill reports economists for Goldman Sachs The sacks of Goldman said they do not expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its next meeting this month. Sliding The pressure about already increased rates have put on banks following the historic failure of Silicon Valley Bank. The FED has deployed interest rate hikes in an attempt to temper inflation in the economy trying to slow down activity. But after the abrupt takeover of Silicon Valley Bank by Federal Regulators last week, many pointed to the pressure that Rising interest rates put on the bank which bought up near zero interest Bonds in years past and have seen them lose value with subsequent trade hikes.

And as Goldman makes this prediction that rate hikes are behind us. Well, likewise, two-year treasuries have been completely plummeting mortgage rates as well also plummeting. and if you go over to the FED future rates, the current Target rate is now favored to be only 25 basis points, but growing is the chance for no rate hike at all. saying that we're going to be staying at the current range of 450 or 475 and markets right now are asking: does the FED risk more Banks collapsing and more being seized or does it decide the risks are just too elevated Now and tomorrow we have the CPR report coming out as well as the PPI and we're going to find out the latest on inflation, the latest on these inflationary Trends and pressures.

and if they're not completely awful, markets are going to look at them and say okay, well the FED is likely going to prioritize the banking sector. Okay, next trade ideas I Want to start with Cmnd and really a follow-up on Cmnd and what? I see moving forward Now This was a sponsored stock from yesterday's video and my prediction was you'd see the momentum continue to fight back against the broader market, and so far that has been true. Cmnd has continued seeing more and more attention and was one of the top gainers this morning, breaking out to 510.. Now if you go back to my setup breakdown yesterday I set the crucial lines of resistance to break were 424, 525 and then 6 10..

Well, we blew through 424 today, but we couldn't quite break past that 525. You topped out at about 510 and so 525. That's the next key resistance level. You see this break above that and you've got your moonshot opportunity to 610..

Now of course, as you know I love stocks that have both short-term potential but also long-term potential and I Believed yesterday that Cmnd had short-term potential because it was already on a nice momentum wave the prior week, which set it up for an acceleration into open This week. it had fought off the Friday sell-off and that immunity helped push up the price today as well. But this play also has some long-term catalysts as well their Pipeline and IP and so on and so forth. So you have that short-term opportunity and that long-term opportunity.

and it has continued to show that proof of concept which we love I Think what you want to look at continuing into the rest of the week is: see: can it continue to build onto this momentum that it has shown? Can it continue even if it has a take profit cycle to continue to make higher and higher stair steps? to the upside: Can it continue to make higher and higher highs? If it can? And it blows through those crucial resistance levels which we talked about yesterday's video. Well, guess what? That's a lot of proof of concept at the very least. I Continue to believe the setup is worth keeping a top of your radar. It's already run quite a lot, so make sure you keep seeing more proof of concept.

But that is my take and it was a sponsored stock yesterday, but today it's not sponsored I'm just covering it to follow up. Now the next ticker that you absolutely need to know is Uvxy. So we talk about this quite a lot and we talk about it pretty much every time the economy and Market acts up, which is really quite a lot unfortunately. But anyways, it's gone from 437 to 72 in the last few days and every time you see increased fear and uncertainty.

that means people out there are trying to hedge. and when people try to hedge our implied volatility, index vix goes up. And that means the trading index for that Uvxy goes up and we are now breaking well well above our redirect. Unless I'm a line and the momentum is continuing to be strong, Volume has increased as well.

This is an extremely significant break of the day downtrend in the index that we have seen since October and when increasing volume is combined with increasing prices, what does that mean? Well, it likely means that you have more running left because before the price turns down, before the price dumps, the level of buyers starts dwindling and dwindling, and all of a sudden the volume starts turning negative. So while volume is still Rising, you would expect to see more and more breakouts in Uvxy. You combine that with a lot of uncertainty around the Fomc meeting on the 22nd and the inflationary reports the next couple of days. And oh, if you should see some pretty strong rolling opportunities in Uvxy now.

always remember so much money Moves In and Out of the stock market every single day. If you're somebody that's like I have to buy and hold on a narrative every single day and I have to invest in that narrative until I'm 85. If I'm already 85 until I'm 100. Well, you're probably not going to do great.

You have to be somebody that's looking at the trends and like, Okay, well, which trend is true right now and how can I how can I profit off that? I Don't know if you've noticed, but the market has switched from a bull to Bear narrative like 20 times in the last three three months. We've switched from a soft Landing to a hard Landing to no Landing narrative over and over and over again. So if you are going and just saying oh, I am dedicated to one narrative and I'm going to ignore all the others. Well, you're probably going to miss out on most of the fun moves, right? Anyways, That is the take.

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