Okay folks, so we've got lots to talk about today. Number one, we gotta talk violently about why I was gone. Number two, we got to talk about what the heck is going on with this market environment. and then number three, I want to talk about what to get ready for this week.

Okay, so first on the agenda. I did catch Covid and it was a big pain in the rear end. I started with the big sore throat on Monday and I started getting a very bad headache by Tuesday and a lot of muscle aches and pains. fatigue.

wasn't really able to think straight. Honestly, I had some bouts of nausea and honestly was pretty beat up throughout most of the week. I'm feeling a lot better now though, and I am fairly young and did get double vaccinated last year, so perhaps those things helped in terms of how I got it. My girlfriend and I took a road trip to Vegas for New Years in what was presumably the worst weekend throughout the entire pandemic for case spreads.

If I did a simple technical analysis before we went, I probably wouldn't have caught it. But anyways, folks, thank you so much for the pouring out of support this last week and I really miss making these daily uploads for you. Okay, next on the agenda while I was gone, I wasn't the only thing sick. The market dilemma has gone even sicker.

The negative impacts that were very much present have accelerated, most notably the faster pace of monetary policy tightening. This week, you had the Fed minutes release indicating that the officials foresee up to three quarter percentage increases in 2022, as well as another three hikes in 2023 and two more the year after. That also announced they will speed up tapering of their monthly bond buying program and that will be finished by March. And market expectations are pricing in that after that program ends in March, you're going to see that first interest rate hike that same very month.

This week, the S P 500 saw some pain, but the tech centric Nasdaq has been getting it the worst. As folks most notably anticipate higher multiple tax stocks are going to get punished more by the Fed. We know this to many, it's simple math: If easy Money policies pumped up Tech, then the reduction in easy Money policy should punish Tech and deflate tech. But what amount does something have to go down for that to be fulfilled? 30, 40, 50 If we have three modest quarter of a percentage point hikes in 2022, a few more in 2023, and one or two in 2024, does that warrant a 50 destruction in certain Tech stock valuations? What about a 60, 70, 80 destruction should price the sales of some of the hottest companies in terms of revenue growth and customer acquisition be bludgeoned down well below levels that we've seen during periods of time where you had much tighter monetary policy than is even going to be reached in the next couple of years.

That's the question that the market is trying to answer right now. And to begin to answer this question, folks like to look at an index tracker of the Nasdaq 100 like Triple Q or the broader Nasdaq index and say, oh, well, damn, it's due for a correction. This has gotten far too out of control. It's a big bubble.

Then of course it's like, well, wait a second. You're really only looking at a few outliers when you're looking at this index. Right when you look at the bigger context, Bloomberg reported just on January 6 that the number of Nasdaq stocks down 50 is almost at a record. In fact, almost 40 percent of the indexes firms have fallen by half from one year highs down 50 percent.

The broader Nasdaq itself dipped about 35 during the covet drop in 2020. Yet today, you have almost half of Nasdaq stocks down 50 from 52 week highs. That's not just a bear market, that's panic level folks. Make no mistake, the market is not surprised that we're having interest rate hikes and may be surprised at the pace of interest rate hikes, but the market has already factored in a dramatic dramatic kill order for tech stocks, especially the ones in the higher multiple Stratosphere, which is the majority of the Nasdaq If you actually look at the numbers here.

Statistically, if you bought a tech stock, obviously, aside from the fangs, it's probably down quite a lot right now in anticipation of what will these raising rate hikes. Obviously, we all know that in the growth tech space especially. I mean, you look at something like an Arc growth fund and you're getting awfully close to the entire index being beaten down 50 already in just the last 11 months. Obviously, a lot of companies in this index are actually doing multiples of 100 plus revenue growth per year.

Sure, some did factor in the moon a little bit too early, but still. I mean, there's definitely a very strange double market condition going on here. You're seeing the dominating narrative that tech stocks deserve to be punished massively and they're garbage. Just because their revenue growth is high, doesn't mean they're good companies.

The narrative goes: you should sell everything because rate hikes mean that tech stocks? Nope. Never coming back. You're getting to the point where again, the market is willing to pay less for revenue than they were willing to do at higher interest rate points years ago. And when talking tech, there's a tale of two markets: Huge, huge exceptions at the top of the ticket, the ones that hold the indices up and hide the majority of Laggers Fang, and a few short lists of others.

For the most part, I'm a big believer in a lot of big tech players over the long run, but we made a case a few weeks ago that you are now paying more for the biggest tech companies than you ever have before. The market has gutted most of the Nasdaq and plowed into a few top players instead, Nasdaq. It's not necessarily that these companies aren't going to grow into their valuations, they very well will over the upcoming five to ten years, but if you're talking about rising rates going and punishing tech, you've got to be really honest about which areas haven't been punished yet, and where the real opportunities are here in terms of discount valuations. Most of the Nasdaq is already in a deep, deep bear market during the dot-com Bubble growth stock.

At the time, Amazon went from the split adjusted price at 112 to just over six dollars, and if you read over analysis reports at that time, many argued that despite the company's quarter over quarter dramatic revenue growth, customer acquisition, and growth opportunities in different segments, that, hey, being a tech stock at six dollars, it was still way too overvalued. Too much to pay. Don't you know that we just popped a bubble? Tech euphoria is people buying tech stocks regardless of the numbers they are reporting. But the opposite or what they want you to think is the opposite.

Tech dysphoria is eerily similar. people selling and hating tech stocks regardless of what the companies are reporting. Neither makes sense. It doesn't make sense to love companies regardless of what the company's reporting, and it doesn't make sense to hate companies regardless of what the companies are reporting, One results in stocks becoming way too overvalued, the other way too undervalued.

Yet, the market likes to flex from one direction to the other, and it likes to remind you in each cycle not to question the numbers because the numbers don't matter. It's all about how the market feels in the moment, how the monetary policy is affecting that company in the moment. Just make sure that you're selling at a massive loss when it shifts in the other direction. Don't think for yourself, don't match the actual company to the actual numbers.

Now, I'm not saying that you're going to find the next Amazon or that we're in a dot-com bubble style crash. But what I am saying is that people don't like to question when stocks are on to new and new highs in a momentum cycle. And people don't like to question when stocks are into lower and lower lows in a dysphoric cycle. They just assume that those stocks deserve whatever they're getting.

But the problem is, while certain cycles can stretch on, they don't stretch on forever. And if you're not very, very careful at making sure that you understand the broader context of what is happening, you might miss a very big opportunity. Perhaps Inflationary pressures continue to be stubborn for another quarter or two, and public pressure induced by said stubborn inflation continue to push the Fed on this trajectory of preempting more inflationary pressures. But eventually those supply chain issues start easing.

A lot of these numbers that we're already starting to see. change start well, accelerating, and all of a sudden, you get to this point where inflationary growth starts trending back to a normal and more healthy range. At that point, you get to this inevitable conclusion where the market's looking at it and they're looking at the Fed's trajectory and they're like, well, we already priced it everything the Fed did if they didn't overdo it. And if you're looking for companies that are actually reporting huge revenue growth, if you're looking for companies that are actually providing value for your dollar, well, maybe the capital starts pouring back into some of those sectors that have been beat down 30, 40, 50, 60, or 70 percent.

So what am I saying folks? Well, if you have a high conviction company that is down 30 plus or more from all-time highs specifically because of interest rate hike fears, while also having insane quarter over quarter growth, insane potential in its industry and overall a much higher price target in your own view, then I would not think twice before considering a dip. Buy on it. Oh, it could be a triple layer dip. Okay, but can you control the pace of monetary policy tightening? Can you control whether inflation is going to get out of control to a much more extreme extent or not? No, you can't.

A lot of the stocks in the Nasdaq that are down, say 50 percent aren't doing 50 less in terms of revenue. In fact, it's usually the opposite. Most of them are continuing to expand exponentially In terms of business model. A lot of the tech stocks are doing better and better quarter over quarter, but are doing worse and worse because of this whole tech crunch.

So if you're seeing stocks like that and you have ones that you believe are a good deal, now, start thinking about Dip buying them at the end of the day. You never know how long a tech crunch is going to go on. But when you're getting to the point where you've seen such huge dysphoria, it's time to start thinking about your highest conviction stocks. Okay, next, what to get ready for this week? So this is our first week of the year where we start getting some notable earnings.

Monday you have Tilray representing the Mj sector, Thursday you have Delta representing the airline industry, and on Friday you start getting a lot of banking capital market reporting. We have Jp, Morgan, City Group, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, and First Republic reporting this week. On Friday. The week after that, you're going to have Schwa, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and a number of smaller banks reporting as well.

Remember, the financial sector, especially banks and capital markets have done really well and outperformed the rest of the market. This first week of 2022, higher rates have obviously been seen as a positive for lenders make sense, but come earnings and especially guidance, you'll start getting the banks themselves giving a more in-depth image of how this new environment is going to impact their bottom line. and we'll get a lot of clarification on market condition and economy as a whole from these guidance sets. Next, Dwack and Trump stock.

So Dwack pumped hard on Thursday in the after hours as they set a target launch date for their app, which is apparently February 21st. Fun also pumped, showing sympathy rallies are alive and well. My take is that in terms of trading potential, these are worth watching for more catalyst drops, but most reliably, I believe they'll have some pre-anticipatory style opportunities ahead of that February 21st release date. Now, February 21st is a Monday and that Monday is a Federal Holiday President's Day, which I guess is why they chose to release Trump's app on that day.

But the point is, the market will be closed on that day. So the week ahead of that is going to be the big pre-anticipatory run week, and I expect this app to get a lot of attention whether you like the guy or not. Certainly a lot of high potential around his app, and we've seen that to be true with Dwack in the past. This is going to be the biggest catalyst, yet honestly, I'm not going to make an argument for the value of the actual company itself.

I feel like it could really go anywhere, and we haven't had enough specifics in terms of what this app is going to look like. Or do I care to put price targets on more politically charged stocks, but at the same time. but at the same time in terms of a high potential trading potential, That is what my thought process is for pre-anticipatory runs that week before. Okay, next, Lucid.

Lovely. Lucid said this past week that they plan to enter European markets this year. That's a big, stinking deal. This is in addition to an expected entrance into the Middle East this year and China in 2023 as well.

Lucid's also been in the process of scaling production in the Us and their deliveries are said to hit expectations. Now, Lucid stock has been reacted fairly well to all this news. But in addition to the good news, we do have a deprecating factor, which I do want you to be aware of. Be aware that on January 19th, the company's lock period expires.

We've already had one share lock-up period expire back in September, and that resulted in a dumping of Lucid shares. This time, you should see a similar sort of trading activity after a lock-up period. Of course, early investors are able to offload shares, and they tend to do it on the first day of said lockup. Purity and other investors tend to preemptively sell in anticipation of that.

Obviously, long-term holders aren't really worried about that, but there's a lot of hedge funds that like to trade these types of growth stock, so at the end of the day it is something to be aware of if you are trading in on more of a short term basis or if you're looking to lock in profits. My personal Price Target: You could see all my price targets in Ziptrader You, but my personal price target on this is 45. That's about the price. Where I see is the fair value.

With it trading very, very close to that fair value. Obviously, I can't make an argument that Lucid is an insane deal right now and I wouldn't be surprised if investors that are locked up in this decide to take some profits on it. Early stage Ev companies are going to hit a lot of early stage challenges and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of them make the calculus that hey, we're going to have some periods of challenges this year where we're going to have some bad press releases and some of the more paper handy investors we're going to sell and pad Excel on the first sign of inevitable problems rolling out deliveries. I wouldn't be surprised if they decided to take the profits before that happens.

Anyways, that's my thought process on the overall market and things to get ready for approaching this week. I hope this video is valuable for you and make sure to hit that ravishing like button and also subscribe as well if it was. If you'd like to learn how to trade with our step-by-step lessons, our private chat, our daily morning briefings as well as of course our full price target list, I will put a link to Zip Trader you below coupon code goodbye 2021 is still active for a short amount of time, so if you do want a sizeable discount ooh my voice is getting kind of nasally. But if you would like a sizeable discount before checkout, make sure to type in that coupon code and it will apply it when you hit that apply button before checkout.

Anyways, folks that caps off the video have a good one. I'll see you in the next video.